Maximum likelihood estimation for birth and multidimensional Brownian process

The individuals of a population reproduce according to a linear birth process and simultaneously and independently diffuse inp-dimensional Euclidean space according to a Brownian process with dependent coordinates. The properties of the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift vector and the matrix of diffusion coefficients are investigated under two sampling schemes involving incomplete observations.     

Global dynamics of approximate solutions to an age-structured epidemic model with diffusion

We consider an age-dependent s-i-s epidemic model with diffusion whose mortality is unbounded. We approximate the solution using Galerkin methods in the space variable combined with backward Euler along the characteristic direction in the age and time variables. It is proven that the scheme is stable and convergent in optimal rate in l ^∞,2 (L ²) norm. To investigate the global behavior of the discrete solution resulting from the algorithm, we reformulate the resulting system into a monotone form. Positivity of the nonlocal birth process is proved using the positivity of the first eigenvalue of the resulting matrix system and using the fact that the positivity is preserved along the characteristics. The difference equation of the steady state coupled with nonlocal birth process is solved by developing monotone iterative schemes. The stability of the discrete solution of the steady state is then analyzed by constructing suitable positive subsolutions. Mathematics subject classifications (2000) 65M12, 65M25, 65M60, 92D25 M.-Y. Kim: This work was supported by Korea Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2001-041-D00037).     

Penalization for Birth and Death Processes

In this paper we study a transient birth and death Markov process penalized by its sojourn time in 0. Under the new probability measure the original process behaves as a recurrent birth and death Markov process. We also show, in a particular case, that an initially recurrent birth and death process behaves as a transient birth and death process after penalization with the event that it can reach zero in infinite time. We illustrate some of our results with the Bessel random walk example.     

生灭过程的Ito游程理论

当生灭过程不唯一,且附加的虚状态∞是"瞬时"且正则时,其轨道结构是异常复杂的.主要工作是利用Ito的游程理论来分析处理这种生灭过程,研究其轨道性质,并最终得到预解式.此预解式具有清楚的概率意义,能够直观地反映生灭过程的轨道结构.     

THE ERGODICITY FOR BI-IMMIGRATION BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

The concepts of bi-immigration birth and death density matrix in random environment and bi-immigration birth and death process in random environment are introduced. For any bi-immigration birth and death matrix in random environment Q（θ） with birth rate λ 〈 death rate μ, the following results are proved, （1） there is an unique q-process in random environment, P^-（θ＊（0）;t） = （p^-（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j）,i,j ≥ 0）, which is ergodic, that is, lim t→∞（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j） = π^-（θ^＊（0）;j） ≥0 does not depend on i ≥ 0 and ∑j≥0π （θ＊（0）;j） = 1, （2） there is a bi-immigration birth and death process in random enjvironment （X^＊ = {X^＊,t ≥ 0},ε^＊ = {εt,t ∈ （-∞, ∞）}） with random transition matrix P^-（θ^＊ （0）;t） such that X^＊ is a strictly stationary process.     

Is the dying individual the oldest?

Consider a population in which the birth times are a Poisson process with rate γ lifetimes are independent and identically distributed and lifetimes are independent of the birth process. In the paper we provide methods for calculation of several quantities involving the oldest member (senior) of the population. In particular we study the senior's age process and the point process of seniors' deaths obtained by dependent thinning of a Poisson process.     

A state‐dependent Markov‐modulated mechanism for generating events and stochastic models

In this paper, we introduce a versatile block‐structured state‐dependent event (BSDE) approach that provides a methodological tool to construct non‐homogeneous Markov‐modulated stochastic models. Alternatively, the BSDE approach can be used to construct even a part (e.g. the arrival process) of the model. To illustrate the usefulness of the BSDE approach, several arrival patterns as well as queueing and epidemic models are considered. In particular, we deal with a state‐dependent quasi‐birth‐and‐death process that gives a constructive generalization of the scalar birth‐and‐death process and the homogeneous quasi‐birth‐and‐death process. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infinitesimal perturbation analysis of a birth and death process

Using a birth and death process as an illustrative example, we introduce the notion of alternative representations of stochastic processes and discuss its importance for infinitesimal perturbation analysis derivative estimation. Through a different choice of representation, we are led to an IPA algorithm for a birth and death process better than one discussed by other authors.     

Stochastic birth-and-growth processes modelling crystallization of polymers with spatially heterogeneous parameters

The morphology of a crystalline polymeric material is characterized by the crystallization process, which occurs during the solidification from the liquid state. This process includes a stochastic birth process (nucleation) and the growth of crystals. From a mathematical point of view, the nucleation process is a marked point process with a stochastic intensity depending on the history of the proceses of birth and growth. Here we consider an extension of the classical Avrami–Kolmogorov model to the case of space-time heterogeneous kinetic parameters. Concepts from stochastic geometry are used, which include the so called causal cone. The Markov property of the process is also analysed.     

Hitting Time Distributions for Denumerable Birth and Death Processes

For an ergodic continuous-time birth and death process on the nonnegative integers, a well-known theorem states that the hitting time T _0,n starting from state 0 to state n has the same distribution as the sum of n independent exponential random variables. Firstly, we generalize this theorem to an absorbing birth and death process (say, with state ?1 absorbing) to derive the distribution of T _0,n . We then give explicit formulas for Laplace transforms of hitting times between any two states for an ergodic or absorbing birth and death process. Secondly, these results are all extended to birth and death processes on the nonnegative integers with ?? an exit, entrance, or regular boundary. Finally, we apply these formulas to fastest strong stationary times for strongly ergodic birth and death processes.     

Allocating a joint setup in a multi-cell system

Consider a manufacturing system consisting of multiple cells; each cell processes a certain type of part family. For such systems, we study the problem of optimally allocating a joint setup among these cells. The production process of each cell is modelled by a birth process. Certain monotonicity properties of these birth process are established and used to show that the efficient discrete marginal allocation approach of Fox [1] can be applied here.Supported in part by NSF under grants DMC-8503896 and ECS-8658157, and by ONR under contract N00014-84-K-0465.     

On the cycle maximum of birth–death processes and networks of queues

This paper considers the cycle maximum in birth–death processes as a stepping stone to characterisation of the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum number of customers in single queues and open Kelly–Whittle networks of queues. For positive recurrent birth–death processes we show that the sequence of sample maxima is stochastically compact. For transient birth–death processes we show that the sequence of sample maxima conditioned on the maximum being finite is stochastically compact.We show that the Markov chain recording the total number of customers in a Kelly–Whittle network is a birth–death process with birth and death rates determined by the normalising constants in a suitably defined sequence of closed networks. Explicit or asymptotic expressions for these normalising constants allow asymptotic evaluation of the birth and death rates, which, in turn, allows characterisation of the cycle maximum in a single busy cycle, and convergence of the sequence of sample maxima for Kelly–Whittle networks of queues.     

Generating Birth and Death Processes

Associated with an ordered sequence of an even number 2N of positive real numbers is a birth and death process (BDP) on {0, 1, 2,…, N} having these real numbers as its birth and death rates. We generate another birth and death process from this BDP on {0, 1, 2,…, 2N}. This can be further iterated. We illustrate with an example from tan(kz). In BDP, the decay parameter, viz., the largest non-zero eigenvalue is important in the study of convergence to stationarity. In this article, the smallest eigenvalue is found to be useful.     

Central limit theorems for ergodic continuous-time Markov chains with applications to single birth processes

We obtain sufficient criteria for central limit theorems (CLTs) for ergodic continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). We apply the results to establish CLTs for continuous-time single birth processes. Moreover, we present an explicit expression of the time average variance constant for a single birth process whenever a CLT exists. Several examples are given to illustrate these results.     

Optimum replacement policies for systems subject to shocks

Summary: A system experiences a shock of magnitude γ _i at time τ _i . Each shock deteriorate system to some extent and due to the decrease in efficiency, the system becomes more expensive to run. Assuming that the shock process is a general birth process and the cost structure depends on the magnitude of the shocks and time, the optimum replacement period of the system has been derived Optimum replacement periods for particular cases of general birth process are discussed in detail with suitable examples.     

Simulation and Estimation for the Fractional Yule Process

In this paper, we propose some representations of a generalized linear birth process called fractional Yule process (fYp). We also derive the probability distributions of the random birth and sojourn times. The inter-birth time distribution and the representations then yield algorithms on how to simulate sample paths of the fYp. We also attempt to estimate the model parameters in order for the fYp to be usable in practice. The estimation procedure is then tested using simulated data as well. We also illustrate some major characteristics of fYp which will be helpful for real applications.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for a branching diffusion process

This paper investigates the properties of the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficients under three sampling schemes for a branching diffusion process in which the branching process is a linear birth process and the diffusion is in accordance with the Brownian motion with drift.     

生物种群在污染环境中的生灭过程

建立了生物种群在污染环境中的一个线性生灭过程模型.利用马尔可夫过程的理论和方法,得到生物种群数量变化的概率分布,最后讨论了各模型参数的变化对生物种群生存的影响.     

Large homogeneous communication networks with Markovian access control II. Global behavior and residence time

A solution to the problem of dynamic analysis of large homogeneous communication networks with Markovian access control disciplines is given. For the case of multiple steady states and buffered users it is shown that: (i) the state space portrait of the system contains a one-dimensional stable manifold; (ii) the dynamics of the system can be reduced to a birth and death process defined on this manifold; and (iii) the residence time of each metastable steady state of the above birth and death process can be calculated on the basis of a new asymptotic procedure. Simulations show that this procedure results in acceptable precision.     

Unified characteristic numbers and solutions of equations for birth and death processes with barriers

The state 0 of a birth and death process with state space E = {0, 1, 2,....} is a barrier which can be classified into four kinds： reflection, absorption, leaping reflection, quasi-leaping reflection. For the first, second and fourth barriers, the characteristic numbers of different forms have been introduced. In this paper unified characteristic numbers for birth and death processes with barriers were introduced, the related equations were solved and the solutions were expressed by unified characteristic numbers. This paper concerns work solving probability construction problem of birth and death processes with leaping reflection barrier and quasi-leaping reflection barrier.