Ewens sampling formulae with and without selection

We shall first consider the random Dirichlet partitioning of the interval into n   fragments at temperature θ>0.$\theta >0.$ Using calculus for Dirichlet integrals, pre-asymptotic versions of the Ewens sampling formulae from finite Dirichlet partitions follow up. From these preliminaries, straightforward proofs of the usual sampling formulae from random proportions with Poisson–Dirichlet (PD)(γ)$(\mathrm{PD})(\gamma )$ distribution can be obtained, while considering the Kingman limit n↗∞$n\nearrow \infty$, θ↘0$\theta \searrow 0$, with nθ=γ>0$n\theta =\gamma >0$.     

Strong approximation of semimartingales and statistical processes

Summary As an application of general convergence results for semimartingales, exposed in their book Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes, Jacod and Shiryaev obtained a fundamental result on the convergence of likelihood ratio processes to a Gaussian limit. We strengthen this result in a quantitative sense and show that versions of the likelihood ratio processes can be defined on the space of the limiting experiment such that we get pathwise almost sure approximations with respect to the uniform metric. The approximations are considered under both sequences of measures, the hypothesisP ⁿ and the alternative . A consequence is e.g. an estimate for the speed of convergence in the Prohorov metric. New approximation techniques for stochastic processes are developed.This article was processed by the author using the L^AT_EX style filepljourIm from Springer-Verlag.     

Power variation for Gaussian processes with stationary increments

We develop the asymptotic theory for the realised power variation of the processes X=?•G$X=?•G$, where G$G$ is a Gaussian process with stationary increments. More specifically, under some mild assumptions on the variance function of the increments of G$G$ and certain regularity conditions on the path of the process ?$?$ we prove the convergence in probability for the properly normalised realised power variation. Moreover, under a further assumption on the Hölder index of the path of ?$?$, we show an associated stable central limit theorem. The main tool is a general central limit theorem, due essentially to Hu and Nualart [Y. Hu, D. Nualart, Renormalized self-intersection local time for fractional Brownian motion, Ann. Probab. (33) (2005) 948–983], Nualart and Peccati [D. Nualart, G. Peccati, Central limit theorems for sequences of multiple stochastic integrals, Ann. Probab. (33) (2005) 177–193] and Peccati and Tudor [G. Peccati, C.A. Tudor, Gaussian limits for vector-valued multiple stochastic integrals, in: M. Emery, M. Ledoux, M. Yor (Eds.), Seminaire de Probabilites XXXVIII, in: Lecture Notes in Math, vol. 1857, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2005, pp. 247–262], for sequences of random variables which admit a chaos representation.     

Functional central limit theorems for self-normalized least squares processes in regression with possibly infinite variance data

Based on an R²-valued random sample {(y_i,x_i),1≤i≤n} on the simple linear regression model y_i=x_iβ+α+ε_i with unknown error variables ε_i, least squares processes (LSPs) are introduced in D[0,1] for the unknown slope β and intercept α, as well as for the unknown β when α=0. These LSPs contain, in both cases, the classical least squares estimators (LSEs) for these parameters. It is assumed throughout that {(x,ε),(x_i,ε_i),i≥1} are i.i.d. random vectors with independent components x and ε that both belong to the domain of attraction of the normal law, possibly both with infinite variances. Functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) are established for self-normalized type versions of the vector of the introduced LSPs for (β,α), as well as for their various marginal counterparts for each of the LSPs alone, respectively via uniform Euclidean norm and sup–norm approximations in probability. As consequences of the obtained FCLTs, joint and marginal central limit theorems (CLTs) are also discussed for Studentized and self-normalized type LSEs for the slope and intercept. Our FCLTs and CLTs provide a source for completely data-based asymptotic confidence intervals for β and α.     

The tail probability of the product of dependent random variables from max-domains of attraction

In this article, we investigate the tail probability of the product of finitely many non-negative dependent random variables. They follow distributions from max-domains of attraction of extreme value distributions and their dependence is modeled via a multivariate Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern distribution. For each of the Fréchet, Gumbel and Weibull cases, we obtain an explicit asymptotic formula for the tail probability of the product. Our study extends a few known results in the literature.     

An optimal stopping problem for fragmentation processes

In this article we consider a toy example of an optimal stopping problem driven by fragmentation processes. We show that one can work with the concept of stopping lines to formulate the notion of an optimal stopping problem and moreover, to reduce it to a classical optimal stopping problem for a generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process associated with Bertoin’s tagged fragment. We go on to solve the latter using a classical verification technique thanks to the application of aspects of the modern theory of integrated exponential Lévy processes.     

On some testing problems for sparse contingency tables

A class of test statistics are proposed for sparse tables with ordered categories. It is shown that for different testing situations these test statistics asymptotically more powerful tests than Pearson's chi-square.     

Parameter estimation for first-order bifurcating autoregressive processes with Weibull innovations

We study the first-order bifurcating autoregressive process X_t=?X_⌊t/2⌋+?_t with Weibull innovations. Using point process technique, we estimate the model parameter ? and the tail index α in the Weibull distribution and obtain the joint limit distribution of estimators.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

Some notes on extremal discriminant analysis

Classical discriminant analysis focusses on Gaussian and nonparametric models where in the second case the unknown densities are replaced by kernel densities based on the training sample. In the present article we assume that it suffices to base the classification on exceedances above higher thresholds, which can be interpreted as observations in a conditional framework. Therefore, the statistical modeling of truncated distributions is merely required. In this context, a nonparametric modeling is not adequate because the kernel method is inaccurate in the upper tail region. Yet one may deal with truncated parametric distributions like the Gaussian ones. Our primary aim is to replace truncated Gaussian distributions by appropriate generalized Pareto distributions and to explore properties and the relationship of discriminant functions in both models.     

An extension of a logarithmic form of Cramér’s ruin theorem to some FARIMA and related processes

Cramér’s theorem provides an estimate for the tail probability of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift and increments having a moment generating function finite in a neighborhood of the origin. The class of (g,F)$(g,F)$-processes generalizes in a natural way random walks and fractional ARIMA models used in time series analysis. For those (g,F)$(g,F)$-processes with negative drift, we obtain a logarithmic estimate of the tail probability of their maximum, under conditions comparable to Cramér’s. Furthermore, we exhibit the most likely paths as well as the most likely behavior of the innovations leading to a large maximum.     

Dependence orderings for some functionals of multivariate point processes

We study dependence orderings for functionals of k-variate point processes Φ and Ψ. We view the first process as a collection of counting measures, whereas the second as the sequences of interpoint distances. Subsequently, we establish regularity properties of stationary sequences which generalize known results for iid case. The theoretical results are illustrated by many special cases including comparison of multivariate sums and products, comparison of multivariate shock models and queueing systems.     

Exponential stability for neutral stochastic partial differential equations with delays and Poisson jumps

In this paper, we consider a class of neutral stochastic partial differential equations with delays and Poisson jumps. Sufficient conditions for the existence and exponential stability in mean square as well as almost surely exponential stability of mild solutions are derived by means of the Banach fixed point principle. An example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed result.     

Limit theorems for permutations of empirical processes with applications to change point analysis

Theorems of approximation of Gaussian processes for the sequential empirical process of the permutations of independent random variables are established. The results are applied to simulate critical values for the functionals of sequential empirical processes used in change point analysis. The proofs are based on the properties of rank statistics and negatively associated random variables.     

On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process

Conditions are given under which the empirical copula process associated with a random sample from a bivariate continuous distribution has a smaller asymptotic covariance function than the standard empirical process based on observations from the copula. Illustrations are provided and consequences for inference are outlined.     

Asymptotics for risk capital allocations based on Conditional Tail Expectation

An investigation of the limiting behavior of a risk capital allocation rule based on the Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE) risk measure is carried out. More specifically, with the help of general notions of Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the aforementioned risk capital allocation is shown to be asymptotically proportional to the corresponding Value-at-Risk (VaR) risk measure. The existing methodology acquired for VaR can therefore be applied to a somewhat less well-studied CTE. In the context of interest, the EVT approach is seemingly well-motivated by modern regulations, which openly strive for the excessive prudence in determining risk capitals.     

Weyl group action and semicanonical bases

Let U be the enveloping algebra of a symmetric Kac–Moody algebra. The Weyl group acts on U, up to a sign. In addition, the positive subalgebra U⁺ contains a so-called semicanonical basis, with remarkable properties. The aim of this paper is to show that these two structures are as compatible as possible.     

Local torus actions modeled on the standard representation

We introduce the notion of a local torus action modeled on the standard representation (for simplicity, we call it a local torus action). It is a generalization of a locally standard torus action and also an underlying structure of a locally toric Lagrangian fibration. For a local torus action, we define two invariants called a characteristic pair and an Euler class of the orbit map, and prove that local torus actions are classified topologically by them. As a corollary, we obtain a topological classification of locally standard torus actions, which includes the topological classifications of quasi-toric manifolds by Davis and Januszkiewicz and of effective T²-actions on four-dimensional manifolds without nontrivial finite stabilizers by Orlik and Raymond. We discuss locally toric Lagrangian fibrations from the viewpoint of local torus actions. We also investigate the topology of a manifold equipped with a local torus action when the Euler class of the orbit map vanishes.     

Optimality of the threshold dividend strategy for the compound Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the optimal dividend problem for the compound Poisson risk model. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to an admissible strategy with dividend rate bounded by a constant. Our objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividends until ruin. We give sufficient conditions under which the optimal strategy is of threshold type.