Asymptotic properties of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters in item response theory

Asymptotic cumulants of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters using marginal likelihood in item response theory are derived up to the fourth order with added higher-order asymptotic variances under possible model misspecification. Among them, only the first asymptotic cumulant and the higher-order asymptotic variance for an estimator are different from those by maximum likelihood. Corresponding results for studentized Bayes estimators and asymptotically bias-corrected ones are also obtained. It was found that all the asymptotic cumulants of the bias-corrected Bayes estimator up to the fourth order and the higher-order asymptotic variance are identical to those by maximum likelihood with bias correction. Numerical illustrations are given with simulations in the case when the 2-parameter logistic model holds. In the numerical illustrations, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are used, where the same independent log-normal priors are employed for discriminant parameters and the hierarchical model is adopted for the prior of difficulty parameters.     

Asymptotic distributions of robust shape matrices and scales

It has been frequently observed in the literature that many multivariate statistical methods require the covariance or dispersion matrix Σ of an elliptical distribution only up to some scaling constant. If the topic of interest is not the scale but only the shape of the elliptical distribution, it is not meaningful to focus on the asymptotic distribution of an estimator for Σ or another matrix Γ∝Σ. In the present work, robust estimators for the shape matrix and the associated scale are investigated. Explicit expressions for their joint asymptotic distributions are derived. It turns out that if the joint asymptotic distribution is normal, the estimators presented are asymptotically independent for one and only one specific choice of the scale function. If it is non-normal (this holds for example if the estimators for the shape matrix and scale are based on the minimum volume ellipsoid estimator) only the scale function presented leads to asymptotically uncorrelated estimators. This is a generalization of a result obtained by Paindaveine [D. Paindaveine, A canonical definition of shape, Statistics and Probability Letters 78 (2008) 2240-2247] in the context of local asymptotic normality theory.     

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of estimators in canonical correlation analysis under nonnormality

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of typical estimators in canonical correlation analysis under nonnormality are obtained. The expansions include the Edgeworth expansions up to order O(1/n) for the parameter estimators standardized by the population standard errors, and the corresponding expansion by Hall's method with variable transformation. The expansions for the Studentized estimators are also given using the Cornish-Fisher expansion and Hall's method. The parameter estimators are dealt with in the context of estimation for the covariance structure in canonical correlation analysis. The distributions of the associated statistics (the structure of the canonical variables, the scaled log likelihood ratio and Rozeboom's between-set correlation) are also expanded. The robustness of the normal-theory asymptotic variances of the sample canonical correlations and associated statistics are shown when a latent variable model holds. Simulations are performed to see the accuracy of the asymptotic results in finite samples.     

Cornish-Fisher expansions using sample cumulants and monotonic transformations

General formulas of the asymptotic cumulants of a studentized parameter estimator are given up to the fourth order with the added higher-order asymptotic variance. Using the sample counterparts of the asymptotic cumulants, formulas for the Cornish-Fisher expansions with third-order accuracy are obtained. Some new methods of monotonic transformations of the studentized estimator are presented. In addition, similar transformations of a fixed normal deviate are proposed up to the same order with some asymptotic comparisons to the transformations of the studentized estimator. Applications to a mean and a binomial proportion are shown with simulations for estimation of the proportion.     

Asymptotic expansions for the ability estimator in item response theory

Asymptotic approximations to the distributions of the ability estimator and its transformations in item response theory are derived beyond the usual normal one when associated item parameters are given as in tailored testing. For the approximations, the asymptotic cumulants of the estimators up to the fourth order with the higher-order asymptotic variances are obtained under possible model misspecification. For testing and interval estimation of abilities, the asymptotic cumulants of the pivots studentized in four ways are derived. Numerical examples with simulations including those for confidence intervals for abilities are given using the three-parameter logistic model.     

Asymptotic expansions for the pivots using log-likelihood derivatives with an application in item response theory

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of the pivotal statistics involving log-likelihood derivatives under possible model misspecification are derived using the asymptotic cumulants up to the fourth-order and the higher-order asymptotic variance. The pivots dealt with are the studentized ones by the estimated expected information, the negative Hessian matrix, the sum of products of gradient vectors, and the so-called sandwich estimator. It is shown that the first three asymptotic cumulants are the same over the pivots under correct model specification with a general condition of the equalities. An application is given in item response theory, where the observed information is usually used rather than the estimated expected one.     

Statistical inference in a panel data semiparametric regression model with serially correlated errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown vector β of regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function g(·) for nonlinear component, and unobservable serially correlated errors. The correlated errors are modeled by a vector autoregressive process which involves a constant intraclass correlation. Applying the pilot estimators of β and g(·), we construct estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, the intraclass correlation and the error variance, and investigate their asymptotic properties. Fitting the error structure results in a new semiparametric two-step estimator of β, which is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Asymptotic normality of this new estimator is established, and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix is presented. Furthermore, a corresponding estimator of g(·) is also provided. These results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inference. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of these proposed estimators.     

On the distribution of penalized maximum likelihood estimators: The LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding

We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu [K. Knight, W. Fu, Asymptotics for lasso-type estimators, Annals of Statistics 28 (2000) 1356–1378] and Fan and Li [J. Fan, R. Li, Variable selection via non-concave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 (2001) 1348–1360]. We show that the distributions are typically highly non-normal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rate of these estimators is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than n^−1/2 in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. An impossibility result regarding estimation of the estimators’ distribution function is also provided.     

Asymptotic Comparisons of Several Variance Estimators and their Effects for Studentizations

In this paper we obtain asymptotic representations of several variance estimators of U-statistics and study their effects for studentizations via Edgeworth expansions. Jackknife, unbiased and Sen's variance estimators are investigated up to the order o^p(n^-1). Substituting these estimators to studentized U-statistics, the Edgeworth expansions with remainder term o(n^-1) are established and inverting the expansions, the effects on confidence intervals are discussed theoretically. We also show that Hinkley's corrected jackknife variance estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the unbiased variance estimator up to the order o^p(n^-1).     

Asymptotic expansion of Bayes estimators for small diffusions

Summary Using the Malliavin calculus we derived asymptotic expansion of the distributions of the Bayes estimators for small diffusions. The second order efficiency of the Bayes estimator is proved.     

Smooth estimation of survival and density functions for a stationary associated process using Poisson weights

Let {X_n,n≥1} be a sequence of stationary non-negative associated random variables with common marginal density f(x). Here we use the empirical survival function as studied in Bagai and Prakasa Rao (1991) and apply the smoothing technique proposed by Gawronski (1980) (see also Chaubey and Sen, 1996) in proposing a smooth estimator of the density function f and that of the corresponding survival function. Some asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators, similar to those obtained in Chaubey and Sen (1996) for the i.i.d. case, are derived. A simulation study has been carried out to compare the new estimator to the kernel estimator of a density function given in Bagai and Prakasa Rao (1996) and the estimator in Buch-Larsen et al. (2005).     

Simultaneous estimation of Poisson means

In the simultaneous estimation of means from independent Poisson distributions, an estimator is developed which incorporates a prior mean and variance for each Poisson mean estimated. This estimator possesses substantially smaller risk than the usual estimator in a region of the parameter space and seems superior to other estimators proposed to estimate p Poisson means. It is indicated through two asymptotic results that, unlike the conjugate Bayes estimator, the risk of the estimator does not greatly exceed the risk of the usual estimator outside of the region of risk improvement.     

Robust weighted orthogonal regression in the errors-in-variables model

This paper focuses on robust estimation in the structural errors-in-variables (EV) model. A new class of robust estimators, called weighted orthogonal regression estimators, is introduced. Robust estimators of the parameters of the EV model are simply derived from robust estimators of multivariate location and scatter such as the M-estimators, the S-estimators and the MCD estimator. The influence functions of the proposed estimators are calculated and shown to be bounded. Moreover, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimators and illustrate the results on simulated examples and on a real-data set.     

Weighted L2 quantile distance estimators for randomly censored data

The asymptotic properties of a family of minimum quantile distance estimators for randomly censored data sets are considered. These procedures produce an estimator of the parameter vector that minimizes a weighted L² distance measure between the Kaplan-Meier quantile function and an assumed parametric family of quantile functions. Regularity conditions are provided which insure that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. An optimal weight function is derived for single parameter families, which, for location/scale families, results in censored sample analogs of estimators such as those suggested by Parzen.     

Efficient estimators and LAN in canonical bivariate POT models

Bivariate generalized Pareto distributions (GPs) with uniform margins are introduced and elementary properties such as peaks-over-threshold (POT) stability are discussed. A unified parameterization with parameter ?∈[0,1] of the GPs is provided by their canonical parameterization. We derive efficient estimators of ? and of the dependence function of the GP in various models and establish local asymptotic normality (LAN) of the loglikelihood function of a 2×2 table sorting of the observations. From this result we can deduce that the estimator of ? suggested by Falk and Reiss (2001, Statist. Probab. Lett. 52, 233-242) is not efficient, whereas a modification actually is.     

Wavelet estimation of conditional density with truncated, censored and dependent data

In this paper we define a new nonlinear wavelet-based estimator of conditional density function for a random left truncation and right censoring model. We provide an asymptotic expression for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of the estimator. It is assumed that the lifetime observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Unlike for kernel estimators, the MISE expression of the wavelet-based estimators is not affected by the presence of discontinuities in the curves. Also, asymptotic normality of the estimator is established.     

Asymptotic expansions in mean and covariance structure analysis

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of parameter estimators in mean and covariance structures are derived. The parameters may be common to, or specific in means and covariances of observable variables. The means are possibly structured by the common/specific parameters. First, the distributions of the parameter estimators standardized by the population asymptotic standard errors are expanded using the single- and the two-term Edgeworth expansions. In practice, the pivotal statistic or the Studentized estimator with the asymptotically distribution-free standard error is of interest. An asymptotic distribution of the pivotal statistic is also derived by the Cornish-Fisher expansion. Simulations are performed for a factor analysis model with nonzero factor means to see the accuracy of the asymptotic expansions in finite samples.     

An asymptotic expansion of the distribution of Rao's U-statistic under a general condition

In this paper we consider the problem of testing the hypothesis about the sub-mean vector. For this propose, the asymptotic expansion of the null distribution of Rao's U-statistic under a general condition is obtained up to order of n^-1. The same problem in the k-sample case is also investigated. We find that the asymptotic distribution of generalized U-statistic in the k-sample case is identical to that of the generalized Hotelling's T² distribution up to n^-1. A simulation experiment is carried out and its results are presented. It shows that the asymptotic distributions have significant improvement when comparing with the limiting distributions both in the small sample case and the large sample case. It also demonstrates the equivalence of two testing statistics mentioned above.     

Cramér-von Mises type estimation of the regression parameter: The rank analogue

A point estimator based on minimization of the rank analogue of the Cramér-von Mises statistic is proposed for the slope parameter β in the simple linear regression model. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator is derived and its variance is compared to the asymptotic variances of several common estimators for β at various underlying distributions.     

On Mardia's and Song's measures of kurtosis in elliptical distributions

The main objective of this paper is the calculation and the comparative study of two general measures of multivariate kurtosis, namely Mardia's measure β_2,p and Song's measure S(f). In this context, general formulas for the said measures are derived for the broad family of the elliptically contoured symmetric distributions and also for specific members of this family, like the multivariate t-distribution, the multivariate Pearson type II, the multivariate Pearson type VII, the multivariate symmetric Kotz type distribution and the uniform distribution in the unit sphere. Analytic expressions for computing Shannon and Rényi entropies are obtained under the elliptic family. The behaviour of Mardia's and Song's measures, their similarities and differences, possible interpretations and uses in practice are investigated by comparing them in specific members of the elliptic family of multivariate distributions. An empirical estimator of Song's measure is moreover proposed and its asymptotic distribution is investigated under the elliptic family of multivariate distributions.