THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WETLANDS AND WATERFOWL IN WESTERN CANADA: INCORPORATING CROPPING DECISIONS INTO A BIOECONOMIC MODEL

Abstract We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of wetlands. We use the model to estimate the impact of climate change on wetlands and waterfowl, including direct climate effects as well as land use change due to biofuel policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The model predicts that climate change will reduce wetlands by 37–56% from historic levels. Land use change due to biofuel policies is expected to reduce wetlands by between 35% and 45% from historic levels, whereas direct climate effects will range from a reduction of 2–11%, depending on the future climate scenario. This result indicates that models that neglect the effect of land use changes underestimate the effect of climate change on wetlands. Further, wetlands loss is geographically heterogeneous, with losses being the largest in Saskatchewan.     

A BIOECONOMIC SHEEP–VEGETATION TRADE‐OFF MODEL: AN ANALYSIS OF THE NORDIC SHEEP FARMING SYSTEM

Abstract. The paper studies the economy and ecology of sheep farming at the farm level and includes 2 different categories of the animals, ewes (adult females) and lambs. The model is analyzed in a Nordic economic and biological setting. During the outdoor grazing season, animals face limited grazing resources so that the weight gain of lambs is determined by the per‐animal vegetation consumption. On the other hand, the number of grazing animals, lambs as well as ewes, determines the grazing pressure. This problem is studied under the assumption of a rational and well‐informed farmer who aims to maximize profit in ecological equilibrium with zero animal and vegetation growth. We find that lamb‐only slaughtering is optimal and that it is never beneficial for the farmer to keep livestock that overgraze pasture. It is also shown that higher meat prices and more profitable slaughtering make it economically rewarding for the farmer to keep more animals. A numerical illustration indicates that the optimal sheep farming decision may be more sensitive to changes in pasture quality and productivity than changes in economic conditions.     

A PREDICTIVE MODEL TO INFORM ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF DOUBLE‐CRESTED CORMORANTS AND FISHERIES IN MICHIGAN

The proliferation of double‐crested cormorants (DCCOs; Phalacrocorax auritus) in North America has raised concerns over their potential negative impacts on game, cultured and forage fishes, island and terrestrial resources, and other colonial water birds, leading to increased public demands to reduce their abundance. By combining fish surplus production and bird functional feeding response models, we developed a deterministic predictive model representing bird–fish interactions to inform an adaptive management process for the control of DCCOs in multiple colonies in Michigan. Comparisons of model predictions with observations of changes in DCCO numbers under management measures implemented from 2004 to 2012 suggested that our relatively simple model was able to accurately reconstruct past DCCO population dynamics. These comparisons helped discriminate among alternative parameterizations of demographic processes that were poorly known, especially site fidelity. Using sensitivity analysis, we also identified remaining critical uncertainties (mainly in the spatial distributions of fish vs. DCCO feeding areas) that can be used to prioritize future research and monitoring needs. Model forecasts suggested that continuation of existing control efforts would be sufficient to achieve long‐term DCCO control targets in Michigan and that DCCO control may be necessary to achieve management goals for some DCCO‐impacted fisheries in the state. Finally, our model can be extended by accounting for parametric or ecological uncertainty and including more complex assumptions on DCCO–fish interactions as part of the adaptive management process.     

A Navier–Stokes–Voight model with memory

In this article, we consider a three‐dimensional Navier–Stokes–Voight model with memory where relaxation effects are described through a distributed delay. We prove the existence of uniform global attractors , where ? ∈ (0,1) is the scaling parameter in the memory kernel. Furthermore, we prove that the model converges to the classical three‐dimensional Navier–Stokes–Voight system in an appropriate sense as ? → 0. In particular, we construct a family of exponential attractors Ξ_? that is robust as ? → 0. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A rectangular element for the Reissner–Mindlin plate

We investigate a new rectangular element for the Reissner–Mindlin model based on the primitive variable system. Nonconforming rotated Q₁ element is used to approximate the transverse displacement, and the biquadratic element is used for the rotation. A convergent error estimate is obtained, which is independent of the thickness of the plate. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 16: 184–193, 2000     

A random evolution related to a Fisher–Wright–Moran model with mutation,recombination and drift

The paper deals with a model of the genetic process of recombination, one of the basis mechanisms of generating genetic variability. Mathematically, the model can be represented by the so‐called random evolution of Griego and Hersch, in which a random switching process selects from among several possible modes of operation of a dynamical system. The model, introduced by Polanska and Kimmel, involves mutations in the form of a time‐continuous Markov chain and genetic drift. We demonstrate asymptotic properties of the model under different demographic scenarios for the population in which the process evolves. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A STRUCTURALLY BASED ANALYTIC MODEL OF GROWTH AND BIOMASS DYNAMICS IN SINGLE SPECIES STANDS OF CONIFERS

A theoretically based analytic model of plant growth in single species conifer communities based on the species fully occupying a site and fully using the site resources is introduced. Model derivations result in a single equation simultaneously describes changes over both, different site conditions (or resources available), and over time for each variable for each species. Leaf area or biomass, or a related plant community measurement, such as site class, can be used as an indicator of available site resources. Relationships over time (years) are determined by the interaction between a stable foliage biomass in balance with site resources, and by the increase in the total heterotrophic biomass of the stand with increasing tree size. This structurally based, analytic model describes the relationships between plant growth and each species’ functional depth for foliage, its mature crown size, and stand dynamics, including the self‐thinning. Stand table data for seven conifer species are used for verification of the model. Results closely duplicate those data for each variable and species. Assumptions used provide a basis for interpreting variations within and between the species. Better understanding of the relationships between the MacArthur consumer resource model, the Chapman–Richards growth functions, the metabolic theory of ecology, and stand development resulted.     

A JUVENILE‐ADULT DISCRETE‐TIME PRODUCTION MODEL OF EXPLOITED FISHERY SYSTEMS

Abstract. Previous mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of Georges Bank Atlantic cod fishery employed discrete‐time models without age‐structure. To make use of a much wider variety of data on fisheries and fish stocks than was possible with an unstructured model, we introduce a juvenile‐adult age‐structured production exploited fishery model with a very general recruitment function. We use the age‐structured model to study the interaction between fish exploitation levels and recruitment dynamics. As case studies, we use our model results and historical fish population data from Georges Bank to investigate the impact of recent harvesting levels on the sustainability of cod fishery. We show that a constant harvesting policy with the same harvesting rate of 2007 would lead to the recovery and sustainability of Georges Bank cod fishery.     

A TWO‐STAGE INFORMATION‐THEORETIC APPROACH TO MODELING LANDSCAPE‐LEVEL ATTRIBUTES AND MAXIMUM RECRUITMENT OF CHINOOK SALMON IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

ABSTRACT. Many anadromous salmonid stocks in the Pacific Northwest are at their lowest recorded levels, which has raised questions regarding their long‐term persistence under current conditions. There are a number of factors, such as freshwater spawning and rearing habitat, that could potentially influence their numbers. Therefore, we used the latest advances in information‐theoretic methods in a two‐stage modeling process to investigate relationships between landscape‐level habitat attributes and maximum recruitment of 25 index stocks of chinook salmon (Onocorhynchus tshawy‐tscha) in the Columbia River basin. Our first‐stage model selection results indicated that the Ricker‐type, stock recruitment model with a constant Ricker a, i.e., recruits‐per‐spawner at low numbers of fish) across stocks was the only plausible one given these data, which contrasted with previous unpublished findings. Our second‐stage results revealed that maximum recruitment of chinook salmon had a strongly negative relationship with percentage of surrounding subwatersheds categorized as predominantly containing U.S. Forest Service and private moderate‐high impact managed forest. That is, our model predicted that average maximum recruitment of chinook salmon would decrease by at least 247 fish for every increase of 33% in surrounding subwatersheds categorized as predominantly containing U.S. Forest Service and privately managed forest. Conversely, mean annual air temperature had a positive relationship with salmon maximum recruitment, with an average increase of at least 179 fish for every increase in 2°C mean annual air temperature.     

ON THE IMPULSIVE BEVERTON–HOLT EQUATION AND EXTINCTION CONDITIONS IN POPULATION DYNAMICS

Abstract This paper is devoted to investigate extinction and nonextinction conditions of the extended Beverton–Holt equation (BHE) for dynamics of populations in Ecology when potential discontinuities at sampling points are included in the model. The proposed model is described by means of four sequences of parameters. Two of them are the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity sequences which are included in the basic BHE model. The other two ones, namely, the harvesting (i.e., the hunting or fishing quota) and the internal consumption (which can include positive and negative migrations in the considered population habitat) sequences are included to parameterize the model discontinuities. Such discontinuities are related to impulses in the corresponding continuous‐time logistic equation. The obtained results establish how the harvesting quota and/or the internal consumption has to be fixed to guarantee the population nonextinction or, eventually, its extinction. Finally, some controllability results related to the search of a carrying capacity sequence such that the solution of the proposed impulsive BHE tracks a reference one are obtained.     

A simple Gause‐type predator–prey model considering social predation

The consumer–resource relationships are among the most fundamental of all ecological relationships and have been the focus of ecology since its beginnings. Usually are described by nonlinear differential equation systems, putting the emphasis in the effect of antipredator behavior (APB) by the prey; nevertheless, a minor quantity of articles has considered the social behavior of predators. In this work, two predator–prey models derived from the Volterra model are analyzed, in which the equation of predators is modified considering cooperation or collaboration among predators. It is well known that competition among predators produces a stabilizing effect on system describing the model, since there exists a wide set in the parameter space where the system has a unique equilibrium point in the phase plane, which is globally asymptotically stable. Meanwhile, the cooperation can originate more complex and unusual dynamics. As we will show, it is possible to prove that for certain subset of parameter values the predator population sizes tend to infinite when the prey population goes to extinct. This apparently contradicts the idea of a realistic model, when it is implicitly assumed that the predators are specialist, ie, the prey is its unique source of food. However, this could be a desirable effect when the prey constitutes a plague. To reinforce the analytical result, numerical simulations are presented.     

A new probabilistic fuzzy model: Fuzzification–Maximization (FM) approach

Over the past few decades, fuzzy logic systems have been used for nonlinear modeling and approximation in many fields ranging from engineering to science. In this paper, a new fuzzy model is developed from the probabilistic and statistical point of view. The proposed model decomposes the input–output characteristics into noise-free part and probabilistic noise part and identifies them simultaneously. The noise-free model recovers the nominal input–output characteristics of the target system and the noise model gives approximation to the probabilistic nature of the added noise. To identify the two submodels simultaneously, we propose the Fuzzification–Maximization (FM). Finally, some simulations are conducted and the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through the comparison with the previous methods.     

Bifurcation and stability of a Mimura–Tsujikawa model with nonlocal delay effect

In this paper, we investigate a Mimura–Tsujikawa model with nonlocal delay effect under the homogeneous Neumann boundary condition. By using Lyapunov–Schmidt reduction, we investigate the existence, multiplicity, stability, and Hopf bifurcation of nontrivial steady‐state solutions bifurcating from the nonzero steady‐state solution. Moreover, we illustrate our general results by applications to models with a one‐dimensional spatial domain. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A modified Leslie–Gower predator–prey model with ratio‐dependent functional response and alternative food for the predator

In this work, a modified Leslie–Gower predator–prey model is analyzed, considering an alternative food for the predator and a ratio‐dependent functional response to express the species interaction. The system is well defined in the entire first quadrant except at the origin ( 0 , 0 ) . Given the importance of the origin ( 0 , 0 ) as it represents the extinction of both populations, it is convenient to provide a continuous extension of the system to the origin. By changing variables and a time rescaling, we obtain a polynomial differential equations system, which is topologically equivalent to the original one, obtaining that the non‐hyperbolic equilibrium point ( 0 , 0 ) in the new system is a repellor for all parameter values. Therefore, our novel model presents a remarkable difference with other models using ratio‐dependent functional response. We establish conditions on the parameter values for the existence of up to two positive equilibrium points; when this happen, one of them is always a hyperbolic saddle point, and the other can be either an attractor or a repellor surrounded by at least one limit cycle. We also show the existence of a separatrix curve dividing the behavior of the trajectories in the phase plane. Moreover, we establish parameter sets for which a homoclinic curve exits, and we show the existence of saddle‐node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation. An important feature in this model is that the prey population can go to extinction; meanwhile, population of predators can survive because of the consumption of alternative food in the absence of prey. In addition, the prey population can attain their carrying capacity level when predators go to extinction. We demonstrate that the solutions are non‐negatives and bounded (dissipativity and permanence of population in many other works). Furthermore, some simulations to reinforce our mathematical results are shown, and we further discuss their ecological meanings. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A mathematical model for phase separation: A generalized Cahn–Hilliard equation

In this paper we present a mathematical model to describe the phenomenon of phase separation, which is modelled as space regions where an order parameter changes smoothly. The model proposed, including thermal and mixing effects, is deduced for an incompressible fluid, so the resulting differential system couples a generalized Cahn–Hilliard equation with the Navier–Stokes equation. Its consistency with the second law of thermodynamics in the classical Clausius–Duhem form is finally proved. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical computation of a non-dimensional form of stream water quality model with hydrodynamic advection–dispersion–reaction equations

Mathematical models of water quality assessment problems often arise in environmental science. The modelling often involves numerical methods to solve the equations. In this research, two mathematical models are used to simulate pollution due to sewage effluent in the nonuniform flow of water in a stream with varied current velocity. The first is a hydrodynamic model that provides the velocity field and elevation of the water flow. The second is a dispersion model, where the commonly used governing factor is the one-dimensional advection–dispersion–reaction equation that gives the pollutant concentration fields. In the simulation processes, we used the Crank–Nicolson method system of a hydrodynamic model and the backward time central space scheme for the dispersion model. Finally, we present a numerical simulation that confirms the results of the techniques.     

HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY DYNAMICS OF GLAUCOUS‐WINGED GULLS (LARUS GLAUCESCENS) II: A CONTINUOUS‐TIME MODEL

ABSTRACT. The diurnal distribution and abundance dynamics of loafing Glaucous‐winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens) were examined at Protection Island National Wildlife Refuge, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. Asynchronous movement of gulls among three habitat patches dedicated to loafing was modeled as a function of environmental variables using differential equations. Multiple time scale analysis led to the derivation of algebraic models for habitat patch occupancy dynamics. The models were parameterized with hourly census data collected from each habitat patch, and the resulting model predictions were compared with observed census data. A four‐compartment model explained 41% of the variability in the data. Models that predict the dynamics of organism distribution and abundance enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial organization of ecological systems, as well as the decision‐making process in natural resource management.     

HABITAT PATCH OCCUPANCY DYNAMICS OF GLAUCOUS‐WINGED GULLS (LARUS GLAUCESCENS) I: A DISCRETE‐TIME MODEL

ABSTRACT. Diurnal habitat occupancy dynamics of Glaucous‐winged Gulls were evaluated in a system of six habitats on and around Protection Island, Washington. Data were collected on the rates of gull movement between habitat patches, and from these data the probabilities of transitions between habitats were estimated as functions of tide height and time of day. A discrete‐time matrix model based on the transition probabilities was used to generate habitat occupancy predictions, which were then compared to hourly census data. All model parameters were estimated directly from data rather than through model fitting. The model made reasonable predictions for two of the six habitats and explained 45% of the variability in the data from 2003. The construction and testing of mathematical models that predict occupancies in multiple habitats may play increasingly important roles in the understanding and management of animal populations within complex environments.     

A sigma coordinate 3D k– model for turbulent free surface flow over a submerged structure

A fully three-dimensional unsteady flow model is developed to simulate free surface flow over a submerged structure. A new sigma coordinate is used to map the physical domain containing the wavy free surface and uneven bottom to a rectangular prism, and to keep the size of the submerged block unchanged in the sigma coordinate system. The numerical difficulty encountered in the conventional sigma coordinate system in which the block changes dynamically due to the time varying free surface is thus eliminated. A split operator scheme is used in the numerical solution so that different numerical schemes can be purposely chosen to deal with the distinctive mathematical and physical characteristics of the phenomena at different steps. k– model is used in the parameterization of turbulence due to its efficiency and reasonable performance. The model is applied to simulate the propagation of a solitary wave with good results. It is subsequently used to simulate a free surface flow against a submerged cube with one face perpendicular (or 45° inclined) to the flow. The numerical results compare favorably with the experimental measurements. In particular, no excessive turbulent kinetic energy is accumulated at the impingement regions.     

A block‐centered finite difference method for Darcy–Forchheimer model with variable Forchheimer number

A block‐centered finite difference scheme is introduced to solve the nonlinear Darcy–Forchheimer equation with variable Forchheimer number, in which the velocity and pressure can be approximated simultaneously. For variable Forchheimer number the second‐order error estimates for both pressure and velocity are established on nonuniform rectangular grid. An iteration process is given to solve the nonlinear system. Numerical experiments using the scheme show the consistency of the convergence rates of the presented methods with the theoretical analysis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 31: 1603–1622, 2015