非线性组合动态传播率模型与我国COVID-19疫情分析和预测

针对传统的流行性传染病学中基本传染数R0难以准确估计以及单一模型预测精度低的缺陷,利用组合动态传播率替换基本传染数R0,提出基于支持向量回归的非线性时变传播率模型并对我国COVID-19疫情进行分析和预测.首先,计算动态传播率的离散值;其次,使用多项式函数、指数函数、双曲函数和幂函数分别对动态传播率的离散值进行拟合并基...     

具有常数输入的SEIS模型的全局渐近稳定性

讨论一类具有常数输入且传染率为非线性的SEIS流行病传播数学模型,给出了决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的基本再生数R0.当R0<1时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定;当R0>1时,利用第二加性复合矩阵证明了惟一地方病平衡点全局渐近稳定.     

具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率SIR流行病模型全局稳定性

研究一类具有预防接种免疫力的双线性传染率 SIR流行病模型全局稳定性 ,找到了决定疾病灭绝和持续生存的阈值——基本再生数 R0 .当 R0 ≤ 1时 ,仅存在无病平衡态 E0 ;当 R0 >1时 ,存在唯一的地方病平衡态 E* 和无病平衡态 E0 .利用 Hurwitz判据及 Liapunov-Lasalle不变集原理可以得知 :当 R0 <1时 ,无病平衡态 E0 全局渐近稳定 ;当 R0 >1时 ,地方病平衡态 E*全局渐近稳定 ,无病平衡态 E0 不稳定 ;当 R0 =1时 ,计算机数值模拟结果显示 ,无病平衡态 E0 有可能是稳定的     

一类具有垂直传染和预防接种的SEIR传染病模型的定性分析

建立并分析了一类对出生时没有被染病母体垂直传染的染病者的新生儿进行免疫接种的SEIR传染病模型.得到了疾病是否灭绝的阈值R0,当R0<1时,无病平衡点全局渐近稳定的.当R0>1时,地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定的,且疾病一致持续生存.     

宿主具有垂直传染的查加斯病模型的建立与分析

查加斯病是由克氏锥虫寄生引起的,其传播媒介为锥蝽.带有病原体的锥蝽叮咬健康人是其主要的传播途径,本病也可以通过输血、母婴进行传播.建立了宿主具有垂直传染、不同的传染源采用不同传染率的查加斯病模型并进行了动力学性态分析.通过分析,给出了基本再生数R_0;当垂直传染率p=0时,若R_0<1,系统仅存在无病平衡点且局部渐近稳定,意味着疾病消亡;当R_0>1时,系统存在一个正平衡点且局部渐近稳定;当0相似文献   

具有周期传染率和垂直传染的SIR传染病模型的周期解

考虑具有周期传染率和垂直传染的S IR流行病模型,分析了该模型的动力学性态.对小振幅的周期垂直传染率模型,给出了模型周期解的近似表达式,证明了该周期解的稳定性,并做了数值模拟,显示出周期解可能是全局稳定的.     

高校应用数学学报第21卷(2006年)B辑(英文版)第1期目次和提要

一类具有常恢复率且总人口变化SEIS传染病模型的稳定性陈军杰(浙江大学数学系)研究一类接触数依赖于总人数且含潜伏期传染的SEIS传染病模型,得到了阈值参数的表达式.在双线性传染率和标准传染率两种特殊情形下,给出了地方病平衡点全局稳定的充分条件.对于不含潜伏期传染的相应模型(上述模型的特别情形),在双线性传染率和标准传染率两种情形下证明了阈值大于1时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,推广和改进了已有的相应结果.医疗保险索赔数据的广义Pareto分布拟合欧阳资生谢赤(湖南大学工商管理学院)在广义Pareto分布模型中,怎么选取合适的门限…     

一类具有非线性传染率的SEIS传染病模型的稳定性分析

研究了一类具有非线性传染率的SEIS模型,模型中包含常数输入率、自然死亡率、因病死亡率等.定义了模型的基本再生数R_0,并证明了当R_01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.当R_01时,得到了唯一的地方平衡点是全局渐近稳定的条件.     

潜伏期具传染力SEIS模型正平衡点的全局稳定性

研究了一类潜伏期、染病期均具传染力且有不同饱和接触率C_1(N)和C_2(N)的SEIS传染病模型,得到了判断疾病流行与否的基本再生数R_0.利用周期轨道轨道稳定性和Poincare-Bendixson性质理论,证明了当R_0>1时,正平衡点P~*在T内全局渐近稳定,疾病流行形成地方病.     

具有常数迁入率和非线性传染率βI~pS~q的SI模型分析

对一种具有种群动力和非线性传染率的传染病模型进行了研究,建立了具有常数迁入率和非线性传染率βI~pS~q的SI模型.与以往的具有非线性传染率的传染病模型相比,这种模型引入了种群动力,也就是种群的总数不再为常数,因此,该类模型更精确地描述了传染病传播的规律.还讨论了模型的正不变集,运用微分方程稳定性理论分析了模型平衡点的存在性及稳定性,得出了疾病消除平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局渐进稳定的充分条件.进一步的,得出了在某些参数范围内会出现Hopf分支现象,并对上述模型进行了生物学讨论.     

一类具有Logistic增长和病程的SIR模型

研究具有Logistic增长和病程的SIR流行病模型.运用微分、积分方程理论,得到再生数R0<1时,无病平衡点E0是全局渐近稳定的;而当R0>1时,地方病平衡点E*是局部渐近稳定的.     

一类带时滞的SIR传染病模型的稳定性

研究了一类带时滞的SIR传染病模型,利用多项式判别系统研究了无病平衡点的全时滞稳定性,利用超越函数零点判别法研究了正平衡点的局部渐近稳定性.     

A time-periodic reaction–diffusion epidemic model with infection period

In this paper, we propose a time-periodic and diffusive SIR epidemic model with constant infection period. By introducing the basic reproduction number \({\mathcal{R}_0}\) via a next generation operator for this model, we show that the disease goes extinction if \({\mathcal{R}_0 < 1}\) ; while the disease is uniformly persistent if \({\mathcal{R}_0 > 1}\).     

Dynamics of SIR epidemic models with horizontal and vertical transmissions and constant treatment rates

We investigate the dynamics and bifurcations of SIR epidemic model with horizontal and vertical transmissions and constant treatment rates. It is proved that such SIR epidemic model have up to two positive epidemic equilibria and has no positive disease-free equilibria. We find all the ranges of the parameters involved in the model under which the equilibria of the model are positive. By using the qualitative theory of planar systems and the normal form theory, the phase portraits of each equilibria are obtained. We show that the equilibria of the epidemic system can be saddles, stable nodes, stable or unstable focuses, weak centers or cusps. We prove that the system has the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations, which exhibit saddle-node bifurcations, Hopf bifurcations and homoclinic bifurcations.     

Stability analysis and approximate solution of SIR epidemic model with Crowley-Martin type functional response and Holling type-II treatment rate by using homotopy analysis method

In this paper, SIR epidemic model with Crowley-Martin type functional response and Holling type-II treatment rate is investigated. The analysis of the model shows that it has two equilibria, namely disease-free and endemic. We investigate the existence and stability results of equilibria by using LaSalle''s invariant principle and Lyapunov function. $\mathfrak{R}_{0}$ has been found to ensure the extinction or persistence of the infection. Furthermore, homotopy analysis method is employed to obtain the series solution of the proposed model. By using the homotopy solutions, firstly, several $\hbar$-curves are plotted to demonstrate the regions of convergence, then the residual and square residual errors are obtained for different values of these regions. Secondly, the numerical solutions are presented for various iterations and the absolute error functions are applied to show the accuracy of the applied homotopy analysis method.     

Permanence of an SIR epidemic model with density dependent birth rate and distributed time delay

In this paper, we investigate the permanence of an SIR epidemic model with a density-dependent birth rate and a distributed time delay. We first consider the attractivity of the disease-free equilibrium and then show that for any time delay, the delayed SIR epidemic model is permanent if and only if an endemic equilibrium exists. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical analysis. The results obtained are also compared with those from the analog system with a discrete time delay.     

Existence of multiple periodic solutions for an SIR model with seasonality

We study an SIR model with a seasonal contact rate and a staged treatment strategy, which is an extension of our previous work [Z. Bai, Y. Zhou, Existence of two periodic solutions for a non-autonomous SIR epidemic model, Appl. Math. Model. 35 (2011) 382-391]. It is proved that the persistence and extinction of the disease are determined by the basic reproductive number (R₀) and a threshold parameter (R_c). It is obtained that the model exhibits two different bistable behaviors under certain conditions: the stable disease-free state coexists with a stable endemic periodic solution, and three endemic periodic solutions coexist with two of them being stable. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate theoretical results.     

Stability analysis for differential infectivity epidemic models

We present several differential infectivity (DI) epidemic models under different assumptions. As the number of contacts is assumed to be constant or a linear function of the total population size, either standard or bilinear incidence of infection is resulted. We establish global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for DI models of SIR (susceptible/infected/removed) type with bilinear incidence and standard incidence but no disease-induced death, respectively. We also obtain global stability of the two equilibria for a DI SIS (susceptible/infected/susceptible) model with population-density-dependent birth and death functions. For completeness, we extend the stability of the infection-free equilibrium for the standard DI SIR model previously proposed.     

加权无标度网络中的疾病传播

提出具有加权传播率和非线性传染能力的SIR模型和SIS模型,通过平均场方法证明了这两个模型在加权无标度网络中可以存在非零的传播阈值,从而传播率需要跨越更大的传播阈值才能流行.并且得到的结果在特殊情况下可退化为已有的一些经典结论.     

非线性接触率SIR模型脉冲接种策略研究

建立了具有非线性接触率脉冲预防接种的SIR传染病模型,利用脉冲微分方程理论,对模型的动力学性态进行了分析,给出了模型的阀值,证明了无病周期解的存在性及全局渐近稳定性.