Multi-criteria analysis and the resolution of sustainable development dilemmas: A stakeholder management approach

We demonstrate that stakeholder-oriented multi-criteria analysis (MCA) can adequately address a variety of sustainable development dilemmas in decision-making, especially when applied to complex project evaluations involving multiple objectives and multiple stakeholder groups. Such evaluations are typically geared towards satisfying simultaneously private economic goals, broader social objectives and environmental targets. We show that, under specific conditions, a variety of stakeholder-oriented MCA approaches may be able to contribute substantively to the resolution or improved governance of societal conflicts and the pursuit of the public good in the form of sustainable development. We contrast the potential usefulness of these stakeholder-oriented approaches – in terms of their ability to contribute to sustainable development – with more conventional MCA approaches and social cost–benefit analysis.     

Environmental decision‐making using Bayesian networks: creating an environmental report card

Environmental report cards are popular mechanisms for summarising the overall status of an environmental system of interest. This paper describes the development of such a report card in the context of a study for Gladstone Harbour in Queensland, Australia. The harbour is within the World Heritage‐protected Great Barrier Reef and is the location of major industrial development, hence the interest in developing a way of reporting its health in a statistically valid, transparent and sustainable manner. A Bayesian network (BN) approach was used because of its ability to aggregate and integrate different sources of information, provide probabilistic estimates of interest and update these estimates in a natural manner as new information becomes available. BN modelling is an iterative process, and in the context of environmental reporting, this is appealing as model development can be initiated while quantitative knowledge is still under development, and subsequently refined as more knowledge becomes available. Moreover, the BN model helps build the maturity of the quantitative information needed and helps target investment in monitoring and/or process modelling activities to inform the approach taken. The model is able to incorporate spatial and temporal information and may be structured in such a way that new indicators of relevance to the underlying environmental gradient being monitored may replace less informative indicators or be added to the model with minimal effort. The model described here focuses on the environmental component, but has the capacity to also incorporate social, cultural and economic components of the Gladstone Harbour Report Card. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated dynamic model for economic development and natural environment: An application to the Greek Sporades Islands

This paper presents a modelling study on regional sustainable development. First, the use of formal modelling for studying the multi-level relationship between economic, environmental and development processes is discussed. Such a relationship is analyzed for an island region in Greece. A potential conflict exists here between environmental conservation, local interests and rapid growth in tourism. A dynamic model is used to depict the development of the economies of three main islands and their interactions with the terrestrial and marine environment. The presentation of the case study model is followed by a discussion of scenarios, indicators and simulation results.This study was supported by the Foundation for Advancement of Economic Research (Ecozoek), which resorts under the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (N.W.O.), Project No. 450-230-007.     

Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) problems are often characterised by a large number of identified environmental factors that are qualitative in nature and can only be assessed on the basis of human judgments, which inevitably involve various types of uncertainties such as ignorance and fuzziness. So, EIA problems need to be modelled and analysed using methods that can handle uncertainties. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach provides such a modelling framework and analysis method. In this paper the ER approach will be applied to conduct EIA analysis for the first time. The environmental impact consequences are characterized by a set of assessment grades that are assumed to be collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive. All assessment information, quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise, is modelled using a unified framework of a belief structure. The original ER approach with a recursive ER algorithm will be introduced and a new analytical ER algorithm will be investigated which provides a means for using the ER approach in decision situations where an explicit ER aggregation function is needed such as in optimisation problems. The ER approach will be used to aggregate multiple environmental factors, resulting in an aggregated distributed assessment for each alternative policy. A numerical example and its modified version are studied to illustrate the detailed implementation process of the ER approach and demonstrate its potential applications in EIA.     

Multi-perspective modelling of complex phenomena

This conceptual paper discusses the limitations of a single-perspective hierarchical approach to modelling and proposes multi-perspective modelling as a way to overcome them. As it turns out, multi-perspective modelling is primarily a new methodology, using existing modelling techniques but extending the modelling hierarchy with a new epistemological level which integrates the different perspectives. The methodology will be presented in some detail, and its use will be demonstrated by analyzing an example taken from a socio-political context.     

我国民办高校可持续发展的数量分析

民办高校作为我国高等教育的一种新的办学模式，对于教育供给不足的我国，这种新的办学模式的出现，将给我国高等教育带来积极影响。然而，对于刚刚起步的民办高等教育，由于办学和管理经验不足，仍存在一些制约其持续发展的不利因素。据此，本运用数量分析方法来探讨民办高校可持续发展的对策。全分四部分，在第二部分探讨民办高校办学、学生进民办高校学习的优化目标模型分析，进而比较两优化解的差异及经济意义。在第三部分中，本运用均衡分析理论来论述不同素质学生的就业与民办高校科学管理的关系，并导出现行民办高校的宽出政策的危害性。最后，本围绕实现我国民办高校可持续发展问题提出四方面对策建议。     

Modelling the sustainability of mass tourism in island tourist economies

Tourism is one of the world's largest industries and is a source of jobs across national and regional economies. Assessing the economic, environmental and social impacts of tourism development has become a major activity within the tourism and sustainable development communities. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate the contribution of system dynamics for analysing policies that can not only promote sustainable tourism development, but also act as a warning signal to the industry about the potential negative consequences of uncontrolled growth of mass tourism, particularly in island tourist economies. Previous research in the tourism sector has been fragmented, when a holistic approach is needed in order to try to coerce some alignment in the views of the various stakeholders. The main research results illustrated in this paper are: a generic model of a tourism system informed by the (mainly) South European island tourist economies and a set of scenarios illustrating examples of policy analysis. The generic model and the modelling process developed in this research will have some transferability to other issues concerned with policymaking for sustainable development.     

Energy-economy models: A survey

In the turbulent environment that is now surrounding us, it has become obvious that the energy system cannot be treated in isolation, but within the context of a broader system which is the economy. Energy-economy models have thus attracted the attention of energy policy analysts, particularly in the last five years. This paper presents a critical review of some of the more recent models, and draws some conclusions on the actual and potential contribution of energy modelling in energy policy formulation. The first part of the paper presents a conceptual framework for energy-economy interactions. The process is described and key parameters are identified. The second part, after describing the general structure of energy-economy models and highlighting the basic structural components, reviews some representative models. The third part analyses the deficiencies of the models as forecasting devices and stresses their merits as tools for analysis in the energy policy formulation process.     

Multi-criteria decision aid for the formulation of sustainable technological energy priorities using linguistic variables

Implementation of new and innovative energy technologies is a key mean towards a sustainable energy system. Currently, governments have to decide from an increasingly diverse mix of them, the ones which warrant support, including funding and other incentives for private sector efforts. However, appraising energy technologies in terms of their sustainability is a really complex task, considering the series of uncertainties and implications that have to be encountered so as to obtain realistic and transparent results. In this context, the main aim of this paper is to present a direct and flexible multi-criteria decision making approach, using linguistic variables, to assist policy makers in formulating sustainable technological energy priorities. Furthermore, its software realization will be applied to a number of technologies, in the context of the Greek Technology Foresight Programme, and the results will be presented and discussed.     

A multiple criteria decision making approach to manure management systems in the Netherlands

The intensification of livestock operations in the last few decades has resulted in an increased social concern over the environmental impacts of livestock operations and thus making appropriate manure management decisions increasingly important. A socially acceptable manure management system that simultaneously achieves the pressing environmental objectives while balancing the socio-economic welfare of farmers and society at large is needed. Manure management decisions involve a number of decision makers with different and conflicting views of what is acceptable in the context of sustainable development. This paper developed a decision-making tool based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approach to address the manure management problems in the Netherlands. This paper has demonstrated the application of compromise programming and goal programming to evaluate key trade-offs between socio-economic benefits and environmental sustainability of manure management systems while taking decision makers’ conflicting views of the different criteria into account. The proposed methodology is a useful tool in assisting decision makers and policy makers in designing policies that enhance the introduction of economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manure management systems.     

Technological externalities and environmental policy

The directional distance function defined in a DEA type non-parametric framework provides a highly flexible structure for modelling producer behaviour in the presence of polluting emissions and environmental regulations. This article presents five models describing different “command and control” type policy measures as an economic one about nitrogen pollution of agricultural origin. These measures concern the management of the mandatory constraint on the spreading of organic manure and the investment in manure treatment facilities. The study also simulates the use of an economic instrument by enforcing the individual manure constraint at an aggregated level. Using individual and aggregated DEA models, this paper provides insights into the impact of individual and collective management of environmental policy instruments.     

On the application of mathematical models in maintenance

This paper may be seen as an appeal to maintenance modellers to work with maintenance engineers and managers on real problems. Such collaboration is essential if maintenance modelling is to be accepted within the engineering community. It is also particularly important in the design and building of maintenance management information systems if such systems are to be used to manage and operate maintenance policy in the new millennium. In this context, developing areas of maintenance modelling are discussed, namely: inspection maintenance; condition based maintenance; maintenance for multi-component systems; and maintenance management information systems. Some new models relating to capital replacement are also considered. Thus, we are concerned with the mathematical modelling of maintenance rather than with management processes relating to maintenance. Discussion of maintenance management information systems is included because of their importance in providing data for mathematical modelling and in implementing model-based maintenance policy.     

Stochastic modelling and optimization for environmental management

In modelling and managing complex environmental systems, inherent uncertainties of all relevant natural processes are to be taken into consideration. In the present paper diverse stochastic modelling and optimization approaches for handling such problems (primarily in the field of water quality analysis and control) are highlighted, drawing on the findings of case studies and real-world applications.     

图模型及其在统计建模中的应用

图模型是近年来兴起的一个新的统计研究方向,主要借助拓扑图的直观形式对多维概率分布进行统计推断和因果分析。本文对图模型的基本概念、原理、建模及应用进行了简单介绍。     

Modeling sustainability transitions on complex networks

There has been renewed interest in sociotechnical systems in the context of transitioning to a more sustainable society. While gains have been made in the qualitative understanding of sustainable transitions and sociotechnical systems, these approaches have not been well‐operationalized. Given the importance of meeting future energy and environmental policy targets, there is need to develop predictive techniques and more robust methods to quantify and analyze sociotechnical systems undergoing rapid change and uncertainty due to sustainability pressures. Sustainability transitions depend on large‐scale diffusion of technological and behavioral innovations on physical and virtual networked systems. Transitions can therefore be viewed as a subclass of diffusion phenomenon and subject to a range of mathematical and computational methods. We review, categorize, and critically assess methodological and theoretical approaches that integrate different aspects of sustainability, innovation, and complexity. We argue that these approaches should be adapted to improve our understanding of the behavior and dynamics of a broad range of sociotechnical systems to meet sustainability objectives. We therefore also make the conceptual link between complexity and sustainability as complimentary fields of research to inform policy and decision making to achieve more sustainable outcomes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 8–22, 2014     

MULTIQ: A Queueing Model for FMSs with Several Pallet Types

Analytical modelling of the work flow through flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs), based on closed queueing network models, has been successfully applied to the early stages of design and analysis of FMSs. This paper describes the advantages of using multiple job-class closed queueing networks for modelling realistic situations occurring in FMSs. The general modelling of FMSs by closed queueing networks is first reviewed. The way Solberg's CAN-Q—a single job-class queueing-based package—deals with several part types is clarified. A new model called MULTIQ, allowing multiple pallet types, each of which is used by several part types, is proposed. Results are derived using the data from an existing FMS. The use of the MULTIQ model for optimization purposes is suggested by some examples.     

Use of modelling to inform public health policy: a case study on the blood-borne transmission of variant-CJD

Since the identification of variant Creutzfeldt–Jacob Disease in the late 1980s, the possibility that this disease might be passed on via blood transfusion has presented challenging policy questions for Government and blood services in the UK. This paper discusses the use of mathematical modelling to inform policy in this area of health protection. We focus on the use of a relatively simple analytical model to explore how many such infections might eventually be expected to result in clinical cases under a range of alternative scenarios of interest to policy, and on the potential impact of possible additional counter measures. We comment on the value of triangulating between findings generated using distinct modelling approaches and observational data.     

Towards effective visual analytics on multiplex and multilayer networks

In this article we discuss visualisation strategies for multiplex networks. Since Moreno’s early works on network analysis, visualisation has been one of the main ways to understand networks thanks to its ability to summarise a complex structure into a single representation highlighting multiple properties of the data. However, despite the large renewed interest in the analysis of multiplex networks, no study has proposed specialised visualisation approaches for this context and traditional methods are typically applied instead. In this paper we initiate a critical and structured discussion of this topic, and claim that the development of specific visualisation methods for multiplex networks will be one of the main drivers pushing current research results into daily practice.     

An evaluation of technical efficiency and managerial correlates of solid waste management by Welsh SMEs using parametric and non-parametric techniques

Strong economic growth and environmental regulation stimulus make Welsh small and medium enterprises' (SMEs) sustainability performance merit investigation in the context of European Union (EU) sustainability initiatives. This is due in part to strong economic growth and the stimulus provided by environmental regulation. We use stochastic frontier analysis, a parametric econometric technique to generate estimates of the technical efficiency of solid waste management by 299 Welsh SMEs in 2003. We demonstrate that the ranking and efficiency scores of the Welsh SMEs studied correlate significantly with non-parametric data envelopment analysis efficiency measures and are related to the use of environmental auditing practices and the use of local business support groups, but not to monitoring of waste expenditures and publication of environmental policies.     

基于产品可持续制造过程的多目标决策

研究产品制造过程对经济、环境和社会的影响,使其具有可持续性。以资源约束为主线,考虑产品制造过程中可回收利用材料的使用比例,结合制造过程中安排操作工人的人数,综合优化产品制造过程的生产成本、排放物及单位工人的工作量。建立多目标优化模型,设计专门的非支配遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ),获得全局的Pareto最优解集。通过敏感性分析,获得模型中权重系数的合理取值,以及操作工人、可回收利用材料、原始材料的单位成本对模型结果的影响,可以使决策者在制定产品的可持续制造决策时有所依据。文中通过定量分析的方法,对可持续制造的决策理论进行了深入研究。