A heuristic method for non-homogeneous redundancy optimization of series-parallel multi-state systems

This paper develops an efficient heuristic to solve the non-homogeneous redundancy allocation problem for multi-state series-parallel systems. Non identical components can be used in parallel to improve the system availability by providing redundancy in subsystems. Multiple component choices are available for each subsystem. The components are binary and chosen from a list of products available on the market, and are characterized in terms of their cost, performance and availability. The objective is to determine the minimal-cost series-parallel system structure subject to a multi-state availability constraint. System availability is represented by a multi-state availability function, which extends the binary-state availability. This function is defined as the ability to satisfy consumer demand that is represented as a piecewise cumulative load curve. A fast procedure is used, based on universal generating function, to evaluate the multi-state system availability. The proposed heuristic approach is based on a combination of space partitioning, genetic algorithms (GA) and tabu search (TS). After dividing the search space into a set of disjoint subsets, this approach uses GA to select the subspaces, and applies TS to each selected subspace. The design problem, solved in this study, has been previously analyzed using GA. Numerical results for the test problems from previous research are reported, and larger test problems are randomly generated. These results show that the proposed approach is efficient both in terms of both of solution quality and computational time, as compared to existing approaches.     

Joint optimization of fleet size and maintenance capacity in a fork-join cyclical transportation system

This article presents an asset management-oriented multi-criteria methodology for the joint estimation of a mobile equipment fleet size, and the maintenance capacity to be allocated in a productive system. Using a business-centred life-cycle perspective, we propose an integrated analytical model and evaluate it using global cost rate, availability and throughput as performance indicators. The global cost components include: (i) opportunity costs associated with lost production, (ii) vehicle idle time costs, and (iii) maintenance resources idle time costs. This multi-criteria approach allows a balanced scorecard to be built that identifies the main trade-offs in the system. The methodology uses an improved closed network queueing model approach to describe the production and maintenance areas. We test the proposed methodology using an underground mining operation case study. The decision variables are the size of a load-haul-dump fleet and specialized maintenance crew levels. Our model achieves savings of 20.6% in global cost terms with respect to a benchmark case. We also optimize the system to achieve desired targets of vehicle availability and system throughput (based on system utilization). The results show increments of 7.1% in vehicle availability and 13.5% in system throughput with respect to baseline case. For the case studied, these criteria also have a maximum, which allows for further improvement if desired. The results also show the importance of using balanced performance measures in the decision process. A multi-criteria optimization was also performed, showing the Pareto front of considered indicators. We discuss the trade-offs among different criteria, and the implications in finding balanced solutions. The proposed analytical approach is easy to implement and requires low computational effort. It also allows for an easy re-evaluation of resources when the business cycle changes and relevant exogenous factors vary.     

A general repeat inspection plan for dependent multicharacteristic critical components

A component is critical if it causes disaster or a very high cost upon failure. Multicharacteristic critical components exist in many systems. Such components could be a part of an aircraft, space shuttle, a special weapon system or a gas ignition system. In many situations, characteristics’ failures of these components are statistically dependent. In this paper, a new inspection plan for such components is proposed. A mathematical model that depicts the plan is developed and an example demonstrating the results of the model is given. The advantage of this model over the other model where independence of the characteristics’ failure is assumed for the case of dependency is illustrated. The model resulted in an average of 32.4% reduction in cost compared to the situation where the dependency case is solved assuming statistical independence.     

Generalized linear models for dependent frequency and severity of insurance claims

Traditionally, claim counts and amounts are assumed to be independent in non-life insurance. This paper explores how this often unwarranted assumption can be relaxed in a simple way while incorporating rating factors into the model. The approach consists of fitting generalized linear models to the marginal frequency and the conditional severity components of the total claim cost; dependence between them is induced by treating the number of claims as a covariate in the model for the average claim size. In addition to being easy to implement, this modeling strategy has the advantage that when Poisson counts are assumed together with a log-link for the conditional severity model, the resulting pure premium is the product of a marginal mean frequency, a modified marginal mean severity, and an easily interpreted correction term that reflects the dependence. The approach is illustrated through simulations and applied to a Canadian automobile insurance dataset.     

Probabilistic modeling of computer system availability

System availability is becoming an increasingly important factor in evaluating the behavior of commercial computer systems. This is due to the increased dependence of enterprises on continuously operating computer systems and to the emphasis on fault-tolerant designs. Thus, we expect availability modeling to be of increasing interest to computer system analysts and for performance models and availability models to be used to evaluate combined performance/availability (performability) measures. Since commercial computer systems are repairable, availability measures are of greater interest than reliability measures. Reliability measures are typically used to evaluate nonrepairable systems such as occur in military and aerospace applications. We will discuss system aspects which should be represented in an availability model; however, our main focus is a state of the art summary of analytical and numerical methods used to solve computer system availability models. We will consider both transient and steady-state availability measures and for transient measures, both expected values and distributions. We are developing a program package for system availability modeling and intend to incorporate the best solution methods.     

Optimal corrective maintenance contract planning for aging multi‐state system

This paper considers an aging multi‐state system, where the system failure rate varies with time. After any failure, maintenance is performed by an external repair team. Repair rate and cost of each repair are determined by a corresponding corrective maintenance contract with a repair team. The service market can provide different kinds of maintenance contracts to the system owner, which also can be changed after each specified time period. The owner of the system would like to determine a series of repair contracts during the system life cycle in order to minimize the total expected cost while satisfying the system availability. Operating cost, repair cost and penalty cost for system failures should be taken into account. The paper proposes a method for determining such optimal series of maintenance contracts. The method is based on the piecewise constant approximation for an increasing failure rate function in order to assess lower and upper bounds of the total expected cost and system availability by using Markov models. The genetic algorithm is used as the optimization technique. Numerical example is presented to illustrate the approach. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Availability allocation and multi-objective optimization for parallel–series systems

Availability allocation is required when the manufacturer is obliged to allocate proper availability to various components in order to design an end product to meet specified requirements. This paper proposes a new multi-objective genetic algorithm, namely simulated annealing based multi-objective genetic algorithm (saMOGA), to resolve the availability allocation and optimization problems of a repairable system, specifically a parallel–series system. Compared with a general multi-objective genetic algorithm, the major feature of the saMOGA is that it can accept a poor solution with a small probability in order to enlarge the searching space and avoid the local optimum. The saMOGA aims to determine the optimal decision variables, i.e. failure rates, repair rates, and the number of components in each subsystem, according to multiple objectives, such as system availability, system cost and system net profit. The proposed saMOGA is compared with three other multi-objective genetic algorithms. Computational results showed that the proposed approach could provide higher solution quality and greater computing efficiency.     

Planning performance based contracts considering reliability and uncertain system usage

This paper investigates a novel quantitative approach for planning and contracting performance-based logistics in the presence of uncertain system usage. Our efforts focus on an integrated service delivery environment where the manufacturer develops capital-intensive systems and also provides after-sales support. We propose an analytical model to characterize system operational availability by comprehending five performance drivers: inherent failure rate, usage rate, spare parts inventory, repair time, and the fleet size. This analytical insight into the system performance allows the service supplier to minimize the total cost across system design, production, maintenance, and repair. Two contracting schemes are investigated under cost minimization and profit maximization schemes. For the first time in literature, reliability design and service parts logistics are seamlessly integrated into one decision support model for improving operational availability while lowering the lifecycle cost. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed decision support tool.     

A simulation approach to reliability analysis of weapon systems

We report a modeling simulation approach to analyse weapon systems reliability. The introduced functional diagram generalises the logic diagram allowing the replication on the functioning mode of system components. To handle the functional diagram, the availability and connection rules are also introduced. Based on the functional diagram, a simulation model is outlined and a case study, the propulsion system of a Mine Hunter, is included.     

Matrix shrinkage of high-dimensional expectation vectors

The shrinkage effect is studied in estimating the expectation vector by weighting of mean vector components in the system of coordinates in which sample covariance matrix is diagonal. The Kolmogorov asymptotic approach is applied, when sample size increases together with the dimension, so that their ratio tends to a constant. Under some weak assumptions on the dependence of variables, the limit expression for the principal part of the quadratic risk function is found in dependence of weighting function. It is proved that the limit risk function does not depend on distributions. The extremum problem is solved, and an approximately unimprovable distribution-free estimator of the expectation vector is proposed.     

基于分段损失分布法和Copula的银行操作风险集成度量

多个风险单元的集成度量是银行操作风险管理的关键步骤之一。立足于操作风险的“厚尾”、“截断”性,从分段损失分布法的视角出发,探讨操作风险集成度量的模式和数值方法。首先,引入两阶段损失分布法来拟合单个风险单元边际损失分布,用双截尾分布代替传统的完整分布来刻画“高频低损”损失数据的双截断特性,利用POT模型捕获“低频高损”事件的厚尾特性。再次,基于分段建模思路,对传统度量过程中边际分布为单一、完整分布的Copula模型进行了扩展,研究边际分布为分段分布、截尾分布条件下使用Copula函数集成度量操作风险的框架和步骤,并设计了Monte Carlo模拟算法。最后,以实证分析的形式验证所构建模型。通过对中国商业银行416个操作风险损失数据的实证分析,结果表明分段分布、截尾分布能对单个风险单元边际分布有更好的拟合效果,能减小由于分布选择不当而引发的模型风险。分段度量视角下Copula函数的引入能灵活处理多个操作风险单元间的相依结构,使风险度量结果更为合理。     

Representing Sparse Gaussian DAGs as Sparse R-Vines Allowing for Non-Gaussian Dependence

Modeling dependence in high-dimensional systems has become an increasingly important topic. Most approaches rely on the assumption of a multivariate Gaussian distribution such as statistical models on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). They are based on modeling conditional independencies and are scalable to high dimensions. In contrast, vine copula models accommodate more elaborate features like tail dependence and asymmetry, as well as independent modeling of the marginals. This flexibility comes however at the cost of exponentially increasing complexity for model selection and estimation. We show a novel connection between DAGs with limited number of parents and truncated vine copulas under sufficient conditions. This motivates a more general procedure exploiting the fast model selection and estimation of sparse DAGs while allowing for non-Gaussian dependence using vine copulas. By numerical examples in hundreds of dimensions, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms the standard method for vine structure selection. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Robust suboptimal control of nonlinear systems

In this paper, we consider a nonlinear dynamic system with uncertain parameters. Our goal is to choose a control function for this system that balances two competing objectives: (i) the system should operate efficiently; and (ii) the system’s performance should be robust with respect to changes in the uncertain parameters. With this in mind, we introduce an optimal control problem with a cost function penalizing both the system cost (a function of the final state reached by the system) and the system sensitivity (the derivative of the system cost with respect to the uncertain parameters). We then show that the system sensitivity can be computed by solving an auxiliary initial value problem. This result allows one to convert the optimal control problem into a standard Mayer problem, which can be solved directly using conventional techniques. We illustrate this approach by solving two example problems using the software MISER3.     

Manufacturing delivery performance for supply chain management

This paper considers single-stage make-to-order production systems. We focus on (1) modeling the appropriate expected costs under a variety of modeling assumptions and (2) characterizing the optimal policies. Our approach to solving the problem is to derive the distribution of actual completion times of the process for individual orders and to compare it to the corresponding quoted due dates in order to obtain the expected total costs. We then show the convexity of the objective cost function for determining the decision variable(s), the planned customer order leadtime.     

Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Cost Function Using Data Envelopment Analysis: an Application to the AT&T Divestiture

This study develops a new use of data envelopment analysis for estimating a stochastic frontier cost function that is assumed to have two different error components: a one-sided disturbance (representing technical and allocative inefficiencies) and a two-sided disturbance (representing an observational error). The two error components are handled by data envelopment analysis in combination with goal programming/constrained regression. The approach proposed in this study can avoid several statistical assumptions used in conventional methods for estimating a stochastic frontier function. As an important application, this study uses the estimation technique to obtain an AT&T stochastic frontier cost function. As a result, this study measures technical and allocative efficiencies of AT&T production process and review its natural monopoly issue. The estimated stochastic frontier cost function is also compared with the other cost function models used for previous studies concerning the divestiture of the telephone industry.     

Geometrical optics and post shock behavior for nonlinear conservation laws

In this paper we present an approach to the study of nonlinear waves and shocks associated with signaling problems for hyperbolic systems of conservation laws. Our approach employs a nonlinear phase variable, treats problems for which the flux function (and hence the matrix coefficients in the quasilinear system of partial differential equations) has explicit spatial dependence, and provides the post shock representation for the solution.     

Optimal Guaranteed Cost Control of Stochastic Discrete-Time Systems with States and Input Dependent Noise Under Markovian Switching

A problem of robust guaranteed cost control of stochastic discrete-time systems with parametric uncertainties under Markovian switching is considered. The control is simultaneously applied to both the random and the deterministic components of the system. The noise (the random) term depends on both the states and the control input. The jump Markovian switching is modeled by a discrete-time Markov chain and the noise or stochastic environmental disturbance is modeled by a sequence of identically independently normally distributed random variables. Using linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) approach, the robust quadratic stochastic stability is obtained. The proposed control law for this quadratic stochastic stabilization result depended on the mode of the system. This control law is developed such that the closed-loop system with a cost function has an upper bound under all admissible parameter uncertainties. The upper bound for the cost function is obtained as a minimization problem. Two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the potential of the proposed techniques and obtained results.     

Optimal maintenance policy in a multistate deteriorating standby system

An optimal maintenance policy for a multistate deteriorating standby system is proposed in this study. Traditionally, a system could only presume two operational states: success or failure, and the maintenance policy is to determine the optimal number of standby components, subject to factors such as maintenance capability, cost of the standby items, etc., so as to minimize the operational cost. This study considers a more general production system in which progressive deterioration is incurred during the operating time, hence resulting in degrading performance. By modeling the system as a multistate deteriorating system, an optimal maintenance policy is obtained by determining the optimal number of standby components required in the system and the optimal state in which the replacement of deteriorating components shall be made.     

Variational Bayes and the Reduced Dependence Approximation for the Autologistic Model on an Irregular Grid With Applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices, which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the entire lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and that may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios, enabling us to implement a practical and efficient nonsimulation-based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The online supplementary materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.