HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY DYNAMICS OF GLAUCOUS‐WINGED GULLS (LARUS GLAUCESCENS) I: A DISCRETE‐TIME MODEL

ABSTRACT. Diurnal habitat occupancy dynamics of Glaucous‐winged Gulls were evaluated in a system of six habitats on and around Protection Island, Washington. Data were collected on the rates of gull movement between habitat patches, and from these data the probabilities of transitions between habitats were estimated as functions of tide height and time of day. A discrete‐time matrix model based on the transition probabilities was used to generate habitat occupancy predictions, which were then compared to hourly census data. All model parameters were estimated directly from data rather than through model fitting. The model made reasonable predictions for two of the six habitats and explained 45% of the variability in the data from 2003. The construction and testing of mathematical models that predict occupancies in multiple habitats may play increasingly important roles in the understanding and management of animal populations within complex environments.     

(CMMSE paper) A finite‐difference model for indoctrination dynamics

In this work, a system of non‐linear difference equations is employed to model the opinion dynamics between a small group of agents (the target group) and a very persuasive agent (the indoctrinator). Two scenarios are investigated: the indoctrination of a homogeneous target group, in which each agent grants the same weight to his (or her) partner's opinion and the indoctrination of a heterogenous target group, in which each agent may grant a different weight to his or her partner's opinion. Simulations are performed to study the required times by the indoctrinator to convince a group. Initially, these groups are in a consensus about a doctrine different to that of the ideologist. The interactions between the agents are pairwise.