Asymptotic normality of the sample mean and covariances of evanescent fields in noise

We consider the asymptotic properties of the sample mean and the sample covariance sequence of a field composed of the sum of a purely indeterministic and evanescent components. The asymptotic normality of the sample mean and sample covariances is established. A Bartlett-type formula for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample covariances of this field, is derived.     

Fractional-order regularization and wavelet approximation to the inverse estimation problem for random fields

The least-squares linear inverse estimation problem for random fields is studied in a fractional generalized framework. First, the second-order regularity properties of the random fields involved in this problem are analysed in terms of the fractional Sobolev norms. Second, the incorporation of prior information in the form of a fractional stochastic model, with covariance operator bicontinuous with respect to a certain fractional Sobolev norm, leads to a regularization of this problem. Third, a multiresolution approximation to the class of linear inverse problems considered is obtained from a wavelet-based orthogonal expansion of the input and output random models. The least-squares linear estimate of the input random field is then computed using these orthogonal wavelet decompositions. The results are applied to solving two important cases of linear inverse problems defined in terms of fractional integral operators.     

Local likelihood estimation for nonstationary random fields

We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence of faraway observations, works for irregular sampling locations, and when designed appropriately, can trade bias and variance for reducing estimation error. This paper starts with an exposition of our technique on the problem of estimating an unknown positive function when multiplied by a stationary random field. This example gives concrete evidence of the benefits of our local likelihood as compared to unweighted local likelihoods. We then discuss the difficult problem of estimating a bandwidth parameter that controls the amount of influence from distant observations. Finally we present a simulation experiment for estimating the local smoothness of a local Matérn random field when observing the field at random sampling locations in [0,1]². The local Matérn is a fully nonstationary random field, has a closed form covariance, can attain any degree of differentiability or Hölder smoothness and behaves locally like a stationary Matérn. We include an appendix that proves the positive definiteness of this covariance function.     

Estimation of intrinsic processes affected by additive fractal noise

Fractal Gaussian models have been widely used to represent the singular behavior of phenomena arising in different applied fields; for example, fractional Brownian motion and fractional Gaussian noise are considered as monofractal models in subsurface hydrology and geophysical studies Mandelbrot [The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Freeman Press, San Francisco, 1982 [13]]. In this paper, we address the problem of least-squares linear estimation of an intrinsic fractal input random field from the observation of an output random field affected by fractal noise (see Angulo et al. [Estimation and filtering of fractional generalised random fields, J. Austral. Math. Soc. A 69 (2000) 1-26 [2]], Ruiz-Medina et al. [Fractional generalized random fields on bounded domains, Stochastic Anal. Appl. 21 (2003a) 465-492], Ruiz-Medina et al. [Fractional-order regularization and wavelet approximation to the inverse estimation problem for random fields, J. Multivariate Anal. 85 (2003b) 192-216]. Conditions on the fractality order of the additive noise are studied to obtain a bounded inversion of the associated Wiener-Hopf equation. A stable solution is then obtained in terms of orthogonal bases of the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces associated with the random fields involved. Such bases are constructed from orthonormal wavelet bases (see Angulo and Ruiz-Medina [Multiresolution approximation to the stochastic inverse problem, Adv. in Appl. Probab. 31 (1999) 1039-1057], Angulo et al. [Wavelet-based orthogonal expansions of fractional generalized random fields on bounded domains, Theoret. Probab. Math. Stat. (2004), in press]). A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the influence of the fractality orders of the output random field and the fractal additive noise on the stability of the solution derived.     

Representations of the optimal filter in the context of nonlinear filtering of random fields with fractional noise

The problem of nonlinear filtering of multiparameter random fields, observed in the presence of a long-range dependent spatial noise, is considered. When the observation noise is modelled by a persistent fractional Wiener sheet, several pathwise representations of the optimal filter are derived. The representations involve series of multiple stochastic integrals of different types and are particularly important since the evolution equations, satisfied by the best mean-square estimate of the signal random field, have a complicated analytical structure and fail to be proper (measure-valued) stochastic partial differential equations. Several of the above optimal filter representations involve a new family of strong martingale transforms associated to the multiparameter fractional Brownian sheet; the latter martingale family is of independent interest in fractional stochastic calculus of multiparameter random fields.     

Neighborhood radius estimation for variable-neighborhood random fields

We consider random fields defined by finite-region conditional probabilities depending on a neighborhood of the region which changes with the boundary conditions. To predict the symbols within any finite region, it is necessary to inspect a random number of neighborhood symbols which might change according to the value of them. In analogy with the one-dimensional setting we call these neighborhood symbols the context associated to the region at hand. This framework is a natural extension, to d-dimensional fields, of the notion of variable length Markov chains introduced by Rissanen [24] in his classical paper. We define an algorithm to estimate the radius of the smallest ball containing the context based on a realization of the field. We prove the consistency of this estimator. Our proofs are constructive and yield explicit upper bounds for the probability of wrong estimation of the radius of the context.     

Multi-operator scaling random fields

In this paper, we define and study a new class of random fields called harmonizable multi-operator scaling stable random fields. These fields satisfy a local asymptotic operator scaling property which generalizes both the local asymptotic self-similarity property and the operator scaling property. Actually, they locally look like operator scaling random fields, whose order is allowed to vary along the sample paths. We also give an upper bound of their modulus of continuity. Their pointwise Hölder exponents may also vary with the position x and their anisotropic behavior is driven by a matrix which may also depend on x.     

Spatial autoregression and related spatio-temporal models

We propose a spatial autoregressive random field of order p on the spatial domain for p?2 in this paper, whose univariate margins are the continuous-time autoregression of order p on the real line, and introduce a class of semiparametric spatio-temporal covariance models stationary in space with the spatial autoregressive margin.     

On a model selection problem from high-dimensional sample covariance matrices

Modern random matrix theory indicates that when the population size p is not negligible with respect to the sample size n, the sample covariance matrices demonstrate significant deviations from the population covariance matrices. In order to recover the characteristics of the population covariance matrices from the observed sample covariance matrices, several recent solutions are proposed when the order of the underlying population spectral distribution is known. In this paper, we deal with the underlying order selection problem and propose a solution based on the cross-validation principle. We prove the consistency of the proposed procedure.     

Fractional Generalized Random Fields on Bounded Domains

Using the theory of generalized random fields on fractional Sobolev spaces on bounded domains, and the concept of dual generalized random field, this paper introduces a class of random fields with fractional-order pure point spectra. The covariance factorization of an α-generalized random field having a dual is established, leading to a white-noise linear-filter representation, which reduces to the usual Markov representation in the ordinary case when α∈N and the covariance operator of the dual random field is local. Fractional-order differential models commonly arising from anomalous diffusion in disordered media can be studied within this framework.     

Approximating posterior probabilities in a linear model with possibly noninvertible moving average errors

The method of Laplace is used to approximate posterior probabilities for a collection of polynomial regression models when the errors follow a process with a noninvertible moving average component. These results are useful in the problem of period-change analysis of variable stars and in assessing the posterior probability that a time series with trend has been overdifferenced. The nonstandard covariance structure induced by a noninvertible moving average process can invalidate the standard Laplace method. A number of analytical tools is used to produce corrected Laplace approximations. These tools include viewing the covariance matrix of the observations as tending to a differential operator. The use of such an operator and its Green's function provides a convenient and systematic method of asymptotically inverting the covariance matrix.In certain cases there are two different Laplace approximations, and the appropriate one to use depends upon unknown parameters. This problem is dealt with by using a weighted geometric mean of the candidate approximations, where the weights are completely data-based and such that, asymptotically, the correct approximation is used. The new methodology is applied to an analysis of the prototypical long-period variable star known as Mira.     

Estimation of high-dimensional prior and posterior covariance matrices in Kalman filter variants

This work studies the effects of sampling variability in Monte Carlo-based methods to estimate very high-dimensional systems. Recent focus in the geosciences has been on representing the atmospheric state using a probability density function, and, for extremely high-dimensional systems, various sample-based Kalman filter techniques have been developed to address the problem of real-time assimilation of system information and observations. As the employed sample sizes are typically several orders of magnitude smaller than the system dimension, such sampling techniques inevitably induce considerable variability into the state estimate, primarily through prior and posterior sample covariance matrices. In this article, we quantify this variability with mean squared error measures for two Monte Carlo-based Kalman filter variants: the ensemble Kalman filter and the ensemble square-root Kalman filter. Expressions of the error measures are derived under weak assumptions and show that sample sizes need to grow proportionally to the square of the system dimension for bounded error growth. To reduce necessary ensemble size requirements and to address rank-deficient sample covariances, covariance-shrinking (tapering) based on the Schur product of the prior sample covariance and a positive definite function is demonstrated to be a simple, computationally feasible, and very effective technique. Rules for obtaining optimal taper functions for both stationary as well as non-stationary covariances are given, and optimal taper lengths are given in terms of the ensemble size and practical range of the forecast covariance. Results are also presented for optimal covariance inflation. The theory is verified and illustrated with extensive simulations.     

Gaussian fields and Gaussian sheets with generalized Cauchy covariance structure

Two types of Gaussian processes, namely the Gaussian field with generalized Cauchy covariance (GFGCC) and the Gaussian sheet with generalized Cauchy covariance (GSGCC) are considered. Some of the basic properties and the asymptotic properties of the spectral densities of these random fields are studied. The associated self-similar random fields obtained by applying the Lamperti transformation to GFGCC and GSGCC are studied.     

Dimension estimation in sufficient dimension reduction: A unifying approach

Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR) in regression comprises the estimation of the dimension of the smallest (central) dimension reduction subspace and its basis elements. For SDR methods based on a kernel matrix, such as SIR and SAVE, the dimension estimation is equivalent to the estimation of the rank of a random matrix which is the sample based estimate of the kernel. A test for the rank of a random matrix amounts to testing how many of its eigen or singular values are equal to zero. We propose two tests based on the smallest eigen or singular values of the estimated matrix: an asymptotic weighted chi-square test and a Wald-type asymptotic chi-square test. We also provide an asymptotic chi-square test for assessing whether elements of the left singular vectors of the random matrix are zero. These methods together constitute a unified approach for all SDR methods based on a kernel matrix that covers estimation of the central subspace and its dimension, as well as assessment of variable contribution to the lower-dimensional predictor projections with variable selection, a special case. A small power simulation study shows that the proposed and existing tests, specific to each SDR method, perform similarly with respect to power and achievement of the nominal level. Also, the importance of the choice of the number of slices as a tuning parameter is further exhibited.     

Scaling limits of coupled continuous time random walks and residual order statistics through marked point processes

A continuous time random walk (CTRW) is a random walk in which both spatial changes represented by jumps and waiting times between the jumps are random. The CTRW is coupled if a jump and its preceding or following waiting time are dependent random variables (r.v.), respectively. The aim of this paper is to explain the occurrence of different limit processes for CTRWs with forward- or backward-coupling in Straka and Henry (2011) [37] using marked point processes. We also establish a series representation for the different limits. The methods used also allow us to solve an open problem concerning residual order statistics by LePage (1981) [20].     

Spectral representation of intrinsically stationary fields

Transferring the concept of processes with weakly stationary increments to arbitrary locally compact Abelian groups two closely related notions arise: while intrinsically stationary random fields can be seen as a direct analog of intrinsic random functions of order k$k$ applied by G. Matheron in geostatistics, stationarizable random fields arise as a natural analog of definitizable functions in harmonic analysis. We concentrate on intrinsically stationary random fields related to finite-dimensional, translation-invariant function spaces, establish an orthogonal decomposition of random fields of this type, and present spectral representations for intrinsically stationary as well as stationarizable random fields using orthogonal vector measures.     

Characterization of the partial autocorrelation function of nonstationary time series

The second order properties of a process are usually characterized by the autocovariance function. In the stationary case, the parameterization by the partial autocorrelation function is relatively recent. We extend this parameterization to the nonstationary case. The advantage of this function is that it is subject to very simple constraints in comparison with the auto- covariance function which must be nonnegative definite. As in the stationary case, this parameterization is well adapted to autoregressive models or to the identification of deterministic processes.     

Properties of nonparametric estimators of autocovariance for stationary random fields

Summary We introduce nonparametric estimators of the autocovariance of a stationary random field. One of our estimators has the property that it is itself an autocovatiance. This feature enables the estimator to be used as the basis of simulation studies such as those which are necessary when constructing bootstrap confidence intervals for unknown parameters. Unlike estimators proposed recently by other authors, our own do not require assumptions such as isotropy or monotonicity. Indeed, like nonparametric function estimators considered more widely in the context of curve estimation, our approach demands only smoothness and tail conditions on the underlying curve or surface (here, the autocovariance), and moment and mixing conditions on the random field. We show that by imposing the condition that the estimator be a covariance function we actually reduce the numerical value of integrated squared error.     

On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process

Conditions are given under which the empirical copula process associated with a random sample from a bivariate continuous distribution has a smaller asymptotic covariance function than the standard empirical process based on observations from the copula. Illustrations are provided and consequences for inference are outlined.