多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型及仿真

本文力图放宽模型的假设,考虑创新技术市场间的非独立性、扩散过程中潜在采用-等待采用-已采用三阶段中时间延迟性,建立多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型,并用Vensim进行模拟仿真研究.仿真结果表明该模型比较符合实际,可为多元技术创新扩散的理论研究和实际实施提供理论指导.     

面向集群创新网络异质企业的知识扩散建模及仿真研究

基于合作的集群创新网络知识扩散已经成为企业实现知识创新的重要手段,而集群创新网络知识扩散的动力学过程强烈依赖于异质企业间知识扩散能力的影响,为此,本文综合考虑了企业间不同接触数量、知识吸收和传播能力、知识淘汰率等异质性因素,建立了基于传染病理论的知识扩散模型,验证了由各异质因素构成的知识扩散再生数对知识扩散均衡和扩散效果的影响,并结合仿真实验进一步得出:在知识扩散前期,集群创新网络应发挥hub节点及异质网络的优势加快知识扩散,在中后期应注意企业关系发展的均衡性及企业接触邻居的规模性;相比过于强调知识交流的广泛性,加强企业传播能力和吸收能力的培养对网络知识扩散效果的提升更具意义;随着时间演化,企业知识淘汰率也会影响网络知识扩散的收敛情况。     

基于集群创新合作网络的知识创新与扩散过程建模及仿真研究

基于集群创新合作网络的知识创新和知识扩散过程是集群企业实现创新的关键。为了揭示集群创新合作网络中知识增长绩效的演化规律,探讨不同网络中知识增长绩效的差异及其形成原因,论文构建了知识创新与扩散的过程模型,以东北三省新能源汽车集群创新合作网络为例,运用复杂网络理论和仿真方法进行分析。研究发现,集群创新合作网络的整体知识水平呈现先递增后递减的演化规律;知识增长的演化过程存在突变点,突变时期不同网络中企业知识水平分化的情况决定不同网络知识增长绩效的差异性;知识扩散约束条件是知识创新与扩散过程的关键;实际网络并非知识创新与扩散的最优网络,无标度网络具有知识增长的绩效优势;hub结构和适度的节点度值分布差异性有利于提升知识增长绩效。     

Extremal Behavior of Diffusion Models in Finance

We investigate the extremal behavior of a diffusion X _t given by the SDE , where W is standard Brownian motion, μ is the drift term and σ is the diffusion coefficient. Under some appropriate conditions on X _t we prove that the point process of ε -upcrossings converges in distribution to a homogeneous Poisson process. As examples we study the extremal behavior of term structure models or asset price processes such as the Vasicek model, the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model and the generalized hyperbolic diffusion. We also show how to construct a diffusion with pre-determined stationary density which captures any extremal behavior. As an example we introduce a new model, the generalized inverse Gaussian diffusion. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Diffusion Approximation in Overloaded Switching Queueing Models

The asymptotic behavior of a queueing process in overloaded state-dependent queueing models (systems and networks) of a switching structure is investigated. A new approach to study fluid and diffusion approximation type theorems (without reflection) in transient and quasi-stationary regimes is suggested. The approach is based on functional limit theorems of averaging principle and diffusion approximation types for so-called Switching processes. Some classes of state-dependent Markov and non-Markov overloaded queueing systems and networks with different types of calls, batch arrival and service, unreliable servers, networks (M _SM,Q /M _SM,Q /1/) ^r switched by a semi-Markov environment and state-dependent polling systems are considered.     

一类大气尘埃等离子体扩散模型研究

研究了一类大气非线性尘埃等离子体扩散方程初值问题.首先在无扰动情形下,利用Fourier变换方法得到了尘埃等离子体扩散方程初值问题的精确解,接着引入一个同伦映射,并选取初始近似函数,再用同伦映射理论,依次求出了非线性尘埃等离子体扰动初值问题的各次近似解析解.并引用不动点理论,指出了近似解析解的有效性和各次近似解的近似度,通过举例, 用模拟曲线和表格作了近似对照.最后,简述了用同伦映射方法得到的近似解的物理意义.简叙了用上述方法得到的各次近似解具有便于求解、精度高等优点.     

A Multilevel Event History Model of Social Diffusion: Medical Innovation Revisited

This article presents a multilevel event history model of social diffusion and applies it to Coleman, Katz, and Menzel's (1966 Coleman , J. S. , Katz , E. , &; Menzel , H. ( 1966 ). Medical Innovation: A Diffusion Study . Indianapolis , IN : Bobbs-Merrill . [Google Scholar]) data on the adoption of tetracycline by physicians. The simplest form of a multilevel model allows a random intercept. In the present application of this simple model to the Medical Innovation data, structured for an event history analysis, the physicians are nested in city and time. Random intercepts capture effects of contextual conditions that are shared by event history cases with the same city–time status. The intercepts also reflect any baseline internal contagion effects, that is, the proportion of physicians in the city–time network who have adopted the drug at time t ? 1. Here, I show that Van den Bulte and Lilien's (2001 Van den Bulte , C. &; Lilien , G. L. ( 2001 ). Medical innovation revisited: social contagion versus marketing effort . American Journal of Sociology , 106 , 1409 – 1435 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) finding of an important contextual effect of drug firms' marketing effort is misleading. I also show that the social network in which physicians are situated significantly contributes to their adoptions, controlling for baseline internal contagion effects and individual-level characteristics of physicians, which have been emphasized in investigations of these data.     

Pricing and Hedging of Lookback Options in Hyper-exponential Jump Diffusion Models

ABSTRACT

In this article, we consider the problem of pricing lookback options in certain exponential Lévy market models. While in the classic Black-Scholes models the price of such options can be calculated in closed form, for more general asset price model, one typically has to rely on (rather time-intense) Monte-Carlo or partial (integro)-differential equation (P(I)DE) methods. However, for Lévy processes with double exponentially distributed jumps, the lookback option price can be expressed as one-dimensional Laplace transform (cf. Kou, S. G., Petrella, G., & Wang, H. (2005). Pricing path-dependent options with jump risk via Laplace transforms. The Kyoto Economic Review, 74(9), 1–23.). The key ingredient to derive this representation is the explicit availability of the first passage time distribution for this particular Lévy process, which is well-known also for the more general class of hyper-exponential jump diffusions (HEJDs). In fact, Jeannin and Pistorius (Jeannin, M., & Pistorius, M. (2010). A transform approach to calculate prices and Greeks of barrier options driven by a class of Lévy processes. Quntitative Finance, 10(6), 629–644.) were able to derive formulae for the Laplace transformed price of certain barrier options in market models described by HEJD processes. Here, we similarly derive the Laplace transforms of floating and fixed strike lookback option prices and propose a numerical inversion scheme, which allows, like Fourier inversion methods for European vanilla options, the calculation of lookback options with different strikes in one shot. Additionally, we give semi-analytical formulae for several Greeks of the option price and discuss a method of extending the proposed method to generalized hyper-exponential (as e.g. NIG or CGMY) models by fitting a suitable HEJD process. Finally, we illustrate the theoretical findings by some numerical experiments.     

Birds of Moderately Different Feathers: Bandwagon Dynamics and the Threshold Heterogeneity of Network Neighbors

We present a simple combinatorial model of group decision‐making in a dichotomous choice situation. The independent variables in the model are group size and mean judgmental competence of group members. The dependent variables are the probabilities that the majority judgment of the group will be correct and that the best member of the group will be more likely to be correct than the group majority.

Two applications of this model are given: one a determination of isocompetence curves of groups of differing sizes and mean competence levels, the other an explication of the potential mechanisms accounting for Parkinson's only partly tongue‐in‐cheek observation that the point of ineffectiveness in a group seems to be reached when its total membership exceeds 20 or 21.     

网络结构、采纳者偏好与创新扩散:基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型仿真分析

在对采纳者决策过程分析的基础上,将网络结构和采纳者偏好作为核心参数,构建基于采纳者决策过程的创新扩散系统动力学模型。对模型进行仿真发现,在采纳者趋同化偏好条件下,网络平均度、网络重连概率与采纳者偏好强度的变动趋势与创新扩散效率的变动趋势相同,而在采纳者差异化偏好条件下则与创新扩散效率变动趋势相反。网络平均路径长度对创新扩散的影响方向与采纳者偏好特征无关,提高网络平均路径长度会始终降低创新扩散的效率。采纳者的趋同化偏好能够放大创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度,采纳者差异化偏好则会缩小创新扩散对网络结构变量与采纳者偏好强度变量的敏感程度。研究结果对于制定创新推广策略具有一定的指导意义。     

基于演化博弈的制造企业服务创新扩散研究

制造企业服务化是我国实现制造强国的必经之路,本文以“中国制造2025”战略为背景,通过借鉴创新扩散和演化博弈理论,对社会系统中参与服务创新的相关主体进行分析,构建政府与企业之间演化博弈模型,结合并改进Bass经典创新扩散模型,探究政府规制行为对企业服务创新行为演化及扩散的影响,利用Matlab对复制动态方程和扩散模型进行数学推导和数值仿真分析。结果表明:当满足政府的社会总收益大于其调控成本和各项补贴总额且企业选择服务创新策略时收益的额外增加额大于其实际投入时,系统才会演化至政府调控且企业采纳服务创新的稳定状态;适当增加政府对企业的调控力度、投入补贴和税收补贴有助于推进服务创新在系统中的扩散,其中税收补贴的感知能力最强,投入补贴最弱;将抑制系数引入Bass创新扩散模型,构建互补型、竞争型和替代型三种服务创新的扩散模式,其中竞争型扩散符合中国现阶段市场规律,替代性扩散将成为未来制造企业的发展趋势。     

Performance of Organizational Design Models and Their Impact on Organization Learning

The performance of various organizational structures is an essential parameter in the reengineering of organizations, particularly in the current rapidly changing, competitive and information technology-dependent environment. This situation has generally resulted in a smaller workforce confronted with voluminous information-processing requirements. Naturally, the focus has been on the design of organzations that will support effective and efficient learning processes. This specific study is on the contingency modely by Ouksel et al. (1997) on the impact of organizational structure on organizational learning and performance. It expands the empirical evaluation of the model to test its robustness. This is done by conducting extensive simulations with (a) a larger number of variables in the decision tasks, and (b) a larger set of numbers for each of the numeric variables, than has been used in the past. Overall, the validity of previous results achieved has been confirmed, but the selection of the most appropriate design, that which will indeed improve learning, is even more nuanced than past studies have concluded.     

负面口碑、社会互动与创新扩散:基于小世界网络的仿真

为探究创新扩散失败的原因及作用机理,在创新扩散微观模型中引入负面口碑,建立个体在社会互动影响下的决策模型,并进行小世界网络中的多智能体仿真分析,研究网络结构、抵抗领袖比例、意见领袖创新性和社会规范约束力对创新扩散的影响。结果表明,考虑负面口碑的创新扩散曲线呈“S”形变化,但扩散深度受限;高度聚集的社会网络更有利于创新扩散。抵抗领袖比例越高,创新扩散速度和深度越小,且负面口碑作用范围越大;当抵抗领袖比例高于意见领袖比例时则会导致扩散失败。意见领袖创新性的提高可以缓解负面口碑的消极影响并促进创新扩散。社会规范约束力对创新扩散深度的影响随网络结构变化呈现不同态势。研究不但丰富了现有创新扩散理论,而且对开发创新推广策略具有指导意义。     

基于社会网络结构的创新扩散动力机制及其仿真研究

随着社会资本的大量涌入,创新扩散逐渐受到社会网络关系的影响。在分析了创新扩散机理的基础上,构建了基于不同拓扑结构的创新扩散演化动力模型。将信息获取、领导者创新能力及机会利益作为创新扩散的动力因子。通过利用复杂网络的演化博弈仿真分析,揭示了小世界、无标度等不同网络拓扑结构下,创新技术的扩散情况。仿真结果表明:在网络结构相同的情况下,信息获取对创新扩散的影响较大;在动力因子设定相同的情况下,网络主体连接越规则,创新扩散越充分。     

全生命周期视阈下责任式创新的演化博弈及扩散机制研究

构建政府、企业和公众三方演化博弈模型,并引入Lotka-Volterra模型来探究利益相关者在责任式创新全生命周期中的行为策略演化和相互作用机制,以及不同响应手段对责任式创新扩散的影响。研究结果表明:在责任式创新全生命周期的新生阶段、成长阶段和成熟内化阶段中,政府分别扮演着“倡导人”、“推广人”和“守夜人”的角色,且其在新生阶段对责任式创新的倡导推广直接影响了其后续的扩散状态;在成长阶段和成熟内化阶段中,高额惩罚、低治理成本和公众参与能正向促进企业责任式创新,而适当的激励补贴会避免企业产生“骗补”行为;政府和公众的适当响应手段共同促进责任式创新由共生向全扩散状态演化,而政府的过度倡导推广会导致扩散效率下降。     

Dynamic Strategic Pricing and Speed of Diffusion

Defining speed of diffusion as the amount of time it takes to get from one penetration level to a higher one, we introduce a dynamic model in which we study the link between pricing policy, speed of diffusion, and number of competitors in the market. Our analysis shows that, in the case of strategic (oligopolistic) competition, the speed of diffusion has an important influence on the optimal pricing policy. In particular, we find that higher speeds of diffusion create an incentive to strategically interacting firms to lower their prices.     

A Nonlinear Drift - Diffusion System with Electric Convection Arising in Electrophoretic and Semiconductor Modeling

A multi-dimensional transient drift-diffusion model for (at most) three charged particles, consisting of the continuity equations for the concentrations of the species and the Poisson equation for the electric potential, is considered. The diffusion terms depend on the concentrations. Such a system arises in electrophoretic modeling of three species (neutrally, positively and negatively charged) and in semiconductor theory for two species (positively charged holes and negatively charged electrons). Diffusion terms of degenerate type are also possible in semiconductor modeling. For the initial boundary value problem with mixed Dirichlet - Neumann boundary conditions and general reaction rates, a global existence result is proved. Uniqueness of solutions follows in the Dirichlet boundary case if the diffusion terms are uniformly parabolic or if the initial and boundary densities are strictly positive. Finally, we prove that solutions exist which are positive uniformly in time and globally bounded if the reaction rates satisfy appropriate growth conditions.     

风险分析中的信息扩散及其参数优化

在进行风险分析和评估过程中,经常遇到样本信息不充分,数据不完备,即小样本问题．本文一,用信息扩散方法对两个具体项目进行分析处理,由于篇幅有限文中仅介绍一个．二在黄崇福教授提出的信息扩散基础上,提出两个优化准则,即波动最小准则和有限偏离度准则,应用优化方法,求得参数最优解,结果是十分理想的．     

空气中PM2.5的扩散衰减与预测分析

以西安市2013年1月1日-9月19日的空气污染监测数据为例,采用非稳态的二维多箱模型,综合考虑了风向、季节等因素的影响,对西安市PM2.5的面源污染扩散和衰减规律进行模拟预测,计算模型相对误差;再选用高斯模型对某一天西安市突发情况下PM2.5浓度扩散情况进行点源污染扩散预测,并评价模型的有效性.     

应用拉普拉斯变换和留数法求解常见非稳态扩散情况下的菲克定律

介绍了三维和一维扩散下的菲克定律,以及两类涉及到扩散的实际问题,即求扩散粒子通过曲面的扩散通量和求解扩散粒子的浓度分布.通过拉普拉斯变换和复变函数相关数学理论,求解了菲克扩散定律在无限长介质和有限长介质两种非稳态扩散情况下的解.粒子在无限长介质中的非稳态扩散和浓度分布可通过方程φ(z,t)=Φ·erfc(z/2DT~(1/2))表示.方程为余补高斯误差函数.粒子在有限长介质中的非稳态扩散和浓度分布可通过方程φ(z,t)=Φ+Φ·4/π∑_(n=1)~(+∞)((-1)~n)/(2n-1)cos[z/L(n-1/2)π]e~((D_t)/(L~2)(n-1/2)~2π~2)表示.该方程为无限加和形式,当n≥100000时,φ可以精确到小数点后6位,在方程的图像上不再能观察出由n的取值造成的误差.从方程的图像可得到粒子在扩散介质中达到饱和的时间或粒子扩散到z=0处的时间等具有重要物理意义的参数.