Estimation for incomplete manpower data

Much attention has been paid to both non-parametric and parametric estimation for survival data with right censoring, particularly in the medical literature. In manpower planning the completed length of service until leaving is of great interest, and here also the data are right censored since people are still in service when data collection ends. However, it often occurs that the data are also left truncated since people are already in service at the beginning of data collection. These people have often been neglected both in estimation of the empirical distribution function and also in fitting particular parametric distributions. However, it is important to include them so as to use all the data, particularly when data are only present for a short period. The methods developed were applied to data for the completed length of service of both skilled and unskilled workers where the data were collected over a period of years. Using modified Kaplan-Meier estimation, applied to these data sets, empirical distribution functions were obtained. A number of parametric distributions were also fitted. The goodness of fit of these distributions as predictors of leavers and stayers over a given period was then tested using a chi-squared test.     

The signal model: A model for competing risks of opportunistic maintenance

This paper presents a competing risks reliability model for a system that releases signals each time its condition deteriorates. The released signals are used to inform opportunistic maintenance. The model provides a framework for the determination of the underlying system lifetime from right-censored data, without requiring explicit assumptions about the type of censoring to be made. The parameters of the model are estimated from observational data by using maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate the estimation process through a simulation study. The proposed signal model can be used to support decision-making in optimising preventive maintenance: at a component level, estimates of the underlying failure distribution can be used to identify the critical signal that would trigger maintenance of the individual component; at a multi-component system level, accurate estimates of the component underlying lifetimes are important when making general maintenance decisions. The benefit of good estimation from censored data, when adequate knowledge about the dependence structure is not available, may justify the additional data collection cost in cases where full signal data is not available.     

长度偏差右删失数据下[1mm]比例均值剩余寿命模型的估计方法

本文考虑了长度偏差右删失数据下均值剩余寿命模型的统计推断.当截断变量满足平稳性假设时,长度偏差右删失数据比左截断右删失数据具有更多的信息.为了提高参数估计的效率,我们在估计方程构造中添加了额外信息,通过组合方法获得了新的估计.模拟研究的结果也表明,组合估计方程的方法比仅考虑左截断右删失数据的方法更有效,结果表现更好.     

生存分析中乘积限估计的大样本性质

生存分析中，人们关心的问题之一是利用不完全的寿命调查数据估计生物折寿命分布。在实际问题中，比较常见的不完全数据包括右删失数据，左截断数据和左截断右删失数据。利用这三种数据估计寿命分布时，常用的统计量是乘积限估计。于是，乘积限估计的大样本性质的研究一直受到关注。本文就这方面的研究近况做一比较系统的论述。     

左截断右删失数据分位差估计及其渐近性质

我们研究了左截断右删失数据分位差,基于左截断右删失数据乘积限构造了分位差的经验估计,同时克服经验估计的非光滑性,提出了分位数差的核光滑估计.利用经验过程理论推导出这两个估计的渐近偏差和渐近方差,并且在左截断右删失数据下研究了这两个分位差的大样本性质,获得分位差估计的相合性和渐近正态性.同时给出计算模拟以验证光滑分位差估计的表现,在均方损失的意义下模拟结果表明光滑估计比经验估计具有更好的性质.     

A Bivariate Model for Markov Manpower Planning Systems

Markov models are being extensively used for analysis of manpower planning systems. Most of these models concentrate either on estimating the gradewise distribution of future manpower structure, given the existing structure and promotion policies, or on deriving policies towards promotion, given the required future structure. However, in many large organizations, agreements between employee unions and management result in the framing of policies towards promotion based either on seniority (length of service in the grade) or on performance (as in the case of ‘high fliers’). In this paper these two criteria are considered in a bivariate distribution framework. The transition probabilities for promotion obtained from the Markov model are further translated into required seniority and performance rating. The procedure is illustrated through an example.     

Cohort Analysis Technique for Long-Term Manpower Planning: the Case of a Hong Kong Tertiary Institution

This paper considers the problem of long-term manpower planning on the number of teaching staff for the case of a tertiary institution—the City Polytechnic of Hong Kong (CPHK). Due to the high turnover experienced in recent years, it is found necessary to study the wastage pattern of staff, defined as the number of new appointees who have left CPHK employment, rather than simply addressing just the issue of strength (namely number in post). A cohort analysis technique is therefore applied to characterize statistically the wastage rate as related to the length of service of individual cohorts of staff, being groups of newcomers joining CPHK in the same periods of time. This results in a log-normal model, showing a significant cohort specific effect on the wastage behaviour. Extending this cohort analysis technique, together with double exponential smoothing forecasts, to future retention rates (1 — cumulative wastage rates), a long-term planning model is constructed to study the relation between expected yearly recruitment levels and the target manpower requirements for the future five-year planning horizon. While the idea and model developed here are generally applicable, the present computational results provide valuable decision supports for an actual case study, for CPHK in particular.     

Edgeworth expansion of the Studentized product-limit estimator for truncated and censored data

Based on random left truncated and right censored data we investigate the one-term Edgeworth expansion for the Studentized product-limit estimator, and show that the Edgeworth expansion is close to the exact distribution of the Studentized product-limit estimator with a remainder of On(su-1/2).     

左截断右删失下核密度估计的L1距离的界

本文在左截断右删失数据下获得了概论密度的核估计的L1距离的一个上界．     

Empirical Likelihood Ratio With Arbitrarily Censored/Truncated Data by EM Algorithm

The empirical likelihood is a general nonparametric inference procedure with many desirable properties. Recently, theoretical results for empirical likelihood with certain censored/truncated data have been developed. However, the computation of empirical likelihood ratios with censored/truncated data is often nontrivial. This article proposes a modified self-consistent/EM algorithm to compute a class of empirical likelihood ratios for arbitrarily censored/truncated data with a mean type constraint. Simulations show that the chi-square approximations of the log-empirical likelihood ratio perform well. Examples and simulations are given in the following cases: (1) right-censored data with a mean parameter; and (2) left-truncated and right-censored data with a mean type parameter.     

基于左截断右删失数据的单参数Pareto分布参数估计

基于EM算法及极大似然法研究了左截断右删失数据下单参数Pareto分布的参数估计,导出其迭代式,并应用随机模拟对参数估计式进行了模拟检验,结果表明迭代式能够快速收敛,EM估计值较为精确.     

双侧截断数据的中位数回归(英文)

在很多实际应用中,个体寿命时间可能被同时左截断与右截断.本文在左右截断变量都能被观察到的假设下,提出了一种半参数推断方法,来分析协变量对于相应寿命时间或其某种变换的中位数的影响,并讨论了所得估计量的渐近性质.此外,本文还提供了一种基于经验似然的回归参数推断方法,并讨论了将这些方法推广到经典双侧截断数据的可能性.一些模拟计算被用于展示这些方法的有效性.     

STRONG REPRESENTATIONS OF THE SURVIVAL FUNCTION ESTIMATOR ON INCREASING SETS FOR TRUNCATED AND CENSORED DATA

1991MRSubjectClassification62G05,62E201IntroductionandtheMainResultsInthisarticlewestudysllrvivaldatawhicharesubjecttobothlefttrull(:ationandrightcensoring(LTRC).Morespecifically,let(X,T,Y)denoterandomvariableswhereXisthevariableofinterest,calledthelifetimevariable,withunknowndistributionfullctioll(d.f.)F;Tistherandomlefttruncatiolltiliiewitharbitraryd.f.G,andYistherandorl.1rightcensoringtirliewitharbitraryd.f.H.ItisassumedthatX,T,Yarerxlutuallyindependent.Intheran相似文献   

KERNEL ESTIMATION OF HIGHER DERIVATIVES OF DENSITY AND HAZARD RATE FUNCTION FOR TRUNCATED AND CENSORED DEPENDENT DATA

Based on left truncated and right censored dependent data, the estimators of higher derivatives of density function and hazard rate function are given by kernel smoothing method. When observed data exhibit α-mixing dependence, local properties including strong consistency and law of iterated logarithm are presented. Moreover, when the mode estimator is defined as the random variable that maximizes the kernel density estimator, the asymptotic normality of the mode estimator is established.     

左截断右删失下一类泛函估计的渐近性质

在左截断右删失下,本文讨论了一类广义Von－Mises泛函估计的渐近性质．在一定条件下,得到了此类泛函估计的强逼近和U-统计量表示,并由此得出它的强相合性、渐近正态性及重对数律．     

The strong law for the integral of P-L estimate under left truncation and right censoring

For left truncated and right censored model, letF _n be the product-limit estimate and φ a nonnegative measurable function. The almost sure limits of the cumulative hazard function based onF _n pd the integral ∫ ϕdF _n are given. The results are useful in establishing strong consistent results of various estimates. For left truncated data, similar results were obtained in literature.     

A U-statistic test in competing risk models

We consider a situation in which systems are subject to failure from competing risks or could be censored from an independent censoring process. A procedure, based on a U-statistic, is proposed for testing the equality of two failure rates in the competing risks set. Under independence assumptions, the asymptotic distribution of the statistic is given and used to construct the test. To cite this article: N. Molinari, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 341 (2005).     

Bootstrap for the conditional distribution function with truncated and censored data

We propose a resampling method for left truncated and right censored data with covariables to obtain a bootstrap version of the conditional distribution function estimator. We derive an almost sure representation for this bootstrapped estimator and, as a consequence, the consistency of the bootstrap is obtained. This bootstrap approximation represents an alternative to the normal asymptotic distribution and avoids the estimation of the complicated mean and variance parameters of the latter.     

A Grade-Specific Stochastic Model for the Analysis of Wastage in Manpower Systems

A stochastic model for a hierarchically-structured company is presented which accounts for the effect on wastage of the internal structure of the company and the promotion experience of its employees. We differentiate two main reasons for leaving, owing to the company's internal structure, and the model is formulated on the basis of the joint probabilities of the employee being in service or having left the company because of either reason by time t and his promotion experience up to t. It is shown that the model provides a good fit to a variety of observed leaving patterns of five large companies, explains the relationship between a number of important occupational variables and is useful for planning purposes in predicting future developments.     

Relative deficiency of quantile estimators for left truncated and right censored data

The quantity deficiency which was proposed by Hodges and Lehmann (1970) is used to compare different statistical procedures. In this article, the deficiency of the sample quantile estimator with respect to the kernel quantile estimator for left truncated and right censored (LTRC) data in the sense of Hodges and Lehmann is considered. We also give the optimal bandwidth for the kernel quantile estimator. Monte Carlo studies are conducted to illustrate our results.