Energy models for decision making

Since the 1973 oil crisis there has been an explosion in energy modelling activities throughout the world. A bewildering array of models have been or are being developed. The models differ in their geographical scope (local, national, regional or global), their technical scope (a process, an industry, an energy source or all energy industries), their timescale (one to one hundred years) and their systems boundaries (energy, economy, society). In addition there are crucial differences in the level of detail modelled, in the way time is structured and in the way in which decisions are included or perhaps excluded from the model.The natural questions to ask are what sort of models are now available; which models are suitable for which purposes; what has been learnt so far; which are the promising directions for future developments? This paper draws on modelling experience both within the National Coal Board and elsewhere to discuss these questions. The paper contains the following sections: energy models and decision making processes; choosing model boundaries; logic and facts, the basis of the model; choice of energy model; links to the economy; future directions. The subject will be of interest to specialist energy modellers and those interested more generally in strategic modelling for government and industry.     

Self-consistency of decision rules for group decision making

The author treats, in this paper, a group of decision makers, where each of them already has preference on a given set of alternatives but the group as a whole does not have a decision rule to make their group decision, yet. Then, the author examines which decision rules are appropriate. As a criterion of “appropriateness” the author proposes the concepts of self-consistency and universal self-consistency of decision rules. Examining the existence of universally self-consistent decision rules in two cases: (1) decision situations with three decision makers and two alternatives, and (2) those with three decision makers and three alternatives, the author has found that all decision rules are universally self-consistent in the case (1), whereas all universally self-consistent decision rules have one and just one vetoer in the essential cases in (2). The result in the case (2) implies incompatibility of universal self-consistency with symmetry. An example of applications of the concept of self-consistency to a bankruptcy problem is also provided in this paper, where compatibility of self-consistency with symmetry in a particular decision situation is shown.     

Board wargames for decision making research

This paper discusses some aspects of a game for research into decision making. From our experience with commercial board wargames, we identify six requirements for a research game, and three requirements for its control. The Organisational Control Game, a wargame which we have developed, is shown to satisfy the requirements. The Superior Commander system is used to control the game, and the importance of the dummy task is discussed. We conclude that commercial board wargames can be adapted to examine decision making scientifically, we offer some guidelines for game development, and we consider extensions to other contexts, particularly those related to business games.     

Microscopic modeling and analysis of collective decision making: equality bias leads suboptimal solutions

We discuss a novel microscopic model for collective decision-making interacting multi-agent systems. In particular we are interested in modeling a well known phenomena in the experimental literature called equality bias, where agents tend to behave in the same way as if they were as good, or as bad, as their partner. We analyze the introduced problem and we prove the suboptimality of the collective decision-making in the presence of equality bias. Numerical experiments are addressed in the last section.     

Evaluating and modelling constructs for e-government decision making

It is now becoming increasingly well understood that the investment andevaluation of electronic government projects is determinant on a number oforganisational, policymaking and decision-making factors, which are determiningthe success or failure of such endeavours. Given the increasing interest in themanner and methods by which public sector projects are implemented as well asevaluated, this paper attempts to synergise contemporary e-government projectmanagement (PM) components and synthesise these with extant principles ofinformation systems evaluation. This is carried out in order to model andunderstand the underlying constructs and determinants of decision-making andoperational dynamics within an electronic government case study. The authorsseek to advance and apply the cognitive mapping technique of Fuzzy CognitiveMapping (FCM), through the use of an interpretivist, empirical enquiry techniquethat is melded with an exploratory simulation of the key factors involved ine-government PM issues. The FCM allows the identification of theinter-relationships within this context and provides a basis for identifyingthose constructs of PM that drive the case study decision-making agenda.Correlative relationships are also highlighted alongside causalinter-relationships among the dynamic interacting nodes of the digraphrepresentation, to fully explore the schema of project evaluation ine-government.     

Models for collective decision making in industry

When actions are taken by individual managers within a firm to enhance certain performance criteria they may be found to have an adverse effect on other criteria. Changes in pricing policies and promotional activity, modifications in product design, increased mechanisation of production processes or operations, etc., are just examples of actions which in general do not have equally desirable consequences on the most commonly pursued objectives within the company, such as that of reducing unit costs, or those of increasing turnover, market share, profit levels and return on capital employed.In this paper simple models are developed and analysed, each enabling the user to assess explicitly the effects on the unit cost; the revenue and the profit of combined changes imposed on the system by management decisions or by external factors. It is suggested that these models be used as a basis for discussion by the managers involved with a view to reaching a consensus as to the desirable decisions that should be taken.     

General communication schemes for multiobjective decision making

In this paper four general communication schemes for multiobjective decision making are presented. The procedures are completely general and make no presumptions about linearity or convexity. Nevertheless, improving bounds on the optimal value are available in each iterative step. Hereby, the procedures model the essential judgements to make and the necessary information to exchange between the decision maker and an analyst in order to make the communication progress. The procedures provide valuable theoretical insight. They also supply a framework for synthesizing known and developing new procedures.     

A mathematical basis for satisficing decision making

This paper presents a conceptual and mathematical model of the process of satisficing decision making under multiple objectives in which the information about decision maker's preferences is expressed in the form of aspiration levels. The mathematical concept of a value (utility) function is modified to describe satisficing behavior; the modified value function (achievement scalarizing function) should possess the properties of order preservation and order approximation. It is shown that the mathematical basis formed using aspiration levels and achievement scalarizing functions can be used not only for satisficing decision making but also for Pareto optimization, and thus provides an alternative to approaches based on weighting coefficients or typical value functions. This mathematical basis, which can also be regarded as a generalization of the goal programming approach in multiobjective optimization, suggests pragmatic approaches to many problems in multiobjective analysis.     

An interactive approach for multiobjective decision making

We develop an interactive approach for multiobjective decision-making problems, where the solution space is defined by a set of constraints. We first reduce the solution space by eliminating some undesirable regions. We generate solutions (partition ideals) that dominate portions of the efficient frontier and the decision maker (DM) compares these with feasible solutions. Whenever the decision maker prefers a feasible solution, we eliminate the region dominated by the partition ideal. We then employ an interactive search method on the reduced solution space to help the DM further converge toward a highly preferred solution. We demonstrate our approach and discuss some variations.     

Graph-based multi-agent decision making

In lots of practical multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems, there exist various and changeable relations among the criteria which cannot be handled well by means of the existing methods. Considering that graphic or netlike structures can be used to describe the relationships among several individuals, we first introduce the graphic structure into MCDM and formalize the relations among criteria. Then, we develop a new tool, called graph-based multi-agent decision making (GMADM) model, to deal with a kind of MCDM problems with the interrelated criteria. In the model, the graphic structure is paid sufficient attention to in two main aspects: (1) how the graphic structure has influence on the benefits of agents (or the criteria values); and (2) the relation between the graphic structure and the importance weights of agents (criteria). In this case, we can select the best plan(s) (or alternative(s)) according to the overall benefits (the overall criteria values) resulting from the model. Moreover, a fuzzy graph-based multi-agent decision making (FGMADM) method is developed to solve a common kind of situations where the graphic structure of agents is uncertain (confidential or false). Three examples are used to illustrate the feasibility of these two developed methods.     

Wisdom,decision support and paradigms of decision making

Many decision support tools have been developed over the last 20 years and, in general, they support what Simon termed substantive rationality. However, such tools are rarely suited to helping people tackle wicked problems, for which a form of procedural rationality is better suited. Procedurally rational approaches have appeared in both management science and computer science, examples being the soft OR approach of cognitive mapping and the design rationale based on IBIS. These approaches are reviewed and the development of Wisdom, a procedurally rational decision support process and accompanying tool, is discussed and evaluated.     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Bayesian enhanced strategic decision making for reliability

Successful strategies for maintenance and replacement require good decisions. We might wish to determine how often to perform preventive maintenance, or the optimal time to replace a system. Alternatively, our interest might be in selecting a threshold to adopt for action under condition monitoring, or in choosing suitable warranty schemes for our products. Stochastic reliability models involving unknown parameters are often used to answer such questions. In common with other problems in operational research, some applications of maintenance and replacement are notorious for their lack of data. We present a general review and some new ideas for improving decisions by adopting Bayesian methodology to allow for the uncertainty of model parameters. These include recommendations for specifying suitable prior distributions using predictive elicitation and simple methods for Bayesian simulation. Practical demonstrations are given to illustrate the potential benefits of this approach.     

Search during decision making

Nearly four hundred non-routine organizational decisions were investigated to discover search approaches––determining the frequency of use and success of each search approach uncovered. A “search approach” is made up of a direction and a means to uncover solution ideas. Direction indicates desired results and it can be either implicit or explicit, with an explicit direction offering either a problem or a goal-like target. Solutions can be uncovered by opportunity, bargaining, and chance as well as by rational approaches. Defining a search approach as a direction coupled with a means of search, search approaches were linked with indicators of success, measured by the decision's adoption, value and timeliness, noting frequency. A rational, goal-directed, search approach was more apt to produce successful outcomes. Bargaining with stakeholders to uncover solutions was always combined some of the search approaches in this study, and this merger improved the prospects of success. Searches with an opportunistic or chance (emergent opportunity) features and rational searches with a problem target were more apt to produce unsuccessful outcomes. The means used to come up with a solution had less bearing on success than did the type of direction, with goal-directed searches leading to the best outcomes. Each search approach is discussed to reveal best practices and to offer suggestions to improve practice.     

Possibilistic sequential decision making

When the information about uncertainty cannot be quantified in a simple, probabilistic way, the topic of possibilistic decision theory is often a natural one to consider. The development of possibilistic decision theory has lead to the proposition a series of possibilistic criteria, namely: optimistic and pessimistic possibilistic qualitative criteria [7], possibilistic likely dominance [2], [9], binary possibilistic utility [11] and possibilistic Choquet integrals [24]. This paper focuses on sequential decision making in possibilistic decision trees. It proposes a theoretical study on the complexity of the problem of finding an optimal strategy depending on the monotonicity property of the optimization criteria – when the criterion is transitive, this property indeed allows a polytime solving of the problem by Dynamic Programming. We show that most possibilistic decision criteria, but possibilistic Choquet integrals, satisfy monotonicity and that the corresponding optimization problems can be solved in polynomial time by Dynamic Programming. Concerning the possibilistic likely dominance criteria which is quasi-transitive but not fully transitive, we propose an extended version of Dynamic Programming which remains polynomial in the size of the decision tree. We also show that for the particular case of possibilistic Choquet integrals, the problem of finding an optimal strategy is NP-hard. It can be solved by a Branch and Bound algorithm. Experiments show that even not necessarily optimal, the strategies built by Dynamic Programming are generally very good.     

Hierarchical multi-objective decision making

This paper proposes a hierarchical procedure for solving decision problems with multiple objectives. The procedure consists of two levels, a top- and a base-level. The main idea is that the top-level only provides general preference information. Taking this information into account the base-level then determines a compromise solution. For a multi-objective linear program it will be shown how such a hierarchical procedure can be structured by deriving weight restrictions from the general preference information of the top-level and by using the interactive MODM procedure of Zionts and Wallenius on the base-level.     

Cost-sensitive learning and decision making revisited

In many real-life decision making situations the default assumption of equal misclassification costs underlying pattern recognition techniques is most likely violated. Then, cost-sensitive learning and decision making bring help for making cost-benefit-wise optimal decisions. This paper brings an up-to-date overview of several methods that aim to make a broad variety of error-based learners cost-sensitive. More specifically, we revisit direct minimum expected cost classification, MetaCost, over- and undersampling, and cost-sensitive boosting.     

Artificial intelligence and human decision making

Decision is obviously related to reasoning. One of the possible definitions of artificial intelligence (AI) refers to cognitive processes and especially to reasoning. Before making any decision, people also reason, it is therefore natural to explore the links between AI and decision making. This paper distinguishes between two aspects of decision making: diagnosis and look-ahead. It is shown that, on the one hand, AI has many relationships with diagnosis (expert systems, case-based reasoning, fuzzy set and rough set theories). On the other hand, AI has not paid enough attention to look-ahead reasoning, whose main components are uncertainty and preferences. These aspects of AI and decision making are reviewed in the paper.