Thermodynamic integration to predict host-guest binding affinities

An alchemical free energy method with explicit solvent molecular dynamics simulations was applied as part of the blind prediction contest SAMPL3 to calculate binding free energies for seven guests to an acyclic cucurbit-[n]uril host. The predictions included determination of protonation states for both host and guests, docking pose generation, and binding free energy calculations using thermodynamic integration. We found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.6 kcal mol(-1) from the reference experimental results, with an R(2) correlation of 0.51. The agreement with experiment for the largest contributor to this error, guest 6, is improved by 1.7 kcal mol(-1) when a periodicity-induced free energy correction is applied. The corrections for the other ligands were significantly smaller, and altogether the RMSE was reduced by 0.4 kcal mol(-1). We link properties of the host-guest systems during simulation to errors in the computed free energies. Overall, we show that charged host-guest systems studied here, initialized in unconfirmed docking poses, present a challenge to accurate alchemical simulation methods.     

Breaking the polar‐nonpolar division in solvation free energy prediction

Implicit solvent models divide solvation free energies into polar and nonpolar additive contributions, whereas polar and nonpolar interactions are inseparable and nonadditive. We present a feature functional theory (FFT) framework to break this ad hoc division. The essential ideas of FFT are as follows: (i) representability assumption: there exists a microscopic feature vector that can uniquely characterize and distinguish one molecule from another; (ii) feature‐function relationship assumption: the macroscopic features, including solvation free energy, of a molecule is a functional of microscopic feature vectors; and (iii) similarity assumption: molecules with similar microscopic features have similar macroscopic properties, such as solvation free energies. Based on these assumptions, solvation free energy prediction is carried out in the following protocol. First, we construct a molecular microscopic feature vector that is efficient in characterizing the solvation process using quantum mechanics and Poisson–Boltzmann theory. Microscopic feature vectors are combined with macroscopic features, that is, physical observable, to form extended feature vectors. Additionally, we partition a solvation dataset into queries according to molecular compositions. Moreover, for each target molecule, we adopt a machine learning algorithm for its nearest neighbor search, based on the selected microscopic feature vectors. Finally, from the extended feature vectors of obtained nearest neighbors, we construct a functional of solvation free energy, which is employed to predict the solvation free energy of the target molecule. The proposed FFT model has been extensively validated via a large dataset of 668 molecules. The leave‐one‐out test gives an optimal root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 1.05 kcal/mol. FFT predictions of SAMPL0, SAMPL1, SAMPL2, SAMPL3, and SAMPL4 challenge sets deliver the RMSEs of 0.61, 1.86, 1.64, 0.86, and 1.14 kcal/mol, respectively. Using a test set of 94 molecules and its associated training set, the present approach was carefully compared with a classic solvation model based on weighted solvent accessible surface area. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Testing the semi-explicit assembly solvation model in the SAMPL3 community blind test

We report here a test of the Semi-Explicit Assembly (SEA) model in the solvation free energy category of the SAMPL3 blind prediction event (summer 2011). We tested how dependent the SEA results are on the chosen force field by performing calculations with both the General Amber and OPLS force fields. We compared our SEA results with full molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. Of the 20 submissions, our SEA/OPLS results gave the second smallest RMS errors in free energies compared to experiments. SEA gives results that are very similar to those of its underlying force field and explicit solvent model. Hence, while the SEA water modeling approach is much faster than explicit solvent simulations, its predictions appear to be just as accurate.     

Overview of the SAMPL6 host–guest binding affinity prediction challenge

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of small organic molecules to biological macromolecules can greatly accelerate drug discovery by reducing the number of compounds that must be synthesized to realize desired potency and selectivity goals. Unfortunately, the process of assessing the accuracy of current computational approaches to affinity prediction against binding data to biological macromolecules is frustrated by several challenges, such as slow conformational dynamics, multiple titratable groups, and the lack of high-quality blinded datasets. Over the last several SAMPL blind challenge exercises, host–guest systems have emerged as a practical and effective way to circumvent these challenges in assessing the predictive performance of current-generation quantitative modeling tools, while still providing systems capable of possessing tight binding affinities. Here, we present an overview of the SAMPL6 host–guest binding affinity prediction challenge, which featured three supramolecular hosts: octa-acid (OA), the closely related tetra-endo-methyl-octa-acid (TEMOA), and cucurbit[8]uril (CB8), along with 21 small organic guest molecules. A total of 119 entries were received from ten participating groups employing a variety of methods that spanned from electronic structure and movable type calculations in implicit solvent to alchemical and potential of mean force strategies using empirical force fields with explicit solvent models. While empirical models tended to obtain better performance than first-principle methods, it was not possible to identify a single approach that consistently provided superior results across all host–guest systems and statistical metrics. Moreover, the accuracy of the methodologies generally displayed a substantial dependence on the system considered, emphasizing the need for host diversity in blind evaluations. Several entries exploited previous experimental measurements of similar host–guest systems in an effort to improve their physical-based predictions via some manner of rudimentary machine learning; while this strategy succeeded in reducing systematic errors, it did not correspond to an improvement in statistical correlation. Comparison to previous rounds of the host–guest binding free energy challenge highlights an overall improvement in the correlation obtained by the affinity predictions for OA and TEMOA systems, but a surprising lack of improvement regarding root mean square error over the past several challenge rounds. The data suggests that further refinement of force field parameters, as well as improved treatment of chemical effects (e.g., buffer salt conditions, protonation states), may be required to further enhance predictive accuracy.     

Blind prediction of solvation free energies from the SAMPL4 challenge

Here, we give an overview of the small molecule hydration portion of the SAMPL4 challenge, which focused on predicting hydration free energies for a series of 47 small molecules. These gas-to-water transfer free energies have in the past proven a valuable test of a variety of computational methods and force fields. Here, in contrast to some previous SAMPL challenges, we find a relatively wide range of methods perform quite well on this test set, with RMS errors in the 1.2 kcal/mol range for several of the best performing methods. Top-performers included a quantum mechanical approach with continuum solvent models and functional group corrections, alchemical molecular dynamics simulations with a classical all-atom force field, and a single-conformation Poisson–Boltzmann approach. While 1.2 kcal/mol is still a significant error, experimental hydration free energies covered a range of nearly 20 kcal/mol, so methods typically showed substantial predictive power. Here, a substantial new focus was on evaluation of error estimates, as predicting when a computational prediction is reliable versus unreliable has considerable practical value. We found, however, that in many cases errors are substantially underestimated, and that typically little effort has been invested in estimating likely error. We believe this is an important area for further research.     

Testing the semi-explicit assembly model of aqueous solvation in the SAMPL4 challenge

Here, we test a method, called semi-explicit assembly (SEA), that computes the solvation free energies of molecules in water in the SAMPL4 blind test challenge. SEA was developed with the intention of being as accurate as explicit-solvent models, but much faster to compute. It is accurate because it uses pre-simulations of simple spheres in explicit solvent to obtain structural and thermodynamic quantities, and it is fast because it parses solute free energies into regionally additive quantities. SAMPL4 provided us the opportunity to make new tests of SEA. Our tests here lead us to the following conclusions: (1) The newest version, called Field-SEA, which gives improved predictions for highly charged ions, is shown here to perform as well as the earlier versions (dipolar and quadrupolar SEA) on this broad blind SAMPL4 test set. (2) We find that both the past and present SEA models give solvation free energies that are as accurate as TIP3P. (3) Using a new approach for force field parameter optimization, we developed improved hydroxyl parameters that ensure consistency with neat-solvent dielectric constants, and found that they led to improved solvation free energies for hydroxyl-containing compounds in SAMPL4. We also learned that these hydroxyl parameters are not just fixing solvent exposed oxygens in a general sense, and therefore do not improve predictions for carbonyl or carboxylic-acid groups. Other such functional groups will need their own independent optimizations for potential improvements. Overall, these tests in SAMPL4 indicate that SEA is an accurate, general and fast new approach to computing solvation free energies.     

Blind prediction of cyclohexane–water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge

In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty—how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided.     

Prediction of hydration free energies for aliphatic and aromatic chloro derivatives using molecular dynamics simulations with the OPLS-AA force field

All-atom molecular dynamics computer simulations were used to blindly predict the hydration free energies of a range of chloro-organic compounds as part of the SAMPL3 challenge. All compounds were parameterized within the framework of the OPLS-AA force field, using an established protocol to compute the absolute hydration free energy via a windowed free energy perturbation approach and thermodynamic integration. Three different approaches to deriving partial charge parameters were pursued: (1) using existing OPLS-AA atom types and charges with minor adjustments of partial charges on equivalent connecting atoms; (2) calculation of quantum mechanical charges via geometry optimization, followed by electrostatic potential (ESP) fitting, using Jaguar at the LMP2/cc-pVTZ(-F) level; and (3) via geometry optimization and CHelpG charges (Gaussian03 at the HF/6-31G* level), followed by two-stage RESP fitting. Protocol 3 generated the most accurate predictions with a root mean square (RMS) error of 1.2 kcal mol(-1) for the entire data set. It was found that the deficiency of the standard OPLS-AA parameters, protocol 1 (RMS error 2.4 kcal mol(-1) overall), was mostly due to compounds with more than three chlorine substituents on an aromatic ring. For this latter subset, the RMS errors were 1.4 kcal mol(-1) (protocol 3) and 4.3 kcal mol(-1) (protocol 1), respectively. We propose new OPLS-AA atom types for aromatic carbon and chlorine atoms in rings with ≥4 Cl-substituents that perform better than the best QM-based approach, resulting in an RMS error of 1.2 kcal mol(-1) for these difficult compounds.     

The SAMPL5 host–guest challenge: computing binding free energies and enthalpies from explicit solvent simulations by the attach-pull-release (APR) method

The absolute binding free energies and binding enthalpies of twelve host–guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge were computed using our attach-pull-release (APR) approach. This method has previously shown good correlations between experimental and calculated binding data in retrospective studies of cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) and β-cyclodextrin (βCD) systems. In the present work, the computed binding free energies for host octa acid (OA or OAH) and tetra-endo-methyl octa-acid (TEMOA or OAMe) with guests are in good agreement with prospective experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8 and root-mean-squared error of 1.7 kcal/mol using the TIP3P water model. The binding enthalpy calculations achieve moderate correlations, with R² of 0.5 and RMSE of 2.5 kcal/mol, for TIP3P water. Calculations using the newly developed OPC water model also show good performance. Furthermore, the present calculations semi-quantitatively capture the experimental trend of enthalpy-entropy compensation observed, and successfully predict guests with the strongest and weakest binding affinity. The most populated binding poses of all twelve systems, based on clustering analysis of 750 ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, were extracted and analyzed. Computational methods using MD simulations and explicit solvent models in a rigorous statistical thermodynamic framework, like APR, can generate reasonable predictions of binding thermodynamics. Especially with continuing improvement in simulation force fields, such methods hold the promise of making substantial contributions to hit identification and lead optimization in the drug discovery process.     

Quantum chemical predictions of water–octanol partition coefficients applied to the SAMPL6 log P blind challenge

Theoretical approaches for predicting physicochemical properties are valuable tools for accelerating the drug discovery process. In this work, quantum chemical methods are used to predict water–octanol partition coefficients as a part of the SAMPL6 blind challenge. The SMD continuum solvent model was employed with MP2 and eight DFT functionals in conjunction with correlation consistent basis sets to determine the water–octanol transfer free energy. Several tactics towards improving the predictions of the partition coefficient were examined, including increasing the quality of basis sets, considering tautomerization, and accounting for inhomogeneities in the water and n-octanol phases. Evaluation of these various schemes highlights the impact of modeling approaches across different methods. With the inclusion of tautomers and adjustments to the permittivity constants, the best predictions were obtained with smaller basis sets and the O3LYP functional, which yielded an RMSE of 0.79 logP units. The results presented correspond to the SAMPL6 logP submission IDs: DYXBT, O7DJK, and AHMTF.     

The SAMPL4 host–guest blind prediction challenge: an overview

Prospective validation of methods for computing binding affinities can help assess their predictive power and thus set reasonable expectations for their performance in drug design applications. Supramolecular host–guest systems are excellent model systems for testing such affinity prediction methods, because their small size and limited conformational flexibility, relative to proteins, allows higher throughput and better numerical convergence. The SAMPL4 prediction challenge therefore included a series of host–guest systems, based on two hosts, cucurbit[7]uril and octa-acid. Binding affinities in aqueous solution were measured experimentally for a total of 23 guest molecules. Participants submitted 35 sets of computational predictions for these host–guest systems, based on methods ranging from simple docking, to extensive free energy simulations, to quantum mechanical calculations. Over half of the predictions provided better correlations with experiment than two simple null models, but most methods underperformed the null models in terms of root mean squared error and linear regression slope. Interestingly, the overall performance across all SAMPL4 submissions was similar to that for the prior SAMPL3 host–guest challenge, although the experimentalists took steps to simplify the current challenge. While some methods performed fairly consistently across both hosts, no single approach emerged as consistent top performer, and the nonsystematic nature of the various submissions made it impossible to draw definitive conclusions regarding the best choices of energy models or sampling algorithms. Salt effects emerged as an issue in the calculation of absolute binding affinities of cucurbit[7]uril-guest systems, but were not expected to affect the relative affinities significantly. Useful directions for future rounds of the challenge might involve encouraging participants to carry out some calculations that replicate each others’ studies, and to systematically explore parameter options.     

Predictions of hydration free energies from continuum solvent with solute polarizable models: the SAMPL2 blind challenge

This paper reports the results of our attempt to predict hydration free energies on the SAMPL2 blind challenge dataset. We mostly examine the effects of the solute electrostatic component on the accuracy of the predictions. The usefulness of electronic polarization in predicting hydration free energies is assessed by comparing the Electronic Polarization from Internal Continuum model and the self consistent reaction field IEF-PCM to standard non-polarizable charge models such as RESP and AM1-BCC. We also determine an optimal restraint weight for Dielectric-RESP atomic charges fitting. Statistical analysis of the results could not distinguish the methods from one another. The smallest average unsigned error obtained is 1.9 ± 0.6 kcal/mol (95% confidence level). A class of outliers led us to investigate the importance of the solute–solvent instantaneous induction energy, a missing term in PB continuum models. We estimated values between −1.5 and −6 kcal/mol for a series of halo-benzenes which can explain why some predicted hydration energies of non-polar molecules significantly disagreed with experiment.     

Blind prediction of host–guest binding affinities: a new SAMPL3 challenge

The computational prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is of central interest in early-stage drug-discovery, and there is a widely recognized need for improved methods. Low molecular weight receptors and their ligands--i.e., host-guest systems--represent valuable test-beds for such affinity prediction methods, because their small size makes for fast calculations and relatively facile numerical convergence. The SAMPL3 community exercise included the first ever blind prediction challenge for host-guest binding affinities, through the incorporation of 11 new host-guest complexes. Ten participating research groups addressed this challenge with a variety of approaches. Statistical assessment indicates that, although most methods performed well at predicting some general trends in binding affinity, overall accuracy was not high, as all the methods suffered from either poor correlation or high RMS errors or both. There was no clear advantage in using explicit versus implicit solvent models, any particular force field, or any particular approach to conformational sampling. In a few cases, predictions using very similar energy models but different sampling and/or free-energy methods resulted in significantly different results. The protonation states of one host and some guest molecules emerged as key uncertainties beyond the choice of computational approach. The present results have implications for methods development and future blind prediction exercises.     

Overview of the SAMPL5 host–guest challenge: Are we doing better?

The ability to computationally predict protein-small molecule binding affinities with high accuracy would accelerate drug discovery and reduce its cost by eliminating rounds of trial-and-error synthesis and experimental evaluation of candidate ligands. As academic and industrial groups work toward this capability, there is an ongoing need for datasets that can be used to rigorously test new computational methods. Although protein–ligand data are clearly important for this purpose, their size and complexity make it difficult to obtain well-converged results and to troubleshoot computational methods. Host–guest systems offer a valuable alternative class of test cases, as they exemplify noncovalent molecular recognition but are far smaller and simpler. As a consequence, host–guest systems have been part of the prior two rounds of SAMPL prediction exercises, and they also figure in the present SAMPL5 round. In addition to being blinded, and thus avoiding biases that may arise in retrospective studies, the SAMPL challenges have the merit of focusing multiple researchers on a common set of molecular systems, so that methods may be compared and ideas exchanged. The present paper provides an overview of the host–guest component of SAMPL5, which centers on three different hosts, two octa-acids and a glycoluril-based molecular clip, and two different sets of guest molecules, in aqueous solution. A range of methods were applied, including electronic structure calculations with implicit solvent models; methods that combine empirical force fields with implicit solvent models; and explicit solvent free energy simulations. The most reliable methods tend to fall in the latter class, consistent with results in prior SAMPL rounds, but the level of accuracy is still below that sought for reliable computer-aided drug design. Advances in force field accuracy, modeling of protonation equilibria, electronic structure methods, and solvent models, hold promise for future improvements.     

Predicting cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for the SAMPL5 challenge using MOSCED and the SMD solvation model

We present blind predictions using the solubility parameter based method MOSCED submitted for the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K. Reference data to parameterize MOSCED was generated with knowledge only of chemical structure by performing solvation free energy calculations using electronic structure calculations in the SMD continuum solvent. To maintain simplicity and use only a single method, we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species. Over the final SAMPL5 set of 53 compounds, we achieved an average unsigned error of \(2.2\pm 0.2\) log units (ranking 15 out of 62 entries), the correlation coefficient (R) was \(0.6\pm 0.1\) (ranking 35), and \(72\pm 6\,\%\) of the predictions had the correct sign (ranking 30). While used here to predict cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K, MOSCED is broadly applicable, allowing one to predict temperature dependent infinite dilution activity coefficients in any solvent for which parameters exist, and provides a means by which an excess Gibbs free energy model may be parameterized to predict composition dependent phase-equilibrium.     

Predicting hydration free energies using all-atom molecular dynamics simulations and multiple starting conformations

Molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent were applied to predict the hydration free energies for 23 small organic molecules in blind SAMPL2 test. We found good agreement with experimental results, with an RMS error of 2.82 kcal/mol over the whole set and 1.86 kcal/mol over all the molecules except several hydroxyl-rich compounds where we find evidence for a systematic error in the force field. We tested two different solvent models, TIP3P and TIP4P-Ew, and obtained very similar hydration free energies for these two models; the RMS difference was 0.64 kcal/mol. We found that preferred conformation of the carboxylic acids in water differs from that in vacuum. Surprisingly, this conformational change is not adequately sampled on simulation timescales, so we apply an umbrella sampling technique to include free energies associated with the conformational change. Overall, the results of this test reveal that the force field parameters for some groups of molecules (such as hydroxyl-rich compounds) still need to be improved, but for most compounds, accuracy was consistent with that seen in our previous tests.     

Binding free energy predictions in host-guest systems using Autodock4. A retrospective analysis on SAMPL6, SAMPL7 and SAMPL8 challenges

Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design - We systematically tested the Autodock4 docking program for absolute binding free energy predictions using the host-guest systems from the recent SAMPL6,...     

All-atom/coarse-grained hybrid predictions of distribution coefficients in SAMPL5

We present blind predictions submitted to the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating distribution coefficients. The predictions were based on estimating the solvation free energies in water and cyclohexane of the 53 compounds in the challenge. These free energies were computed using alchemical free energy simulations based on a hybrid all-atom/coarse-grained model. The compounds were treated with the general Amber force field, whereas the solvent molecules were treated with the Elba coarse-grained model. Considering the simplicity of the solvent model and that we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species, the predictions are of good accuracy. The correlation coefficient, R is 0.64, 82 % of the predictions have the correct sign and the mean absolute deviation is 1.8 log units. This is on a par with or better than the other simulation-based predictions in the challenge. We present an analysis of the deviations to experiments and compare the predictions to another submission that used all-atom solvent.     

Extended solvent-contact model approach to SAMPL4 blind prediction challenge for hydration free energies

Extended solvent-contact model was applied to the blind prediction of the hydration free energies of 47 organic molecules included in the SAMPL4 data set. To obtain a suitable prediction tool, we constructed a hydration free energy function involving three kinds of atomic parameters. With respect to total 34 atom types introduced to describe all SAMPL4 molecules, 102 atomic parameters were defined and optimized with a standard genetic algorithm in such a way to minimize the difference between the experimental hydration free energies and those calculated with the hydration free energy function. In this parameterization, we used a training set comprising 77 organic molecules with varying sizes and shapes. The estimated hydration free energies for the SAMPL4 molecules compared reasonably well with the experimental results with the associated squared correlation coefficient and root mean square deviation of 0.89 and 1.46 kcal/mol, respectively. Based on the comparative analysis of experimental and computational hydration free energies of the SAMPL4 molecules, the methods for further improvement of the present hydration model are suggested.