Points systems for car insurance

Some data on car insurance premiums charged to 120 categories of customer, arranged in a 5×4×3×2 table, has been analysed. A method similar to analysis of variance was used to find how closely the data could be reproduced by additive combinations of parameters from the four dimensions, the unusual feature was that these parameters were restricted to be small whole numbers. The reason for this is the attractiveness of such a points system in marketability and in ease of comprehension by the customer.     

Copula-based dependence between frequency and class in car insurance with excess zeros

A bonus-malus system calculates the premiums for car insurance based on the previous claim experience (class). In this paper, we propose a model that allows dependence between the claim frequency and the class occupied by the insured using a copula function. It also takes into account zero-excess phenomenon. The maximum likelihood method is employed to estimate the model parameters. A small simulation is performed to illustrate the proposed model and method.     

Rank-based inference tools for copula regression,with property and casualty insurance applications

Rank-based procedures are commonly used for inference in copula models for continuous responses whose behavior does not depend on covariates. This paper describes how these procedures can be adapted to the broader framework in which (possibly non-linear) regression models for the marginal responses are linked by a copula that does not depend on covariates. The validity of many of these techniques can be derived from the asymptotic equivalence between the classical empirical copula process and its analog based on suitable residuals from the marginal models. Moment-based parameter estimation and copula goodness-of-fit tests are shown to remain valid under weak conditions on the marginal error term distributions, even when the residual-based empirical copula process fails to converge weakly. The performance of these procedures is evaluated through simulation in the context of two general insurance applications: micro-level multivariate insurance claims, and dependent loss triangles.     

Parametric multiple regression risk models: Connections with tariffication,especially in motor insurance

It is shown how the parametric multiple regression risk models of Albrecht (1983a) can be used for solving the problem of tariffication of e.g. an motor insurance portfolio.     

Intensity-based framework for surrender modeling in life insurance

In this paper, we propose an intensity-based framework for surrender modeling. We model the surrender decision under the assumption of stochastic intensity and use, for comparative purposes, the affine models of Vasicek and Cox–Ingersoll–Ross for deriving closed-form solutions of the policyholder’s probability of surrendering the policy. The introduction of a closed-form solution is an innovative aspect of the model we propose. We evaluate the impact of dynamic policyholders’ behavior modeling the dependence between interest rates and surrendering (affine dependence) with the assumption that mortality rates are independent of interest rates and surrendering. Finally, using experience-based decrement tables for both surrendering and mortality, we explain the calibration procedure for deriving our model’s parameters and report numerical results in terms of best estimate of liabilities for life insurance under Solvency II.     

Two tests for heteroscedasticity in nonparametric regression

In this paper, two new tests for heteroscedasticity in nonparametric regression are presented and compared. The first of these tests consists in first estimating nonparametrically the unknown conditional variance function and then using a classical least-squares test for a general linear model to test whether this function is a constant. The second test is based on using an overall distance between a nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function and a parametric estimator of the variance of the model under the assumption of homoscedasticity. A bootstrap algorithm is used to approximate the distribution of this test statistic. Extended versions of both procedures in two directions, first, in the context of dependent data, and second, in the case of testing if the variance function is a polynomial of a certain degree, are also described. A broad simulation study is carried out to illustrate the finite sample performance of both tests when the observations are independent and when they are dependent.     

Semianalytical methods for analyzing stress concentrations in thick-walled multilayered composites

For analyzing the stress, strain, and displacement fields in thick-walled anisotropic multilayered composites, sophisticated semianalytical solution methods based on a first-order shear deformation theory have been developed at the Insitut für Leichtbau und Kunststofftechnik and validated in a great number of numerical finite-element simulations and extensive experimental tests. A comparison of results obtained by the different methods for general multilayered composites made from unidirectional, bidirectional, and textile-reinforced layers show a good agreement.     

The Chebyshev-Markov-Krein algorithm for analyzing microphysical processes in hail clouds

A modified Chebyshev-Markov-Krein algorithm is proposed for controlling processes governed by kinetic equations.     

Local influence in multilevel regression for growth curves

Influence analysis is important in modelling and identification of special patterns in the data. It is well established in ordinary regression. However, analogous diagnostics are generally not available for the multilevel regression model, in which estimation involves a complex iterative algorithm. This paper studies the local influence of small perturbations on the parameter estimates in the multilevel regression model with application to growth curves. The estimation is based on the iterative generalized least-squares (IGLS) method suggested by Goldstein (Biometrika 73 (1986) 43). The generalized influence function and generalized Cook statistic (Biometrika 84(1) (1997) 175) of IGLS of unknown parameters under some specific simultaneous perturbations are derived to study the joint influence of subject units on parameter estimators. The perturbation scheme is introduced through a variance–covariance matrix of error variables. A one-step approximation formula is suggested for simplifying the computations. The method is examined on growth-curve data.     

Optimal testing for additivity in multiple nonparametric regression

We consider the problem of testing for additivity in the standard multiple nonparametric regression model. We derive optimal (in the minimax sense) non- adaptive and adaptive hypothesis testing procedures for additivity against the composite nonparametric alternative that the response function involves interactions of second or higher orders separated away from zero in L ²([0, 1] ^d )-norm and also possesses some smoothness properties. In order to shed some light on the theoretical results obtained, we carry out a wide simulation study to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed hypothesis testing procedures and compare them with a series of other tests for additivity available in the literature.     

Tests for independence in non-parametric heteroscedastic regression models

Consistent procedures are constructed for testing independence between the regressor and the error in non-parametric regression models. The tests are based on the Fourier formulation of independence, and utilize the joint and the marginal empirical characteristic functions of the regressor and of estimated residuals. The asymptotic null distribution as well as the behavior of the test statistic under alternatives is investigated. A simulation study compares bootstrap versions of the proposed tests to corresponding procedures utilizing the empirical distribution function.     

Rank procedures for testing subhypotheses in linear regression

Summary In the linear regression modelX _i=α+βc_i+Z_i, we consider the problem of testing the subhypothesis that some (but not all) components of β are equal to 0. A class of asymptotically distribution-free tests based on a quadratic form in aligned rank statistic is studied and the asymptotic relative efficiencies of the proposed tests with respect to the general likelihood ratio test and the test based on least-squares estimates of regression parameters are derived. Asymptotic optimality (à la Wald) is also discussed. Work done under the National Science Foundation Grant MCS 8301409 and NATO Grant 1465.     

Explicit moments for a class of micro-models in non-life insurance

This paper considers properties of the micro-model analysed in Antonio and Plat (2014). The main results are analytical expressions for the moments of the outstanding claims payments subdivided into IBNR claims and individual RBNS claims. These moments are possible to compute explicitly using the discretisation scheme for estimation and simulation used in Antonio and Plat (2014) since the expressions then do not involve any integrals that, typically, would require numerical solutions. Other aspects of the model that are investigated are properties of the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters, such as bias and consistency, and a way of computing prediction uncertainty in terms of the mean squared error of prediction that does not require simulations. Moreover, a brief discussion is given on how to compute moments or risk-measures of the claims development result (CDR) using simulations, which based on the results of the present paper can be done without any nested simulations. Based on this it is straightforward to compute the one-year Solvency Capital Requirement, which corresponds to the 99.5% Value-at-Risk of the one-year CDR. A brief numerical illustration is used to show the theoretical performance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters in the claims development process under this model using a realistic set-up based on the case-study of Antonio and Plat (2014). Additionally, the paper ends with a short numerical illustration discussing the model’s robustness under violations of an independence assumption.     

Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry

Some property and casualty insurers use automated detection systems to help to decide whether or not to investigate claims suspected of fraud. Claim screening systems benefit from the coded experience of previously investigated claims. The embedded detection models typically consist of scoring devices relating fraud indicators to some measure of suspicion of fraud. In practice these scoring models often focus on minimizing the error rate rather than on the cost of (mis)classification. We show that focusing on cost is a profitable approach. We analyse the effects of taking into account information on damages and audit costs early on in the screening process. We discuss several scenarios using real-life data. The findings suggest that with claim amount information available at screening time detection rules can be accommodated to increase expected profits. Our results show the value of cost-sensitive claim fraud screening and provide guidance on how to render this strategy operational.     

Neural networks approach for determining total claim amounts in insurance

In this study, we present an approach based on neural networks, as an alternative to the ordinary least squares method, to describe the relation between the dependent and independent variables. It has been suggested to construct a model to describe the relation between dependent and independent variables as an alternative to the ordinary least squares method. A new model, which contains the month and number of payments, is proposed based on real data to determine total claim amounts in insurance as an alternative to the model suggested by Rousseeuw et al. (1984) [Rousseeuw, P., Daniels, B., Leroy, A., 1984. Applying robust regression to insurance. Insurance: Math. Econom. 3, 67–72] in view of an insurer.     

A machine learning approach for individual claims reserving in insurance

Accurate loss reserves are an important item in the financial statement of an insurance company and are mostly evaluated by macrolevel models with aggregate data in run‐off triangles. In recent years, a new set of literature has considered individual claims data and proposed parametric reserving models based on claim history profiles. In this paper, we present a nonparametric and flexible approach for estimating outstanding liabilities using all the covariates associated to the policy, its policyholder, and all the information received by the insurance company on the individual claims since its reporting date. We develop a machine learning–based method and explain how to build specific subsets of data for the machine learning algorithms to be trained and assessed on. The choice for a nonparametric model leads to new issues since the target variables (claim occurrence and claim severity) are right‐censored most of the time. The performance of our approach is evaluated by comparing the predictive values of the reserve estimates with their true values on simulated data. We compare our individual approach with the most used aggregate data method, namely, chain ladder, with respect to the bias and the variance of the estimates. We also provide a short real case study based on a Dutch loan insurance portfolio.     

A new technique for analyzing substructures in arrangements of piecewise linear surfaces

We present a simple but powerful new probabilistic technique for analyzing the combinatorial complexity of various substructures in arrangements of piecewise-linear surfaces in higher dimensions. We apply the technique (a) to derive new and simpler proofs of the known bounds on the complexity of the lower envelope, of a single cell, or of a zone in arrangements of simplices in higher dimensions, and (b) to obtain improved bounds on the complexity of the vertical decomposition of a single cell in an arrangement of triangles in 3-space, and of several other substructures in such an arrangement (the entire arrangement, all nonconvex cells, and any collection of cells). The latter results also lead to improved algorithms for computing substructures in arrangements of traingles and for translational motion planning in three dimensions. Work on this paper was partially supported by a grant from the G.I.F., the German-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development. The research reported in this paper is part of the author's Ph.D. thesis prepared under the supervision of Prof. Micha Sharir.     

Confidence limits for α/β in linear regression

When samples of seawater are analysed for lead content using the method of standard additions with an anodic stripping voltammeter the unknown concentration is estimated as the ratio of two regression coefficients. The problem of determining the precision of the estimate is solved using Fieller's theorem in the case of the normal regression model.