组合时间序列ARMA模型在经济预测中的应用——内蒙古十一五期间GDP预测

2006—2010年是内蒙古"十一五"规划的重要时期.利用组合ARMA时间序列模型,对内蒙古2006—2010年GDP进行预测,得出的结果能够帮助我们把握"十一五"期间经济运行的变动趋势,并寻求最佳的调控办法.     

FEM Analysis of the Three-Dimensional Buckling Problem for a Clamped Thick Rectangular Plate Made of a Viscoelastic Composite

The buckling instability of a thick rectangular plate made of a viscoelastic composite material is studied. The investigation is carried out within the framework of the three-dimensional linearized theory of stability. The plate edges are clamped and the plate is compressed through the clamps. Moreover, it is assumed that the plate has an initial infinitesimal imperfection, and, as a buckling criterion, the state is taken where this imperfection starts to increase indefinitely at fixed finite values of external compressive forces. From this criterion, the critical time is determined. The corresponding boundary-value problems are solved by employing the three-dimensional FEM and the Laplace transform. The material of the plate is assumed orthotropic, viscoelastic, and homogeneous. Numerical results related to the critical time are presented.     

Transient response of sandwich viscoelastic beams, plates, and shells under impulse loading

The transient response of sandwich beams, plates, and shells with viscoelastic layers under impulse loading is studied using the finite element method. The viscoelastic material behavior is represented by a complex modulus model. An efficient method using the fast Fourier transform is proposed. This method is based on the trigonometric representation of the input signals and the matrix of the transfer functions. The present approach makes it possible to preserve exactly the frequency dependence of the storage and loss moduli of viscoelastic materials. The logarithmic decrements are determined using the steady state vibrations of sandwich structures to characterize their damping properties. Test problems and numerical examples are given to demonstrate the validity and application of the approach suggested in this paper. Submitted to the 11th International Conference on Mechanics of Composite Materials (Riga, June 11–15, 2000). Published in Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 367–378, March–April, 2000.     

基于粘弹性本构模型的双搭接胶结接头应力分析

采用广义Maxwell（麦克斯韦尔）粘弹性本构模型表征胶黏剂的时间相关力学特性,采用Yeoh本构模型描述橡胶材料的超弹性,建立了钢-橡胶双搭接胶结接头的有限元计算模型.在此基础上分析了加载时间对接头粘接界面剪切应力的影响.计算结果表明,剪切应力绝对值随着加载时间的增长而减小.此外,分析了胶层厚度对接头粘接界面剪切应力的影响,随着胶层厚度的增加,剪切应力绝对值呈现明显的增大趋势.     

On Erdös-Lax theorem

An improved version of the generalized Erdös-Lax theorem is stated and proved.     

一类有限环

本文指出了文 [5 ]的一些错误 ,给出了文 [5 ]定理 1的一个反例 .并给出了一类交换环的等价条件 .     

正交各向异性薄板弯曲问题分裂模量有限元法

讨论了建立分裂模量有限元法的必要性,推导了正交各向异性薄板弯曲问题分裂模量变分原理的泛函,以此为基础建立了该问题的分裂模量有限元法。该模型的特点是其中含有一个被称为分裂因子的参数,通过算例说明:适当调整分裂因子的值,可以达到调整有限元模型的刚度、降低有限元刚度矩阵的谱条件数、克服常规有限元病态问题的目的,最后分析了克服病态问题的机理。     

组合杂交有限元方法对等参双线性Q4-平板元的粗网格精度改进

组合杂交有限元法具有增强低阶位移格式粗网格精度的内在机制，能量误差为零的组合杂交格式可获得改进的粗网络精度，而其中组合参数起着极其重要的作用，采用最简便的四边形位移＼应力模式作为对协调双线性Q4—平板元的改进：协调等参双线性位移插值和纯粹常应力模式，通过调整组合参数，得到了组合杂交元的优化型，数值试验表明这种参数一调整型显改进了协调Q4—元，达到粗网格高精度，由于应力参数可在单元水平消去，这种组合杂交改进型的计算量与协调Q4—元相当。