A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Decision Parameters in a Replacement Inventory System

This paper deals with the estimation of decision parameters in a special class of inventory systems in which the rate of stock depletion depends on the internal operations of the parent organization instead of market demands. Stocking decisions for this type of inventory systems are unique in that demands for the stocked items are internal demands, sporadic in some instances, infrequent in others, and almost never the direct results of conscious economic decisions. To cope with the peculiar situation, Bayesian point and interval estimation procedures are used. The estimated probability measures provide a basis on which stocking decisions pertinent to this type of inventory systems can be made or evaluated. Specific statistical postulates are made, and a numerical example is given for illustration. The possibility of applying the estimated results to one of the existing inventory models is briefly discussed at the end.     

双向替代产品库存模型研究

运用最优控制理论和数理经济学方法研究了供应链管理时代下广泛存在的双向替代产品的最优库存问题,建立了利润最大化前提下的双向替代品的库存模型,证明了该问题解的存在性,并给出了求解最优订货量的方法步骤,可为实施有效的库存管理、降低企业的物流成本提供借鉴.     

Estimating Second-Order Characteristics of Inhomogeneous Spatio-Temporal Point Processes

Non-parametric estimates of the K-function and the pair correlation function play a fundamental role for exploratory and explanatory analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal point patterns. These estimates usually require information from outside of the study region, resulting to the so-called edge effects which have to be corrected. They also depend on first-order characteristics, which have to be estimated in practice. In this paper, we extend classical edge correction methods to the spatio-temporal setting and compare the performance of the related estimators for stationary/non-stationary and/or isotropic/anisotropic point patterns. Further, we explore the influence of the estimated intensity function on these estimators.     

On a Discrete-in-Time Order-Level Inventory Model for Deteriorating Items

An Order-Level inventory model continuous in units and discrete in time is developed for deteriorating items. The model is developed under deterministic demand and instantaneous delivery. Deterioration is assumed to be a constant fraction of the onhand inventory. An example is given to illustrate the model.     

On Time-Reversibility and Estimating Functions for Markov Processes

The time-reversibility of a Markov process implies a particular structure of the score function. It is explored which martingale estimating functions and other unbiased estimating functions have a similar structure. This leads to an estimating function with a semiparametric efficiency property. Also relations to martingale estimating functions based on eigenfunctions of the infinitesimal generator are found.     

网络直销模式下含有管理复原退货物流的库存问题研究

本文采用定期库存控制策略研究了需求服从均匀分布、订货周期与再制造周期不相等情况下的含有管理复原退货物流的库存问题。在考虑退货价格对需求的影响的情况下，本文建立了以使期望利润最大化为目标，对退货价格、订货量、订货周期和再制造周期进行同时进行决策的库存模型。本文通过数值算例分析了退货价格对需求的影响因子的大小以及退货率的大小分别对利润、最优退货价、最优订货量、最优订货周期和最优退货处理周期的影响。结果指出，商家在制订库存策略时应该考虑退货价对需求的影响，并且应首先确定退货率和退货价对需求影响因子的大小。     

Estimating Some Characteristics of the Conditional Distribution in Nonparametric Functional Models

This paper deals with a scalar response conditioned by a functional random variable. The main goal is to estimate nonparametrically some characteristics of this conditional distribution. Kernel type estimators for the conditional cumulative distribution function and the successive derivatives of the conditional density are introduced. Asymptotic properties are stated for each of these estimates, and they are applied to the estimations of the conditional mode and conditional quantiles. Our asymptotic results highlightes the importance of the concentration properties on small balls of the probability measure of the underlying functional variable. So, a special section is devoted to show how our results behave in several situations when the functional variable is a continuous time process, with special attention to diffusion processes and Gaussian processes. Even if the main purpose of our paper is theoretical, an application to some chemiometrical data set coming from food industry is presented in a short final section. This example illustrates the easy implementation of our method as well as its good behaviour for finite sample sizes.     

On Estimating the Cumulant Generating Function of Linear Processes

We compare two estimates of the cumulant generating function of a stationary linear process. The first estimate is based on the empirical moment generating function. The second estimate uses the linear representation of the process and the empirical moment generating function of the innovations. Asymptotic expressions for the mean square errors are derived under short- and long-range dependence. For long-memory processes, the estimate based on the linear representation turns out to have a better rate of convergence. Thus, exploiting the linear structure of the process leads to an infinite gain in asymptotic efficiency.     

On Estimating the Asymptotic Variance of Stationary Point Processes

We investigate a class of kernel estimators $\widehat{\sigma}^2_n$ of the asymptotic variance σ ² of a d-dimensional stationary point process $\Psi = \sum_{i\ge 1}\delta_{X_i}$ which can be observed in a cubic sampling window $W_n = [-n,n]^d\,$ . σ ² is defined by the asymptotic relation $Var(\Psi(W_n)) \sim \sigma^2 \,(2n)^d$ (as n →? ∞) and its existence is guaranteed whenever the corresponding reduced covariance measure $\gamma^{(2)}_{red}(\cdot)$ has finite total variation. Depending on the rate of decay (polynomially or exponentially) of the total variation of $\gamma^{(2)}_{red}(\cdot)$ outside of an expanding ball centered at the origin, we determine optimal bandwidths b _n (up to a constant) minimizing the mean squared error of $\widehat{\sigma}^2_n$ . The case when $\gamma^{(2)}_{red}(\cdot)$ has bounded support is of particular interest. Further we suggest an isotropised estimator $\widetilde{\sigma}^2_n$ suitable for motion-invariant point processes and compare its properties with $\widehat{\sigma}^2_n$ . Our theoretical results are illustrated and supported by a simulation study which compares the (relative) mean squared errors of $\widehat{\sigma}^2_n$ for planar Poisson, Poisson cluster, and hard-core point processes and for various values of n b _n .     

On the Effect of Product Variety in Production–Inventory Systems

In this paper, we examine the effect of product variety on inventory costs in a production–inventory system with finite capacity where products are made to stock and share the same manufacturing facility. The facility incurs a setup time whenever it switches from producing one product type to another. The production facility has a finite production rate and stochastic production times. In order to mitigate the effect of setups, products are produced in batches. In contrast to inventory systems with exogenous lead times, we show that inventory costs increase almost linearly in the number of products. More importantly, we show that the rate of increase is sensitive to system parameters including demand and process variability, demand and capacity levels, and setup times. The effect of these parameters can be counterintuitive. For example, we show that the relative increase in cost due to higher product variety is decreasing in demand and process variability. We also show that it is decreasing in expected production time. On the other hand, we find that the relative cost is increasing in expected setup time, setup time variability and aggregate demand rate. Furthermore, we show that the effect of product variety on optimal base stock levels is not monotonic. We use the model to draw several managerial insights regarding the value of variety-reducing strategies such as product consolidation and delayed differentiation.     

基于合作博弈的预付条件下应急物资库存策略

应急物资储备是应急管理的主要工作之一.以往政府自己组织物资储备,不仅耗费大量人力、物力,且由于应急物资具有有效期等缘故,报废损失较大.本文考虑政府与供应商合作进行应急物资的实物储备,讨论在政府提前支付部分货款、供应商储备应急物资的库存策略,并从合作博弈的角度,确立了联盟的合作期限与政府提前支付货款比例,实现了在减少政府支出的前提下,动态存储定量应急物资,大幅度延长有效期的目标.最后使用算例验证了该策略的有效性.     

基于存货质押的库存管理研究

针对基于存货质押的库存管理问题进行分析并构建模型,从还贷和不还贷两个角度,研究模型的最佳订货批量和质押量.模型以利润函数为目标函数,利润函数包括了销售额、缺货损失、剩余品价值、产品成本以及贷款本息和.通过对利润函数进行求解,得出最佳订购批量、存货质押量和最大期望利润,最后根据利润的大小决定是否偿还贷款.     

关于区间估计与假设检验的最优性

本文首先提出了区间估计的另一个优良性因素——虚假度 ,进而建立或疏理了区间估计与假设检验的优良性、最优性概念 ,然后给出了区间估计与假设检验最优性的关系     

具有Weibull生存死亡特征的冷链品库存补货定价策略研究

建立了无限期内冷链品具有Weibull生存死亡特征、随机需求且受售价影响的库存补货定价模型,其中售价是连续变化的,需求率是售价的指数函数,变质率服从的三参数Weibull分布,提前期固定。系统以利润最大化为目标函数,在(r,Q)库存策略下,建立库存模型,采用直接法,对模型近似求解,得到最优补货定价策略。利用Matlab进行算例模拟和灵敏度分析发现:补货提前期和单位仓储成本对补货定价策略影响较大,二者增大会导致系统利润降低;单位处理成本的增加,在一定程度上使得系统降低最优补货量,使系统利润增加;保鲜期固定的前提下,受冷链品的流动环境因子和存储环境因子影响的变质率对补货定价策略影响较大,它的增大会使系统利润降低。这些发现能够帮助优化系统模型,对现实问题具有一定的指导意义。     

基于多品种的存货质押库存管理模型

通过质押某种商品,获得资金来采购其他商品,从而优化企业商品持有情况.通过对随机需求环境下的企业收益进行分析,构建多品种的存货质押库存管理模型,确定每种商品质押量和采购量.研究表明:商品利润越小、需求均值越小的商品,需要持有的商品量越小;通过质押该种商品来采购利润更大、需求更大的商品,从而增加企业利润.     

替代产品的动态库存决策与控制

考虑了替代产品的动态库存决策与控制问题,建立了替代产品的多周期动态库存决策与控制模型.得到了目标函数的一些重要性质,给出了系统最优参数的求解算法,利用动态规划方法对系统的库存参数进行了优化求解.