Scale economies and production function estimation for object-oriented software component and source code documentation size

In this study, we investigate the factors that influence the object-oriented (OO) component size and source code documentation. For multiple inputs and multiple outputs, we use data envelopment analysis to illustrate that non-linear variable returns to scale (VRS) economies exist for OO component size and source code documentation. The existence of non-linear variable returns to scale economies indicates that non-linear regression models will perform better than linear regression models. Using empirical data, we compare the performance of non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting model and linear regression model. Our results indicate that the ANN model performs well when VRS economies exist between multiple inputs and multiple outputs.     

A continuous model of the dynamical systems capable to memorise multiple shapes

This paper proposes the novel approach to the mathematical synthesis of continuous self-organising systems capable to memorise and restore own multiple shapes defined by means of functions of single spatial variable or parametric models in two-dimensional space. The model is based on the certain universal form of the integral operator with the kernel representing the system memory. The technique for memorising shapes uses the composition of singular kernels of integral operators. The whole system is described by the potential function, whose minimisation leads to the non-linear dynamics of shape reconstruction by integro-differential non-linear equations with partial derivatives. The corresponding models are proposed and analysed for both parametric and non-parametric shape definitions. Main features of the proposed model are considered, and the results of numerical simulation are shown in case of three shapes memorising and retrieval. The proposed model can be used in theory of smart materials, artificial intelligence and some other branches of non-linear sciences where the effect of multiple shapes memorising and retrieval appears as the core feature.     

Equivalence group of a fourth-order evolution equation unifying various non-linear models

A fourth-order non-linear evolutionary partial differential equation containing several arbitrary functions of the dependent variable is considered. This equation arises as a generalization of various non-linear models describing a non-linear heat diffusion, the dynamics of thin liquid films, etc. Equivalence transformations give more flexibility to the unified model. We determine the generators of the equivalence group and use them for specifying certain types of arbitrary functions when the model equation has additional symmetries, and hence admits non-trivial group invariant solutions.     

The linear formulation of the ZSG-DEA models with different production technologies

The zero sum gains data envelopment analysis models (ZSG-DEA models) are non-linear. In this paper, we first show that the ZSG-DEA models can be transformed to linear or parametric linear models and discuss the feasible domains of the parameters. Second, we show that the linear formulations of ZSG-DEA models under the equal output reduction strategy and the proportional output reduction strategy in a single output case are equivalent to the output-oriented super-efficiency model under variable returns-to-scale (VRS) assumption. As a matter of course, the models may encounter infeasibility. Third, we propose the linear transformations of ZSG-DEA models under constant returns-to-scale (CRS) assumption and compare them with the VRS models. In the end, we evaluate the participant countries at the Olympic Games by the linear equivalent models with multiple outputs under different weight restrictions. Our results are compared with the efficiencies obtained from the original ZSG-DEA model with an aggregated output under both CRS and VRS assumptions. It is found that the original method with aggregated output tends to underestimate the efficiencies of DMUs.     

Modelling and long-term simulation of a heat recovery steam generator

Developing accurate non-linear dynamical models for heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) units is presented in this article. The common non-linear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) system topology was employed to develop the neuro-fuzzy models based on the experimental data taken during field experiments. In this structure, the non-linear behaviours of the HRSG unit can be characterized through interpolation of local linear models associated with different operating regions via fuzzy inference mechanism. The operating regimes were recognized by applying a genetic algorithm-based fuzzy clustering technique to the prepared data sets. The structures of the fuzzy models are defined with respect to the obtained optimal cluster centres and the corresponding membership functions. The parameters of fuzzy rules were adjusted by recursive least-squares estimation method to fit the model responses to real data. The performances of developed models were evaluated by performing a comparison between the model responses and the responses of the real plant. In addition, the stability of the developed models was assessed by perturbing the model inputs from the nominal values. This guarantees the long-term simulation capabilities of the developed models. A comparison between the responses of the corresponding models and the models obtained from some recent modelling approaches was performed to show the advantages of the developed models. The results show the accuracy and reliability of the developed models at transient and steady-state conditions.     

Development of improved adaptive approaches to electricity demand forecasting

This paper develops a short-term forecasting system for hourly electricity load demand based on Unobserved Components set up in a State Space framework. The system consists of two options, a univariate model and a non-linear bivariate model that relates demand to temperature. In order to handle the rapidly sampling interval of the data, a multi-rate approach is implemented with models estimated at different frequencies, some of them with ‘periodically amplitude modulated’ properties. The non-linear relation between demand and temperature is identified via a Data-Based Mechanistic approach and finally implemented by Radial Basis Functions. The models also include signal extraction of daily and weekly components. Both models are tested on the basis of a thorough experiment in which other options, like ARIMA and Artificial Neural Networks are also used. The models proposed compare very favourably with the rest of alternatives in forecasting load demand.     

Adaptive credit scoring with kernel learning methods

Credit scoring is a method of modelling potential risk of credit applications. Traditionally, logistic regression and discriminant analysis are the most widely used approaches to create scoring models in the industry. However, these methods are associated with quite a few limitations, such as being instable with high-dimensional data and small sample size, intensive variable selection effort and incapability of efficiently handling non-linear features. Most importantly, based on these algorithms, it is difficult to automate the modelling process and when population changes occur, the static models usually fail to adapt and may need to be rebuilt from scratch. In the last few years, the kernel learning approach has been investigated to solve these problems. However, the existing applications of this type of methods (in particular the SVM) in credit scoring have all focused on the batch model and did not address the important problem of how to update the scoring model on-line. This paper presents a novel and practical adaptive scoring system based on an incremental kernel method. With this approach, the scoring model is adjusted according to an on-line update procedure that can always converge to the optimal solution without information loss or running into numerical difficulties. Non-linear features in the data are automatically included in the model through a kernel transformation. This approach does not require any variable reduction effort and is also robust for scoring data with a large number of attributes and highly unbalanced class distributions. Moreover, a new potential kernel function is introduced to further improve the predictive performance of the scoring model and a kernel attribute ranking technique is used that adds transparency in the final model. Experimental studies using real world data sets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

The use of relative residues in non-linear regression

A non-linear curve-fitting model is presented which minimizes the sum of squares of relative residues, and expressions are derived for the fit parameters and their respective errors. A detailed comparison is made between the new general relative least squares model (GRLS) and other non-linear regression models available in the literature, using two sets of data representing fluid mechanics problems encountered in many engineering applications. The results showed that GRLS was the best model for fitting non-linear functions in the case of experimental data spanning several orders of magnitude, indicating its potential as a tool for data analysis.     

Micro–macro multilevel latent class models with multiple discrete individual-level variables

An existing micro–macro method for a single individual-level variable is extended to the multivariate situation by presenting two multilevel latent class models in which multiple discrete individual-level variables are used to explain a group-level outcome. As in the univariate case, the individual-level data are summarized at the group-level by constructing a discrete latent variable at the group level and this group-level latent variable is used as a predictor for the group-level outcome. In the first extension, that is referred to as the Direct model, the multiple individual-level variables are directly used as indicators for the group-level latent variable. In the second extension, referred to as the Indirect model, the multiple individual-level variables are used to construct an individual-level latent variable that is used as an indicator for the group-level latent variable. This implies that the individual-level variables are used indirectly at the group-level. The within- and between components of the (co)varn the individual-level variables are independent in the Direct model, but dependent in the Indirect model. Both models are discussed and illustrated with an empirical data example.     

A conic relaxation model for searching for the global optimum of network data envelopment analysis

Network data envelopment analysis (DEA) models the internal structures of decision-making units (DMUs). Unlike the standard DEA model, multiplier-based network DEA models are often highly non-linear and cannot be converted into linear programs. As such, obtaining a non-linear network DEA's global optimal solution is a challenge because it corresponds to a nonconvex optimization problem. In this paper, we introduce a conic relaxation model that searches for the global optimum to the general multiplier-based network DEA model. We reformulate the general network DEA models and relax the new models into second order cone programming (SOCP) problems. In comparison with linear relaxation models, which is potentially applicable to general network DEA structures, the conic relaxation model guarantees applicability in general network DEA, since McCormick envelopes involved are ensured to be finite. Furthermore, the conic relaxation model avoids unnecessary linear relaxations of some nonlinear constraints. It generates, in a more convenient manner, feasible approximations and tighter upper bounds on the global optimal overall efficiency. Compared with a line-parameter search method that has been applied to solve non-linear network DEA models, the conic relaxation model keeps track of the distances between the optimal overall efficiency and its approximations. As a result, it is able to determine whether a qualified approximation has been achieved or not, with the help of a branch and bound algorithm. Hence, our proposed approach can substantially reduce the computations involved.     

Non-linear model parameter estimation–estimating a feasible parameter set with respect to model use

This article deals with non-linear model parameter estimation from experimental data. As for non-linear models a rigorous identifiability analysis is difficult to perform, parameter estimation is performed in such a way that uncertainty in the estimated parameter values is represented by the range of model use results when the model is used for a certain purpose. Using this approach, the article presents a simulation study where the objective is to discover whether the estimation of model parameters can be improved, so that a small enough range of model use results is obtained. The results of the study indicate that from plant measurements available for the estimation of model parameters, it is possible to extract data that are important for the estimation of model parameters relative to a certain model use. If these data are improved by a proper measurement campaign (e.g. proper choice of measured variables, better accuracy, higher measurement frequency) it is to be expected that a valid model for a certain model use will be obtained. The simulation study is performed for an activated sludge model from wastewater treatment, while the estimation of model parameters is done by Monte Carlo simulation.     

Thermal behaviour prediction utilizing artificial neural networks for an open office

This study investigates a neural network-based non-linear autoregressive model with external inputs (NNARX), a non-linear autoregressive moving average model with external inputs (NNARMAX), and a non-linear output error model (NNOE) to predict the thermal behaviour of an open-plan office in a modern commercial building. External and internal climate data recorded over one summer, autumn and winter season were used to build and validate the models. The paper illustrates the potential of using these models to predict room temperature and relative humidity for different time scales ahead (30 min or 2 h ahead). The prediction performance is evaluated using the criteria of goodness of fit, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and mean squared error between predicted model output and real measurements. To obtain an optimal network structure (avoiding overfitting) after training, a pruning algorithm called optimal brain surgeon (OBS) was used to remove unnecessary input signals, weights and hidden neurons. The results demonstrate that all models provide reasonably good predictions but the NNARX and NNARMAX models outperform the NNOE model. These models can all potentially be used for improving the performance of thermal environment control systems.     

Sampling Schemes for Bayesian Variable Selection in Generalized Linear Models

Bayesian approaches to prediction and the assessment of predictive uncertainty in generalized linear models are often based on averaging predictions over different models, and this requires methods for accounting for model uncertainty. When there are linear dependencies among potential predictor variables in a generalized linear model, existing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling from the posterior distribution on the model and parameter space in Bayesian variable selection problems may not work well. This article describes a sampling algorithm based on the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model, and which works well when the predictors are far from orthogonality. In problems of variable selection for generalized linear models we can index different models by a binary parameter vector, where each binary variable indicates whether or not a given predictor variable is included in the model. The posterior distribution on the model is a distribution on this collection of binary strings, and by thinking of this posterior distribution as a binary spatial field we apply a sampling scheme inspired by the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model in order to sample from the model posterior distribution. The algorithm we describe extends a similar algorithm for variable selection problems in linear models. The benefits of the algorithm are demonstrated for both real and simulated data.     

非线性时间序列的投影寻踪学习网络逼近

本文研究非线性自回归模型投影寻踪学习网络逼近的收敛性,证明了在L^k(k为正整数）空间上,投影寻踪学习网络可以以任意精度逼近非线性自回归模型,给出基于投影寻踪学习网络的非线性时间序列模型建模和预报的计算方法和应用实例,对太阳黑子数据,山猫数据及西安数据进行了拟合和预报,将其结果与改进BP网和门限自回归模型相应的结果进行比较,结果表明基于投影寻踪学习网络的非线性时间序列的建模预报方法是一类行之有效的方法。     

On the inventory model with variable lead time and price–quantity discount

In this paper, we propose a mixed integer optimization approach for solving the inventory problem with variable lead time, crashing cost, and price–quantity discount. A linear programming relaxation based on piecewise linearization techniques is derived for the problem. It first converts non-linear terms into the sum of absolute terms, which are then linearized by goal programming techniques and linearization approaches. The proposed method can eliminate the complicated multiple-step solution process used in the traditional inventory models. In addition, the proposed model allows constraints to be added by the inventory decision-maker as deemed appropriate in real-world situations.     

Robust variable selection for finite mixture regression models

Finite mixture regression (FMR) models are frequently used in statistical modeling, often with many covariates with low significance. Variable selection techniques can be employed to identify the covariates with little influence on the response. The problem of variable selection in FMR models is studied here. Penalized likelihood-based approaches are sensitive to data contamination, and their efficiency may be significantly reduced when the model is slightly misspecified. We propose a new robust variable selection procedure for FMR models. The proposed method is based on minimum-distance techniques, which seem to have some automatic robustness to model misspecification. We show that the proposed estimator has the variable selection consistency and oracle property. The finite-sample breakdown point of the estimator is established to demonstrate its robustness. We examine small-sample and robustness properties of the estimator using a Monte Carlo study. We also analyze a real data set.     

Connecting a population dynamic model with a multi-period location-allocation problem for post-disaster relief operations

In this study, we propose a mathematical model and heuristics for solving a multi-period location-allocation problem in post-disaster operations, which takes into account the impact of distribution over the population. Logistics restrictions such as human and financial resources are considered. In addition, a brief review on resilience system models is provided, as well as their connection with quantitative models for post-disaster relief operations. In particular, we highlight how one can improve resilience by means of OR/MS strategies. Then, a simpler resilience schema is proposed, which better reflects an active system for providing humanitarian aid in post-disaster operations, similar to the model focused in this work. The proposed model is non-linear and solved by a decomposition approach: the master level problem is addressed by a non-linear solver, while the slave subproblem is treated as a black-box coupling heuristics and a Variable Neighborhood Descent local search. Computational experiments have been done using several scenarios, and real data from Belo Horizonte city in Brazil.     

Reconstruction of controls in exponentially stable linear systems subjected to small perturbations

The problem of the dynamical reconstruction of the variable input of an exponentially stable linear system subjected to small non-linear perturbations is considered. In the case of inaccurate observations of its phase trajectory, an algorithm for solving this problem is given, based on the method of control with a model. The algorithm is stable to data interference and computation errors. General constructions are illustrated by an example in which the problem of reconstructing the input of an oscillatory section is discussed.     

灰色时序组合模型及其在地下水埋深预测中的应用

地下水埋深的变化过程是一个复杂的非线性过程,这种具有复杂的非线性组合特征的序列,使用某一种模型进行预测,结果往往不理想.在分析了灰色GM(1,1)模型、灰色GM(1,1)周期性修正模型和时序AR(n)模型的优点和缺点基础上,提出了一种新的灰色时序组合预报模型.该方法利用了GM预测所需原始数据少、方法简单的优点,用周期修正方法反映其地下水位埋深周期性波动的特征,用AR(n)模型预报其地下水位埋深的随机变化.实例研究表明,这种方法方便简洁实用且预测结果接近于实际观测值,为其它地区的地下水位埋深和相关时间序列的分析研究提供参考与借鉴作用.     

Efficient optimisation of a vehicle suspension system, using a gradient-based approximation method, Part 1: Mathematical modelling

A methodology is proposed for the efficient determination of gradient information, when performing gradient based optimisation of an off-road vehicle’s suspension system. The methodology is applied to a computationally expensive, non-linear vehicle model, that exhibits severe numerical noise. A recreational off-road vehicle is modelled in MSC.ADAMS, and coupled to MATLAB for the execution of the optimisation. The successive approximation method, Dynamic-Q, is used for the optimisation of the spring and damper characteristics. Optimisation is performed for both ride comfort and handling. The determination of the objective function value is performed using computationally expensive numerical simulations.This paper proposes a non-linear pitch-plane model, to be used for the gradient information, when optimising ride comfort. When optimising for handling, a non-linear four wheel model, that includes roll, is used. The gradients of the objective function and constraint functions are obtained through the use of central finite differences, within Dynamic-Q, via numerical simulation using the proposed simplified models. The importance of correctly scaling these simplified models is emphasised. The models are validated against experimental results. The simplified vehicle models exhibit significantly less numerical noise than the full vehicle simulation model, and solve in significantly less computational time.