Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, α‐optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real‐world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimizing product assortment under customer-driven demand substitution

The problem of product assortment and inventory planning under customer-driven demand substitution is analyzed and a mathematical model for this problem is provided in this paper. Realistic issues in a retail context such as supplier selection, shelf space constraints, and poor quality procurement are also taken into account. The performance of three modified models, one that neglects customers’ substitution behavior, another that excludes supplier selection decision, and one that ignores shelf space limitations, are analyzed separately with computational experiments. The results of the analysis demonstrate that neglecting customer-driven substitution or excluding supplier selection or ignoring shelf space limitations may lead to significantly inefficient assortments. The effects of demand variability and substitution cost on optimal assortment and supplier selection decisions as well as on the optimal revenue are also investigated. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a practical and flexible model to aid retailers in finding optimal assortments to maximize the expected profit.     

Dynamic pricing with real-time demand learning

In many service industries, the firm adjusts the product price dynamically by taking into account the current product inventory and the future demand distribution. Because the firm can easily monitor the product inventory, the success of dynamic pricing relies on an accurate demand forecast. In this paper, we consider a situation where the firm does not have an accurate demand forecast, but can only roughly estimate the customer arrival rate before the sale begins. As the sale moves forward, the firm uses real-time sales data to fine-tune this arrival rate estimation. We show how the firm can first use this modified arrival rate estimation to forecast the future demand distribution with better precision, and then use the new information to dynamically adjust the product price in order to maximize the expected total revenue. Numerical study shows that this strategy not only is nearly optimal, but also is robust when the true customer arrival rate is much different from the original forecast. Finally, we extend the results to four situations commonly encountered in practice: unobservable lost customers, time dependent arrival rate, batch demand, and discrete set of allowable prices.     

Dynamic pricing of inventory with cancellation demand

When an inventory item has such a limited selling period that only a single supply order can be placed to satisfy future demand, a decision-maker must determine the quantity of the order to meet future demand and how to price this stock. Although this problem has received considerable attention, related investigations typically view the demand and selling price as exogenous parameters and assume that customers cannot cancel an order or return the product after purchasing the item. Pricing is, however, an important pervasive marketing vehicle that affects demand, and customers indeed cancel or return their orders after placing them. The newsboy problem is extended here so that demand is price-dependent and customers may cancel their orders. This paper seeks to develop decision rules to maximize the total expected profit over a given planning period. Analysis results demonstrate the feasibility of applying the order-up-to structure to yield the order quantity.     

Inventory control and pricing for perishable products under age and price dependent stochastic demand

Multistage stochastic programming (SP) with both endogenous and exogenous uncertainties is a novel problem in which some uncertain parameters are decision-dependent and others are independent of decisions. The main difficulty of this problem is that nonanticipativity constraints (NACs) make up a significantly large constraint set, growing very fast with the number of scenarios and leading to an intractable model. Usually, a lot of these constraints are redundant and hence, identification and elimination of redundant NACs can cause a significant reduction in the problem size. Recently, a polynomial time algorithm has been proposed in the literature which is able to identify all redundant NACs in an SP problem with only endogenous uncertainty. In this paper, however, we extend the algorithm proposed in the literature and present a new method which is able to make the upper most possible reduction in the number of NACs in any SP with both exogenous and endogenous uncertain parameters. Proving the validity of this method is another innovation of this study. Computational results confirm that the proposed approach can significantly reduce the problem size within a reasonable computation time.     

Joint pricing and inventory control with a Markovian demand model

We consider the joint pricing and inventory control problem for a single product over a finite horizon and with periodic review. The demand distribution in each period is determined by an exogenous Markov chain. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. The surplus costs as well as fixed and variable costs are state dependent. We show the existence of an optimal (s, S, p)-type feedback policy for the additive demand model. We extend the model to the case of emergency orders. We compute the optimal policy for a class of Markovian demand and illustrate the benefits of dynamic pricing over fixed pricing through numerical examples. The results indicate that it is more beneficial to implement dynamic pricing in a Markovian demand environment with a high fixed ordering cost or with high demand variability.     

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing,China

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.     

Dynamic pricing of limited inventories for multi-generation products

In this research, we consider a retailer selling products from two different generations, both with limited inventory over a predetermined selling horizon. Due to the spatial constraints or the popularity of a given product, the retailer may only display goods from one specific generation. If the transaction of the displayed item cannot be completed, the retailer may provide an alternative from another generation. We analyze two models - posted-pricing-first model and negotiation-first model. The former considers negotiation as being allowed on the price of the second product only and in the latter, only the price of the first product is negotiable. Our results show that the retailer can adopt both models effectively depending on the relative inventory levels of the products. In addition, the retailer is better off compared to the take-it-or-leave-it pricing when the inventory level of the negotiable product is high.     

Supply chain network downsizing with product line pruning using a new demand substitution

This paper presents an optimization model for downsizing a multi-product supply chain facing bankruptcy risk, where multi-functional production facilities are shared for producing a group of substitutable products. In order to determine the potential demand after discontinuation of certain product types, the proposed mixed integer programming model incorporates a new general formulation of demand substitution, which allows arbitrary demand diversion and arbitrary replacement rates between products under investigation. The new substitution formulation enables considering uneven substitutions for supply chain network design and therefore it extends currently used substitution approaches. A series of systematically generated downsizing cases confirm the validity of the here proposed approach, and illustrate how downsized chains can successfully adopt to the new circumstances.     

Efficient formulations for pricing under attraction demand models

We propose a modeling and optimization framework to cast a broad range of fundamental multi-product pricing problems as tractable convex optimization problems. We consider a retailer offering an assortment of differentiated substitutable products to a population of customers that are price-sensitive. The retailer selects prices to maximize profits, subject to constraints on sales arising from inventory and capacity availability, market share goals, bounds on allowable prices and other considerations. Consumers’ response to price changes is represented by attraction demand models, which subsume the well known multinomial logit (MNL) and multiplicative competitive interaction demand models. Our approach transforms seemingly non-convex pricing problems (both in the objective function and constraints) into convex optimization problems that can be solved efficiently with commercial software. We establish a condition which ensures that the resulting problem is convex, prove that it can be solved in polynomial time under MNL demand, and show computationally that our new formulations reduce the solution time from days to seconds. We also propose an approximation of demand models with multiple overlapping customer segments, and show that it falls within the class of demand models we are able to solve. Such mixed demand models are highly desirable in practice, but yield a pricing problem which appears computationally challenging to solve exactly.     

Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study

Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts.     

Optimal worst-case pricing for a logit demand model with network effects

We consider optimal pricing problems for a product that experiences network effects. Given a price, the sales quantity of the product arises as an equilibrium, which may not be unique. In contrast to previous studies that take a best-case view when there are multiple equilibrium sales quantities, we maximize the seller’s revenue assuming that the worst-case equilibrium quantity will arise in response to a chosen price. We compare the best- and worst-case solutions, and provide asymptotic analysis of revenues.     

Production planning towards the end of a product life cycle

Previously published papers have derived optimal policies forreplenishing stock when demand is declining according to somedeterministic law. Here we elaborate on that work, providinga full analysis, and extend the analysis back in time by consideringthe period of relatively level demand which is likely to havepreceded the period of decline in demand. We show how optimalinventory replenishment policies extending back to this periodof level demand can be derived.     

Inventory decisions for a finite horizon problem with product substitution options and time varying demand

The inventory control of substitutable products has been recognized as a problem worthy of study in the operations management literature. Product substitution provides flexibility in supply chain management and enhances response time in production control. This paper proposes a finite horizon inventory control problem for two substitutable products, which are ordered jointly in each replenishment epoch. Demand for the products are assumed to be time–varying. In case of a stock–out for one of the products, its demand is satisfied by using the stock of the other product. The optimal ordering schedule, for both products, that minimizes the total cost over a finite planning horizon is derived. Numerical examples along with sensitivity analyses are also presented.     

Two-period pricing and decision strategies in a two-echelon supply chain under price-dependent demand

This paper presents a two-period supply chain model which is comprised of one manufacturer and one retailer who are involved in trading a single product. The demand rate in each period is dependent on the selling prices of the current period and the previous period. We assume that the manufacturer acts as the Stackelberg leader and declares wholesale price(s) to the retailer who follows the manufacturer’s decision and sets his selling prices for two consecutive periods. The manufacturer adopts one of the two pricing options: (1) setting the same wholesale price to both the selling periods (2) setting different wholesale prices to two different selling periods. Based on these pricing options, we develop four decision strategies of the manufacturer and the retailer and compare them. For a numerical example, we study the effects of these decision strategies on the optimal results of the supply chain. Further, we graphically analyze under what circumstances a particular decision strategy plays a dominant role.     

Combined pricing and supply chain operations under price-dependent stochastic demand

In this study, we determined product prices and designed an integrated supply chain operations plan that maximized a manufacturer’s expected profit. The computational results of this study revealed that as the variance of the demand distribution increases, a manufacturer will increase its inventory to levels that are greater than the anticipated demand to prevent the potential loss of sales and will simultaneously raise product prices to obtain a greater profit. In the cost minimization approach, the manufacturer may earn the highest possible profits, as determined by the profit optimization approach, only if this firm precisely forecasts the mean market demand for its products. Greater inaccuracies in this forecast will produce lower levels of expected profit.     

Dynamic channel control and pricing of a single perishable product on multiple distribution channels

This paper studies dynamic channel control and pricing of a single perishable product distributed through multiple channels with the objective of maximizing the total expected profit over a finite horizon. We consider two types of commissions, namely proportional and fixed commissions, on the third-party channels and utilize stylized linear functions to characterize dependent demand flows from different channels. We show that, the magnitude of the opportunity cost of capacity uniquely determines the optimal channel control, at any given inventory level and periods to go. Consequently, we are able to derive the optimal price offered on each channel as a function of the opportunity cost of capacity in closed form. This significantly reduces the computational complexity of the stochastic dynamic program when parameters are constant with time. When channels are independent, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimality of a nested channel control policy by commission rates. The same condition is also sufficient for the optimality of the nested channel control policy in a distribution system with two dependent channels. We then characterize the structural properties of the optimal pricing and channel control policies. Finally, we explore the impact of the substitution effect on the channel control through numerical studies and gain managerial insights.     

An optimal pricing policy under a Markov chain model

This paper is about an optimal pricing control under a Markov chain model. The objective is to dynamically adjust the product price over time to maximize a discounted reward function. It is shown that the optimal control policy is of threshold type. Closed-form solutions are obtained. A numerical example is also provided to illustrate our results.

     

Ordering and pricing of service products in an advance sales system with price-dependent demand

This investigation addresses a service inventory control problem in which a firm orders and sells a service which will be used or consumed by customers on a specific future date. The firm sells the product through an advance booking system, aiming to optimize product price to maximize the total expected profit. Considering situations in which product demand is price-dependent and customers with reservations may cancel advance orders, this work develops a continuous-time model to simultaneously determine the order quantity and selling prices. The analytical results reveal that the optimal ordering quantity and prices are derived via closed-form solutions. In addition, sensitivity analysis of the optimal prices with respect to the system parameters is also conducted to illustrate optimal decision characteristics.