A two-echelon allocation model and the value of information under correlated forecasts and demands

In this article we explore the effects of incorporating forecasts explicitly in a two-echelon allocation model which consists of a central depot and several retailers. In particular, we investigate the possible benefits on the system costs and inventory levels. The depot does not hold any inventory and the demand is observed only at the retailers. Under a general correlated demand-forecast structure we obtain the approximate system-wide order-up-to level and the expected system cost. In order to assess the value of information provided by keeping track of the forecasts, we construct a comparable inventory system operating under a standard demand model. We demonstrate that the standard demand model results in higher order-up-to levels and higher system costs.     

A Stochastic Petri Net Approach for Inventory Rationing in Multi-Echelon Supply Chains

Manufacturing supply chains are considered as discrete event dynamical systems (DEDS) where coordination of material and information flows is essential to satisfy customer orders and to improve the bottomline of the constituent organizations. A critical problem that is often faced by distribution centres that hold finished good inventory is that of inventory rationing. Inventory rationing is a useful strategy to tackle the problem of conflicting objectives i.e., minimizing inventory costs (holding and backorder) on the one hand and achieving the desired customer service levels (CSLs) on the other. The focus of this paper is to formulate Generalized Stochastic Petri net models to address the inventory rationing problem in the context of multi-echelon make-to-stock distribution chains, where the goods flow through multiple echelons, typically from product manufacturers all the way up-to the retail outlets. The statistical inventory control (SIC) policies modeled by the GSPN are (R, s, S) and a variant that we propose, (R^∗, s, S). We compare the performance of the model under two rationing settings. The first setting considers a case without cooperation, where the individual local stockpoints maximize their own performance. The second setting considers a case with cooperation, where the local stockpoints cooperate with each other to maximize the overall system performance. We provide a methodology to approximately determine the optimal rational fractions with different weights assigned to expected backorder and holding cost components (b/h). We present some interesting results obtained after rigorous numerical experimentation on the model.     

A periodic-review inventory control policy for a two-level supply chain with multiple retailers and stochastic demand

We consider a time-based inventory control policy for a two-level supply chain with one warehouse and multiple retailers in this paper. Let the warehouse order in a fixed base replenishment interval. The retailers are required to order in intervals that are integer-ratio multiples of the base replenishment interval at the warehouse. The warehouse and the retailers each adopt an order-up-to policy, i.e. order the needed stock at a review point to raise the inventory position to a fixed order-up-to level. It is assumed that the retailers face independent Poisson demand processes and no transshipments between them are allowed. The contribution of the study is threefold. First, we assume that when facing a shortage the warehouse allocates the remaining stock to the retailers optimally to minimize system cost in the last minute before delivery and provide an approach to evaluate the exact system cost. Second, we characterize the structural properties and develop an exact optimal solution for the inventory control system. Finally, we demonstrate that the last minute optimal warehouse stock allocation rule we adopt dominates the virtual allocation rule in which warehouse stock is allocated to meet retailer demand on a first-come first-served basis with significant cost benefits. Moreover, the proposed time-based inventory control policy can perform equally well or better than the commonly used stock-based batch-ordering policy for distribution systems with multiple retailers.     

Minimizing the Total Cost in an Integrated Vendor—Managed Inventory System

In this paper we consider a complex production-distribution system, where a facility produces (or orders from an external supplier) several items which are distributed to a set of retailers by a fleet of vehicles. We consider Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI) policies, in which the facility knows the inventory levels of the retailers and takes care of their replenishment policies. The production (or ordering) policy, the retailers replenishment policies and the transportation policy have to be determined so as to minimize the total system cost. The cost includes the fixed and variable production costs at the facility, the inventory costs at the facility and at the retailers and the transportation costs, that is the fixed costs of the vehicles and the traveling costs. We study two different types of VMI policies: The order-up-to level policy, in which the order-up-to level quantity is shipped to each retailer whenever served (i.e. the quantity delivered to each retailer is such that the maximum level of the inventory at the retailer is reached) and the fill-fill-dump policy, in which the order-up-to level quantity is shipped to all but the last retailer on each delivery route, while the quantity delivered to the last retailer is the minimum between the order-up-to level quantity and the residual transportation capacity of the vehicle. We propose two different decompositions of the problem and optimal or heuristic procedures for the solution of the subproblems. We show that, for reasonable initial values of the variables, the order in which the subproblems are solved does not influence the final solution. We will first solve the distribution subproblem and then the production subproblem. The computational results show that the fill-fill-dump policy reduces the average cost with respect to the order-up-to level policy and that one of the decompositions is more effective. Moreover, we compare the VMI policies with the more traditional Retailer-Managed Inventory (RMI) policy and show that the VMI policies significantly reduce the average cost with respect to the RMI policy.     

Determining the reorder point and order-up-to level to satisfy two constraints in a periodic review system under negative binomial demand

In this paper we consider an inventory management problem motivated by a specific practical context that concerns the commonly used periodic review, reorder point, order-up-to-level control system. In particular, the reorder point and order-up-to level have to be selected so as to satisfy two management-specified constraints. First, from a marketing (or, more generally, a business) perspective, the actual fill rate achieved must be no lower than a prescribed value. Second, for production or supply purposes, the average time between consecutive replenishments must be as close as possible to a target value. The demand distribution considered is the negative binomial. An efficient procedure is developed with illustrations.     

A periodic review inventory system with two supply modes

We describe a periodic review inventory system in which there are two modes of resupply, namely a regular mode and an emergency mode. Orders placed through the emergency channel have a shorter supply lead time but are subject to higher ordering costs compared to orders placed through the regular channel. We analyze this problem within the framework of an order-up-to-R inventory control policy. At each epoch, the inventory manager must decide which of the two supply modes to use and then order enough units to raise the inventory position to a level R. We show that given any non-negative order-up-to level, either only the regular supply mode is used, or there exists an indifference inventory level such that if the inventory position at the review epoch is below the indifference inventory level, the emergency supply mode is used. We also develop procedures for solving for the two policy parameters, i.e., the order-up-to level and the indifference inventory level.     

Determining the fill rate for a periodic review inventory policy with capacitated replenishments,lost sales and zero lead time

In this paper we consider a periodic review order-up-to inventory system with capacitated replenishments, lost sales and zero lead time. We consider discrete demand. It is shown that the initial stock levels of the different review periods form a Markov chain and we determine the transition matrix. Furthermore we study for what probability mass functions of the review period demand the Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution. Finally, we present a method to determine the fill rate.     

On two-echelon inventory systems with Poisson demand and lost sales

We consider a two-echelon, continuous review inventory system under Poisson demand and a one-for-one replenishment policy. Demand is lost if no items are available at the local warehouse, the central depot, or in the pipeline in between. We give a simple, fast and accurate approach to approximate the service levels in this system. In contrast to other methods, we do not need an iterative analysis scheme. Our method works very well for a broad set of cases, with deviations to simulation below 0.1% on average and below 0.36% for 95% of all test instances.     

Reservation and allocation policies for influenza vaccines

This research investigates the impact of alternative allocation mechanisms that can be employed in the context of vaccine inventory rationing. Available vaccine inventory can be allocated to arrivals from high priority (target groups such as healthcare professionals) and low priority (non-target groups) demand classes using Partitioned Allocation (PA), Standard Nesting (SN), and Theft Nesting (TN). In any one of the mechanisms, a part of the available inventory is reserved for the exclusive use of the high priority demand class. They differ, however, in how the unreserved portion of the inventory is utilized: Under PA, demand from the high (low) priority class consumes only the reserved (unreserved) quantity. Under SN, demand from the high priority class first consumes the reserved quantity; once and if this quantity is exhausted, high priority demand competes with low priority demand for the remaining inventory. Under TN the sequence of allocation is reversed: both demand classes first compete for the unreserved inventory. Once this portion of inventory is exhausted, high priority demand is fulfilled from the reserved inventory and low priority demand is rejected. We develop service level (probability of fulfilling the entire demand) and fill rate (fraction of demand fulfilled) expressions for all three allocation mechanisms. Based on these expressions, numerical analyses are conducted to illustrate which allocation mechanism a health planner should choose depending on the availability of vaccines, and how the health planner should set the reserved quantity for the high priority class. We observe that (1) there exist certain conditions under which one of the allocation mechanisms outperforms the others and (2) this effect is determined by the decision maker’s choice of the performance measure.     

Joint-optimization of inventory policies on a multi-product multi-echelon pharmaceutical system with batching and ordering constraints

This paper presents a methodology to find near-optimal joint inventory control policies for the real case of a one-warehouse, n-retailer distribution system of infusion solutions at a University Medical Center in France. We consider stochastic demand, batching and order-up-to level policies as well as aspects particular to the healthcare setting such as emergency deliveries, required service level rates and a new constraint on the ordering policy that fits best the hospital’s interests instead of abstract ordering costs. The system is modeled as a Markov chain with an objective to minimize the stock-on-hand value for the overall system. We provide the analytical structure of the model to show that the optimal reorder point of the policy at both echelons is easily derived from a simple probability calculation. We also show that the optimal policy at the care units is to set the order-up-to level one unit higher than the reorder point. We further demonstrate that optimizing the care units in isolation is optimal for the joint multi-echelon, n-retailer problem. A heuristic algorithm is presented to find the near-optimal order-up-to level of the policy of each product at the central pharmacy; all other policy parameters are guaranteed optimal via the structure provided by the model. Comparison of our methodology versus that currently in place at the hospital showed a reduction of approximately 45% in the stock-on-hand value while still respecting the service level requirements.     

Dynamic inventory rationing strategies for inventory systems with two demand classes,Poisson demand and backordering

We study inventory systems with two demand classes (critical and non-critical), Poisson demand and backordering. We analyze dynamic rationing strategies where the number of items reserved for critical demand depends on the remaining time until the next order arrives. Different from results in the literature, we do not discretize demand but derive a set of formulae that determine the optimal rationing level for any possible value of the remaining time. Moreover, we show that the cost parameters can be captured in a single relevant dimension, which allows us to present the optimal rationing levels in charts and lookup tables that are easy to implement. Numerical examples illustrate that the optimal dynamic rationing strategy outperforms all static strategies with fixed rationing levels.     

Multi-item inventory control with full truckloads: A comparison of aggregate and individual order triggering

In this paper, we consider the stochastic joint replenishment problem in an environment where transportation costs are dominant and full truckloads or full container loads are required. One replenishment policy, taking into account capacity restrictions of the total order volume, is the so-called QS policy, where replenishment orders are placed to raise the individual inventory positions of all items to their order-up-to levels, whenever the aggregate inventory position drops below the reorder level. We first provide a method to compute the policy parameters of a QS policy such that item target service levels can be met, under the assumption that demand can be modeled as a compound renewal process. The approximation formulas are based on renewal theory and are tested in a simulation study which reveals good performance. Second, we compare the QS policy with a simple allocation policy where replenishment orders are triggered by the individual inventory positions of the items. At the moment when an individual inventory position drops below its item reorder level, a replenishment order is triggered and the total vehicle capacity is allocated to all items such that the expected elapsed time before the next replenishment order is maximized. In an extensive simulation study it is illustrated that the QS policy outperforms this allocation policy since it results in lower inventory levels for the same service level. Although both policies lead to similar performance if items are identical, it can differ substantially if the item characteristics vary.     

复杂物流系统订货点量建模与仿真优化

复杂物流系统是一个由若干个制造商、若干个批发商和若干个零售商组成的网状物流链.讨论了在不确定性环境下,采取周期性盘点策略的复杂物流系统中各实体订货点量的建模与仿真问题.作者认为,在分散控制策略和以零售商为核心的控制策略这两种情况下,可以通过建立基于模糊集合理论的复杂物流系统模糊分析模型来确定各实体的最佳订货点量,在此基础上运用作者所开发的复杂物流系统仿真工具CLSim对订货点量进行仿真优化,可以得到在物流链集成控制策略下的订货点量.文章的最后,通过一个实例对作者的上述观点进行了说明.     

Optimal control policy for a standing order inventory system

In this paper, we consider a standing order inventory system in which an order of fixed size arrives in each period. Since demand is stochastic, such a system must allow for procurement of extra units in the case of an emergency and sell-offs of excess inventory. Assuming the average-cost criterion, Rosenshine and Obee (Operations Research 24 (1976) 1143–1155) first studied such a system and devised a 4-parameter inventory control policy that is not generally optimal. The current paper uses dynamic programming to determine the optimal control policy for a standing order system, which consists of only two operational parameters: the dispose-down-to level and order-up-to level. Either the average-cost or discounted-cost criterion can be assumed in the proposed model. Also, both the backlogged and lost-sales problems are investigated in this paper. By using a convergence theorem, we stop the dynamic programming computation and obtain the two optimal parameters.     

Service differentiation in spare parts inventory management

The contemporary after-sales market is of increasing importance. One of the features required by the market is to provide differentiated service levels to different groups of customers. We use critical levels as a means to offer differentiation. Critical level policies aim to exploit the differences in target service levels by inventory rationing. In our multi-item single-location spare parts inventory model, we aim to minimize the spare parts provisioning cost, that is inventory holding and transportation cost, under the condition that aggregate mean waiting time constraints for all customer groups are met. In a computational experiment and a case study with data from a company in the semiconductor supplier industry, we show that significant cost reductions can be obtained when critical level policies are used instead of base stock policies (ie policies without critical levels).     

Lost-sales inventory systems with a service level criterion

Competitive retail environments are characterized by service levels and lost sales in case of excess demand. We contribute to research on lost-sales models with a service level criterion in multiple ways. First, we study the optimal replenishment policy for this type of inventory system as well as base-stock policies and (R, s, S) policies. Furthermore, we derive lower and upper bounds on the order-up-to level, and we propose efficient approximation procedures to determine the order-up-to level. The procedures find values of the inventory control variables that are close to the best (R, s, S) policy and comply to the service level restriction for most of the instances, with an average cost increase of 2.3% and 1.2% for the case without and with fixed order costs, respectively.     

A partial-postponement decision cost model

A number of factors, including product proliferation and increased customer service-level requirements, have led many companies to consider adopting postponement as a supply chain strategy. Packaging postponement is the process of delaying packaging of a common item into a final product configuration until the customer order is received. For a given product, a portion of demand is known with a high level of certainty and would not benefit from postponement. The remaining portion of demand is known with little certainty and would benefit from delaying the differentiating stage of the operation until demand is known. We develop a single-period, two-product, order-up-to cost model to aid in setting the levels of finished-goods inventory and postponement capacity. Minimum-cost optimal solutions to inventory levels and capacity are obtained by solving the derived analytical expressions using a non-linear programming formulation. We examine the sensitivity of the model to different levels of the model parameters to generate managerial insights beyond those of previous work. We show that changing product value, packaging cost, cost of postponement, holding cost, fill rate, and demand correlation can decrease expected total cost and increase postponement capacity.     

Joint demand fulfillment probability in a multi-item inventory system with independent order-up-to policies

We consider a multi-item inventory system with dependent item demands represented by a multivariate normal distribution and filled under a First-Come-First-Served rule. Each item is managed independently through a periodic review order-up-to policy while all items have the same review cycle. We obtain the joint demand fulfillment probability within a pre-specified time window. We also study the problem of maximizing the joint demand fulfillment probability and discuss a heuristic approach in which equal safety factors (equal fractiles) are specified for all items. Finally we present numerical results and an application with actual data.     

基于随机动态规划的有限库存ATO系统优化控制

本文研究n维组件单一产品,有限库存的ATO系统。通过建立马尔可夫决策过程模型(MDP),构造优化算法,研究组件生产与库存的最优控制策略。最优策路可以表示为状态依赖型库存阈值,系统内任一组件的控制策略受其它组件库存状态的影响。利用最优控制理论动态规划方法和数值计算方法对最优控制策略的存在性、最优值的数值计算进行研究,建立更符合实际生产的ATO系统决策模型,进行相应的理论和实验验证,研究系统参数对最优策略的影响。     

Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon

We study a generalised order-up-to policy that has highly desirable properties in terms of order and inventory variance and customer service levels it generates. We quantify exactly the variance amplification in replenishment orders, i.e. the bullwhip effect, and the variance of inventory levels over time, for i.i.d. and the weakly stationary auto regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto regressive moving average (ARMA) demand processes. We demonstrate that high customer service as measured by fill-rate, and smooth replenishments need not increase inventory cost substantially. We observe that in some instances of the ARMA demand pattern this comes at the expense of a relatively small increase in safety stock, whilst in other instances inventory levels can actually be reduced.