Recent Developments in Robust Portfolios with a Worst-Case Approach

Robust models have a major role in portfolio optimization for resolving the sensitivity issue of the classical mean–variance model. In this paper, we survey developments of worst-case optimization while focusing on approaches for constructing robust portfolios. In addition to the robust formulations for the Markowitz model, we review work on deriving robust counterparts for value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk problems as well as methods for combining uncertainty in factor models. Recent findings on properties of robust portfolios are introduced, and we conclude by presenting our thoughts on future research directions.     

On the role of norm constraints in portfolio selection

Several optimization approaches for portfolio selection have been proposed in order to alleviate the estimation error in the optimal portfolio. Among them are the norm-constrained variance minimization and the robust portfolio models. In this paper, we examine the role of the norm constraint in portfolio optimization from several directions. First, it is shown that the norm constraint can be regarded as a robust constraint associated with the return vector. Second, the reformulations of the robust counterparts of the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) minimizations contain norm terms and are shown to be highly related to the ν-support vector machine (ν-SVM), a powerful statistical learning method. For the norm-constrained VaR and CVaR minimizations, a nonparametric theoretical validation is posed on the basis of the generalization error bound for the ν-SVM. Third, the norm-constrained approaches are applied to the tracking portfolio problem. Computational experiments reveal that the norm-constrained minimization with a parameter tuning strategy improves on the traditional norm-unconstrained models in terms of the out-of-sample tracking error.     

Robust portfolios that do not tilt factor exposure

Robust portfolios reduce the uncertainty in portfolio performance. In particular, the worst-case optimization approach is based on the Markowitz model and form portfolios that are more robust compared to mean–variance portfolios. However, since the robust formulation finds a different portfolio from the optimal mean–variance portfolio, the two portfolios may have dissimilar levels of factor exposure. In most cases, investors need a portfolio that is not only robust but also has a desired level of dependency on factor movement for managing the total portfolio risk. Therefore, we introduce new robust formulations that allow investors to control the factor exposure of portfolios. Empirical analysis shows that the robust portfolios from the proposed formulations are more robust than the classical mean–variance approach with comparable levels of exposure on fundamental factors.     

Portfolio selection under model uncertainty: a penalized moment-based optimization approach

We present a new approach that enables investors to seek a reasonably robust policy for portfolio selection in the presence of rare but high-impact realization of moment uncertainty. In practice, portfolio managers face difficulty in seeking a balance between relying on their knowledge of a reference financial model and taking into account possible ambiguity of the model. Based on the concept of Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), we introduce a new penalty framework that provides investors flexibility to define prior reference models using the distributional information of the first two moments and accounts for model ambiguity in terms of extreme moment uncertainty. We show that in our approach a globally-optimal portfolio can in general be obtained in a computationally tractable manner. We also show that for a wide range of specifications our proposed model can be recast as semidefinite programs. Computational experiments show that our penalized moment-based approach outperforms classical DRO approaches in terms of both average and downside-risk performance using historical data.     

Robust portfolio choice with CVaR and VaR under distribution and mean return ambiguity

We consider the problem of optimal portfolio choice using the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for a market consisting of n risky assets and a riskless asset and where short positions are allowed. When the distribution of returns of risky assets is unknown but the mean return vector and variance/covariance matrix of the risky assets are fixed, we derive the distributionally robust portfolio rules. Then, we address uncertainty (ambiguity) in the mean return vector in addition to distribution ambiguity, and derive the optimal portfolio rules when the uncertainty in the return vector is modeled via an ellipsoidal uncertainty set. In the presence of a riskless asset, the robust CVaR and VaR measures, coupled with a minimum mean return constraint, yield simple, mean-variance efficient optimal portfolio rules. In a market without the riskless asset, we obtain a closed-form portfolio rule that generalizes earlier results, without a minimum mean return restriction.     

Robust optimization and portfolio selection: The cost of robustness

Robust optimization is a tractable alternative to stochastic programming particularly suited for problems in which parameter values are unknown, variable and their distributions are uncertain. We evaluate the cost of robustness for the robust counterpart to the maximum return portfolio optimization problem. The uncertainty of asset returns is modelled by polyhedral uncertainty sets as opposed to the earlier proposed ellipsoidal sets. We derive the robust model from a min-regret perspective and examine the properties of robust models with respect to portfolio composition. We investigate the effect of different definitions of the bounds on the uncertainty sets and show that robust models yield well diversified portfolios, in terms of the number of assets and asset weights.     

What do robust equity portfolio models really do?

Most of previous work on robust equity portfolio optimization has focused on its formulation and performance. In contrast, in this paper we analyze the behavior of robust equity portfolios to determine whether reducing the sensitivity to input estimation errors is all robust models do and investigate any side-effects of robust formulations. Therefore, our focus is on the relationship between fundamental factors and robust models in order to determine if robust equity portfolios are consistently investing more in the factors opposed to individual asset movements. To do so, we perform regressions with factor returns to explain how robust portfolios behave compared to portfolios generated from the Markowitz’s mean-variance model. We find that robust equity portfolios consistently show higher correlation with the three fundamental factors used in the Fama-French factor model. Furthermore, more robustness among robust portfolios results in a higher correlation with the Fama-French three factors. In fact, we show that as equity portfolios under no constraints on portfolio weights become more robust, they consistently depend more on the market and large factors. These results show that robust models are betting on the fundamental factors instead of individual asset movements.     

An exact solution to a robust portfolio choice problem with multiple risk measures under ambiguous distribution

This paper proposes a unified framework to solve distributionally robust mean-risk optimization problem that simultaneously uses variance, value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a triple-risk measure. It provides investors with more flexibility to find portfolios in the sense that it allows investors to optimize a return-risk profile in the presence of estimation error. We derive a closed-form expression for the optimal portfolio strategy to the robust mean-multiple risk portfolio selection model under distribution and mean return ambiguity (RMP). Specially, the robust mean-variance, robust maximum return, robust minimum VaR and robust minimum CVaR efficient portfolios are all special instances of RMP portfolios. We analytically and numerically show that the resulting portfolio weight converges to the minimum variance portfolio when the level of ambiguity aversion is in a high value. Using numerical experiment with simulated data, we demonstrate that our robust portfolios under ambiguity are more stable over time than the non-robust portfolios.     

Empirical Bayes stock market portfolios

We exhibit a compound sequential Bayes portfolio selection algorithm based solely on the past which not only lives off market fluctuations but follows the drift as well. In fact, this sequential portfolio performs as well (up to first order terms in the exponent) as the optimal portfolio based on advance knowledge of the n-period empirical distribution of the market. Moreover, to first order in the exponent, the capital resulting from this portfolio will be no less than the best of the available stocks. This is a result that holds for every sample sequence. Thus bull markets and bear markets can not fool the investor into over-committing or under-committing his capital to the risky alternatives available to him. The goal is accomplished by a choice of portfolio which is robust with respect to futures that may differ drastically from the past.     

Robust ranking and portfolio optimization

The portfolio optimization problem has attracted researchers from many disciplines to resolve the issue of poor out-of-sample performance due to estimation errors in the expected returns. A practical method for portfolio construction is to use assets’ ordering information, expressed in the form of preferences over the stocks, instead of the exact expected returns. Due to the fact that the ranking itself is often described with uncertainty, we introduce a generic robust ranking model and apply it to portfolio optimization. In this problem, there are n objects whose ranking is in a discrete uncertainty set. We want to find a weight vector that maximizes some generic objective function for the worst realization of the ranking. This robust ranking problem is a mixed integer minimax problem and is very difficult to solve in general. To solve this robust ranking problem, we apply the constraint generation method, where constraints are efficiently generated by solving a network flow problem. For empirical tests, we use post-earnings-announcement drifts to obtain ranking uncertainty sets for the stocks in the DJIA index. We demonstrate that our robust portfolios produce smaller risk compared to their non-robust counterparts.     

Using medians in portfolio optimization

Some new portfolio optimization models are formulated by adopting the sample median instead of the sample mean as the investment efficiency measure. The median is a robust statistic, which is less affected by outliers than the mean, and in portfolio models this is particularly relevant as data are often characterized by attributes such as skewness, fat tails and jumps, which may strongly bias the mean estimate. As in mean/variance optimization, the portfolio problems are formulated as finding the optimal weights, for example, wealth allocation, which maximize the portfolio median, with risk constrained by some risk measure, respectively, the Value-at-Risk, the Conditional Value-at-Risk, the Mean Absolute Deviation and the Maximum Loss, for a whole of four different models. All these models are formulated as mixed integer linear programming problems, which, at least for moderate sized problems, are efficiently solved by standard software. Models are tested on real financial data, compared to some benchmark portfolios, and found to give good results in terms of realized profits. An important feature is greater portfolio diversification than that obtained with other portfolio models.     

Portfolio selection under distributional uncertainty: A relative robust CVaR approach

Robust optimization, one of the most popular topics in the field of optimization and control since the late 1990s, deals with an optimization problem involving uncertain parameters. In this paper, we consider the relative robust conditional value-at-risk portfolio selection problem where the underlying probability distribution of portfolio return is only known to belong to a certain set. Our approach not only takes into account the worst-case scenarios of the uncertain distribution, but also pays attention to the best possible decision with respect to each realization of the distribution. We also illustrate how to construct a robust portfolio with multiple experts (priors) by solving a sequence of linear programs or a second-order cone program.     

基于鲁棒二阶随机占优的投资组合优化模型研究

本文主要考虑一类经典的含有二阶随机占优约束的投资组合优化问题,其目标为最大化期望收益,同时利用二阶随机占优约束度量风险,满足期望收益二阶随机占优预定的参考目标收益。与传统的二阶随机占优投资组合优化模型不同,本文考虑不确定的投资收益率,并未知其精确的概率分布,但属于某一不确定集合,建立鲁棒二阶随机占优投资组合优化模型,借助鲁棒优化理论,推导出对应的鲁棒等价问题。最后,采用S&P 500股票市场的实际数据,对模型进行不同训练样本规模和不确定集合下的最优投资组合的权重、样本内和样本外不确定参数对期望收益的影响的分析。结果表明,投资收益率在最新的历史数据规模下得出的投资策略,能够获得较高的样本外期望收益,对未来投资更具参考意义。在保证样本内解的最优性的同时,也能取得较高的样本外期望收益和随机占优约束被满足的可行性。     

Robust portfolio selection involving options under a “ marginal+joint ” ellipsoidal uncertainty set

In typical robust portfolio selection problems, one mainly finds portfolios with the worst-case return under a given uncertainty set, in which asset returns can be realized. A too large uncertainty set will lead to a too conservative robust portfolio. However, if the given uncertainty set is not large enough, the realized returns of resulting portfolios will be outside of the uncertainty set when an extreme event such as market crash or a large shock of asset returns occurs. The goal of this paper is to propose robust portfolio selection models under so-called “ marginal+joint” ellipsoidal uncertainty set and to test the performance of the proposed models. A robust portfolio selection model under a “marginal + joint” ellipsoidal uncertainty set is proposed at first. The model has the advantages of models under the separable uncertainty set and the joint ellipsoidal uncertainty set, and relaxes the requirements on the uncertainty set. Then, one more robust portfolio selection model with option protection is presented by combining options into the proposed robust portfolio selection model. Convex programming approximations with second-order cone and linear matrix inequalities constraints to both models are derived. The proposed robust portfolio selection model with options can hedge risks and generates robust portfolios with well wealth growth rate when an extreme event occurs. Tests on real data of the Chinese stock market and simulated options confirm the property of both the models. Test results show that (1) under the “ marginal+joint” uncertainty set, the wealth growth rate and diversification of robust portfolios generated from the first proposed robust portfolio model (without options) are better and greater than those generated from Goldfarb and Iyengar’s model, and (2) the robust portfolio selection model with options outperforms the robust portfolio selection model without options when some extreme event occurs.     

Portfolio selection problems with Markowitz’s mean–variance framework: a review of literature

Since the pioneering work of Harry Markowitz, mean–variance portfolio selection model has been widely used in both theoretical and empirical studies, which maximizes the investment return under certain risk level or minimizes the investment risk under certain return level. In this paper, we review several variations or generalizations that substantially improve the performance of Markowitz’s mean–variance model, including dynamic portfolio optimization, portfolio optimization with practical factors, robust portfolio optimization and fuzzy portfolio optimization. The review provides a useful reference to handle portfolio selection problems for both researchers and practitioners. Some summaries about the current studies and future research directions are presented at the end of this paper.     

Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies

Robust portfolio modeling (RPM) [Liesiö, J., Mild, P., Salo, A., 2007. Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. European Journal of Operational Research 181, 1488–1505] supports project portfolio selection in the presence of multiple evaluation criteria and incomplete information. In this paper, we extend RPM to account for project interdependencies, incomplete cost information and variable budget levels. These extensions lead to a multi-objective zero-one linear programming problem with interval-valued objective function coefficients for which all non-dominated solutions are determined by a tailored algorithm. The extended RPM framework permits more comprehensive modeling of portfolio problems and provides support for advanced benefit–cost analyses. It retains the key features of RPM by providing robust project and portfolio recommendations and by identifying projects on which further attention should be focused. The extended framework is illustrated with an example on product release planning.     

证券投资组合优化问题的强健性的锥优化方法(英)

本文研究了具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题.模型以最差条件在值风险为风险度量方法,并且考虑了交易费用对收益的影响.当投资组合的收益率概率分布不能准确确定但是在有界的区间内,尤其是在箱型区间结构和椭球区域结构内时,我们可以把具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题的模型分别转化成线性规划和二阶锥规划形式.最后,我们用一个真实市场数据的算例来验证此方法.     

证券投资组合优化问题的强健性的锥优化方法(英文)

本文研究了具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题.模型以最差条件在值风险为风险度量方法,并且考虑了交易费用对收益的影响.当投资组合的收益率概率分布不能准确确定但是在有界的区间内,尤其是在箱型区间结构和椭球区域结构内时,我们可以把具有强健性的证券投资组合优化问题的模型分别转化成线性规划和二阶锥规划形式.最后,我们用一个真实市场数据的算例来验证此方法.     

工件具有任意尺寸的混合分批平行机排序问题的近似算法

本文考虑了工件具有任意尺寸且机器有容量限制的混合分批平行机排序问题。在该问题中, 一个待加工的工件集需在多台平行批处理机上进行加工。每个工件有它的加工时间和尺寸, 每台机器可以同时处理多个工件, 称为一个批, 只要这些工件尺寸之和不超过其容量; 一个批的加工时间等于该批中工件的最大加工时间和总加工时间的加权和; 目标函数是极小化最大完工时间。该问题包含一维装箱问题为其特殊情形, 为强NP-困难的。对此给出了一个$\left( {2 + 2\alpha+\alpha^{2}}\right)$-近似算法, 其中$\alpha$为给定的权重参数, 满足考虑了不同于Goldfarb和Iyengar （2003）的因子模型,通过横截面回归分析以及Fama-MacBeth估计构造了关于资产的平均收益向量和协方差矩阵的不确定性集合（置信区域）。基于这些不确定性集合以及Markowitz“均值-方差模型”的鲁棒投资组合问题,提出了多个鲁棒投资组合问题,并对应的推导出其等价的半正定规划形式,使得问题可以在多项式时间内求解。