Valuing variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits

Variable annuities with guaranteed minimum lifetime withdrawal benefits (VA/GLWB) offer retirees longevity protection, exposure to equity markets, and access to flexible withdrawals in emergencies. We model how risk-averse retirees optimally withdraw from the products, balancing returns and the embedded longevity protection. Assuming reasonable individual preferences, the resulting cash flow generates a Money’s Worth Ratio of around 0.9 for our stylized VA/GLWB in the post-crisis product, considerably lower than what was offered prior to 2008. Sensitivity analyses with respect to portfolio choice, mortality, fees, and guaranteed withdrawal rates show that MWRs range from 0.80 to 1.0, with the portfolio choice making the biggest difference. For most parameter choices, the utility value of the VA/GLWB exceeds that of a similar mutual fund, but it is less than for a fixed annuity. Interestingly, VA/GLWB withdrawals in early retirement can optimally exceed contract maximum withdrawals, despite the fact that this reduces future withdrawal guarantees.     

Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach

Life annuities and pension products usually involve a number of guarantees, such as minimum accumulation rates, minimum annual payments or a minimum total payout. Packaging different types of guarantees is the feature of so-called variable annuities. Basically, these products are unit-linked investment policies providing a post-retirement income. The guarantees, commonly referred to as GMxBs (namely, Guaranteed Minimum Benefits of type ‘x’), include minimum benefits both in the case of death and survival. In this paper we propose a unifying framework for the valuation of variable annuities under quite general model assumptions. We compute and compare contract values and fair fee rates under ‘static’ and ‘mixed’ valuation approaches, via ordinary and least squares Monte Carlo methods, respectively.     

Valuation perspectives and decompositions for variable annuities with GMWB riders

The guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider, as an add on to a variable annuity (VA), guarantees the return of premiums in the form of periodic withdrawals while allowing policyholders to participate fully in any market gains. GMWB riders represent an embedded option on the account value with a fee structure that is different from typical financial derivatives. We consider fair pricing of the GMWB rider from a financial economic perspective. Particular focus is placed on the distinct perspectives of the insurer and policyholder and the unifying relationship. We extend a decomposition of the VA contract into components that reflect term-certain payments and embedded derivatives to the case where the policyholder has the option to surrender, or lapse, the contract early.     

Quantitative modeling of risk management strategies: Stochastic reserving and hedging of variable annuity guaranteed benefits

Variable annuities are enhanced life insurance products that offer policyholders participation in equity investment with minimum return guarantees. There are two well-established risk management strategies in practice for variable annuity guaranteed benefits, namely, (1) stochastic reserving based on risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional-tail-expectation (CTE); (2) dynamic hedging using exchange-traded derivatives. The latter is increasingly more popular than the former, due to a common perception of its low cost. While both have been extensively used in the insurance industry, scarce academic literature has been written on the comparison of the two approaches. This paper presents a quantitative framework in which two risk management strategies are mathematically formulated and where the basis for decision making can be determined analytically. Besides, the paper proposes dynamic hedging of net liabilities as a more effective and cost-saving alternative to the common practice of dynamic hedging of gross liabilities. The finding of this paper does not support the general perception that dynamic hedging is always more affordable than stochastic reserving, although in many cases it is with the CTE risk measure.     

Indifference fee rate for variable annuities

In this paper, we work on indifference valuation of variable annuities and give a computation method for indifference fees. We focus on the guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDB) and the guaranteed minimum living benefits (GMLB) and allow the policyholder to make withdrawals. We assume that the fees are continuously paid and that the fee rate is fixed at the beginning of the contract. Following indifference pricing theory, we define indifference fee rate for the insurer as a solution of an equation involving two stochastic control problems. Relating these problems to backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with jumps, we provide a verification theorem and give the optimal strategies associated to our control problems. From these, we derive a computation method to get indifference fee rates. We conclude our work with numerical illustrations of indifference fees sensibilities with respect to parameters.     

An identity of hitting times and its application to the valuation of guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit

In this paper we explore an identity in distribution of hitting times of a finite variation process (integrated geometric Brownian motion) and a diffusion process (geometric Brownian motion with affine drift), both of which arise from various applications in financial mathematics. We develop semi-analytical solutions to fair charges of variable annuity guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit from both a policyholder’s perspective and an insurer’s perspective. The pricing framework from the policyholder’s perspective was known previously in the literature only by numerical methods, whereas the insurer’s pricing method was used in the industry but only with Monte Carlo simulations. While comparing their similarities and differences, we prove under the assumption of no friction cost the two pricing approaches are equivalent. In the presence of friction cost, the semi-analytic solutions in this paper lead to a fast and accurate algorithm for determining rider charges and other management fees.     

Dynamic hybrid products in life insurance: Assessing the policyholders’ viewpoint

Dynamic hybrid life insurance products are intended to meet new consumer needs regarding stability in terms of guarantees as well as sufficient upside potential. In contrast to traditional participating or classical unit-linked life insurance products, the guarantee offered to the policyholders is achieved by a periodical rebalancing process between three funds: the policy reserves (i.e. the premium reserve stock, thus causing interaction effects with traditional participating life insurance contracts), a guarantee fund, and an equity fund. In this paper, we consider an insurer offering both, dynamic hybrid and traditional participating life insurance contracts and focus on the policyholders’ perspective. The results show that higher guarantees do not necessarily imply a higher willingness-to-pay, but that in case of dynamic hybrid contracts, a minimum guarantee level should be offered in order to ensure that the willingness-to-pay exceeds the minimum premium the insurer has to charge when selling the contract. In addition, strong interaction effects can be found between the two products, which particularly impact the willingness-to-pay of the dynamic hybrids.     

Accounting and actuarial smoothing of retirement payouts in participating life annuities

Life insurers use accounting and actuarial techniques to smooth reporting of firm assets and liabilities, seeking to transfer surpluses in good years to cover benefit payouts in bad years. Yet these techniques have been criticized as they make it difficult to assess insurers’ true financial status. We develop stylized and realistically-calibrated models of a participating life annuity, an insurance product that pays retirees guaranteed lifelong benefits along with variable non-guaranteed surplus. Our goal is to illustrate how accounting and actuarial techniques for this type of financial contract shape policyholder wellbeing, along with insurer profitability and stability. Smoothing adds value to both the annuitant and the insurer, so curtailing smoothing could undermine the market for long-term retirement payout products.     

Analytical valuation and hedging of variable annuity guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits

Variable annuity is a retirement planning product that allows policyholders to invest their premiums in equity funds. In addition to the participation in equity investments, the majority of variable annuity products in today’s market offer various types of investment guarantees, protecting policyholders from the downside risk of their investments. One of the most popular investment guarantees is known as the guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB). In current market practice, the development of hedging portfolios for such a product relies heavily on Monte Carlo simulations, as there were no known closed-form formulas available in the existing actuarial literature. In this paper, we show that such analytical solutions can in fact be determined for the risk-neutral valuation and delta-hedging of the plain-vanilla GLWB. As we demonstrate by numerical examples, this approach drastically reduces run time as compared to Monte Carlo simulations. The paper also presents a novel technique of fitting exponential sums to a mortality density function, which is numerically more efficient and accurate than the existing methods in the literature.     

Portfolio Optimization With a Guaranteed Minimum Maturity Benefit and Risk-Adjusted Fees

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - We study a portfolio optimization problem involving the loss averse policyholder of a variable annuity with a guaranteed minimum maturity benefit....     

The fundamental theorem of mutual insurance

The essence of mutual insurance is the notion that re-distributing risk in a pool of risks is more beneficial than taking the risk alone. Interpreting ‘more beneficial’ as an increase in utility and considering sequences of exchangeable risks, we are able to formalize this notion from the policyholder’s perspective and demonstrate its validity for various alternative preference functionals (e.g., expected utility, Choquet expected utility, and distortion risk measures). To obtain this result, we exploit that for a sequence of exchangeable risks the corresponding sequence of arithmetical averages is a reversed martingale.We conclude that pooling risks is fundamental for understanding the mechanisms of insurance because it favourably affects the utility of policyholders, and we refer to this phenomenon as the ‘utility-improving effect of risk pooling’. Moreover, we demonstrate that the utility of the policyholder is (strictly) increasing with the size of the risk pool.     

Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach

Life annuities and pension products usually involve a number of guarantees, such as minimum accumulation rates, minimum annual payments or a minimum total payout. Packaging different types of guarantees is the feature of so-called variable annuities. Basically, these products are unit-linked investment policies providing a post-retirement income. The guarantees, commonly referred to as GMxBs (namely, Guaranteed Minimum Benefits of type ‘x’), include minimum benefits both in the case of death and survival. In this paper we propose a unifying framework for the valuation of variable annuities under quite general model assumptions. We compute and compare contract values and fair fee rates under ‘static’ and ‘mixed’ valuation approaches, via ordinary and least squares Monte Carlo methods, respectively.     

Pricing and hedging of variable annuities with state-dependent fees

We investigate the problem of pricing and hedging variable annuity contracts for which the fee deducted from the policyholder’s account depends on the account value. It is believed that state-dependent fees are beneficial to policyholders and insurers since they reduce policyholders’ incentives to lapse the policies and match the costs incurred by policyholders with the pay-offs received from embedded guarantees. We consider an incomplete financial market which consists of two risky assets modelled with a two-dimensional Lévy process. One of the assets is a security which can be traded by the insurer, and the second asset is a security which is the underlying fund for the variable annuity contract. In our model we derive an equation from which the fee for the guaranteed benefit can be calculated and we characterize a strategy which allows the insurer to hedge the benefit. To solve the pricing and hedging problem in an incomplete financial market we apply a quadratic objective.     

The design of equity-indexed annuities

There is a rich variety of tailored investment products available to the retail investor in every developed economy. These contracts combine upside participation in bull markets with downside protection in bear markets. Examples include equity-linked contracts and other types of structured products. This paper analyzes these contracts from the investor’s perspective rather than the issuer’s using concepts and tools from financial economics. We analyze and critique their current design and examine their valuation from the investor’s perspective. We propose a generalization of the conventional design that has some interesting features. The generalized contract specifications are obtained by assuming that the investor wishes to maximize end of period expected utility of wealth subject to certain constraints. The first constraint is a guaranteed minimum rate of return which is a common feature of conventional contracts. The second constraint is new. It provides the investor with the opportunity to outperform a benchmark portfolio with some probability. We present the explicit form of the optimal contract assuming both constraints apply and we illustrate the nature of the solution using specific examples. The paper focusses on equity-indexed annuities as a representative type of such contracts but our approach is applicable to other types of equity-linked contracts and structured products.     

Analogue Implementation of the Funnel Controller

In many tracking control problems, pre-specified bounds for the evolution of the tracking error should be met. The ‘funnel controller’ addresses this requirement and guarantees transient performance for a fairly large class of systems. In addition, only structural assumptions on the underlying system are made; the exact knowledge of the system parameters is not required. This is in contrast to most classical controllers where only asymptotic behaviour can be guaranteed and the system parameters must be known or estimated. Until now, the funnel controller was only studied theoretically. We will present the results of an analogue implementation of the funnel controller. The results show that the funnel controller works well in reality, i.e. it guarantees the pre-specified error bounds. The implementation is an analogue circuit composed of standard devices and is therefore suitable for a broad range of applications. (© 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A numerical scheme for the impulse control formulation for pricing variable annuities with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB)

In this paper, we outline an impulse stochastic control formulation for pricing variable annuities with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) assuming the policyholder is allowed to withdraw funds continuously. We develop a numerical scheme for solving the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) variational inequality corresponding to the impulse control problem. We prove the convergence of our scheme to the viscosity solution of the continuous withdrawal problem, provided a strong comparison result holds. The scheme can be easily generalized to price discrete withdrawal contracts. Numerical experiments are conducted, which show a region where the optimal control appears to be non-unique.     

Evaluating models for classifying customers in retail banking collections

When seeking to establish a repayment strategy with delinquent borrowers, it is useful to determine how they are likely to behave, so that an optimal use of resources can be made. We examine two behavioural classifications (‘settle immediately’ versus ‘not settle immediately’, and ‘make some repayment’ versus ‘make no repayment’) and apply a variety of rules for predicting into which class each customer is likely to belong. Since no such rule will yield perfect predictions, the way in which performance is evaluated is crucial in choosing a good rule, and hence subsequently in obtaining accurate predictions of likely future behaviour. We examine some popular standard performance evaluation criteria, showing that they have major weaknesses. We describe and illustrate the use of an alternative measure that overcomes these weaknesses.     

Valuing guaranteed equity-linked contracts under piecewise constant forces of mortality

The work of this paper is motivated by the study in Gerber et al. (2012) and some following papers, in which equity-linked death benefits embedded in various variable annuity products are valuated for any time-until-death random variables whose density function can be approximated by a linear combination of densities of exponential random variables. Their analysis is made for the case where the time-until-death is exponentially distributed, i.e., under the assumption of a constant force of mortality. The main purpose of our study is to show that the discounted density approach can also be used to obtain similar explicit results on life-contingent options under the assumption of piecewise constant forces of mortality. Moreover, we study a term insurance product with the payoff at the time of death being equity-linked and inflation-indexed, and investigate two types of annuity-immediate products whose annual payments are equity-indexed with a minimum guaranteed amount. We also illustrate approximations and numerical calculations for some results obtained in this paper, and analyze parameter sensitivities.     

Heterogeneity and increasing returns may drive socio-economic transitions

There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or ‘green’ benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while others do not. However, as evidenced by myriad failed attempts of environmental products to maintain even a niche market, such benefits do not necessarily outweigh the extra purchasing cost. The question we pose is, how can such an initially economically-disadvantaged green product evolve to hold the greater share of the market? We present a simple mathematical model for the dynamics of product competition in a heterogeneous consumer population. Our model preassigns a hierarchy to the products, which designates the consumer choice when prices are comparable, while prices are dynamically rescaled to reflect increasing returns to scale. Our approach allows us to model many scenarios of technology substitution and provides a method for generalizing market forces. With this model, we begin to forecast irreversible trends associated with consumer dynamics as well as policies that could be made to influence transitions.     

Transportation policies for single and multi-objective transportation problem using fuzzy logic

In this paper, single and multi-objective transportation models are formulated with fuzzy relations under the fuzzy logic. In the single-objective model, objective is to minimize the transportation cost. In this case, the amount of quantities transported from an origin to a destination depends on the corresponding transportation cost and this relation is verbally expressed in an imprecise sense i.e., by the words ‘low’, ‘medium’, ‘high’. For the multi-objective model, objectives are minimization of (i) total transportation cost and (ii) total time for transportation required for the system. Here, also the transported quantity from a source to a destination is determined on the basis of minimum total transportation cost as well as minimum transportation time. These relations are imprecise and stated by verbal words such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’. Both single objective and multi-objective problems using Real coded Genetic Algorithms (GA and MOGA) are developed and used to solve the single level and bi-level logical relations respectively. The models are illustrated with numerical data and optimum results are presented.