Maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate linear functional relationship

Many authors have discussed maximum likelihood estimation in the simple linear functional relationship model. In this paper, we derive maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for parameters in a much more general model. Several special cases including the multivariate linear functional relationship model are discussed. Estimators of some of the parameters are shown to be inconsistent.     

Improving on the maximum likelihood estimators of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models

In this article we study the simultaneous estimation of the means in Poisson decomposable graphical models. We derive some classes of estimators which improve on the maximum likelihood estimator under the normalized squared losses. Our estimators are based on the argument in Chou [Simultaneous estimation in discrete multivariate exponential families, Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 314-328.] and shrink the maximum likelihood estimator depending on the marginal frequencies of variables forming a complete subgraph of the conditional independence graph.     

A third-order optimum property of the maximum likelihood estimator

Let θ⁽ⁿ⁾ denote the maximum likelihood estimator of a vector parameter, based on an i.i.d. sample of size n. The class of estimators θ⁽ⁿ⁾ + n^?1q(θ⁽ⁿ⁾), with q running through a class of sufficiently smooth functions, is essentially complete in the following sense: For any estimator T⁽ⁿ⁾ there exists q such that the risk of θ⁽ⁿ⁾ + n^?1q(θ⁽ⁿ⁾) exceeds the risk of T⁽ⁿ⁾ by an amount of order o(n^?1) at most, simultaneously for all loss functions which are bounded, symmetric, and neg-unimodal. If $\text{q}{}^1$ is chosen such that $\text{θ}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}\text{+ n}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{q}{}^1\text{(θ}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}\text{)}$ is unbiased up to $\text{o(n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{)}$, then this estimator minimizes the risk up to an amount of order o(n^?1) in the class of all estimators which are unbiased up to $\text{o(n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{)}$.The results are obtained under the assumption that T⁽ⁿ⁾ admits a stochastic expansion, and that either the distributions have—roughly speaking—densities with respect to the lebesgue measure, or the loss functions are sufficiently smooth.     

Addendum to “a third-order optimum property of the maximum likelihood estimator”

A third-order optimum property of the maximum likelihood estimator is extended to not necessarily symmetric loss functions under an appropriate restriction on the class of competing estimators.     

Empirical likelihood confidence region for parameter in the errors-in-variables models

This paper proposes a constrained empirical likelihood confidence region for a parameter β₀ in the linear errors-in-variables model: Y_i=x_i^τβ₀+ε_i,X_i=x_i+u_i,(1?i?n), which is constructed by combining the score function corresponding to the squared orthogonal distance with a constrained region of β₀. It is shown that the coverage error of the confidence region is of order n⁻¹, and Bartlett corrections can reduce the coverage errors to n⁻². An empirical Bartlett correction is given for practical implementation. Simulations show that the proposed confidence region has satisfactory coverage not only for large samples, but also for small to medium samples.     

Linear relations in time series models. II

In this paper an asymptotic theory is developed for a new time series model which was introduced in a previous paper [5]. An algorithm for computing estimates of the parameters of this time series model is given, and it is shown that these estimators are asymptotically efficient in the sense that they have the same asymptotic distribution as the maximum likelihood estimators.     

Bayes estimation in linear models: A coordinate-free approach

The unified theory of Bayes estimation in linear models is presented, using a coordinate-free approach. The results are applied to the problem of linear and quadratic estimation in linear regression model.     

On the Maximum Likelihood estimation of a linear structural relationship when the intercept is known

This paper considers the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation of the five parameters of a linear structural relationship y = α + βx when α is known. The parameters are β, the two variances of observation errors on x and y, the mean and variance of x. When the ML estimates of the parameters cannot be obtained by solving a simple simultaneous system of five equations, they are found by maximizing the likelihood function directly. Some asymptotic properties of the estimates are also obtained.     

On the estimation of nonlinear time series models

In the present paper, a framework for parametric estimation in nonlinear time series is developed. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of minimum Hellinger distance estimates for a determined class of nonlinear models are investigated. The main Interest for these estimates is motivated by their robustness under perturbations as it has been emphazized in Beran [2]. The first part of the paper is devoted to the study of some probabilistic properties which ensure the existence and the optimal properties of the estimates     

A note on Sheppard's corrections for grouping and maximum likelihood estimation

Sheppard's corrections for grouping can, in the case of an underlying normal distribution, be interpreted as a first step to the solution of the maximum likelihood equations which incorporate the grouping problem. This result of Lindley (for the univariate) and Haitovsky (for the bivariate) is generalized to the multivariate normal distribution, making use of recent results in matrix algebra. Also, formulae concerning the efficiency lost in grouping are generalized to the multivariate case.     

An asymptotic expansion for the distribution of asymptotic maximum likelihood estimators of vector parameters

It is shown that the probability that a suitably standardized asymptotic maximum likelihood estimator of a vector parameter (i.e., an estimator which approximates the solution of the likelihood equation in a reasonably good way) lies in a measurable convex set can be approximated by an integral involving a multidimensional normal density function and a series in $\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$ with certain polynomials as coefficients.     

A note on the monotone functional interpretation

We prove a result relating the author's monotone functional interpretation to the bounded functional interpretation due to Ferreira and Oliva. More precisely we show that (over model of majorizable functionals) largely a solution for the bounded interpretation also is a solution for the monotone functional interpretation although the latter uses the existence of an underlying precise witness. This makes it possible to focus on the extraction of bounds (as in the bounded interpretation) while using the conceptual benefit of having precise realizers at the same time without having to construct them.     

On the use of the directional derivative in obtaining multivariate extreme values

Current use of the directional derivative appears, with notable exceptions such as Whittle (1971, 1973) and Vainberg (1973), to be limited largely to textbooks on advanced calculus, and to spaces of at most three dimensions. The present paper develops a calculus of the directional derivative for arbitrary finite dimensional vector spaces. Applications are made to classical maximum likelihood estimation in the case of the multivariate normal density and to other multivariate problems involving stationary points.     

Weak consistency of least-squares estimators in linear models

Let Y_n, n≥1, be a sequence of integrable random variables with EY_n = x_n1β₁ + x_n2β₂ + … + x_npβ_p, where the x_ij's are known and β^T = (β₁, β₂,…, β_p) unknown. Let b_n be the least-squares estimator of β based on Y₁, Y₂,…, Y_n. Weak consistency of b_n, n≥1, has been considered in the literature under the assumption that each Y_n is square integrable. In this paper, we study weak consistency of b_n, n≥1, and associated rates of convergence under the minimal assumption that each Y_n is integrable.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimator for the growth rate for a jump-type CIR process based on continuous time observations

We consider a jump-type Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) process driven by a standard Wiener process and a subordinator, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate. We distinguish three cases: subcritical, critical and supercritical. In the subcritical case we prove weak consistency and asymptotic normality, and, under an additional moment assumption, strong consistency as well. In the supercritical case, we prove strong consistency and mixed normal (but non-normal) asymptotic behavior, while in the critical case, weak consistency and non-standard asymptotic behavior are described. We specialize our results to so-called basic affine jump–diffusions as well. Concerning the asymptotic behavior of the MLE in the supercritical case, we derive a stochastic representation of the limiting mixed normal distribution, where the almost sure limit of an appropriately scaled jump-type supercritical CIR process comes into play. This is a new phenomenon, compared to the critical case, where a diffusion-type critical CIR process plays a role.     

An iterative method based on a modified Lagrangian functional for finding a saddle point in the semicoercive Signorini problem

The iterative Uzawa method with a modified Lagrangian functional is examined in the framework of the Signorini problem.     

Dependence Relations Among the Shifts of a Multivariate Refinable Distribution

Refinable functions are an intrinsic part of subdivision schemes and wavelet constructions. The relevant properties of such functions must usually be determined from their refinement masks. In this paper, we provide a characterization of linear independence for the shifts of a multivariate refinable vector of distributions in terms of its (finitely supported) refinement mask. March 14, 1998. Dates revised: February 3, 1999 and August 6, 1999. Date accepted: November 16, 1999.     

基于一维搜索的ICA自适应算法及其在股票分析中的应用

在固定步长的ICA极大似然估计自适应算法的基础上,通过一维搜索引入了步长修正方案,使新算法可在收敛速度和稳定状态时的失调误差这两个性能指标上达到最佳结合点,具有较好的时变系统跟踪能力。仿真结果证实了本文所提出的算法可以有效地提高ICA的自适应性,能够更准确地完成盲源分离。在此基础上将算法用在时变性很强的股票数据上,以验证该算法的有效性和可行性。     

有效矩估计在中国股票市场的应用研究

对期权定价模型的一类拓展模型-随机波动率(SV)模型,由于模型中存在不可观测的随机波动因素,并且其精确似然函数很难得到,于是提出了一种基于标的资产价格历史数据的有效矩估计(EMM)方法,此方法是把观测数据映射到简化的辅助模型GARCH(1,1)上,并计算辅助模型得分用以建立矩条件,实现SV模型参数的有效估计.利用这一方法对中国股市进行了波动分析,得出了较好的结果.     

Nonlinear waves in two-dimensions generated by variable pressure acting on the free surface of a heavy liquid

The development of nonlinear waves on the free surface of a heavy liquid initially at rest is treated analytically in cases where the external pressure force of limited power is distributed over a large area in the free surface but is otherwise arbitrary. In [1] approximate (up to small terms of higher order) solution of the problem is obtained in the form of functional series. In the present article the convergence theorems for the series are proved. When the pressure varies with time sinusoidally, the sums of the series are found in closed form. By passing to the limit in the solution as time goes to infinity, the form of the nonlinear steady-state wave is found. According to the solution, when the steady-state wave gets away from the variable pressure zone, a long chain of structures develops similar to so called Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. The existence of nonlinear standing waves is discovered, which have a finite number of nodes in the free surface infinite in extent, and the frequency spectrum and the form of these waves are found explicitly.