OPTIMAL DISCOUNTING OF BENEFITS FROM CLEANUP AT WASTE SITES

Abstract This paper uses a general equilibrium optimal growth model to discuss the role of optimal discounting of future benefits from cleanup at high‐level toxic waste sites. Cleanup simultaneously generates two streams of benefits. One of these is directly from utility and the other is indirectly from the added productivity of workers. We note that the optimal discount rate is different for these two types of benefits. Along the optimal path, the former are discounted at the rate of time preference and the latter at the market rate of interest. We achieve this by identifying four components of the shadow value of the stock of toxic waste. These are the utility, productivity, cost, and abundance effects. The distinction between discount rates appears to have been overlooked in the literature but has significant implications for environmental cost‐benefit analysis due to the growing interest in applying zero time preference to environmental problems, (like waste cleanup) whose consequences extend many generations into the future. A numerical example is included to illustrate these concepts.     

随机扰动下的库存投资决策模型

本文讨论的是库存投资的最优决策问题.不同于确定性q理论,对于引入了市场不确定性扰动的库存控制系统,文章建立了库存投资随机优化决策模型.从市场利率波动的角度对库存决策模型进行分析,得出的结论是:小的市场利率的扰动能够提高企业折现利润的预期,进而导致公司库存投资的上升.     

Existence and structure of solutions for a class of optimal control systems with discounting arising in economic dynamics

We study the existence and a turnpike property of solutions of a discrete-time control system with discounting and with a compact metric space of states. In our recent work for this discrete-time optimal control system without discounting we establish the turnpike property and show that it is stable under perturbations of an objective function. In the present paper we show that this turnpike property together with its stability also hold for the system with discounting.     

基于动态利率风险免疫的银行资产负债优化模型

本文以CIR动态久期缺口的免疫条件为约束进行多资产和多负债的利率风险控制,通过建立线性规划模型来进行银行资产的最优配置。本文的创新与特色:一是通过引进随时间变化的动态利率久期参数构造利率风险控制条件,建立了控制利率风险的资产负债优化模型。改变了现有研究忽略利率动态变化、进而忽略平均久期动态变化的弊端。事实上,利率的动态变化必然引起平均久期的变动,忽略利率变动的控制条件是无法高精度地控制资产配置的利率风险的。二是通过以银行资产收益最大为目标函数,以动态利率久期缺口免疫为主要约束条件,辅以监管的流动性约束匹配银行的资产负债,回避了利率风险对银行所有者权益的影响,避免了利率变动对银行资产所有者带来的损害。     

Vasicek利率模型下带有零息票债券的投资-消费模型

应用随机最优控制理论研究Vasicek利率模型下的投资-消费问题,其中假设无风险利率是服从Vasicek利率模型的随机过程,且与股票价格过程存在一般相关性.假设金融市场由一种无风险资产、一种风险资产和一种零息票债券所构成,投资者的目标是最大化中期消费与终端财富的期望贴现效用.应用变量替换方法得到了幂效用下最优投资-消费策略的显示表达式,并分析了最优投资-消费策略对市场参数的灵敏度.     

Cooperative hedging with a higher interest rate for borrowing

The paper studies the cooperative hedging problem of contingent claims in an incomplete financial market. Firstly we give the characterization of the optimal cooperative hedging strategy for the Black-Scholes model and the Volatility Jump model explicitly, then we consider the problem of cooperative hedging for the multi-agent case in a market with a higher borrowing interest rate. By the results of concave and linear backward stochastic differential equations, we give the optimal cooperative hedging strategy in our model.     

基于营运资金信息匹配平台的供应链金融动态折扣决策研究

当前逐渐受到实业界关注的一种新型供应链金融模式是基于营运资金信息匹配平台的动态折扣。本文针对两级供应链的动态折扣决策问题进行建模,揭示了动态折扣的应用对于改善供应链参与方现金流的影响机理。首先通过考虑供需双方动态折扣的独立决策,得出日折扣率的边界条件、双方效用最大时的日折扣率、买方混合还款方式下营运资金的最优准备方案和最低边界值;其次考虑供需双方动态折扣的最优决策,推导出在不同折扣率和利率关系下的最优还款策略,研究表明动态折扣可以明显提升供需双方的利润情况。     

Harvesting of a phytoplankton–zooplankton model

Considering that some phytoplankton and zooplankton are harvested for food, a phytoplankton–zooplankton model with harvesting is proposed and investigated. First, stability conditions of equilibria and existence conditions of a Hopf-bifurcation are established. Our results indicate that over exploitation would result in the extinction of the population and an appropriate harvesting strategy should ensure the sustainability of the population which is in line with reality. Furthermore, the existence of bionomic equilibria and the optimal harvesting policy are discussed. The present value of revenues is maximized by using Pontryagin’s maximum principle subject to the state equations and the control constraints. We discussed the case of optimal equilibrium solution. It is found that the shadow prices remain constant over time in optimal equilibrium when they satisfy the transversality condition. It is established that the zero discounting leads to the maximization of economic revenue and that an infinite discount rate leads to complete dissipation of economic rent. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our results.     

The stochastic capacitated branch restructuring problem

Traditionally, in the fashion industry, purchasing decisions for retailers are made based on various factors such as budget, profit target, and interest rate. Since the market demand is highly volatile, risk is inherently present and it is critically important to incorporate risk consideration into the decision making framework. Motivated by the observed industrial practice, we explore via a mean-variance approach the multi-period risk minimization inventory models for fashion product purchasing. We first construct a basic multi-period risk optimization model for the fashion retailer and illustrate how its optimal solution can be determined by solving a simpler problem. Then, we analytically find that the optimal ordering quantity is increasing in the expected profit target, decreasing in the number of periods of the season, and increasing in the market interest rate. After that, we propose and solve several extended models which consider realistic and timely industrial measures such as minimum ordering quantity, carbon emission tax, and carbon quota. We analytically derive the necessary and sufficient condition(s) for the existence of the optimal solution for each model and show how the purchasing budget, the profit target, and the market interest rate affect the optimal solution. Finally, we investigate the supply chain coordination challenge and analytically illustrate how an upstream manufacturer can offer implementable supply contracts to optimize the supply chain.     

Optimal consumption–investment strategy under the Vasicek model: HARA utility and Legendre transform

This paper studies the optimal consumption–investment strategy with multiple risky assets and stochastic interest rates, in which interest rate is supposed to be driven by the Vasicek model. The objective of the individuals is to seek an optimal consumption–investment strategy to maximize the expected discount utility of intermediate consumption and terminal wealth in the finite horizon. In the utility theory, Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion (HARA) utility consists of CRRA utility, CARA utility and Logarithmic utility as special cases. In addition, HARA utility is seldom studied in continuous-time portfolio selection theory due to its sophisticated expression. In this paper, we choose HARA utility as the risky preference of the individuals. Due to the complexity of the structure of the solution to the original Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, we use Legendre transform to change the original non-linear HJB equation into its linear dual one, whose solution is easy to conjecture in the case of HARA utility. By calculations and deductions, we obtain the closed-form solution to the optimal consumption–investment strategy in a complete market. Moreover, some special cases are also discussed in detail. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate our results.     

Optimal investment strategies and risk-sharing arrangements for a hybrid pension plan

A continuous time stochastic model is used to study a hybrid pension plan, where both the contribution and benefit levels are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan, with risk sharing between different generations. The pension fund is invested in a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets. The objective is to seek an optimal investment strategy and optimal risk-sharing arrangements for plan trustees and participants so that this proposed hybrid pension system provides adequate and stable income to retirees while adjusting contributions effectively, as well as keeping its sustainability in the long run. These goals are achieved by minimizing the expected discount disutility of intermediate adjustment for both benefits and contributions and that of terminal wealth in finite time horizon. Using the stochastic optimal control approach, closed-form solutions are derived under quadratic loss function and exponential loss function. Numerical analysis is presented to illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal strategies to parameters of the financial market and how the optimal benefit changes with respect to different risk aversions. Through numerical analysis, we find that the optimal strategies do adjust the contributions and retirement benefits according to fund performance and model objectives so the intergenerational risk sharing seem effectively achieved for this collective hybrid pension plan.     

Local stability of stationary states in discounted optimal control systems

This paper presents local optimality and stability conditions for stationary solutions of autonomous optimal control problems with a positive rate of discounting. The conditions do not require the Hamiltonian function to be concave with respect to the state variables. Two examples from optimal economic growth theory are discussed to show that our results can be applied in situations when other known stability conditions fail to be satisfied.Part of this paper was written while the author visited the Faculty of Management at the University of Toronto. Support from SSHRC Grant 410-83-9888 and from Grant P6601 of the Austrian Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.     

Optimal liquidation under partial information with price impact

We study the optimal liquidation problem in a market model where the bid price follows a geometric pure jump process whose local characteristics are driven by an unobservable finite-state Markov chain and by the liquidation rate. This model is consistent with stylized facts of high frequency data such as the discrete nature of tick data and the clustering in the order flow. We include both temporary and permanent effects into our analysis. We use stochastic filtering to reduce the optimal liquidation problem to an equivalent optimization problem under complete information. This leads to a stochastic control problem for piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). We carry out a detailed mathematical analysis of this problem. In particular, we derive the optimality equation for the value function, we characterize the value function as continuous viscosity solution of the associated dynamic programming equation, and we prove a novel comparison result. The paper concludes with numerical results illustrating the impact of partial information and price impact on the value function and on the optimal liquidation rate.     

Product damage and free sampling: a newsvendor model with passive and proactive self-consumption

A retailer sells a single product for a single period. During transportation and storage, some of these products are consumed by the retailer either (1) due to unavoidable damages (passive self-consumption), or (2) distributed for free to the customers (proactive self-consumption). This creates a mismatch between the amount purchased by the retailer and the amount available for sale. We study passive self-consumption with (i) fixed and (ii) proportional consumption, and proactive self-consumption with (iii) additive and (iv) multiplicative demand. Under proactive self-consumption, the retailer holds more inventory and receives a higher profit; the reverse is true under passive self-consumption. Yet, (i), (iii) and (iv) result in a higher order quantity and same fill rate compared to no self-consumption, (ii) may result in a higher or lower order quantity with a lower fill rate. When both types of self-consumption coexist, the optimal policy can be complicated. We characterize the optimal policy and show through numerical studies that the optimal policy can take at most three formats: sell to the market with positive proactive self-consumption, sell to the market with zero proactive self-consumption and do not sell to the market. Interestingly, the optimal order quantity is not smooth in the fraction of the proportional self-consumption. Further we find that when the market adoption rate is uncertain, the optimal strategy preserves a similar structure. The retailer benefits from expediting if the difference between the high and the low market adoption rates is high and the probability of a high market adoption rate is low.     

WHY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY MAY LEAD TO MORE RISKY BEHAVIOR

The purpose of this article is to investigate circumstances under which it may be optimal to deliberately harvest a fish stock to extinction applying a stochastic surplus growth model. It is known from the literature that deliberate extinction may result when there is critical depensation or when the discount rate is high compared to the intrinsic growth rate. Here it is shown that deliberate extinction may also be optimal when the degree of stochasticitry is high even with zero discounting. A high degree of stochasticity may have the same effect as critical depensation even though it is not present in the biological model. In other words, high uncertainty, instead of leading to more conservative harvesting as is usually expected, in this model result in more aggressive harvesting and more risky behavior. The main message is therefore always to try to keep the stock well above any critical limit.     

随机产出与需求下农户融资模式选择研究

农业是国民经济的基础,但农业融资一直存在许多困难。本文在考虑农户的破产风险,产出随机性以及市场需求不确定的基础之上,构建由单一公司与资金约束的单一农户构成的订单农业供应链决策模型,得到了农户在面对银行信贷、贸易信贷、组合信贷时的最优决策的选择策略。研究表明,当公司利率大于银行利率且农产品生长周期较长,或者当公司利率小于银行利率且农产品生产周期较短时,农户应在银行利率较小时选择银行信贷,在银行利率较大时选择贸易信贷。而在其余情况中,农户需要综合考虑农产品价格敏感系数等因素来决定是否选择组合信贷模式。     

A non-cooperative game model for managing a multiple-aged expiring inventory under consumers' heterogeneity to price and time

The considered inventory system includes the coexistence of old and new types belonging to an identical product. A non-cooperative game approach between the retailer and the market, where the retailer aims to increase her profit, is developed. The market, on the other hand, may seek different objectives. In particular, the objectives of price minimization, freshness maximization, and maximization of the quantity on shelf are analyzed. The main objectives are to develop a model of a multiple-aged inventory system and to specify the conditions under which multiple types on the shelf are not beneficial to either the retailer or the market. Using an analytic optimization approach, the optimal response functions of the two players are derived, while with the aid of numerical iterations, the non-cooperative game Nash equilibrium is obtained. The main theoretical result indicates that selling an inventory that simultaneously holds multiple ages is not optimal; that is, both the retailer and consumers lose out from such a situation. This conclusion is general enough to be valid for a market that is heterogeneous with respect to both price sensitivity and sensitivity to the remaining time until expiration. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters support the conclusions and highlight their importance.     

A Shooting Algorithm for Optimal Control Problems with Singular Arcs

In this article, we propose a shooting algorithm for a class of optimal control problems for which all control variables appear linearly. The shooting system has, in the general case, more equations than unknowns and the Gauss–Newton method is used to compute a zero of the shooting function. This shooting algorithm is locally quadratically convergent, if the derivative of the shooting function is one-to-one at the solution. The main result of this paper is to show that the latter holds whenever a sufficient condition for weak optimality is satisfied. We note that this condition is very close to a second order necessary condition. For the case when the shooting system can be reduced to one having the same number of unknowns and equations (square system), we prove that the mentioned sufficient condition guarantees the stability of the optimal solution under small perturbations and the invertibility of the Jacobian matrix of the shooting function associated with the perturbed problem. We present numerical tests that validate our method.     

On optimal control problems with state constraints

This paper is concerned with necessary conditions for a general optimal control problem developed by Russak and Tan. It is shown that, in most cases, a further relation between the multipliers holds. This result is of interest in particular for the investigation of perturbations of the state constraint.