多响应Scheffé混料模型最优设计

在工业生产及科学实验中经常需要对多个混料试验指标进行统计分析,由于各响应指标之间存在一定的相关性,关于这类模型下最优设计的构造就变得比较复杂.本文在特定的相关条件下,构造了p维响应二阶Scheffe模型的D-最优设计,并讨论了二响应Scheffe模型的Ds-最优设计与A-最优设计.这三种最优设计的柱点测度只与变量个数有关而与响应协方差无关.     

振动钻削微小孔中钻头寿命与振动参数的二次回归试验研究

本文采用正交组合设计的试验方法，对振动钻削微小孔加工中钻头寿命与轴向振动参数之间的非线性关系进行了二次回归试验，得到了最优回归方程。用回归方程给出的最佳振动参数钻孔，钻头寿命提高了９６．３％     

经济预测的定量方法

预测问题在人类社会的各个邻域都是相当重要的，“凡事预则立，不预则废”。在经济领域中，对国民经济的预测涉及到国家预算的制订，企业对产品和市场的预测关系到该企业的兴衰存亡。预测分定性预测和定量预测两类，本文仅介绍经济预测的三种定量方法。一、回归分析法根据已经观测到的数据，按最小二乘原理确定出回归方程》一f（X），由此方程进行预测，这就是回归分析法，回归方法有一元与多元之分，有线性与非线性之分。最常用的是一元线性回归方程的模型，即y—a＋bx．实际中的经济问题反映的多为非线性模型，例如西方经济学的科布一道…     

灰色预测法的进一步推广及应用

把原始时间序列进行多次累加,产生多个新序列,研究它们之间的关系,建立多元线性(或非线性)回归模型.给定显著性水平α,对回归方程进行显著性检验,在置信度1-α下,利用微分,差分关系建立相应的高阶微分方程,从而实现对原序列的预测或控制.该方法进一步推广了灰色预测法,为时间序列建模提供了一个新手段,一些著名的微分方程模型成为这一方法的特例,最后,用该方法对中国1979年至2008年的GDP序列建立微分方程模型并进行预测.     

钕铁硼热变形多响应稳健参数设计

以钕铁硼热变形过程为研究对象,选取矫顽力、剩磁、最大磁能积这3个重要技术参数为响应变量,分析温度、变形速率、变形百分比、快淬粉末粒径、铜管高度这5个可控因子对钕铁硼磁性能的影响.基于偏最小二乘回归建立了多响应的回归方程,通过损失偏差函数,确定了最佳的因子水平,有效地解决了相关多变量的稳健设计问题,对今后相关研究具有一定的借鉴意义.     

二次回归正交组合设计在消除试验机摩擦振动中的应用

本文采用二次回归正交组合设计的原理，在Ｍ２摩擦试验机上，对消除低速滑动时的摩擦振动所需要的激振力与试验机系统参数之间的关系，进行了多因素优化试验回归，得到了二者之间的非线性回归方程．利用方程能对试验机在各种系统参数组合下需要的激振力作出比较准确的预报，使激振消除摩擦振动这一新技术，在摩擦试验机上得到了更为有效的应用．     

纵向艾滋病数据模型的最优稳健预测设计

本文考虑了纵向艾滋病数据模型响应值预测时的最优稳健设计问题。分别研究了两类预测问题:一类是群体响应均值的预测,另一类是个体观察值的预测。给出了模型方差参数空间上的最大最小和贝叶斯稳健设计,多个可选模型下的稳健设计以及预测点不确定时的稳健设计。提出了求各类稳健设计的模拟退火算法。     

回归分析方法在油田抽油机井管理中的应用

本文在抽油机井大量现场测试数据的基础上，建立了抽油机井系统效率、排量系数这两个重要指标与诸影响因素之间的回归方程。以此为基础，作者提出了一种抽油机井系统效率预测及参数优化设计的新方法，该方法在油田中应用已表现出良好的经济效益。     

基于黄金分割法的离散回归方程的变点估计及其应用

本文利用变点统计学和黄金分割法讨论有多个变点的离散回归方程的交点估计和参数估计，文中提出基于黄金分割法搜索最佳变点估计和同时得到参数估计的最小二乘算法，还讨论该算法在控制领域的应用，数值模拟结果显示本文算法能给出良好的变点及参数的估计值。     

回归旋转设计在农艺优化试验中的应用

1984年台州地区农技部门选取了汕优六号农艺系统中的秧令:x_1天、插秧密度:x_2万丛/亩、尿素:x_3斤/亩、氯化钾:x_4斤/亩和猪栏:x_5斤/亩等五个关键农艺因子,采用五元二次回归正交旋转设计方法,进行五因子、五水平、多指标的多点试验,建立了“汕优六号亩产超千斤的最优农艺数学模型”。试验分别在A,B,C三试点同时进行.各试点均安排36个小区,其中五因子二水平全因子试验的二分之一实施16个小区,星号点和零水平中心点试验小区各10个. 以三试点各小区亩产为指标,算得总回归模型为     

Teracluster LSSC-Ⅱ——Its designing principles and applications in large scale numerical simulations

The teracluster LSSC-II installed at the State Key Laboratory of Scientific and Engineering Computing, Chinese Academy of Sciences is one of the most powerful PC clusters in China. It has a peek performance of 2Tflops. With a Unpack performance of 1.04Tflops, it is ranked at the 43rd place in the 20th TOP500 List (November 2002), 51st place in the 21st TOP500 List (June 2003), and the 82nd place in the 22nd TOP500     

利率调节银行信贷规模的非线性动力分析

本文分析了利率对银行信贷规模的调节作用。在利率动态调节过程中，信贷资金量发生周期变化，以及周期倍分现象。当调节力度加大到一定程度时，信贷资金量就会出现混沌（ｃｈａｏｓ）。象其他非线性系统一样，银行信贷资金量在利率的调节下，表现出复杂的非线性动力学行为     

高维Dirichlet问题数值解的概率方法

本文用概率方法求得高维Dirichlet内问题和外问题在一般区域上的数值解\bd 高维漂移布朗族对停时具有强马氏性, 它在球面上的击中时和位置分布已知, 再利用Dirichlet问题解的随机表达式, 我们可以获得高维Dirichlet问题的数值解     

高维Dirchlet问题数值解的概率方法

本文用概率方法求得高维Dirichlet内问题和外问题在一般区域上的数值解.高维漂移布朗族对停时具有强马氏性,它在球面上的击中时和位置分布已知,再利用Dirichlet问题解的随机表达式,我们可以获得高维Dirichlet问题的数值解.     

Searchability in merging and implicit data structures

We introduce the notion ofsearchability as a property of an in place merging algorithm. We show that a pair of sorted arrays can be merged in place in linear time, so that a search can be performed in logarithmic time at any point during the merging process. We apply this method to devise an implicit data structure which can support searches inO(log² n) time in the worst case, andO(logn) on the average, and insertions inO(logn) time, in the worst case.This research was partly supported by NSERC under grant A8237 and presented in preliminary form at the 10th International Colloquium on Automata, Languages and Programming.On leave from the University of Chile.     

增加试验数据对岭估计的均方误差的影响

在线性模型中,对于回归系数的岭估计和广义岭估计,本文给出了选择岭参数的条件,在此条件下,岭估计和广义岭估计不仅能改善LS估计,而且增加试验数据时,它们的均方误差都会减少。同时,本文将增加试验数据换成增加附加信息,从而讨论了附加信息对混合岭估计和混合广义岭估计的影响问题。     

Thinking and Turing's test

The questions raised by A. M. Turing in his paper on thought and machines are discussed. Human thought is considered in turn as a concept of normal language usage, as a basic concept of psychology, and as the basis of intellectual activity. It is concluded that neither of these notions of thought identifies something specific that a human being can or cannot do. The imitation game proposed by Turing for deciding whether a machine can think is found to result from an arbitrary empoverishment of the channel of communication between the interrogator and the item under investigation. Turing's notions of thinking are shown to lead to logical difficulties. An alternative view of consciousness, that would place it beyond the reach of any finite test, is finally discussed.     

Aldermoor School: The Operational Researcher on the Side of the Community

There are well-established legal procedures that have to be followed when a school is proposed for closure in the UK. A reasoned case has to be made for the closure of the school and consultation with interested parties has to take place. This is an ideal opportunity for Community Operational Research to get involved. However, school closures are the result of a political programme, and a response which is based on analysis rather than on political pressure may simply be ignored, no matter how convincing the argument. This paper discusses the role of the Community Operational Researcher as a source of expert advice in a complicated issue. It is argued that, in this particular case, OR analysis served only to expose the impotence of individuals when faced with arbitrary administrative decisions.     

Unitary response regression models

The dependent variable in a regular linear regression is a numerical variable, and in a logistic regression it is a binary or categorical variable. In these models the dependent variable has varying values. However, there are problems yielding an identity output of a constant value which can also be modelled in a linear or logistic regression with this constant in place of a numerical or binary response. In a linear model with a positive response, dividing by its values yields a regression of constant output by the relative shares of individual predictors into the total response. Chemical reaction models use the agents' concentration, summing to a constant 100%. Another example can be found in priority modelling by Thurstone scaling for ranked or paired comparison data. The Thurstone scale can be estimated by probit or logit models with identical output across all the responses. Models with a unitary output can be constructed by software for regular regressions, but they give a different interpretation of results. For instance, the coefficient of multiple determination is not an estimate of the explained variance in the total response variance (which is zero), but a measure of the fitting quality of the constant approximated by an aggregate of predictors.     

Evacuation planning using multiobjective evolutionary optimization approach

In an emergency situation, evacuation is conducted in order to displace people from a dangerous place to a safer place, and it usually needs to be done in a hurry. It is necessary to prepare evacuation plans in order to have a good response in an emergency situation. A central challenge in developing an evacuation plan is in determining the distribution of evacuees into the safe areas, that is, deciding where and from which road each evacuee should go. To achieve this aim, several objective functions should be brought into consideration and need to be satisfied simultaneously, though these objective functions may often conflict with each other.