Hierarchical structures of correlations networks among Turkey’s exports and imports by currencies

We have examined the hierarchical structures of correlations networks among Turkey’s exports and imports by currencies for the 1996–2010 periods, using the concept of a minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT) which depend on the concept of ultrametricity. These trees are useful tools for understanding and detecting the global structure, taxonomy and hierarchy in financial markets. We derived a hierarchical organization and build the MSTs and HTs during the 1996–2001 and 2002–2010 periods. The reason for studying two different sub-periods, namely 1996–2001 and 2002–2010, is that the Euro (EUR) came into use in 2001, and some countries have made their exports and imports with Turkey via the EUR since 2002, and in order to test various time-windows and observe temporal evolution. We have carried out bootstrap analysis to associate a value of the statistical reliability to the links of the MSTs and HTs. We have also used the average linkage cluster analysis (ALCA) to observe the cluster structure more clearly. Moreover, we have obtained the bidimensional minimal spanning tree (BMST) due to economic trade being a bidimensional problem. From the structural topologies of these trees, we have identified different clusters of currencies according to their proximity and economic ties. Our results show that some currencies are more important within the network, due to a tighter connection with other currencies. We have also found that the obtained currencies play a key role for Turkey’s exports and imports and have important implications for the design of portfolio and investment strategies.     

Correlations,hierarchies and networks of the world’s automotive companies

We investigate, within the scope of econophysics, the correlations, hierarchies and networks of the world’s automotive companies over the 2003–2010 period by using the concept of a minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT). We derive a hierarchical organization and construct the MSTs and HTs for the 2003–2010 period and illustrate how the MSTs and their associated HTs developed over time. These periods are divided into two subperiods, such as 2003–2006 and 2007–2010, in order to test various time-windows and understand the temporal evolution of the correlation structure over time. We perform the bootstrap techniques to investigate a value of the statistical reliability to the links of the MSTs. We also use average linkage cluster analysis (ALCA) to observe the cluster structure more clearly in HTs. From the structural topologies of these trees, we identify different clusters of companies according to their geographical proximity and economic ties. Our results show that some companies are more important within the network, due to a tighter connection with other companies. We also find that these important companies play a predominant role in the world’s automotive industry.     

Analysis of the effects of the global financial crisis on the Turkish economy, using hierarchical methods

We have analyzed the topology of 50 important Turkish companies for the period 2006-2010 using the concept of hierarchical methods (the minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT)). We investigated the statistical reliability of links between companies in the MST by using the bootstrap technique. We also used the average linkage cluster analysis (ALCA) technique to observe the cluster structures much better. The MST and HT are known as useful tools to perceive and detect global structure, taxonomy, and hierarchy in financial data. We obtained four clusters of companies according to their proximity. We also observed that the Banks and Holdings cluster always forms in the centre of the MSTs for the periods 2006-2007, 2008, and 2009-2010. The clusters match nicely with their common production activities or their strong interrelationship. The effects of the Automobile sector increased after the global financial crisis due to the temporary incentives provided by the Turkish government. We find that Turkish companies were not very affected by the global financial crisis.     

Investigation of major international and Turkish companies via hierarchical methods and bootstrap approach

We present a study, within the scope of econophysics, of the hierarchical structure of 98 among the largest international companies including 18 among the largest Turkish companies, namely Banks, Automobile, Software-hardware, Telecommunication Services, Energy and the Oil-Gas sectors, viewed as a network of interacting companies. We analyze the daily time series data of the Boerse-Frankfurt and Istanbul Stock Exchange. We examine the topological properties among the companies over the period 2006–2010 by using the concept of hierarchical structure methods (the minimal spanning tree (MST) and the hierarchical tree (HT)). The period is divided into three subperiods, namely 2006–2007, 2008 which was the year of global economic crisis, and 2009–2010, in order to test various time-windows and observe temporal evolution. We carry out bootstrap analyses to associate the value of statistical reliability to the links of the MSTs and HTs. We also use average linkage clustering analysis (ALCA) in order to better observe the cluster structure. From these studies, we find that the interactions among the Banks/Energy sectors and the other sectors were reduced after the global economic crisis; hence the effects of the Banks and Energy sectors on the correlations of all companies were decreased. Telecommunication Services were also greatly affected by the crisis. We also observed that the Automobile and Banks sectors, including Turkish companies as well as some companies from the USA, Japan and Germany were strongly correlated with each other in all periods.     

Hierarchical cluster-tendency analysis of the group structure in the foreign exchange market

A hierarchical cluster-tendency (HCT) method in analyzing the group structure of networks of the global foreign exchange (FX) market is proposed by combining the advantages of both the minimal spanning tree (MST) and the hierarchical tree (HT). Fifty currencies of the top 50 World GDP in 2010 according to World Bank’s database are chosen as the underlying system. By using the HCT method, all nodes in the FX market network can be “colored” and distinguished. We reveal that the FX networks can be divided into two groups, i.e., the Asia-Pacific group and the Pan-European group. The results given by the hierarchical cluster-tendency method agree well with the formerly observed geographical aggregation behavior in the FX market. Moreover, an oil-resource aggregation phenomenon is discovered by using our method. We find that gold could be a better numeraire for the weekly-frequency FX data.     

The relationships between electricity consumption and GDP in Asian countries,using hierarchical structure methods

This study uses hierarchical structure methods (minimal spanning tree (MST) and hierarchical tree (HT)) to examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in a sample of 30 Asian countries covering the period 1971–2008. These countries are categorized into four panels based on the World Bank income classification, namely high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income. In particular, we use the data of electricity consumption and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to detect the topological properties of the countries. We show a relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth by using the MST and HT. We also use the bootstrap technique to investigate a value of the statistical reliability to the links of the MST. Finally, we use a clustering linkage procedure in order to observe the cluster structure. The results of the structural topologies of these trees are as follows: (i) we identified different clusters of countries according to their geographical location and economic growth, (ii) we found a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for all income groups considered in this study and (iii) the results are in good agreement with the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth.     

Hierarchical structure of countries based on carbon dioxide emission over the periods of 1971–2012; the relationships economic growth and energy consumption

This study uses hierarchical structure methods (minimal spanning tree, (MST) and hierarchical tree, (HT)) to examine the hierarchical structures of the carbon dioxide emission from the 84 countries by three main sectors, namely electricity/heat, manufacturing/construction and transportation sectors. We obtain the topological properties among the countries based on carbon dioxide emission over the periods of 1971–2012. We also perform the bootstrap techniques to investigate a value of the statistical reliability to the links of the MSTs. The results of the topologies structural of these trees are as follows: (i) We identified different groups of countries according to their economic growth and geographical location. (ii) Our results show that the high income and low energy consuming country groups are more important within the network.     

Penrose tiling fractality in coordination Cayley’s tree graphs representation

We offer the mathematical apparatus for mapping lattice and cellular systems into the generalized coordination Cayley’s tree graphs. These Cayley’s trees have a random branchiness property and an intralayer interbush local intersection. Classical Bethe-Cayley tree graphs don’t have these properties. Bush type simplicial decomposition on Cayley’s tree graphs is introduced, on which the enumerating polynomials or enumerating distributions are built. Within the entropy methodology three types of fractal characteristics are introduced, which characterize quasi-crystalline pentagonal Penrose tiling. The quantitative estimate for the frontal-radial fractal percolation on a Cayley’s tree graph of a Penrose tiling leading to the overdimensioned effect is calculated.     

Topology of the correlation networks among major currencies using hierarchical structure methods

We studied the topology of correlation networks among 34 major currencies using the concept of a minimal spanning tree and hierarchical tree for the full years of 2007-2008 when major economic turbulence occurred. We used the USD (US Dollar) and the TL (Turkish Lira) as numeraires in which the USD was the major currency and the TL was the minor currency. We derived a hierarchical organization and constructed minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs) for the full years of 2007, 2008 and for the 2007-2008 period. We performed a technique to associate a value of reliability to the links of MSTs and HTs by using bootstrap replicas of data. We also used the average linkage cluster analysis for obtaining the hierarchical trees in the case of the TL as the numeraire. These trees are useful tools for understanding and detecting the global structure, taxonomy and hierarchy in financial data. We illustrated how the minimal spanning trees and their related hierarchical trees developed over a period of time. From these trees we identified different clusters of currencies according to their proximity and economic ties. The clustered structure of the currencies and the key currency in each cluster were obtained and we found that the clusters matched nicely with the geographical regions of corresponding countries in the world such as Asia or Europe. As expected the key currencies were generally those showing major economic activity.     

Sovereign debt crisis in the European Union: A minimum spanning tree approach

In the wake of the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis has emerged and is severely affecting some countries in the European Union, threatening the viability of the euro and even the EU itself. This paper applies recent developments in econophysics, in particular the minimum spanning tree approach and the associate hierarchical tree, to analyze the asynchronization between the four most affected countries and other resilient countries in the euro area. For this purpose, daily government bond yield rates are used, covering the period from April 2007 to October 2010, thus including yield rates before, during and after the financial crises. The results show an increasing separation of the two groups of euro countries with the deepening of the government bond crisis.     

Comovements in government bond markets: A minimum spanning tree analysis

The concept of a minimum spanning tree (MST) is used to study patterns of comovements for a set of twenty government bond market indices for developed North American, European, and Asian countries. We show how the MST and its related hierarchical tree evolve over time and describe the dynamic development of market linkages. Over the sample period, 1993-2008, linkages between markets have decreased somewhat. However, a subset of European Union (EU) bond markets does show increasing levels of comovements. The evolution of distinct groups within the Eurozone is also examined. The implications of our findings for portfolio diversification benefits are outlined.     

Spatially correlated heterogeneous aspirations to enhance network reciprocity

Perc & Wang demonstrated that aspiring to be the fittest under conditions of pairwise strategy updating enhances network reciprocity in structured populations playing 2×2 Prisoner’s Dilemma games (Z. Wang, M. Perc, Aspiring to the fittest and promoted of cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma game, Physical Review E 82 (2010) 021115; M. Perc, Z. Wang, Heterogeneous aspiration promotes cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma game, PLOS one 5 (12) (2010) e15117). Through numerical simulations, this paper shows that network reciprocity is even greater if heterogeneous aspirations are imposed. We also suggest why heterogeneous aspiration fosters network reciprocity. It distributes strategy updating speed among agents in a manner that fortifies the initially allocated cooperators’ clusters against invasion. This finding prompted us to further enhance the usual heterogeneous aspiration cases for heterogeneous network topologies. We find that a negative correlation between degree and aspiration level does extend cooperation among heterogeneously structured agents.     

Currency crises and the evolution of foreign exchange market: Evidence from minimum spanning tree

We examined the time series properties of the foreign exchange market for 1990-2008 in relation to the history of the currency crises using the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach and made several meaningful observations about the MST of currencies. First, around currency crises, the mean correlation coefficient between currencies decreased whereas the normalized tree length increased. The mean correlation coefficient dropped dramatically passing through the Asian crisis and remained at the lowered level after that. Second, the Euro and the US dollar showed a strong negative correlation after 1997, implying that the prices of the two currencies moved in opposite directions. Third, we observed that Asian countries and Latin American countries moved away from the cluster center (USA) passing through the Asian crisis and Argentine crisis, respectively.     

Tourism development and economic growth-a nonlinear approach

We use cross sectional data (1995-2005 yearly averages) for 88 countries to investigate the nonlinear relationship between tourism development and economic growth when a threshold variable is used. The degree of tourism specialization (q_i, defined as receipts from international tourism as a percentage of GDP) is used as the threshold variable. The results of the tests for nonlinearity indicate that the 88 countries’ data should be separated into three different groups or regimes to analyze the tourism-growth nexus. The results of the threshold regression show that when the q_i is below 4.0488% (regime 1, 57 countries) or above 4.7337% (regime 3, 23 countries), there exists a significantly positive relationship between tourism growth and economic growth. However, when the q_i is above 4.0488% and below 4.7337% (regime 2, 8 countries), we are unable to find evidence of such a significant relationship. Further in-depth analysis reveals that relatively low ratios of the value added of the service industry to GDP, and the forested area per country area are able to explain why we are unable to find a significant relationship between these two variables in regime 2’s countries.     

The Local Structure of Globalization

We study the evolution of the network of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the international electricity industry during the period 1994–2003. We assume that the ties in the network of investment relations between countries are created and deleted in continuous time, according to a conditional Gibbs distribution. This assumption allows us to take simultaneously into account the aggregate predictions of the well-established gravity model of international trade as well as local dependencies between network ties connecting the countries in our sample. According to the modified version of the gravity model that we specify, the probability of observing an investment tie between two countries depends on the mass of the economies involved, their physical distance, and the tendency of the network to self-organize into local configurations of network ties. While the limiting distribution of the data generating process is an exponential random graph model, we do not assume the system to be in equilibrium. We find evidence of the effects of the standard gravity model of international trade on evolution of the global FDI network. However, we also provide evidence of significant dyadic and extra-dyadic dependencies between investment ties that are typically ignored in available research. We show that local dependencies between national electricity industries are sufficient for explaining global properties of the network of foreign direct investments. We also show, however, that network dependencies vary significantly over time giving rise to a time-heterogeneous localized process of network evolution.     

Urban road network evolution mechanism based on the ‘direction preferred connection’ and ‘degree constraint’

The urban road network is a complex system that exhibits the properties of self-organization and emergence. Recent theoretical and empirical studies have mainly focused on the structural properties of the urban road networks. This research concentrates on some important parameters such as degree, average degree, meshedness coefficient, betweeness, etc. These parameters of the real road network exhibit specific statistical properties. Some studies show that perhaps these specific statistical properties are caused by a compromise mechanism of the formation of a minimum spanning tree and the greedy triangulation. Inspired by these results, we propose a principle to construct the network (we call it a MG network in this paper) whose structure is located between the minimum spanning tree and the greedy triangulation at first. The structural properties of the MG network are analyzed. We find the formation mechanism of the MG network cannot explain the urban road network evolution well. Then, based on the formation mechanism of the MG network, we add the ‘direction preferred connection’ and ‘degree constraint’ principles to the urban road network evolution simulation process. The result of the simulation network turns out to be a planar network that is in accordance with reality. Compared with the real road network’s structural properties, we find the simulation results are so consistent with it. It indicates the validation of the model and also demonstrates perhaps the ‘direction preferred connection’ and ‘degree constraint’ principle can explain the urban road network evolution better.     

Distributions of positive correlations in sectoral value added growth in the global economic network*

International trade has grown considerably during the process of globalization. Complex supply chains for the production of goods have resulted in an increasingly connected International Trade Network (ITN). Traditionally, direct trade relations between industries have been regarded as mediators of supply and demand spillovers. With increasing network connectivity the question arises if higher-order relations become more important in explaining a national sector’s susceptibility to supply and demand changes of its trading partner. In this study we address this question by investigating empirically to what extent the topological properties of the ITN provide information about positive correlations in the production of two industry sectors. We observe that although direct trade relations between industries serve as important indicators for correlations in the industries’ value added growth, opportunities of substitution for required production inputs as well as second-order trade relations cannot be neglected. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the relation between trade and economic productivity and can serve as a basis for the improvement of crisis spreading models that evaluate contagion threats in the case of a node’s failure in the ITN.     

Pareto law of the expenditure of a person in convenience stores

We study the statistical laws of the expenditure of a person in convenience stores by analyzing around 100 million receipts. The density function of expenditure exhibits a fat tail that follows a power law. Using the Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient is estimated to be 0.70; this implies that loyal customers contribute significantly to a store’s sales. We observe the Pareto principle where both the top 25% and 2% of the customers account for 80% and 25% of the store’s sales, respectively.     

On the assumption of initial factorization in the master equation for weakly coupled systems II: Solvable models

We analyze some solvable models of a quantum mechanical system in interaction with a reservoir when the initial state is not factorized. We apply Nakajima-Zwanzig’s projection method by choosing a reference state of the reservoir endowed with the mixing property. In van Hove’s limit, the dynamics is described in terms of a master equation. We observe that Markovianity becomes a valid approximation for timescales that depend both on the form factors of the interaction and on the observables of the reservoir that can be measured.