未确知有理数在投标方案择优中的应用

评标是工程项目招投标的中心环节,许多评价因素易于定性分析而难于定量分析.根据评标中的主要评价因素,建立起量化评价指标体系,以各量化指标为变量,根据评标实践条件,构建出考虑招标单位相对收益的评标择优决策模型,利用未确知有理数理论,给出对投标方案的综合情况进行量化并进行选择的一个数学模型方法.     

基于灰色系统理论的工程项目评标方法研究

工程项目评标实质是多目标决策问题,为优先出合适的投标单位,建立灰色Euclid理论工程项目评标决策模型.首先,运用层次分析法(AHP)与信息熵法分别确定主客观权重.然后利用博弈集结模型对指标体系进行组合赋权,得到综合权重.最后,结合工程项目评标实例运用灰色Euclid理论评标模型进行评标决策.结果表明,运用博弈集结组合赋权和灰色Euclid理论模型选出投标单位D为最优方案,与实际评标一致,验证了模型的可操作性和适用性.     

考虑招标人收益的工程招投标博弈分析

传统的投标博弈来源于拍卖模型,只有投标人参与,没有招标人参与,而实际上,现代评标方法的多样性决定了招标人在招投标博弈中的重要性,文章在对招投标博弈与拍卖博弈进行比较分析后,构建了包括招投标多方、招标人对收益具有风险偏好且类型未知的非完全信息静态博弈,比以往的单纯用投标人的成本作为整个模型的参数更加具有合理性.最后给出博弈的均衡解以及数值计算,同时为招投标双方的决策给出理论分析与现实意义.     

工程项目主体在风险管理合作中的演化博弈分析

运用演化博弈分析方法,以业主及承包商在项目风险管理中的合作为例,建立项目主体在风险管理中合作的演化博弈模型,通过模型分析了模型中各参数对演变系统的影响、业主及承包商合作策略的演变规律,指出影响工程项目各方实现风险管理合作的主要影响因素是风险管理合作的成本及风险损失或收益的分配机制.     

基于数据包络分析的工程监理评标决策模型研究

以工程项目业主方视角基于数据包络分析的理论和方法建立了工程监理评标决策模型.首先,分析影响工程监理活动成效的因素,提取工程监理标原始评价指标,为消除原始指标间相关性带来的影响,采用主成分分析法建立工程监理标综合评价指标体系.其次,选取合适的输入和输出指标,建立工程监理评标决策的数据包络分析(DEA)模型.最后,通过实证分析,对该评标决策模型的操作性和有效性进行验证.为业主方提供了更为科学合理的评标决策方法,为规范建筑业市场运行秩序提供理论依据.     

无标底招标项目中招投标各方的博弈研究

在无标底招标项目中,招投标各方之间存在诸多博弈现象.本文根据项目管理和博弈的方法,对投标方的投标策略和支付函数进行了深入的分析.同时,利用价值效益评价决策的方法建立了招标方的评标计分模型和中标评价模型,并根据招标方的评标偏好性,提出了招标方的评标策略集和中标策略集.最后,对招投标双方的多种博弈现象进行了讨论,提出了双方的纳什均衡策略和不同条件下的双方最优中标策略和最优投标策略.     

建筑工程施工招标的方差最大化多属性评标方法

依据建筑工程施工招标评标综合评价体系,以决策矩阵为基础,利用偏差分析和方差最大化多属性决策方法,建立了考虑专家水平的综合评价模型,对建筑工程施工招投标的量化评标进行探讨,给出了计算实例.     

灰色关联分析在最佳承包商选择中的应用

承包商选择方法是否科学合理直接关系到工程项目的成败.由于承包商选择方的主观性和承包商信息获取的不完备性,若采用传统选择方法,难以取得良好的效果,并最终影响到业主的利益.针对承包商信息的灰色特征,建立了承包商选择的灰色关联度决策模型,选用投标报价、施工方案、施工工期、质量水平和企业信誉作为5个主要评价指标,运用该模型并结合工程实例进行了灰色关联分析,获得了较为可靠的承包商排序,选出了最佳承包商,证明了该方法在最佳承包商选择中的可行性和有效性.旨在为承包商选择方提供一种简单、快捷而有效的评价方法,帮助承包商选择方做出综合和相对客观的评价.     

基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型

运用BP神经网络技术,采用动量BP算法,构建了基于动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型,并将AHP的评价结果作为学习样本,对BP神经网络模型进行训练和测试.结果表明,基于AHP和动量BP神经网络的工程项目承包商选择模型是可行的,该模型具有较高的自组织、自适应和自学习能力以及较强的容错功能,能够为一般的工程项目承包商选择活动提供有效的参考和依据.     

基于Fuzzy-Rough-TOPSIS的工程项目投标风险评价模型研究

在工程项目招投标阶段,项目风险评价是建筑施工企业进行投标决策和作出项目选择的重要依据.基于理想化与主客观相结合的思想,提出了一种确定风险评价指标综合权重的方法;采用梯形模糊数处理模糊性信息,并将其与粗集理论和TOPSIS(a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)方法相融合,建立了工程项目风险评价的Fuzzy-Rough-TOPSIS模型.实例运行表明,模型可操作性强,适用于多个项目的风险分析和比较,并能够在一定程度上克服以往模型存在的主观性强、应用条件限制严格等不足.     

Three stage generalized flowshop: Scheduling civil engineering projects

We model the working of a civil engineering firm concerned with land development as a three stage flexible flowshop with weak chain precedence constraints and where preemption is allowed. The scheduling objective is to minimize the total tardiness for all the projects. Since solving this problem optimally is very hard, we propose a number of heuristic scheduling procedures which are evaluated extensively on real-life data and artificial problem instances.     

Systems framework for fuzzy sets in civil engineering

Civil engineering projects and designs are commonly developed in a systems framework that includes different types of uncertainty. In general, uncertainty can be of the ambiguity or vagueness type. The theory of probability and statistics has been extensively used in civil engineering to deal with the ambiguity type of uncertainty. The theory of fuzzy sets and systems have been used in civil engineering to model the vagueness type of uncertainty in many civil engineering applications. In this paper, the role of fuzzy sets in civil engineering systems is described using several example applications, e.g., quality assessment of wildlife habitat, construction engineering and management, structural reliability, and damage assessment of existing structures.     

Estimating need and demand for prehospital care

Models estimating demand and need for emergency transportation services are developed. These models can provide reliable estimates which can be used for planning purposes, by complementing and/or substituting for historical data. The model estimating demand requires only four independent variables: population in the area, employment in the area, and two indicators of socioeconomic status which can be obtained from census data. The model can be used to estimate demand according to 4 operational categories and 11 clinical categories. The parameters of the model are calibrated with 1979 data from 82 ambulance services covering over 200 minor civil divisions in Southwestern Pennsylvania. This model was tested with data from another 55 minor civil divisions, also in Southwestern Pennsylvania, and it provided good estimates to total demand. The model to estimate need evolves from the demand model. It enables planners to estimate unmet need occurring in the region. The effect of emergency transportation service (ETS) provider characteristics on demand was also investigated. Statistical tests show that, for purposes of forecasting demand, when the sociodemographic factors are taken into account, provider characteristics are not significant.     

Conceptual modelling and the project process in real simulation projects: a survey of simulation modellers

A survey was used to obtain information on the processes and methods used by simulation experts in real projects. The 102 survey respondents answered questions about their most recent simulation project. This paper presents some of the survey results, focussing mainly on conceptual modelling and the pattern of time allocation to different topics. There are a wide range of findings that include the modellers making changes to the initial conceptual model during subsequent tasks in most of the projects usually by adding complexity, model coding taking on average about twice the time of other topics, and the topics generally occurring in single blocks of time (at the resolution of the survey data collection) but with considerable overlaps. The results give an insight into the way experts approach simulation projects and their problem solving strategies. A potential application is in training novice modellers, particularly in developing ‘craft skills’. The results also provide an empirical basis for further research, especially in conceptual modelling.     

基于部门背景-计划行为理论改进模型的公务人员节能减排行为意图影响因素研究——以山西省为例

本文采用改进的传统计划行为理论模型,增加了知识-态度-行为以及利社会行为的理论基础作为变量,首次引入部门背景作为重要变量,旨在研究公务人员的节能减排行为意图的影响因素。本文开发出山西省政府部门公务人员节能减排行为意图问卷,建立了山西省政府部门公务人员节能减排行为意图模型,发现了不同部门对公务人员节能减排行为意图的影响程度和方向。结果显示模型整体契合度良好,不同部门的政府部门公务人员在知识变量、价值变量、知觉行为控制变量、行为意图变量上有显著差异。在利社会行为、主观规范变量和态度变量上没有显著差异。发改委公务人员主观规范较高,交通运输厅公务人员对未来展现节能减排行为的意愿与可能性较低。建设厅执行节能减排的后果有较低的评价。     

O.R. modelling of the deterioration and maintenance of concrete structures

This paper reports on a collaborative venture between operational researchers and civil engineers over 3 years. The main objectives were to collect and publish data on the observed rates of deterioration of particular defect types in a large number of concrete bridges, and to develop predictive mathematical models that relate inspection frequency to maintenance costs. The motivation was in part associated with the prototype modelling paper for inspection practices of major concrete structures, Christer (1988). The paper reports on the analysis of data collected and the estimation of deterioration using the concept of delay time. The two phase delay time model is extended to an extra phase in order to model the process of cracking and spalling in concrete. Maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate modelling parameters and an appropriate test of fit is carried out. Cost based models are then formulated to predict the cost effects of maintenance and inspection decision options. The cost model is applied first to an element, and then to an aggregate number of component types to produce a cost model for maintenance of a bridge or set of bridges.     

Object technology software selection: a case study

The goal of this paper is to present a case study focusing on object technology assessment in a computer service industry. We develop decision models to give proper recommendations for object-oriented software projects. The assessment uses a quantitative approach, in which a mixed-integer linear programming model and a multi-objective model were formulated and applied. By reducing the element of subjectivity, these formal models led to consistent tool selection. By separating the data and models, the models can be reused in subsequent software development projects. Finally, by allowing users to specify their objectives and requirements and by providing a sensitivity analysis of the results, this approach also increases customer orientation.     

基于MIV-BP型网络实验的房地产项目风险识别研究

为了更准确更客观地识别房地产项目中的风险,为房地产项目投资决策提供科学依据和参考,有效地规避风险,本研究在BP神经网络 (Back-Propagation Neural Network)建模的基础上,采取MIV(Mean Impact Value)算法对BP神经网络模型进行变量筛选的网络优化和改良,从而形成新的优化后的MIV-BP(Mean Impact Value Back-Propagation Neural Network)神经网络,并以此用于评价房地产项目中的风险度以及各因素在风险度中的影响作用大小;同时选取目前相关的房地产项目数据进行仿真实证分析和验证。验证实验结果表明,MIV-BP型神经网络对于房地产项目风险度识别具有良好的适应性和准确性,实验结果客观,达到专家评价的要求,并在风险因素作用度分析上具有良好的应用价值。     

Simplifying essential competencies for Taiwan civil servants using the rough set approach

Applying competency models to identify and develop capabilities of civil servants is now a leading strategy for every government. However, an ideal competency model usually contains too many intended competencies, impeding implementation. Recently, some scholars and experts argued that there is a maximum of eight competencies for effective assessment. Hence, how to simplify a set of competencies becomes an important issue. This study is presented as a test case to extend practical applications of rough set theory (RST) in the human resource field of Government. A well-known data mining technique, RST is a relatively new approach to this problem and is good at data reduction in qualitative analysis. Hence, the rough set approach is suitable for dealing with the qualitative problem in simplifying a set of competencies. This paper slimmed a set of competencies using RST, thus helping the Taiwan Government to better understand the perceived competency levels of its civil servants. Using the rough set analysis, this paper successfully reduced the numerous essential competencies into a more compact set, by omitting low-consensus competencies.     

Effects of the information presentation format on project control

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the information presentation format and project control. Furthermore, the effects of some system conditions, namely the number of projects to be controlled and the level of time pressure, on the quality of the project control decisions are analyzed. Information provided by Earned Value Analysis is used to monitor and control projects, and simulation is applied to replicate and model the uncertain project environments. Software is developed to generate random cost figures, to present the data in different visual forms and to collect users’ responses. Having performed the experiments, the statistical significance of the results is tested.