Bayesian reference analysis for Gaussian Markov random fields

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF) are important families of distributions for the modeling of spatial data and have been extensively used in different areas of spatial statistics such as disease mapping, image analysis and remote sensing. GMRFs have been used for the modeling of spatial data, both as models for the sampling distribution of the observed data and as models for the prior of latent processes/random effects; we consider mainly the former use of GMRFs. We study a large class of GMRF models that includes several models previously proposed in the literature. An objective Bayesian analysis is presented for the parameters of the above class of GMRFs, where explicit expressions for the Jeffreys (two versions) and reference priors are derived, and for each of these priors results on posterior propriety of the model parameters are established. We describe a simple MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the model parameters, and study frequentist properties of the Bayesian inferences resulting from the use of these automatic priors. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed GMRF model and reference prior for studying the spatial variability of lip cancer cases in the districts of Scotland over the period 1975-1980.     

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics

Multivariate dependence of spacings of generalized order statistics is studied. It is shown that spacings of generalized order statistics from DFR (IFR) distributions have the CIS (CDS) property. By restricting the choice of the model parameters and strengthening the assumptions on the underlying distribution, stronger dependence relations are established. For instance, if the model parameters are decreasingly ordered and the underlying distribution has a log-convex decreasing (log-concave) hazard rate, then the spacings satisfy the MTP₂ (S- MRR₂) property. Some consequences of the results are given. In particular, conditions for non-negativity of the best linear unbiased estimator of the scale parameter in a location-scale family are obtained. By applying a result for dual generalized order statistics, we show that in the particular situation of usual order statistics the assumptions can be weakened.     

Equiaffine structures on statistical manifolds and Bayesian statistics

Relations between equiaffine geometry and Bayesian statistics are studied. A prior distribution in Bayesian statistics is regarded as a volume form on a statistical manifold. Applying equiaffine geometry to Bayesian statistics, the relation between alpha-parallel priors and the Jeffreys prior is given. As geometric results, conditions for a statistical submanifold to have an equiaffine structure are also given.     

Distributions of order statistics and linear combinations of order statistics from an elliptical distribution as mixtures of unified skew-elliptical distributions

We consider here the distributions of order statistics and linear combinations of order statistics from an elliptical distribution. We show that these distributions can be expressed as mixtures of unified skew-elliptical distributions, and then use these mixture representations to derive their moment generating functions and moments, when they exist.     

Bayesian shrinkage prediction for the regression problem

We consider Bayesian shrinkage predictions for the Normal regression problem under the frequentist Kullback-Leibler risk function.Firstly, we consider the multivariate Normal model with an unknown mean and a known covariance. While the unknown mean is fixed, the covariance of future samples can be different from that of training samples. We show that the Bayesian predictive distribution based on the uniform prior is dominated by that based on a class of priors if the prior distributions for the covariance and future covariance matrices are rotation invariant.Then, we consider a class of priors for the mean parameters depending on the future covariance matrix. With such a prior, we can construct a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior.Lastly, applying this result to the prediction of response variables in the Normal linear regression model, we show that there exists a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior. Minimaxity of these Bayesian predictions follows from these results.     

Mixture representation for order statistics from INID progressive censoring and its applications

In this paper, a mixture representation for the joint distribution function of progressively Type-II censored order statistics from heterogeneous distributions is established. Applications of this representation to stochastic orderings and inequalities are then illustrated.     

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients.     

Order restricted inference for sequential k-out-of-n systems

Sequential order statistics have been introduced to model sequential k-out-of-n systems which, as an extension of k-out-of-n systems, allow the failure of some components of the system to influence the remaining ones. Based on an independent sample of vectors of sequential order statistics, the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters of a sequential k-out-of-n system are derived under order restrictions. Special attention is paid to the simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and the distribution parameters for a flexible location-scale family. Furthermore, order restricted hypothesis tests are considered for making the decision whether the usual k-out-of-n model or the general sequential k-out-of-n model is appropriate for a given data.     

On minimaxity and admissibility of hierarchical Bayes estimators

This paper obtains conditions for minimaxity of hierarchical Bayes estimators in the estimation of a mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Hierarchical prior distributions with three types of second stage priors are treated. Conditions for admissibility and inadmissibility of the hierarchical Bayes estimators are also derived using the arguments in Berger and Strawderman [Choice of hierarchical priors: admissibility in estimation of normal means, Ann. Statist. 24 (1996) 931-951]. Combining these results yields admissible and minimax hierarchical Bayes estimators.     

Bayesian inference for dependent elliptical measurement error models

In this article we provide a Bayesian analysis for dependent elliptical measurement error models considering nondifferential and differential errors. In both cases we compute posterior distributions for structural parameters by using squared radial prior distributions for the precision parameters. The main result is that the posterior distribution of location parameters, for specific priors, is invariant with respect to changes in the generator function, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, although the results obtained are valid for any elliptical distribution for the error term, we illustrate those results by using the student-t distribution and a real data set.     

Near-exact distributions for the independence and sphericity likelihood ratio test statistics

In this paper we show how, based on a decomposition of the likelihood ratio test for sphericity into two independent tests and a suitably developed decomposition of the characteristic function of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test independence in a set of variates, we may obtain extremely well-fitting near-exact distributions for both test statistics. Since both test statistics have the distribution of the product of independent Beta random variables, it is possible to obtain near-exact distributions for both statistics in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions or mixtures of these distributions. For the independence test statistic, numerical studies and comparisons with asymptotic distributions proposed by other authors show the extremely high accuracy of the near-exact distributions developed as approximations to the exact distribution. Concerning the sphericity test statistic, comparisons with formerly developed near-exact distributions show the advantages of these new near-exact distributions.     

A class of proper priors for Bayesian simultaneous prediction of independent Poisson observables

Simultaneous prediction and parameter inference for the independent Poisson observables model are considered. A class of proper prior distributions for Poisson means is introduced. Bayesian predictive densities and estimators based on priors in the introduced class dominate the Bayesian predictive density and estimator based on the Jeffreys prior under Kullback-Leibler loss.     

The multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution

The main purpose of this paper is the study of the multivariate Behrens-Fisher distribution. It is defined as the convolution of two independent multivariate Student t distributions. Some representations of this distribution as the mixture of known distributions are shown. An important result presented in the paper is the elliptical condition of this distribution in the special case of proportional scale matrices of the Student t distributions in the defining convolution. For the bivariate Behrens-Fisher problem, the authors propose a non-informative prior distribution leading to highest posterior density (H.P.D.) regions for the difference of the mean vectors whose coverage probability matches the frequentist coverage probability more accurately than that obtained using the independence-Jeffreys prior distribution, even with small samples.     

On the dependence structure of order statistics

Given a random sample from a continuous variable, it is observed that the copula linking any pair of order statistics is independent of the parent distribution. To compare the degree of association between two such pairs of ordered random variables, a notion of relative monotone regression dependence (or stochastic increasingness) is considered. Using this concept, it is proved that for i<j, the dependence of the jth order statistic on the ith order statistic decreases as i and j draw apart. This extends earlier results of Tukey (Ann. Math. Statist. 29 (1958) 588) and Kim and David (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 24 (1990) 363). The effect of the sample size on this type of dependence is also investigated, and an explicit expression is given for the population value of Kendall's coefficient of concordance between two arbitrary order statistics of a random sample.     

Bayes minimax estimators of the mean of a scale mixture of multivariate normal distributions

Bayes estimation of the mean of a variance mixture of multivariate normal distributions is considered under sum of squared errors loss. We find broad class of priors (also in the variance mixture of normal class) which result in proper and generalized Bayes minimax estimators. This paper extends the results of Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264] in a manner similar to that of Maruyama [Admissible minimax estimators of a mean vector of scale mixtures of multivariate normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 21 (2003) 69-78] but somewhat more in the spirit of Fourdrinier et al. [On the construction of bayes minimax estimators, Ann. Statist. 26 (1998) 660-671] for the normal case, in the sense that we construct classes of priors giving rise to minimaxity. A feature of this paper is that in certain cases we are able to construct proper Bayes minimax estimators satisfying the properties and bounds in Strawderman [Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 4 (1974) 255-264]. We also give some insight into why Strawderman's results do or do not seem to apply in certain cases. In cases where it does not apply, we give minimax estimators based on Berger's [Minimax estimation of location vectors for a wide class of densities, Ann. Statist. 3 (1975) 1318-1328] results. A main condition for minimaxity is that the mixing distributions of the sampling distribution and the prior distribution satisfy a monotone likelihood ratio property with respect to a scale parameter.     

Estimation of location and scale parameters for the Burr XII distribution using generalized order statistics

The minimum variance linear unbiased estimators (MVLUE), the best linear invariant estimators (BLIE) and the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) based on n-selected generalized order statistics are presented for the parameters of the Burr XII distribution.     

Reliability and expectation bounds for coherent systems with exchangeable components

Sharp upper and lower bounds are obtained for the reliability functions and the expectations of lifetimes of coherent systems based on dependent exchangeable absolutely continuous components with a given marginal distribution function, by use of the concept of Samaniego's signature. We first show that the distribution of any coherent system based on exchangeable components with absolutely continuous joint distribution is a convex combination of distributions of order statistics (equivalent to the k-out-of-n systems) with the weights identical with the values of the Samaniego signature of the system. This extends the Samaniego representation valid for the case of independent and identically distributed components. Combining the representation with optimal bounds on linear combinations of distribution functions of order statistics from dependent identically distributed samples, we derive the corresponding reliability and expectation bounds, dependent on the signature of the system and marginal distribution of dependent components. We also present the sequences of exchangeable absolutely continuous joint distributions of components which attain the bounds in limit. As an application, we obtain the reliability bounds for all the coherent systems with three and four exchangeable components, expressed in terms of the parent marginal reliability function and specify the respective expectation bounds for exchangeable exponential components, comparing them with the lifetime expectations of systems with independent and identically distributed exponential components.     

On the exact distribution of linear combinations of order statistics from dependent random variables

We study the exact distribution of linear combinations of order statistics of arbitrary (absolutely continuous) dependent random variables. In particular, we examine the case where the random variables have a joint elliptically contoured distribution and the case where the random variables are exchangeable. We investigate also the particular L-statistics that simply yield a set of order statistics, and study their joint distribution. We present the application of our results to genetic selection problems, design of cellular phone receivers, and visual acuity. We give illustrative examples based on the multivariate normal and multivariate Student t distributions.     

SOME COMPARISONS BETWEEN GENERALIZED ORDER STATISTICS

Some stochastic comparisons of generalized order statistics under the right spread order,the location independent riskier order and the total time transform order are investigated in this paper.The underlying distributions and parameters on which generalized order statistics are based are also surveyed to obtain the conditions for increasing the expectations of spacings between the first two generalized order statistics and between the last two generalized order statistics.     

Point prediction of future order statistics from an exponential distribution

Two-sample point prediction is considered for a two-parameter exponential distribution. Several point predictors such as the best unbiased predictor, best invariant predictor and maximum likelihood predictor are obtained for future order statistics on the basis of observed record values in two cases: where the location parameter is known and unknown. These predictors are compared in the sense of their mean squared prediction errors. Finally, some numerical results are given to illustrate the proposed procedures.