A METAPOPULATION MODEL FOR FERAL HOGS IN GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK

Feral Hogs (Sus scrofa) are an invasive species that have occupied the Great Smoky Mountains National Park since the early 1900s. Recent studies on vegetation, mast, and harvest history were important for our work. Using these data, a model with discrete time and space was formulated to represent the feral hog dynamics in the Park. Management strategies and key characteristics of the population were investigated. The model uses observed mast variation to help govern population dynamics and results indicate that Park control efforts have limited the growth of the population.     

Optimal control and basic reproduction numbers for a compartmental spatial multipatch dengue model

Dengue is a vector‐borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. In this work, a multipatch model for dengue transmission dynamics is studied, and by that, the control efforts to minimize the disease spread by host and vector control are investigated. For this model, the basic reproduction number is derived, giving a choice for parameters in the endemic case. The multipatch system models the host movement within the patches, which coupled via a residence‐time budgeting matrix P. Numerical results confirm that the control mechanism embedded in incidence rates of the disease transmission effectively reduces the spread of the disease.     

From Individuals to Populations: A Symbolic Process Algebra Approach to Epidemiology

Is it possible to symbolically express and analyse an individual-based model of disease spread, including realistic population dynamics? This problem is addressed through the use of process algebra and a novel method for transforming process algebra into Mean Field Equations. A number of stochastic models of population growth are presented, exploring different representations based on alternative views of individual behaviour. The overall population dynamics in terms of mean field equations are derived using a formal and rigorous rewriting based method. These equations are easily compared with the traditionally used deterministic Ordinary Differential Equation models and allow evaluation of those ODE models, challenging their assumptions about system dynamics. The utility of our approach for epidemiology is confirmed by constructing a model combining population growth with disease spread and fitting it to data on HIV in the UK population. This work was supported by EPSRC through a Doctoral Training Grant (CM, from 2004–2007), and through System Dynamics from Individual Interactions: A process algebra approach to epidemiology (EP/E006280/1, all authors, 2007–2010).     

A PREDICTIVE MODEL TO INFORM ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF DOUBLE‐CRESTED CORMORANTS AND FISHERIES IN MICHIGAN

The proliferation of double‐crested cormorants (DCCOs; Phalacrocorax auritus) in North America has raised concerns over their potential negative impacts on game, cultured and forage fishes, island and terrestrial resources, and other colonial water birds, leading to increased public demands to reduce their abundance. By combining fish surplus production and bird functional feeding response models, we developed a deterministic predictive model representing bird–fish interactions to inform an adaptive management process for the control of DCCOs in multiple colonies in Michigan. Comparisons of model predictions with observations of changes in DCCO numbers under management measures implemented from 2004 to 2012 suggested that our relatively simple model was able to accurately reconstruct past DCCO population dynamics. These comparisons helped discriminate among alternative parameterizations of demographic processes that were poorly known, especially site fidelity. Using sensitivity analysis, we also identified remaining critical uncertainties (mainly in the spatial distributions of fish vs. DCCO feeding areas) that can be used to prioritize future research and monitoring needs. Model forecasts suggested that continuation of existing control efforts would be sufficient to achieve long‐term DCCO control targets in Michigan and that DCCO control may be necessary to achieve management goals for some DCCO‐impacted fisheries in the state. Finally, our model can be extended by accounting for parametric or ecological uncertainty and including more complex assumptions on DCCO–fish interactions as part of the adaptive management process.     

A MODEL OF THE ENZOOTIOLOGY OF LYME DISEASE IN THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE UNITED STATES

A mathematical model is presented for the dynamics of the rate of infection of the Lyme disease vector tick Ixodes dammini (Acari: Ixodidae) by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi, in the Atlantic Northeast of the United States. According to this model, moderate reductions in the abundance of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus may either decrease or increase the spirochete infection rate in ticks, provided the deer are not reservoir hosts for Lyme disease. Expressions for the basic reproductive rate of the disease are computed analytically for special cases, and it is shown that as the basic reproductive rate increases, a proportional reduction in the tick population produces a smaller proportional reduction in the infection rate, so that vector control is less effective far above the threshold. The model also shows that control of the mouse reservoir hosts Peromyscus leucopus could reduce the infection rate if the survivorship of juvenile stages of ticks were reduced as a consequence. If the survivorship of juvenile stages does not decline as the rodent population is reduced, then rodent reduction can increase the spirochete infection rate in the ticks.     

HOW BIG AND HOW CLOSE? HABITAT PATCH SIZE AND SPACING TO CONSERVE A THREATENED SPECIES

Abstract. We present results of a spatially explicit, individual‐based stochastic dispersal model (HexSim) to evaluate effects of size and spacing of patches of habitat of Northern Spotted Owls (NSO; Strix occidentalis caurina) in Pacific Northwest, USA, to help advise recovery planning efforts. We modeled 31 artificial landscape scenarios representing combinations of NSO habitat cluster size (range 4–49 NSO pairs per cluster) and edge‐to‐edge cluster spacing (range 7–101 km), and an all‐habitat landscape. We ran scenarios using empirical estimates of NSO dispersal dynamics and distances and stage class vital rates (representing current population declines) and under adult survival rates adjusted to achieve an initially stationary population. Results suggested that long‐term (100‐yr) habitat occupancy rates are significantly higher with habitat clusters supporting ≥25 NSO pairs and ≤15 km spacing, and with overall landscapes of ≥35–40% habitat. Although habitat provision is key to NSO recovery, no habitat configuration provided for long‐term population persistence when coupled with currently observed vital rates. Results also suggested a key role of floaters (unpaired, nonterritorial, dispersing owls) in recolonizing vacant habitat, and that the floater population segment becomes increasingly depleted with greater population declines. We suggest additional areas of modeling research on this and other threatened species.     

Piecewise optimal distributed Controls for 2D Boussinesq equations

In this article, we study the dynamics of a piecewise (in time) distributed optimal control problem for the Boussinesq equations which model velocity tracking over time coupled to thermal dynamics. We also study the dynamics of semidiscrete approximation of this problem. We prove that the rates of velocity tracking coupled to thermal dynamics are exponential and that the difference between the solution of the semi‐discrete piecewise optimal control problem and the desired states in L² and H¹ norms decay to zero exponentially as n→∞. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the role of government efforts in controlling extremism in a society

People having extreme idealogies affect the process in a region using fear of terror acts, money power, and the word of mouth communication network to change individuals to their way of thinking. This forces government to divert its limited financial resources for controlling extremism and thus affecting development. In this paper, therefore, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to study the dynamics of extremism governed by four dependent variables, namely, number of people in the general population having no extreme ideology, number of extreme ideologists, number of isolated ideologists (prisoners), and the cumulative density of government efforts and their interactions. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The analysis shows that if appropriate level of government efforts is applied on extremists, the spread of their ideology can be controlled in the general population. A numerical study of the model is also carried out to investigate the effects of certain parameters on the spread of extremism confirming the analytical results.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

General functional response and recruitment in a predator–prey system with capture on both species

This work provides a mathematical model for a predator‐prey system with general functional response and recruitment, which also includes capture on both species, and analyzes its qualitative dynamics. The model is formulated considering a population growth based on a general form of recruitment and predator functional response, as well as the capture on both prey and predators at a rate proportional to their populations. In this sense, it is proved that the dynamics and bifurcations are determined by a two‐dimensional threshold parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are performed using some ecological observations on two real species, which validate the theoretical results obtained. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF A SUBTROPICAL UNGULATE IN A VARIABLE ENVIRONMENT: RAIN,COLD AND PREDATORS

ABSTRACT. A structured population model was developed for a large ungulate, the kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros). From a ten-year study in South Africa's Kruger National Park, relationships were established between annual survival rates of particular age classes and resource availability indexed by the ratio between annual rainfall and population biomass density. The projected population dynamics resembled that from a simple logistic model, but with the convexity of density dependence and intrinsic growth rate dependent upon assumptions about how age-specific mortality changed at low density levels. Moreover, rather than being a preset constant, the effective carrying capacity K wasa dynamic variable dependent upon rainfall. The model closely replicated the observed dynamicsof the kudu population over the study period, but failed to predict the observed kudu density at the start of the study from prior rainfall alone. Episodic cold weather extremeswere identified ashaving an additional influence on kudu dynamics. The model was also unsuccessful in predicting the changesin kudu abundance that occurred in Kruger Park subsequent to the study. Here changes in predation perhaps due to predator switching were a possible influence. These additional factorsinfluencing population dynamicswould not have been recognized without first establishing the effects of changing resource availability in response to rainfall fluctu-ationsbetween years. The elaborated model incorporating the effects of resource supply as influenced by rainfall, density dependence, background predation pressure and episodic severe weather hasbroader reliability than simpler modelsfor conservation applications, while still having a firm empirical foundation.     

Dynamic complexities in a single-species discrete population model with stage structure and birth pulses

Natural population, whose population numbers are small and generations are non-overlapping, can be modelled by difference equations that describe how the population evolve in discrete time-steps. This paper investigates a recent study on the dynamics complexities in a single-species discrete population model with stage structure and birth pulses. Using the stroboscopic map, we obtain an exact cycle of system, and obtain the threshold conditions for its stability. Above this, there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that this the dynamical behaviors of the single-species discrete model with birth pulses are very complex, including (a) non-unique dynamics, meaning that several attractors and chaos coexist; (b) small-amplitude annual oscillations; (c) large-amplitude multi-annual cycles; (d) chaos. Some interesting results are obtained and they showed that pulsing provides a natural period or cyclicity that allows for a period-doubling route to chaos.     

A model for diffusion of mulucomponent information

The epidemic model of diffusion of news (or disease) is generalized to describe the diffusion of a multi‐component information. The multivaluedness of information in our model arises due to the large number (k) of constituent components or items of the information in question. When the different components of information are assumed to bear no hierarchy, the master equation of the model contains an intractably large number of variables (2 ^k ). The dynamics of the model, however, displays some simplifying features, one of which is the conservation of homogeneity of distribution of population over the different information vectors (in the sense defined in the text). The homogenized version of the model is found to be numerically tractable. The growth curves for large k continue to display sigmoid shapes, but with large ‘saturation times’. The dependence of ‘saturation time’ (i.e. the time required for spread of all the information in almost the entire population) on various parameters of the model, for uniform initial distributions, is numerically investigated. The ‘saturation time’ is found to vary inversely with the intensity of interaction (ß) and the size of population (N), as expected. An important numerical feature that emerges is that the ‘saturation time’ seems to be in linear proportion to the number of information items (k).     

Non‐linear systems in plankton population dynamics and nitrogen cycles

In this paper we propose a new perspective of population dynamics of plankton, by considering some effects of global ecological cycles, in which a mixed population of plankton is embedded. The propagation of plankton is extremely influenced by various material cycles, such as Nitrogen cycles. Taking this global effect into consideration, we will construct a mathematical model of non‐linear system. Our model is a non‐linear, non‐equilibrium system based on a stochastic model realizing population dynamics of a mixed population of two species of plankton which is placed in a global nitrogen cycle. We show, in this article, that our model gives a new mathematical foundation of phenomena such as water blooms and the predominance of one type of plankton against the other. We calculate the probability of the occurrence of the water bloom of a mixed population and that is where one type of plankton predominates. We show, as a characteristic feature of our model, that the function of predominance has some discontinuity and that there exists a threshold point among the initial values, with respect to the type of plankton that predominates the other. In other words, there is a sort of phase transition in dynamic changes of plankton population, as a result of global ecological cycles. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of partial immunity on transmission dynamics of dengue disease with optimal control

Dengue fever is one of the most dangerous vector‐borne diseases in the world in terms of death and economic cost. Hence, the modeling of dengue fever is of great significance to understand the dynamics of dengue. In this paper, we extend dengue disease transmission models by including transmit vaccinated class, in which a portion of recovered individual loses immunity and moves to the susceptibles with limited immunity and hence a less transmission probability. We obtain the threshold dynamics governed by the basic reproduction number R₀; it is shown that the disease‐free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R₀ ≤ 1, and the system is uniformly persistence if R₀ > 1. We do sensitivity analysis in order to identify the key factors that greatly affect the dengue infection, and the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) values for R₀ shows that the bitting rate is the most effective in lowering dengue new infections, and moreover, control of mosquito size plays an essential role in reducing equilibrium level of dengue infection. Hence, the public are highly suggested to control population size of mosquitoes and to use mosquito nets. By formulating the control objective, associated with the low infection and costs, we propose an optimal control question. By the application of optimal control theory, we analyze the existence of optimal control and obtain necessary conditions for optimal controls. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effectiveness of control strategies; these simulations recommended that control measures such as protection from mosquito bites and mosquito eradication strategies effectively control and eradicate the dengue infections during the whole epidemic.     

Periodic solution of a neutral delay model of single-species population growth on time scales

By using a fixed point theorem of strict-set-contraction, we present some sufficient conditions for the existence of at least one positive ω-periodic solution to a neutral delay model of single-species population growth on time scales. The significance of the present paper is that we address an open problem introduced by Kuang [Kuang Y. Delay differential equations with applications in population dynamics. New York: Academic Press; 1993] on time scales.     

Two Degree-Of-Freedom Online Compensation of a Piezoelectric Micro-Positioning Unit

Due to their almost unlimited resolution and fast dynamics, piezoelectric actuators are a common choice for mechatronic systems targeting positioning tasks with high demands on precision. However, these piezoelectric actuators inherently suffer from nonlinear characteristics (mainly hysteresis and creep effects) which need to be addressed by appropriate control strategies. The operator-based modified Prandtl-Ishlinksii (mPI) approach does not only model hysteresis effects with asymmetries and creep effects but also provides an analytical solution for its inverse model. Online feedforward compensation of the aforementioned nonlinear effects can be realized by using the inverse model and additional weight adaptation. In this paper, online compensation via the mPI model is applied to a commercial micro-positioning unit driven by piezoelectric actuators with more than one degree of freedom (DOF). For validation of the proposed approach, two coupled trajectories in the X-Y plane are utilized. Subsequent tracking error analysis validates the efficacy of the stated approach. (© 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Spread of a disease and its effect on population dynamics in an eco-epidemiological system

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with simple law of mass action and modified Holling type II functional response has been proposed and analyzed to understand how a disease may spread among natural populations. The proposed model is a modification of the model presented by Upadhyay et al. (2008) [1]. Existence of the equilibria and their stability analysis (linear and nonlinear) has been studied. The dynamical transitions in the model have been studied by identifying the existence of backward Hopf-bifurcations and demonstrated the period-doubling route to chaos when the death rate of predator (μ₁) and the growth rate of susceptible prey population (r) are treated as bifurcation parameters. Our studies show that the system exhibits deterministic chaos when some control parameters attain their critical values. Chaotic dynamics is depicted using the 2D parameter scans and bifurcation analysis. Possible implications of the results for disease eradication or its control are discussed.     

The dual weighted residuals approach to optimal control of ordinary differential equations

The methodology of dual weighted residuals is applied to an optimal control problem for ordinary differential equations. The differential equations are discretized by finite element methods. An a posteriori error estimate is derived and an adaptive algorithm is formulated. The algorithm is implemented in Matlab and tested on a simple model problem from vehicle dynamics.     

Aging of spherical spin glasses

Sompolinski and Zippelius (1981) propose the study of dynamical systems whose invariant measures are the Gibbs measures for (hard to analyze) statistical physics models of interest. In the course of doing so, physicists often report of an “aging” phenomenon. For example, aging is expected to happen for the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, a disordered mean-field model with a very complex phase transition in equilibrium at low temperature. We shall study the Langevin dynamics for a simplified spherical version of this model. The induced rotational symmetry of the spherical model reduces the dynamics in question to an N-dimensional coupled system of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes whose random drift parameters are the eigenvalues of certain random matrices. We obtain the limiting dynamics for N approaching infinity and by analyzing its long time behavior, explain what is aging (mathematically speaking), what causes this phenomenon, and what is its relationship with the phase transition of the corresponding equilibrium invariant measures. Received: 8 July 1999 / Revised version: 2 June 2000 / Published online: 6 April 2001     

Modelling of closed-chain manipulators on an excavator vehicle

The main focus of this paper is to develop a physics-based model for a closed-chain manipulator in an excavator vehicle. The derivation of closed-chain manipulator dynamic equations with a structure similar to open-chain manipulator equations is an important research problem, particularly with reference to controller design. In this paper, an approach for deriving closed-chain manipulator equations with an open-chain structure, based on trigonometric t-formulae, is presented. Holonomic loop closure constraints are employed in order to derive the closed-chain mechanism dynamics from the reduced system dynamics. The closed-chain equations, with a structure similar to serial link equations, are presented. The model incorporates the dynamic properties of the manipulator and bucket. The dynamic model for the excavation system is validated against measured data obtained from a full-scale closed-chain excavator vehicle. A dynamic model is important for the design of control strategies for trajectory tracking, a key requirement for automating the excavation task. It is noted that even though the results presented in this paper are focused on a particular excavator vehicle, the research is generic and can be adapted to any closed-chain manipulator.