Maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate linear functional relationship

Many authors have discussed maximum likelihood estimation in the simple linear functional relationship model. In this paper, we derive maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for parameters in a much more general model. Several special cases including the multivariate linear functional relationship model are discussed. Estimators of some of the parameters are shown to be inconsistent.     

The estimation of a multivariate linear relation

A multivariate linear relation η_n = β₀ξ_n is considered, in which ξ_n and η_n are observed subject to white noise errors, with covariance matrices σ₀, ω₀ respectively. If their elements lie in the null space of a suitable vector function, β₀, σ₀, ω₀ may be uniquely defined by second-order functions of the data. The asymptotic properties of estimates of β₀, σ₀, ω₀ are established under relatively mild conditions. We explore the possibility that explicit formulas for consistent estimates of β₀, σ₀, ω₀ may be available.     

Statistical estimation of a mixture of Gaussian distributions

The paper is devoted to the problem of statistical estimation of a multivariate distribution density, which is a discrete mixture of Gaussian distributions. A heuristic approach is considered, based on the use of the EM algorithm and nonparametric density estimation with a sequential increase in the number of components of the mixture. Criteria for testing of model adequacy are discussed.     

Efficiencies of tests and estimators forp-order autoregressive processes when the error distribution is nonnormal

Summary We considerpth order autoregressive time series where the shocks need not be normal. By employing the concept of contiguity, we obtain the sysmptotic power for tests of hypothesis concerning the autoregressive parameters. Our approach allows consideration of the double exponential and other thicker-tailed distributions for the shocks. We derive a new result in the contiguity framework that leads directly to an expression for the Pitman efficiencies of tests as well as estimators. The numerical values of the efficiencies suggest a lack of robustness for the normal theory least squares estimators when the shock distribution is thick tailed or an outlier prone mixed normal. An important alternative test statistic is proposed that competes with the normal theory tests. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research under Grant No. N00014-78-C-0722 and by the Army Research Office.     

Parametric estimation of a bivariate stable Lévy process

We propose a parametric model for a bivariate stable Lévy process based on a Lévy copula as a dependence model. We estimate the parameters of the full bivariate model by maximum likelihood estimation. As an observation scheme we assume that we observe all jumps larger than some ε>0 and base our statistical analysis on the resulting compound Poisson process. We derive the Fisher information matrix and prove asymptotic normality of all estimates when the truncation point ε→0. A simulation study investigates the loss of efficiency because of the truncation.     

Fiducial inference on the largest mean of a multivariate normal distribution

Inference on the largest mean of a multivariate normal distribution is a surprisingly difficult and unexplored topic. Difficulties arise when two or more of the means are simultaneously the largest mean. Our proposed solution is based on an extension of R.A. Fisher’s fiducial inference methods termed generalized fiducial inference. We use a model selection technique along with the generalized fiducial distribution to allow for equal largest means and alleviate the overestimation that commonly occurs. Our proposed confidence intervals for the largest mean have asymptotically correct frequentist coverage and simulation results suggest that they possess promising small sample empirical properties. In addition to the theoretical calculations and simulations we also applied this approach to the air quality index of the four largest cities in the northeastern United States (Baltimore, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia).     

On the unlinking conjecture of independent polynomial functions

The celebrated U-conjecture states that under the N_n(0,I_n) distribution of the random vector X=(X₁,…,X_n) in Rⁿ, two polynomials P(X) and Q(X) are unlinkable if they are independent [see Kagan et al., Characterization Problems in Mathematical Statistics, Wiley, New York, 1973]. Some results have been established in this direction, although the original conjecture is yet to be proved in generality. Here, we demonstrate that the conjecture is true in an important special case of the above, where P and Q are convex nonnegative polynomials with P(0)=0.     

On an additive decomposition of the BLUE in a multiple-partitioned linear model

Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the BLUE in a general multiple-partitioned linear model to be the sum of the BLUEs under the k small models , …, . Some consequences and further research topics are also given.     

Parametric estimation for a simple branching diffusion process

A simple branching diffusion process is given as an elementary model of spatial evolution. A parametric estimation theory is presented for this model. As side results, a spatial central limit theorem and spatial strong law of large numbers are also obtained.     

UMVU estimation of the ratio of powers of normal generalized variances under correlation

We consider estimation of the ratio of arbitrary powers of two normal generalized variances based on two correlated random samples. First, the result of Iliopoulos [Decision theoretic estimation of the ratio of variances in a bivariate normal distribution, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 53 (2001) 436-446] on UMVU estimation of the ratio of variances in a bivariate normal distribution is extended to the case of the ratio of any powers of the two variances. Motivated by these estimators’ forms we derive the UMVU estimator in the multivariate case. We show that it is proportional to the ratio of the corresponding powers of the two sample generalized variances multiplied by a function of the sample canonical correlations. The mean squared errors of the derived UMVU estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator are compared via simulation for some special cases.     

Estimates of MM type for the multivariate linear model

We propose a class of robust estimates for multivariate linear models. Based on the approach of MM-estimation (Yohai 1987, [24]), we estimate the regression coefficients and the covariance matrix of the errors simultaneously. These estimates have both a high breakdown point and high asymptotic efficiency under Gaussian errors. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality assuming errors with an elliptical distribution. We describe an iterative algorithm for the numerical calculation of these estimates. The advantages of the proposed estimates over their competitors are demonstrated through both simulated and real data.     

On improved estimation of normal precision matrix and discriminant coefficients

The problem of estimating the precision matrix of a multivariate normal distribution model is considered with respect to a quadratic loss function. A number of covariance estimators originally intended for a variety of loss functions are adapted so as to obtain alternative estimators of the precision matrix. It is shown that the alternative estimators have analytically smaller risks than the unbiased estimator of the precision matrix. Through numerical studies of risk values, it is shown that the new estimators have substantial reduction in risk. In addition, we consider the problem of the estimation of discriminant coefficients, which arises in linear discriminant analysis when Fisher's linear discriminant function is viewed as the posterior log-odds under the assumption that two classes differ in mean but have a common covariance matrix. The above method is also adapted for this problem in order to obtain improved estimators of the discriminant coefficients under the quadratic loss function. Furthermore, a numerical study is undertaken to compare the properties of a collection of alternatives to the “unbiased” estimator of the discriminant coefficients.     

Minimax estimation of location parameters for certain spherically symmetric distributions

Families of minimax estimators are found for the location parameters of a p-variate distribution of the form

, where G(·) is a known c.d.f. on (0, ∞), p ≥ 3 and the loss is sum of squared errors. The estimators are of the form $\text{(1 ? ar(X′X)}\text{E}{}_0\text{(}\text{1}\text{X′X}\text{)X′X)X}$ where 0 ≤ a ≤ 2, r(X′X) is nondecreasing, and $\text{r(X′X)}\text{X′X}$ is nonincreasing. Generalized Bayes minimax estimators are found for certain G(·)'s.     

On the minimization of multinomial tails and the Gupta-Nagel conjecture

This paper is primarily concerned with the open problem of minimizing the lower tail of the multinomial distribution. During the study of that specific problem, we have developed an approach which reveals itself useful for solving a general class of problems involving multinomial probabilities. Concerning the main problem, we provide a self-contained proof that the minimum of the multinomial lower tail is reached, as conjectured by Gupta and Nagel (Sankhya Ser. B 29 (1967) 1) (within the framework of subset-selection problems) at the equal probability configuration, i.e., when the cell probabilities are equal to one another. We also point out some novel inequalities and general properties involving multinomial probabilities and multinomial coefficients.     

Nonnegative quadratic estimation of the mean squared errors of minimax estimators in the linear regression model

In this paper, the problem of nonnegative quadratic estimation of the mean squared errors of minimax estimators of in the linear regression modelE(y)=X, VAR(y) = ² is discussed. An explicit formula for the admissible nonnegative minimum biased estimator is given. Some applications to one-way classification model are also considered.     

Relative efficiencies of estimates using patterned covariances or correlations in the multivariate normal estimation problem

Summary The relative efficiency of maximum likelihood estimates is studied when taking advantage of underlying linear patterns in the covariances or correlations when estimating covariance matrices. We compare the variances of estimates of the covariance matrix obtained under two nested patterns with the assumption that the more restricted pattern is the true state. Formulas for the asymptotic variances are given which are exact for linear covariance patterns when explicit maximum likelihood estimates exist. Several specific examples are given using complete symmetry, circular symmetry and general covariance patterns as well as an example involving a covariance matrix with a linear pattern in the correlations.     

On the distribution of the ratio of the largest eigenvalue to the trace of a Wishart matrix

The ratio of the largest eigenvalue divided by the trace of a p×p random Wishart matrix with n degrees of freedom and an identity covariance matrix plays an important role in various hypothesis testing problems, both in statistics and in signal processing. In this paper we derive an approximate explicit expression for the distribution of this ratio, by considering the joint limit as both p,n→∞ with p/n→c. Our analysis reveals that even though asymptotically in this limit the ratio follows a Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution, one of the leading error terms depends on the second derivative of the TW distribution, and is non-negligible for practical values of p, in particular for determining tail probabilities. We thus propose to explicitly include this term in the approximate distribution for the ratio. We illustrate empirically using simulations that adding this term to the TW distribution yields a quite accurate expression to the empirical distribution of the ratio, even for small values of p,n.     

Improving on the maximum likelihood estimators of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models

In this article we study the simultaneous estimation of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models. We derive some classes of estimators which improve on the maximum likelihood estimator under the normalized squared losses. Our estimators are based on the argument in Chou [Simultaneous estimation in discrete multivariate exponential families, Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 314-328.] and shrink the maximum likelihood estimator depending on the marginal frequencies of variables forming a complete subgraph of the conditional independence graph.