基于提取权重的概率神经网络算法在陶瓷鉴定中的应用

通过提取陶瓷样品对瓷器鉴定的影响因素,采用了基于欧氏距离分析法,得到了各个因素的权重,从而能够确定影响因素的关键因素.通过关键因素作为神经网络模型输入变量,建立基于提取权重的概率神经网络算法.实例分析表明:算法通过提取权重能够提高分类准确度.在大样本实例分析中,算法比其他统计分析和相似度算法具有更快的收敛速度,并能够应用到其它数据处理中,具有广泛的适用性.     

基于GRNN神经网络的变权组合预测的权重确定方法

为使组合预测的组合权重随样本数据不同而改变,从而使误差平方和达到最小,我们使用二次规划对样本每期组合权重进行确定.利用所得权重样本对广义神经网络训练使其对样本外组合权重进行确定.结果表明:这是一种可行得组合预测方法,能够提高预测精度,为变权组合预测增添了一种可行方法.     

基于模糊神经网络的动车组转向架健康评估

动车组转向架的健康状态直接关系到到动车组的行车安全,基于健康评估方法获取其健康状态及时制定维护计划可以有效降低其维护费用.动车组转向架健康状态评估时应用了模糊层次分析法以及BP神经网络,其模糊矩阵的特征向量用遗传算法进行求解,获取动车组转向架系统关键部件健康状态的权重,以及基于转向架系统评价指标的健康状态样本数据.构建BP神经网络,用转向架健康状态样本数据作为神经网络训练集,优化神经网络结构参数.通过实际测试数据对神经网络评估效果进行检验,完成了动车组转向架健康评估方法的智能化,支持了动车组转向架的维护决策.     

基于知识的模糊神经网络的旋转机械故障诊断

提出了一种基于知识的模糊神经网络并用于故障诊断．首先基于粗糙集对样本数据进行初步规则获取,并计算规则的依赖度和条件覆盖度,然后根据规则数目进行模糊神经网络结构部分设计,规则的依赖度和条件覆盖度用于设定网络初始权重,而用遗产算法对神经网络输出参数进行优化．这样的模糊神经网络称为基于知识的模糊神经网络．使用该网络对旋转机械常见故障进行诊断,结果表明,和一般模糊神经网络相比,该网络具有训练时间短而诊断率高的特点．     

基于概率和权重信息的二元组概率权重研究

由于现存的三种概率权重表示方法在运算过程中会造成一定程度的信息丢失,所以本文结合概率和权重信息提出二元组概率权重的概念.为了不失一般性,介绍了实值二元组,并借助实值二元组的基本运算、运算性质和排序函数来说明二元组概率权重的相关概念.最后,基于二元组概率权重提出了二元组概率权重有序平均(2TPWOA)算子,并通过具体实例...     

基于灰色神经网络的航空装备作战携行量预测

当前局势多变且节奏迅速的现代高新技术战争使得航空装备需求量与损耗率激增,航空装备保障人员也面临着战时保障情况复杂、决策难度增加的问题.在BP神经网络的基础上使用灰色理论对其进行了优化,将得到的灰色BP神经网络对航空装备作战携行数量进行了预测并与一般BP神经网络和GM(1,1)模型预测结果对比.结果表明:灰色BP神经网络预测精度高、收敛速度快、所需样本数据少,对航空装备作战携行数量预测具有重要价值.     

基于RDEU模型在贝叶斯决策分析中引人概率权重函数的研究:以Prelec概率权重函数为例

对有后验概率分布的决策问题进行贝叶斯分析,决策个体对概率的估计偏差未在考虑之内,导致不同决策者的分析结果并无差异,针对该问题,基于等级依赖期望效用模型中概率权重函数影响决策的机制,在贝叶斯分析中引入概率权重函数,体现决策个体对概率的不同估计,能很好克服贝叶斯决策分析的不足.以Prelec概率权重函数为例的分析表明概率权重函数的引入合理有效,可提升决策分析的针对性.     

考虑决策者行为的概率不确定语言决策方法

针对属性权重未知的不确定语言多属性群决策问题,提出一种考虑决策者行为的概率不确定语言决策方法.首先,定义概率不确定语言的海明距离,根据与负理想方案的距离偏差最大建立模型,从而确定属性权重.其次,改进经典TODIM方法适用于概率不确定语言决策环境中,得到了方案排序.最后,通过实例验证了所给方法的可行性,并对比传统的TOPSIS方法进行敏感度分析,进一步验证所提方法的有效性.     

遗传优化RBPNN的隧道围岩力学参数反演计算

针对隧道围岩参数取值的不确定性,以现场量测得到的位移信息量为基础,利用结构分析有限元的正演分析法提取实验样本,构造遗传算法全结构优化的径向基概率神经网络(RBPNN)模型,反演围岩力学参数.结果表明,利用遗传优化径向基概率神经网络反演围岩力学参数能够达到工程应用要求,为隧道施工的理论及其工程化方法提供了有效的途径.     

基于组合权重的系统评价模型

提出了基于组合权重的系统评价新模型 ( CWSE) ,即 :直接根据评价指标样本数据集 ,用基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪方法确定各评价指标的分类权重 ,用基于加速遗传算法的层次分析法确定各评价指标的排序权重 ,用加速遗传算法对各评价指标的分类权重和排序权重进行综合得到组合权重 ,然后以这些组合权重与各评价对象相应评价指标的标准化值进行加权平均 ,得到系统评价的综合指标值 ,据此可对各评价对象进行分类排序 .用 CW SE模型评价中国 30个区域 1995年开发度的结果表明 ,根据开发度的强弱可把这些区域分成 3个强开发区域、6个较强开发区域、10个中等开发区域和 11个弱开发区域 ;CWSE模型简便、通用 ,计算结果较为客观和稳定 ,为系统工程理论和实践提供了新的研究方法 .     

正交试验层次分析法

提出了一种正交试验数据分析的新方法——正交试验层次分析法(AnalyticHierarchyProcess,简称AHP).应用层次分析(AHP)对不考虑交互作用的正交试验进行统计分析,得出各因素各水平对试验结果的影响权重,从而确定因素的主次顺序及最佳条件.实验结果表明,应用AHP对正交试验进行分析得到的结论与传统的直观分析法一致.     

Crankshaft-bearing evolution indexes investigation and asperity contact identification based on neural network

The dynamic and lubrication characteristic analyses of the crankshaft–bearing system is quite a complex problem, and it is important to avoid asperity contact which may lead to bearing wear and increase of friction loss significantly in dynamic lubrication condition. In this paper, the dynamic characteristic that has an essential impact on lubrication was investigated over an inline six-cylinder engine. Multi-body dynamics method, tribology, finite element method (FEM), finite difference method (FDM) and component mode synthesis method (CMS) were combined to analyze the dynamic characteristic of crankshaft, oil leakage, oil film pressure, asperity contact pressure and friction loss. Then the orthogonal experiment that included 5 levels and 6 factors was conducted to obtain the training sample sets for neural network, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) was employed to identify weather the asperity contact happened or not according to its nonlinear characteristic. The analyses which can provide the guidance for the design of main bearing, and avoid the asperity contact in the lubrication are significant to the design of the bearing at the development stage of the engine.     

G-PNN: A genetically engineered probabilistic neural network

The probabilistic neural network (PNN) is a neural network architecture that approximates the functionality of the Bayesian classifier, the optimal classifier. Designing the optimal Bayesian classifier is infeasible in practice, since the distributions of data belonging to each class are unknown. PNN is an approximation of the Bayesian classifier by approximating these distributions using the Parzen window approach. One of the criticisms of the PNN classifier is that, at times, it uses a lot of training data for its design. Furthermore, the PNN classifier requires that the user specifies certain network parameters, called the smoothing (spread) parameters, in order to approximate the distributions of the class data, which is not an easy task. A number of approaches have been reported in the literature for addressing both of these issues (i.e., reducing the number of training data needed for the building of the PNN model and producing good values for the smoothing parameters). In this effort, genetic algorithms are used to achieve both goals at once, and some promising results are reported.     

基于DS/AHP的供应商选择方法

供应商选择方法有很多种，在众多的方法中层次分析法以能够将定性指标定量化而被广泛应用于供应商选择决策中。考虑到供应商选择问题中包含有很多的不确定性而证据理论在处理不确定问题又有着独特的优点，因此本文采用了一种由层次分析法和证据理论结合而产生的DS／AHP决策方法，并将其应用于供应商选择决策问题中，该方法综合了层次分析法和证据理论的优点，可以更科学的进行供应商选择决策，最后通过一个例子说明这种方法在供应商选择中的应用。     

Does AHP help us make a choice? An experimental evaluation

In this paper, we use experimental economics methods to test how well Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) fares as a choice support system in a real decision problem. AHP provides a ranking that we statistically compare with three additional rankings given by the subjects in the experiment: one at the beginning, one after providing AHP with the necessary pair-wise comparisons and one after learning the ranking provided by AHP. While the rankings vary widely across subjects, we observe that for each individual all four rankings are similar. Hence, subjects are consistent and AHP is, for the most part, able to replicate their rankings. Furthermore, while the rankings are similar, we do find that the AHP ranking helps the decision makers reformulate their choices by taking into account suggestions made by AHP.     

Empirical properties of group preference aggregation methods employed in AHP: Theory and evidence

We study various methods of aggregating individual judgments and individual priorities in group decision making with the AHP. The focus is on the empirical properties of the various methods, mainly on the extent to which the various aggregation methods represent an accurate approximation of the priority vector of interest. We identify five main classes of aggregation procedures which provide identical or very similar empirical expressions for the vectors of interest. We also propose a method to decompose in the AHP response matrix distortions due to random errors and perturbations caused by cognitive biases predicted by the mathematical psychology literature. We test the decomposition with experimental data and find that perturbations in group decision making caused by cognitive distortions are more important than those caused by random errors. We propose methods to correct the systematic distortions.     

AHP的检验方法及其比较分析

介绍了目前较有影响的三种ＡＨＰ一致性检验算法,并对其作了比较分析,最后提出了一种检验算法的选择准则     

基于改进粒子群算法的模糊聚类-概率神经网络模型的企业财务危机预警模型研究

为了充分发挥概率神经网络在企业财务危机预警中的作用,克服概率神经网络平滑参数难以确定和空间复杂度高的不足,本文提出一类新的参数动态调整的粒子群算法优化概率神经网络的平滑参数,进而采用改进粒子群算法优化初始隶属度矩阵的模糊聚类方法实现对样本的选择,解决了概率神经网络平滑参数的确定及空间结构复杂的问题。提出了基于改进粒子群算法的模糊聚类-概率神经网络企业财务危机预警模型,并以我国上市公司作为研究对象进行了实证研究。结果表明,经过模糊聚类和改进粒子群算法优化的概率神经网络具有更优的预测性能,并在企业财务危机长期预警方面具有一定效用。     

Interval statistic based reliability analysis method on small sample hot test of satellite thruster

As one of the most important components of satellites, the thruster must maintain high reliability, but the assessment is difficult when lacking test failure data. When conducting hot test of the satellite thruster, we encountered the problem of reliability assessment on type-I censored data with only one failure, which is common for small sample tests. This paper proposes a novel interval statistic based reliability analysis method, which can fulfill the life information from the failure time to the censored time ignored by conventional methods, and improve the assessment accuracy. In this paper, a life distribution model is established by proper failure mechanism analysis and prior test information exploitation. As thrust chamber burning-through has been considered as the main failure mode, life test of the chamber coating was conducted under different thermal conditions to obtain the model parameter. Based on the interval statistic theory, a detailed derivation is illustrated. Then, reliability assessment and life prediction for the satellite thruster in both transfer orbit phase and synchronous orbit phase have been achieved, and the results show that our method performs very well, which provides an important way for dealing with test data with only one failure.     

基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型

运用BP神经网络技术,采用动量BP算法,构建了基于动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型,并将AHP的评价结果作为学习样本,对BP神经网络模型进行训练和测试.结果表明,基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型是可行的,该模型具有较高的自组织、自适应和自学习能力以及较强的容错功能,能够为一般的工程项目承包商选择活动提供有效的参考和依据.