Robust portfolio asset allocation and risk measures

Many financial optimization problems involve future values of security prices, interest rates and exchange rates which are not known in advance, but can only be forecast or estimated. Several methodologies have therefore, been proposed to handle the uncertainty in financial optimization problems. One such methodology is Robust Statistics, which addresses the problem of making estimates of the uncertain parameters that are insensitive to small variations. A different way to achieve robustness is provided by Robust Optimization which, given optimization problems with uncertain parameters, looks for solutions that will achieve good objective function values for the realization of these parameters in given uncertainty sets. Robust Optimization thus offers a vehicle to incorporate an estimation of uncertain parameters into the decision making process. This is true, for example, in portfolio asset allocation. Starting with the robust counterparts of the classical mean-variance and minimum-variance portfolio optimization problems, in this paper we review several mathematical models, and related algorithmic approaches, that have recently been proposed to address uncertainty in portfolio asset allocation, focusing on Robust Optimization methodology. We also give an overview of some of the computational results that have been obtained with the described approaches. In addition we analyse the relationship between the concepts of robustness and convex risk measures.     

Robust portfolio asset allocation and risk measures

Many financial optimization problems involve future values of security prices, interest rates and exchange rates which are not known in advance, but can only be forecast or estimated. Several methodologies have therefore been proposed to handle the uncertainty in financial optimization problems. One such methodology is Robust Statistics, which addresses the problem of making estimates of the uncertain parameters that are insensitive to small variations. A different way to achieve robustness is provided by Robust Optimization, which looks for solutions that will achieve good objective function values for the realization of the uncertain parameters in given uncertainty sets. Robust Optimization thus offers a vehicle to incorporate an estimation of uncertain parameters into the decision making process. This is true, for example, in portfolio asset allocation. Starting with the robust counterparts of the classical mean-variance and minimum-variance portfolio optimization problems, in this paper we review several mathematical models, and related algorithmic approaches, that have recently been proposed to address uncertainty in portfolio asset allocation, focusing on Robust Optimization methodology. We also give an overview of some of the computational results that have been obtained with the described approaches. In addition we analyze the relationship between the concepts of robustness and convex risk measures.     

Stochastic linear programs with restricted recourse

Stochastic programs with recourse provide an effective modeling paradigm for sequential decision problems with uncertain or noisy data, when uncertainty can be modeled by a discrete set of scenarios. In two-stage problems the decision variables are partitioned into two groups: a set of structural, first-stage decisions, and a set of second-stage, recourse decisions. The structural decisions are scenario-invariant, but the recourse decisions are scenario-dependent and can vary substantially across scenarios. In several applications it is important to restrict the variability of recourse decisions across scenarios, or to investigate the tradeoffs between the stability of recourse decisions and expected cost of a solution.We present formulations of stochastic programs with restricted recourse that trade off recourse stability with expected cost. The models generate a sequence of solutions to which recourse robustness is progressively enforced via parameterized, satisficing constraints. We investigate the behavior of the models on several test cases, and examine the performance of solution procedures based on the primal-dual interior point method.     

Extending Scope of Robust Optimization: Comprehensive Robust Counterparts of Uncertain Problems

In this paper, we propose a new methodology for handling optimization problems with uncertain data. With the usual Robust Optimization paradigm, one looks for the decisions ensuring a required performance for all realizations of the data from a given bounded uncertainty set, whereas with the proposed approach, we require also a controlled deterioration in performance when the data is outside the uncertainty set. The extension of Robust Optimization methodology developed in this paper opens up new possibilities to solve efficiently multi-stage finite-horizon uncertain optimization problems, in particular, to analyze and to synthesize linear controllers for discrete time dynamical systems. Research was supported by the Binational Science Foundation grant #2002038     

Robust solutions of Linear Programming problems contaminated with uncertain data

Optimal solutions of Linear Programming problems may become severely infeasible if the nominal data is slightly perturbed. We demonstrate this phenomenon by studying 90 LPs from the well-known NETLIB collection. We then apply the Robust Optimization methodology (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski [1–3]; El Ghaoui et al. [5, 6]) to produce “robust” solutions of the above LPs which are in a sense immuned against uncertainty. Surprisingly, for the NETLIB problems these robust solutions nearly lose nothing in optimality. Received: July 1999 / Accepted: May 2000?Published online July 20, 2000     

A note on the Bertsimas & Sim algorithm for robust combinatorial optimization problems

We improve the well-known result presented in Bertsimas and Sim (Math Program B98:49–71, 2003) regarding the computation of optimal solutions of Robust Combinatorial Optimization problems with interval uncertainty in the objective function coefficients. We also extend this improvement to a more general class of Combinatorial Optimization problems with interval uncertainty.     

Complexity of single machine scheduling problems under scenario-based uncertainty

We present algorithmic and computational complexity results for several single machine scheduling problems where some job characteristics are uncertain. This uncertainty is modeled through a finite set of well-defined scenarios. We use here the so-called absolute robustness criterion to select among feasible solutions.     

Generalized light robustness and the trade-off between robustness and nominal quality

Robust optimization considers optimization problems with uncertainty in the data. The common data model assumes that the uncertainty can be represented by an uncertainty set. Classic robust optimization considers the solution under the worst case scenario. The resulting solutions are often too conservative, e.g. they have high costs compared to non-robust solutions. This is a reason for the development of less conservative robust models. In this paper we extract the basic idea of the concept of light robustness originally developed in Fischetti and Monaci (Robust and online large-scale optimization, volume 5868 of lecture note on computer science. Springer, Berlin, pp 61–84, 2009) for interval-based uncertainty sets and linear programs: fix a quality standard for the nominal solution and among all solutions satisfying this standard choose the most reliable one. We then use this idea in order to formulate the concept of light robustness for arbitrary optimization problems and arbitrary uncertainty sets. We call the resulting concept generalized light robustness. We analyze the concept and discuss its relation to other well-known robustness concepts such as strict robustness (Ben-Tal et al. in Robust optimization. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009), reliability (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski in Math Program A 88:411–424, 2000) or the approach of Bertsimas and Sim (Oper Res 52(1):35–53, 2004). We show that the light robust counterpart is computationally tractable for many different types of uncertainty sets, among them polyhedral or ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. We furthermore discuss the trade-off between robustness and nominal quality and show that non-dominated solutions with respect to nominal quality and robustness can be computed by the generalized light robustness approach.     

Portfolio selection under model uncertainty: a penalized moment-based optimization approach

We present a new approach that enables investors to seek a reasonably robust policy for portfolio selection in the presence of rare but high-impact realization of moment uncertainty. In practice, portfolio managers face difficulty in seeking a balance between relying on their knowledge of a reference financial model and taking into account possible ambiguity of the model. Based on the concept of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we introduce a new penalty framework that provides investors flexibility to define prior reference models using the distributional information of the first two moments and accounts for model ambiguity in terms of extreme moment uncertainty. We show that in our approach a globally-optimal portfolio can in general be obtained in a computationally tractable manner. We also show that for a wide range of specifications our proposed model can be recast as semidefinite programs. Computational experiments show that our penalized moment-based approach outperforms classical DRO approaches in terms of both average and downside-risk performance using historical data.     

Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection

In decision analysis, difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values. In this paper, we develop the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology which extends Preference Programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria. We also develop an algorithm for computing all non-dominated portfolios, subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project-specific performance levels. Based on these portfolios, we propose a project-level index to convey (i) which projects are robust choices (in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained) and (ii) how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused. The RPM methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects.     

Variational Bayes and the Reduced Dependence Approximation for the Autologistic Model on an Irregular Grid With Applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices, which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the entire lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and that may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios, enabling us to implement a practical and efficient nonsimulation-based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The online supplementary materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.     

Selected topics in robust convex optimization

Robust Optimization is a rapidly developing methodology for handling optimization problems affected by non-stochastic “uncertain-but- bounded” data perturbations. In this paper, we overview several selected topics in this popular area, specifically, (1) recent extensions of the basic concept of robust counterpart of an optimization problem with uncertain data, (2) tractability of robust counterparts, (3) links between RO and traditional chance constrained settings of problems with stochastic data, and (4) a novel generic application of the RO methodology in Robust Linear Control.      

Influence of measurement data metrics on the identification of Interval Fields for the representation of spatial variability in finite element models

Due to the exponential growth in computing power, numerical modelling techniques method have gained an increasing amount of interest for engineering and design applications. Nowadays, the deterministic finite element (FE) method, an efficient tool to accurately solve the Partial Differential Equations (PDE) that govern most real-world problems, has become an indispensable tool for an engineer in various design stages. A more recent trend herein is to use the ever increasing computing power incorporate uncertainty and variability, which is omnipresent is all real-live applications, into these FE models. Several advanced techniques for incorporating either variability between nominally identical parts or spatial variability within one part into the FE models, have been introduced in this context. For the representation of spatial variability on the parameters of an FE model in a possibilistic context, the theory of Interval Fields (IF) was proven to show promising results. Following this approach, variability in the input FE model is introduced as the superposition of base vectors, depicting the spatial ‘patterns’, which are scaled by interval factors, which represent the actual variability. Application of this concept, however, requires identification of the governing parameters of these interval fields, i. e. the base vectors and interval scalars. Recent work of the authors therefore was focussed on finding a solution to the inverse problem, where the spatial uncertainty on the output side of the model is known from measurement data, but the spatial variability on the input parameters is unknown. Based on an a priori knowledge on the constituting base vectors of the interval field, the simulated output of the IFFEM computation is compared to measured data, and the input parameters are iteratively adjusted in order to minimize the discrepancy between the variability in simulation and measurement data. This discrepancy is defined based on geometric properties of the convex sets of both measurement and simulation data. However, the robustness of this methodology with respect to the size of the measurement data set that is used for the identification, as yet remains unclear. This paper therefore is focussed on the investigation of this robustness, by performing the identification on different measurement sets, depicting the same variability in the dynamic response of a simple FE model, which contain a decreasing amount of measurement replica. It was found that accurate identification remains feasible, even under a limited amount of measurement replica, which is highly relevant in the context of a non-probabilistic representation of variability in the FE model parameters. (© 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Proximity Benders: a decomposition heuristic for stochastic programs

In this paper we present a heuristic approach to two-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming models with continuous second stage variables. A common solution approach for these models is Benders decomposition, in which a sequence of (possibly infeasible) solutions is generated, until an optimal solution is eventually found and the method terminates. As convergence may require a large amount of computing time for hard instances, the method may be unsatisfactory from a heuristic point of view. Proximity search is a recently-proposed heuristic paradigm in which the problem at hand is modified and iteratively solved with the aim of producing a sequence of improving feasible solutions. As such, proximity search and Benders decomposition naturally complement each other, in particular when the emphasis is on seeking high-quality, but not necessarily optimal, solutions. In this paper, we investigate the use of proximity search as a tactical tool to drive Benders decomposition, and computationally evaluate its performance as a heuristic on instances of different stochastic programming problems.     

A risk-based modeling approach for radiation therapy treatment planning under tumor shrinkage uncertainty

Robust optimization approaches have been widely used to address uncertainties in radiation therapy treatment planning problems. Because of the unknown probability distribution of uncertainties, robust bounds may not be correctly chosen, and a risk of undesirable effects from worst-case realizations may exist. In this study, we developed a risk-based robust approach, embedded within the conditional value-at-risk representation of the dose-volume constraint, to deal with tumor shrinkage uncertainty during radiation therapy. The objective of our proposed model is to reduce dose variability in the worst-case scenarios as well as the total delivered dose to healthy tissues and target dose deviations from the prescribed dose, especially, in underdosed scenarios. We also took advantage of adaptive radiation therapy in our treatment planning approach. This fractionation technique considers the response of the tumor to treatment up to a particular point in time and reoptimizes the treatment plan using an estimate of tumor shrinkage. The benefits of our model were tested in a clinical lung cancer case. Four plans were generated and compared: static, nominal-adaptive, robust-adaptive, and conventional robust (worst-case) optimization. Our results showed that the robust-adaptive model, which is a risk-based model, achieved less dose variability and more control on the worst-case scenarios while delivering the prescribed dose to the tumor target and sparing organs at risk. This model also outperformed other models in terms of tumor dose homogeneity and plan robustness.     

Robust multiobjective optimization with application to Internet routing

Robust optimization addressing decision making under uncertainty has been very well developed for problems with a single objective function and applied to areas of human activity such as portfolio selection, investment decisions, signal processing, and telecommunication-network planning. As these decision problems typically have several decisions or goals, we extend robust single objective optimization to the multiobjective case. The column-wise uncertainty model can be carried over to the multiobjective case without any additional assumptions. For the row-wise uncertainty model, we show under additional assumptions that robust efficient solutions are efficient to specific instance problems and can be found as the efficient solutions of another deterministic problem. Being motivated by the fact that Internet traffic must be maintained in a reliable yet affordable manner in situations of complex and dynamic usage, we apply the row-wise model to an intradomain multiobjective routing problem with polyhedral traffic uncertainty. We consider traditional objective functions corresponding to link utilizations and implement the biobjective case using the parametric simplex algorithm to compute robust efficient routings. We also present computational results for the Abilene network and analyze their meaning in the context of the application.     

The tree representation for the pickup and delivery traveling salesman problem with LIFO loading

The feasible solutions of the traveling salesman problem with pickup and delivery (TSPPD) are commonly represented by vertex lists. However, when the TSPPD is required to follow a policy that loading and unloading operations must be performed in a last-in-first-out (LIFO) manner, we show that its feasible solutions can be represented by trees. Consequently, we develop a novel variable neighborhood search (VNS) heuristic for the TSPPD with last-in-first-out loading (TSPPDL) involving several search operators based on the tree data structure. Extensive experiments suggest that our VNS heuristic is superior to the current best heuristics for the TSPPDL in terms of solution quality, while requiring no more computing time as the size of the problem increases.     

Incorporating model uncertainty into optimal insurance contract design

In stochastic optimization models, the optimal solution heavily depends on the selected probability model for the scenarios. However, the scenario models are typically chosen on the basis of statistical estimates and are therefore subject to model error. We demonstrate here how the model uncertainty can be incorporated into the decision making process. We use a nonparametric approach for quantifying the model uncertainty and a minimax setup to find model-robust solutions. The method is illustrated by a risk management problem involving the optimal design of an insurance contract.     

Robust optimization – methodology and applications

Robust Optimization (RO) is a modeling methodology, combined with computational tools, to process optimization problems in which the data are uncertain and is only known to belong to some uncertainty set. The paper surveys the main results of RO as applied to uncertain linear, conic quadratic and semidefinite programming. For these cases, computationally tractable robust counterparts of uncertain problems are explicitly obtained, or good approximations of these counterparts are proposed, making RO a useful tool for real-world applications. We discuss some of these applications, specifically: antenna design, truss topology design and stability analysis/synthesis in uncertain dynamic systems. We also describe a case study of 90 LPs from the NETLIB collection. The study reveals that the feasibility properties of the usual solutions of real world LPs can be severely affected by small perturbations of the data and that the RO methodology can be successfully used to overcome this phenomenon. Received: May 24, 2000 / Accepted: September 12, 2001?Published online February 14, 2002