MODELING THE DEPLETION OF A RENEWABLE RESOURCE BY POPULATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION: EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGY ON ITS CONSERVATION

Abstract In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of a renewable resource by population and industrialization with resource‐dependent migration. The effect of technology on resource conservation is also considered. In the modeling process, four variables are considered, namely, density of a renewable resource, population density, density of industrialization, and technological effort. Both the growth rate and carrying capacity of resource biomass, which follows logistic model, are assumed to be simultaneously depleted by densities of population and industrialization but it is conserved by technological effort. It is further assumed that densities of population and industrialization increase due to increase in the density of renewable resource. The growth rate of technological effort is assumed to be proportional to the difference of carrying capacity of resource biomass and its current density. The model is analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the biomass density decreases due to increase in densities of population and industrialization. It decreases further as the resource‐dependent industrial migration increases. But the resource may never become extinct due to population and industrialization, if technological effort is applied appropriately for its conservation.     

WILDLIFE RESERVES,POPULATIONS, AND HUNTING OUTCOME WITH SMART WILDLIFE

We consider a hunting area and a wildlife reserve and answer the question: How does clever migration decision affect the social optimal and the private optimal hunting levels and population stocks? We analyze this in a model allowing for two‐way migration between hunting and reserve areas, where the populations’ migration decisions depend on both hunting pressure and relative population densities. In the social optimum a pure stress effect on the behavior of smart wildlife exists. This implies that the population level in the wildlife reserve tends to increase and the population level in the hunting area and hunting levels tend to decrease. On the other hand, the effect on stock tends to reduce the population in the wildlife reserve and increase the population in the hunting area and thereby also increase hunting. In the case of the private optimum, open‐access is assumed and we find that the same qualitative results arise when comparing a situation with and without stress effects, but of course at a higher level of hunting. We also show that when net social benefits of hunting dominate the net social benefits of populations, wildlife reserves are optimally placed in areas of low carrying capacity and vice versa.     

ALLEE EFFECTS: POPULATION GROWTH,CRITICAL DENSITY,AND THE CHANCE OF EXTINCTION

This paper develops mathematical models to describe the growth, critical density, and extinction probability in sparse populations experiencing Allee effects. An Allee effect (or depensation) is a situation at low population densities where the per-individual growth rate is an increasing function of population density. A potentially important mechanism causing Allee effects is a shortage of mating encounters in sparse populations. Stochastic models are proposed for predicting the probability of encounter or the frequency of encounter as a function of population density. A negative exponential function is derived as such an encounter function under very general biological assumptions, including random, regular, or aggregated spatial patterns. A rectangular hyperbola function, heretofore used in ecology as the functional response of predator feeding rate to prey density, arises from the negative exponential function when encounter probabilities are assumed heterogeneous among individuals. These encounter functions produce Allee effects when incorporated into population growth models as birth rates. Three types of population models with encounter-limited birth rates are compared: (1) deterministic differential equations, (2) stochastic discrete birth-death processes, and (3) stochastic continuous diffusion processes. The phenomenon of a critical density, a major consequence of Allee effects, manifests itself differently in the different types of models. The critical density is a lower unstable equilibrium in the deterministic differential equation models. For the stochastic discrete birth-death processes considered here, the critical density is an inflection point in the probability of extinction plotted as a function of initial population density. In the continuous diffusion processes, the critical density becomes a local minimum (antimode) in the stationary probability distribution for population density. For both types of stochastic models, a critical density appears as an inflection point in the probability of attaining a small population density (extinction) before attaining a large one. Multiplicative (“environmental”) stochastic noise amplifies Allee effects. Harvesting also amplifies those effects. Though Allee effects are difficult to detect or measure in natural populations, their presence would seriously impact exploitation, management, and preservation of biological resources.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Transitions in a logistic population model incorporating an Allee effect

In some species, the population may decline to zero; that is, the species becomes extinct if the population falls below a given threshold. This phenomenon is well known as an Allee effect. In most Allee models, the model parameters are constants, and the population tends either to a nonzero limiting state (survival) or to zero (extinction). However, when environmental changes occur, these parameters may be slowly varying functions of time. Then, application of multitiming techniques allows us to construct approximations to the evolving population in cases where the population survives to a slowly varying surviving state and those where the population declines to zero. Here, we investigate the solution of a logistic population model exhibiting an Allee effect, when the carrying capacity and the limiting density interchange roles, via a transition point. We combine multiscaling analysis with local asymptotic analysis at the transition point to obtain an overall expression for the evolution of the population. We show that this shows excellent agreement with the results of numerical computations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population model with diffusion and supplementary forest resource in a two-patch habitat

A mathematical model is proposed to study the role of supplementary self-renewable resource on species population in a two-patch habitat. It is assumed that the density of forest resource biomass is governed by the logistic equation in both the regions but with the different intrinsic growth rate but the same carrying capacity in the entire habitat. It is further assumed that the densities of species population is also governed by the generalized logistic equations in both the regions but with different growth rates and carrying capacities. It is shown that the steady state solutions are positive, monotonic and continuous under both reservoir and no-flux boundary conditions. The linear and non-linear asymptotic stability conditions of non-uniform steady state are compared with the case of the model with and without diffusion in a homogeneous habitat.     

CONSTANT EFFORT AND CONSTANT QUOTAFISHING POLICIES WITH CUT-OFFS IN A RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

ABSTRACT. Consider a population subjected to constant effort or constant quota fishing with a generaldensity-dependence population growth function (because that function is poorly known). Consider environmental random fluctuations that either affect an intrinsic growth parameter or birth/death rates, thus resulting in two stochastic differential equations models. From previous results of ours, we obtain conditions for non-extinction and for existence of a population size stationary density. Constant quota (which always leads to extinction in random environments) and constant effort policies are studied; they are hard to implement for extreme population sizes. Introducing cut-offs circumvents these drawbacks. In a deterministic environment, for a wide range of values, cutting-off does not affect the steady-state yield. This is not so in a random environment and we will give expressions showing how steady-state average yield and population size distribution vary as functions of cut-off choices. We illustrate these general results with function plots for the particular case of logistic growth.     

FISHING YIELD,CURVATURE AND SPATIAL BEHAVIOR: IMPLICATIONS FOR MODELING MARINE RESERVES

ABSTRACT. Given a paucity of empirical data, policymakers are forced to rely on modeling to assess potential impacts of creating marine reserves to manage fisheries. Many modeling studies of reserves conclude that fishing yield will increase (or decrease only modestly) after creating a reserve in a heavily exploited fishery. However, much of the marine reserves modeling ignores the spatial heterogeneity of fishing behavior. Contrary to empirical findings in fisheries science and economics, most models assume explicitly or implicitly that fishing effort is distributed uniformly over space. This paper demonstrates that by ignoring this heterogeneity, yield‐per‐recruit models systematically overstate the yield gains (or understate the losses) from creating a reserve in a heavily exploited fishery. Conversely, at very low levels of exploitation, models that ignore heterogeneous fishing effort overstate the fishing yield losses from creating a reserve. Starting with a standard yield‐per‐recruit model, the paper derives a yield surface that maps spatially differentiated fishing effort into total long‐run fishing yield. It is the curvature of this surface that accounts for why the spatial distribution of fishing effort so greatly affects predicted changes from forming a reserve. The results apply generally to any model in which the long‐run fishing yield has similar curvature to a two‐patch Beverton‐Holt model. A simulation of marine reserve formation in the California red sea urchin fishery with Beverton‐Holt recruitment, eleven patches, and common larval pool dispersal dynamics reinforces these results.     

THE ECONOMICS OF MARINE RESERVES

ABSTRACT. Marine reserves can be a useful supplement to other methods of fisheries management, but marine reserves alone are not likely to achieve a great deal in economic terms andperhaps not even in terms of conservation. The effects of marine reserves with open access elsewhere are analyzed, using a logistic model for a population with a patchy distribution. It is assumedthat a marine reserve is establishedfor the territory of one of two sub‐populations which interact through migrations. The total population increases while the total catch declines for the most part. A high rate of migration would, however, dilute the conservation effect. Examining a stochastic variant of the model shows that the variability (sum of squareddeviations) of catches may decrease as a result of protecting one of the sub‐populations. Even if all rents disappear by assumption, it is possible to identify this as an economic benefit, particularly when the average catch increases. The variability of the catch falls for a range of values of the population migration parameter and variability of growth, both when the stochastic disturbances are independent and when they are perfectly correlated for the two sub‐populations, andalso when the growth variability parameter differs between the sub‐populations.     

POPULATION AND HARVESTING THEORY FOR NONLINEAR SEX AND AGE-STRUCTURED RESOURCES

A sex-age-structured population model with density dependence in the conversion of reproductive potentials into zygotes and in first year survivorship is described. The model has two equilibria; the smallest is mathematically unstable, and the origin and the larger equilibrium are locally stable. The population can thus go extinct for certain initial states, or if the two equilibria coincide. The ratio between the two equilibria can be regarded as a measure of the risk of extinction, since it is related to the chance that detrimental environmental conditions will cause the population to enter the region of attraction of the origin. In simple monoecious models, recovery to former levels is only possible provided that the population is not driven to extinction before harvesting effort is reduced. Ratios between the two unexploited equilibria, and between the stable unexploited equilibrium and the recruitment level at which the two equilibria coincide are given solely in terms of the degree of density dependence in the model. I show that the harvesting strategy which maximizes the equilibrium yield has a four age form, involving harvesting of at most two male and two female age classes. Out of ten commercial Pacific groundfish species, knife-edge selectivity sustainable yields of eight are at least 90% of ultimate sustainable yield (USY). With no effort restrictions, the range of lengths at first capture which achieve more than 60% of USY is narrow. When one of the sexes is not harvested, sustainable yield is between 20% and 80% of USY, but lowest when females are not harvested.     

OPTIMAL HARVESTING WITH DENSITY DEPENDENT RANDOM EFFECTS

We consider the effect of sudden large, randomly occurring density dependent disasters on the optimal harvest policy and optimal expected return for an exploited population. The population is assumed to grow logistically with disasters occurring on a time scale very short compared to the natural growth scale. The case of a density dependent disaster frequency is also treated. Stochastic dynamic programming is used in the optimization. For a set of realistic field data it is found that random effects typically have a significant effect on both optimal return and optimal effort levels. The effect of density dependence is far more pronounced for optimal return than for optimal effort levels.     

MARINE RESERVES AS A MEASURE TO CONTROL BYCATCH PROBLEMS: THE IMPORTANCE OF MULTISPECIES INTERACTIONS

ABSTRACT. This paper explores the effects of using marine reserves as a measure to control bycatch that is of no commercial value, under different assumptions regarding the ecological interactions between targeted species and that taken as bycatch. Three cases are examined: (1) no ecological interactions between the two species, (2) targeted and bycatch species exist in a predator‐prey relationship and (3) species compete. Targeted species is assumed to consist of two sub‐populations that are discretely distributed in space, but linked through density dependent migration while bycatch species is assumed to consist of one uniformly distributed stock only. In each case the equilibrium stock levels of targeted and by‐catch species, effort and harvest are numerically calculated and compared, assuming pure open access and open access in combination with a reserve. It is of special interest to identify circumstances that allows for a win‐win situation, that is, both harvest of the targeted species and biomass of the bycatch species increase. It is shown that the ecological interactions between the two species influence the possibility of actually protecting the bycatch species through the use of a reserve, the possibility a win‐win situation, and the issue of what patch to close.     

ON THE IMPULSIVE BEVERTON–HOLT EQUATION AND EXTINCTION CONDITIONS IN POPULATION DYNAMICS

Abstract This paper is devoted to investigate extinction and nonextinction conditions of the extended Beverton–Holt equation (BHE) for dynamics of populations in Ecology when potential discontinuities at sampling points are included in the model. The proposed model is described by means of four sequences of parameters. Two of them are the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity sequences which are included in the basic BHE model. The other two ones, namely, the harvesting (i.e., the hunting or fishing quota) and the internal consumption (which can include positive and negative migrations in the considered population habitat) sequences are included to parameterize the model discontinuities. Such discontinuities are related to impulses in the corresponding continuous‐time logistic equation. The obtained results establish how the harvesting quota and/or the internal consumption has to be fixed to guarantee the population nonextinction or, eventually, its extinction. Finally, some controllability results related to the search of a carrying capacity sequence such that the solution of the proposed impulsive BHE tracks a reference one are obtained.     

PERMANENCE OF A NONAUTOMONOUS POPULATION MODEL

1.IntroductionPersistenceofpopulationsplaysanimportantroleinmathematicalecology.Inrecentyears)muchattentionhasbeengiventothepersistenceofnonautomonouspopulationmodelsll--6].[1]proposedtheconceptofpersistenceinthemeanofpopulations.Thisisofimportancebecausenotonlyitprovidesawaytocharacterizethepersistenceofpopula-nons,butalsothereareonlythresholdsbetweenpersistenceinthemeanandtheextinctionofpopulationsforgeneralnonautomonouspopulationmodels.In[2]thethresholdwasestablishedforone-dimensionalnonaut…     

Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment II

This is a continuation of our paper [M. Liu, K. Wang, X. Liu. Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment. Appl Math Model 2011;35:752–62]. This work still devotes to studying three stochastic single-species models in a polluted environment. For the first system, sufficient criteria for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the population are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. For the second model, sufficient conditions for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is derived. For the third system, the threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is obtained.     

An allometric scaling relation based on logistic growth of cities

The relationships between urban area and population size have been empirically demonstrated to follow the scaling law of allometric growth. This allometric scaling is based on exponential growth of city size and can be termed “exponential allometry”, which is associated with the concepts of fractals. However, both city population and urban area comply with the course of logistic growth rather than exponential growth. In this paper, I will present a new allometric scaling based on logistic growth to solve the above mentioned problem. The logistic growth is a process of replacement dynamics. Defining a pair of replacement quotients as new measurements, which are functions of urban area and population, we can derive an allometric scaling relation from the logistic processes of urban growth, which can be termed “logistic allometry”. The exponential allometric relation between urban area and population is the approximate expression of the logistic allometric equation when the city size is not large enough. The proper range of the allometric scaling exponent value is reconsidered through the logistic process. Then, a medium-sized city of Henan Province, China, is employed as an example to validate the new allometric relation. The logistic allometry is helpful for further understanding the fractal property and self-organized process of urban evolution in the right perspective.     

两类两种群动力学方程的稳定性分析

本文研究两种群动力学方程平衡点的稳定性.讨论两个捕食者-食饵-领地模型,模型用1微分方程描述,模型2用积分微分方程描述.得出平衡点稳定的条件.所得结果指出可实现总体的种群稳定而不管局部的绝灭.     

On a logistic growth model with predation and a power‐type diffusion coefficient: I. Existence of solutions and extinction criteria

We consider a logistic growth model with a predation term and a stochastic perturbation yielding constant elasticity of variance. The resulting stochastic differential equation does not satisfy the standard assumptions for existence and uniqueness of solutions, namely, linear growth and the Lipschitz condition. Nevertheless, for any positive initial condition, we prove that a solution exists and is unique up to the first time it hits zero. Additionally, we provide alternative criteria for population extinction depending on the choice of parameters. More precisely, we provide criteria that guarantee the following: (i) population extinction with positive probability for a set of initial conditions with positive Lebesgue measure; (ii) exponentially fast population extinction with full probability for any positive initial condition; and (iii) population extinction in finite time with full probability for any positive initial condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the power law logistic population model with slowly varying coefficients

We apply a multiscale method to construct general analytic approximations for the solution of a power law logistic model, where the model parameters vary slowly in time. Such approximations are a useful alternative to numerical solutions and are applicable to a range of parameter values. We consider two situations—positive growth rates, when the population tends to a slowly varying limiting state; and negative growth rates, where the population tends to zero in infinite time. The behavior of the population when a transition between these situations occurs is also considered. These approximations are shown to give excellent agreement with the numerical solutions of test cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and stability analysis in human population genetics with selection and mutation

Population genetics is a scientific discipline that has extensively benefitted from mathematical modelling; since the Hardy‐Weinberg law (1908) to date, many mathematical models have been designed to describe the genotype frequencies evolution in a population. Existing models differ in adopted hypothesis on evolutionary forces (such as, for example, mutation, selection, and migration) acting in the population. Mathematical analysis of population genetics models help to understand if the genetic population admits an equilibrium, ie, genotype frequencies that will not change over time. Nevertheless, the existence of an equilibrium is only an aspect of a more complex issue concerning the conditions that would allow or prevent populations to reach the equilibrium. This latter matter, much more complex, has been only partially investigated in population genetics studies. We here propose a new mathematical model to analyse the genotype frequencies distribution in a population over time and under two major evolutionary forces, namely, mutation and selection; the model allows for both infinite and finite populations. In this paper, we present our model and we analyse its convergence properties to the equilibrium genotype frequency; we also derive conditions allowing convergence. Moreover, we show that our model is a generalisation of the Hardy‐Weinberg law and of subsequent models that allow for selection or mutation. Some examples of applications are reported at the end of the paper, and the code that simulates our model is available online at https://www.ding.unisannio.it/persone/docenti/del-vecchio for free use and testing.