Hitting time statistics and extreme value theory

We consider discrete time dynamical systems and show the link between Hitting Time Statistics (the distribution of the first time points land in asymptotically small sets) and Extreme Value Theory (distribution properties of the partial maximum of stochastic processes). This relation allows to study Hitting Time Statistics with tools from Extreme Value Theory, and vice versa. We apply these results to non-uniformly hyperbolic systems and prove that a multimodal map with an absolutely continuous invariant measure must satisfy the classical extreme value laws (with no extra condition on the speed of mixing, for example). We also give applications of our theory to higher dimensional examples, for which we also obtain classical extreme value laws and exponential hitting time statistics (for balls). We extend these ideas to the subsequent returns to asymptotically small sets, linking the Poisson statistics of both processes.     

Double-thresholded estimator of extreme value index

The purpose of this Note is to propose an estimator of the extreme value index constructed by using only the number of points exceeding random thresholds. We prove the weak consistency and the asymptotic normality of this estimator. We deduce from this last result that the rate of convergence of our estimator is in a power of the sample size. To our knowledge, this rate of convergence is not reached by any other estimate of the extreme value index. Through a simulation, we compare our estimator to the moment estimator (Dekkers et al., Ann. Statist. 17 (1989) 1833–1855). To cite this article: L. Gardes, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 337 (2003).     

From extended regular variation to regular variation with application in extreme value statistics

This paper aims to provide a study of a variety of concepts involving power behavior of eventually positive functions which, falling under the umbrella of the Theory of Regular Variation and its second order refinements, are prone to application in Extreme Value Theory. To this extent, some well-known properties shall be resumed, others will be designed with the ultimate purpose of establishing a relation between regular variation and extended regular variation of second order. As a by-product, new ways of looking at some common estimators for the extreme value index, in particular the maximum likelihood estimator, will be unveiled.     

Some aspects of extreme value statistics under serial dependence

On the occasion of Laurens de Haan’s 70th birthday, we discuss two aspects of the statistical inference on the extreme value behavior of time series with a particular emphasis on his important contributions. First, the performance of a direct marginal tail analysis is compared with that of a model-based approach using an analysis of residuals. Second, the importance of the extremal index as a measure of the serial extremal dependence is discussed by the example of solutions of a stochastic recurrence equation.      

The combinatorics and extreme value statistics of protein threading

In protein threading, one is given a protein sequence, together with a database of protein core structures that may contain the natural structure of the sequence. The object of protein threading is to correctly identify the structure(s) corresponding to the sequence. Since the core structures are already associated with specific biological functions, threading has the potential to provide biologists with useful insights about the function of a newly discovered protein sequence. Statistical tests for threading results based on the theory of extreme values suggest several combinatorial problems. For example, what is the number of waysm′=# _t {L _i >x _i } _i ⁼⁰ⁿ of choosing a sequence {X _i } _i ⁼¹ⁿ from the set {1, 2, ...,t}, subject to the difference constraints {L _i =X _i+1?X _i >x _i } _i ⁼⁰ⁿ , whereX ₀=0,X _n+1=t+1, and {x _i } _i ⁼⁰ⁿ is an arbitrary sequence of integers? The quantitym′ has many attractive combinatorial interpretations and reduces in special continuous limits to a probabilistic formula discovered by the Finetti. Just as many important probabilities can be derived from de Finetti's formula, many interesting combinatorial quantities can be derived fromm′. Empirical results presented here show that the combinatorial approach to threading statistics appears promising, but that structural periodicities in proteins and energetically unimportant structure elements probably introduce statistical correlations that must be better understood.     

Multivariate moment based extreme value index estimators

Modeling extreme events is of paramount importance in various areas of science—biostatistics, climatology, finance, geology, and telecommunications, to name a few. Most of these application areas involve multivariate data. Estimation of the extreme value index plays a crucial role in modeling rare events. There is an affine invariant multivariate generalization of the well known Hill estimator—the separating Hill estimator. However, the Hill estimator is only suitable for heavy tailed distributions. As in the case of the separating multivariate Hill estimator, we consider estimation of the extreme value index under the assumptions of multivariate ellipticity and independent identically distributed observations. We provide affine invariant multivariate generalizations of the moment estimator and the mixed moment estimator. These estimators are suitable for both light and heavy tailed distributions. Asymptotic properties of the new extreme value index estimators are derived under multivariate elliptical distribution with known location and scatter. The effect of replacing true location and scatter by estimates is examined in a thorough simulation study. We also consider two data examples: one financial application and one meteorological application.     

Sources of uncertainty in the extreme value statistics of climate data

We investigate three sources of uncertainty in the calculation of extreme value statistics for observed and modeled climate data. Inter-model differences in formulation, unforced internal variability and choice of statistical model all contribute to uncertainty. Using fits to the GEV distribution to obtain 20 year return values, we quantify these uncertainties for the annual maximum daily mean surface air temperatures of pre-industrial control runs from 15 climate models in the CMIP3 dataset.     

A two-step estimator of the extreme value index

In this paper, we build a two-step estimator , which satisfies , where is the well-known maximum likelihood estimator of the extreme value index. Since the two-step estimator can be calculated easily as a function of the observations, it is much simpler to use in practice. By properly choosing the first step estimator, such as the Pickands estimator, we can even get a shift and scale invariant estimator with the above property. The author thanks Laurens de Haan for motivating this work and giving helpful comments. The author also thanks two anonymous referees for their useful comments.     

Estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles under random censoring

In this paper, we consider the estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles in the presence of random right censoring. The generalization of the peaks over threshold method is discussed and an adaptation of the moment estimator is proposed. The corresponding extreme quantile estimators are also introduced. We make a start with the analysis of the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator and the corresponding extreme quantile estimator. The finite sample behaviour is illustrated with a small simulation study and through practical examples from survival data analysis.      

Probability plots and order statistics of the standard extreme value distribution

A comparison between the ordinary least-squares estimator and the weighted least-squares estimator when the data set arises from the standard extreme value distribution is provided. Probability plot of the extreme value distribution is applied. A goodness-of-fit test of the standard extreme value distribution is introduced. The percentage points of the test statistic are investigated. The results of power study for the test statistic under various alternatives show that in most situations the proposed test statistic serves as well as do competing alternatives.     

Comparing extreme models when the sign of the extreme value index is known

In the literature on analyzing extremes, both generalized Pareto distributions and Pareto distributions are employed to infer the tail of a distribution with a known positive extreme value index. Similar studies exist for a known negative extreme value index. Intuitively, one should not employ the generalized Pareto distribution in the case of knowing the sign of the extreme value index. In this work, we show that fitting a generalized Pareto distribution is equivalent to the model in Hall (1982) in the case of a negative extreme value index, in both improving the rate of convergence and including the bias term of the asymptotic results of that reference. When the extreme value index is known to be positive, we show that fitting a generalized Pareto distribution may be preferred in some cases determined by a so-called second-order parameter and the extreme value index itself.     

Tail product-limit process for truncated data with application to extreme value index estimation

A weighted Gaussian approximation to tail product-limit process for Pareto-like distributions of randomly right-truncated data is provided and a new consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the extreme value index is introduced. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the finite sample behavior of the proposed estimator and compare it to that recently proposed by Gardes and Stupfler (TEST 24, 207–227, 2015). Also, a new approach of estimating extreme quantiles, under random right truncation, is derived and applied to a real dataset of lifetimes of automobile brake pads.     

The extent of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index

In extreme value analysis, staring from Smith (1987) [1], the maximum likelihood procedure is applied in estimating the shape parameter of tails—the extreme value index γ. For its theoretical properties, Zhou (2009) [12] proved that the maximum likelihood estimator eventually exists and is consistent for γ>−1 under the first order condition. The combination of Zhou (2009) [12] and Drees et al (2004) [11] provides the asymptotic normality under the second order condition for γ>−1/2. This paper proves the asymptotic normality for −1<γ≤−1/2 and the non-consistency for γ<−1. These results close the discussion on the theoretical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Reduced‐bias kernel estimators of a positive extreme value index

In this paper, we deal with the semi‐parametric estimation of the extreme value index, an important parameter in extreme value analysis. It is well known that many classic estimators, such as the Hill estimator, reveal a strong bias. This problem motivated the study of two classes of kernel estimators. Those classes generalize the classical Hill estimator and have a tuning parameter that enables us to modify the asymptotic mean squared error and eventually to improve their efficiency. Since the improvement in efficiency is not very expressive, we also study new reduced bias estimators based on the two classes of kernel statistics. Under suitable conditions, we prove their asymptotic normality. Moreover, an asymptotic comparison, at optimal levels, shows that the new classes of reduced bias estimators are more efficient than other reduced bias estimator from the literature. An illustration of the finite sample behaviour of the kernel reduced‐bias estimators is also provided through the analysis of a data set in the field of insurance.     

Two-dimensional Banach spaces with polynomial numerical index zero

We study two-dimensional Banach spaces with polynomial numerical indices equal to zero.     

Properties of Hill’s estimator of extreme value index for impure samples

The consistency and asymptotic normality of the Hill estimator of the extreme value index is considered for a sample from a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with asymptotically increasing additive impurity. In addition, the cases when the statistical construction of the estimator is possible are analyzed.     

Existence and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index

The paper is about the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index. Under the second order condition, Drees et al. [H. Drees, A. Ferreira, L. de Haan, On maximum likelihood estimation of the extreme value index, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 1179-1201] proved asymptotic normality for any solution of the likelihood equations (with shape parameter γ>−1/2) that is not too far off the real value. But they did not prove that there is a solution of the equations satisfying the restrictions.In this paper, the existence is proved, even for γ>−1. The proof just uses the domain of attraction condition (first order condition), not the second order condition. It is also proved that the estimator is consistent. When the second order condition is valid, following the current proof, the existence of a solution satisfying the restrictions in the above-cited reference is a direct consequence.