An automatic mode pairing strategy using an enhanced modal assurance criterion based on modal strain energies

In the context of finite element model updating using output-only vibration test data, natural frequencies and mode shapes are used as validation criteria. Consequently, the correct pairing of experimentally obtained and numerically derived natural frequencies and mode shapes is important. In many cases, only limited spatial information is available and noise is present in the measurements. Therefore, the automatic selection of the most likely numerical mode shape corresponding to a particular experimentally identified mode shape can be a difficult task. The most common criterion for indicating corresponding mode shapes is the modal assurance criterion. Unfortunately, this criterion fails in certain cases and is not reliable for automatic approaches.In this paper, the purely mathematical modal assurance criterion will be enhanced by additional physical information from the numerical model in terms of modal strain energies. A numerical example and a benchmark study with experimental data are presented to show the advantages of the proposed energy-based criterion in comparison to the traditional modal assurance criterion.     

根据非线性贝叶斯理论的界面波频散曲线反演

通过时频分析法从海底环境噪声数据中提取界面波频散曲线,进而采用非线性贝叶斯反演方法估算海底沉积物厚度、剪切波速度、压缩波速度和密度等参数及其不确定性。参数的最大后验概率(MAP)估计值和边缘概率分布分别通过自适应单纯形模拟退火法和Metropolis-Hastings采样法在各参数先验区间内搜索获得,采用贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)从不同参数化模型中选择最优模型。界面波频散曲线反演结果表明:满足实测数据的最优海底模型结构为3层均匀分布剪切波速度剖面结构,海底深度的反演精度在800m以内,比起压缩波速度和密度,剪切波速度的不确定性更小,对界面波频散曲线更敏感。      

光谱数据解析中的变量筛选方法

如何从海量或高维数据中“提纯”出有用的信息,这是当前数据分析面临的一个巨大的挑战,也是当前研究的一个热点。变量筛选技术能够从众多、复杂的量测数据中提取出特征信息变量,达到简化多元模型乃至提高模型预测性能等目的。在光谱分析中,来自噪声等诸多因素的影响,量测数据会不可避免地包含干扰和无关信息变量,以及变量间存在的多重共线性,这些都会影响模型的稳健性和预测能力。近年来变量（波长）筛选方法在光谱解析领域的研究与应用中取得了较大的进展。结合国内外相关研究文献和作者的研究体会,不仅仅综述了近红外光谱,还综述了中红外光谱、拉曼光谱等众多筛选变量的方法的提出、特点、发展、类别、比较和近五年来在不同领域的应用进展。其中,评价变量重要性的参数及其标准或阈值的选择、搜索变量的策略和途径是变量筛选方法的关键。而且每种方法都具有各自的优势和局限性,实际使用中要根据方法自身特点结合目标体系的特征选择合适的方法。重点内容：（1）对比了光谱数据分析中常用的波长筛选和波段筛选方法;（2）对比了基于PLS模型参数的不同变量筛选方法的原理和特点;（3）根据搜索和筛选变量策略的不同将变量筛选方法进行分类评述。最后,围绕在解析实际复杂体系中变量筛选方法出现的过拟合、不稳定等问题进行了讨论并提出相应的解决措施,同时对变量筛选方法的研究趋势、发展前景和应用方向进行了展望。其中,新的评价变量重要性的判据和搜索变量的策略等工作仍需要展开深入地研究。期望本综述能够对光谱变量筛选的后续研究及应用起到积极的推动作用。     

Splitting Choice and Computational Complexity Analysis of Decision Trees

Some theories are explored in this research about decision trees which give theoretical support to the applications based on decision trees. The first is that there are many splitting criteria to choose in the tree growing process. The splitting bias that influences the criterion chosen due to missing values and variables with many possible values has been studied. Results show that the Gini index is superior to entropy information as it has less bias regarding influences. The second is that noise variables with more missing values have a better chance to be chosen while informative variables do not. The third is that when there are many noise variables involved in the tree building process, it influences the corresponding computational complexity. Results show that the computational complexity increase is linear to the number of noise variables. So methods that decompose more information from the original data but increase the variable dimension can also be considered in real applications.     

最小相关系数的多元校正波长选择算法

在近红外光谱的定量分析中,由于仪器的精密程度越来越高,采集的光谱数据通常具有很高的维度.因此,波长选择对于剔除噪声及冗余变量,简化模型,提高模型的预测性能是必不可少的.近红外光谱特征波长选择方法众多,但变量间的多重共线性问题仍是导致模型效果较差的一个关键问题.变量间共线性可以通过相关系数进行分析,当相关系数高于0.8,...     

Entropic criterion for model selection

Model or variable selection is usually achieved through ranking models according to the increasing order of preference. One of methods is applying Kullback–Leibler distance or relative entropy as a selection criterion. Yet that will raise two questions, why use this criterion and are there any other criteria. Besides, conventional approaches require a reference prior, which is usually difficult to get. Following the logic of inductive inference proposed by Caticha [Relative entropy and inductive inference, in: G. Erickson, Y. Zhai (Eds.), Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, AIP Conference Proceedings, vol. 707, 2004 (available from arXiv.org/abs/physics/0311093)], we show relative entropy to be a unique criterion, which requires no prior information and can be applied to different fields. We examine this criterion by considering a physical problem, simple fluids, and results are promising.     

Variational Bayesian-Based Improved Maximum Mixture Correntropy Kalman Filter for Non-Gaussian Noise

The maximum correntropy Kalman filter (MCKF) is an effective algorithm that was proposed to solve the non-Gaussian filtering problem for linear systems. Compared with the original Kalman filter (KF), the MCKF is a sub-optimal filter with Gaussian correntropy objective function, which has been demonstrated to have excellent robustness to non-Gaussian noise. However, the performance of MCKF is affected by its kernel bandwidth parameter, and a constant kernel bandwidth may lead to severe accuracy degradation in non-stationary noises. In order to solve this problem, the mixture correntropy method is further explored in this work, and an improved maximum mixture correntropy KF (IMMCKF) is proposed. By derivation, the random variables that obey Beta-Bernoulli distribution are taken as intermediate parameters, and a new hierarchical Gaussian state-space model was established. Finally, the unknown mixing probability and state estimation vector at each moment are inferred via a variational Bayesian approach, which provides an effective solution to improve the applicability of MCKFs in non-stationary noises. Performance evaluations demonstrate that the proposed filter significantly improves the existing MCKFs in non-stationary noises.     

An efficient method for model refinement in diffuse optical tomography

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a non-linear, ill-posed, boundary value and optimization problem which necessitates regularization. Also, Bayesian methods are suitable owing to measurements data are sparse and correlated. In such problems which are solved with iterative methods, for stabilization and better convergence, the solution space must be small. These constraints subject to extensive and overdetermined system of equations which model retrieving criteria specially total least squares (TLS) must to refine model error. Using TLS is limited to linear systems which is not achievable when applying traditional Bayesian methods. This paper presents an efficient method for model refinement using regularized total least squares (RTLS) for treating on linearized DOT problem, having maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator and Tikhonov regulator. This is done with combination Bayesian and regularization tools as preconditioner matrices, applying them to equations and then using RTLS to the resulting linear equations. The preconditioning matrixes are guided by patient specific information as well as a priori knowledge gained from the training set. Simulation results illustrate that proposed method improves the image reconstruction performance and localize the abnormally well.     

A Variational Bayesian Deep Network with Data Self-Screening Layer for Massive Time-Series Data Forecasting

Compared with mechanism-based modeling methods, data-driven modeling based on big data has become a popular research field in recent years because of its applicability. However, it is not always better to have more data when building a forecasting model in practical areas. Due to the noise and conflict, redundancy, and inconsistency of big time-series data, the forecasting accuracy may reduce on the contrary. This paper proposes a deep network by selecting and understanding data to improve performance. Firstly, a data self-screening layer (DSSL) with a maximal information distance coefficient (MIDC) is designed to filter input data with high correlation and low redundancy; then, a variational Bayesian gated recurrent unit (VBGRU) is used to improve the anti-noise ability and robustness of the model. Beijing’s air quality and meteorological data are conducted in a verification experiment of 24 h PM2.5 concentration forecasting, proving that the proposed model is superior to other models in accuracy.     

应用CARS和SPA算法对草莓SSC含量NIR光谱预测模型中变量及样本筛选

采用光谱技术对水果进行定量或定性分析,如何获得一个简单、有效的校正模型对后续模型的应用和维护都非常关键。以草莓内部品质近红外光谱预测为例,从关键变量和特征样本优选两方面进行研究。采用竞争性自适应重加权CARS算法对光谱变量进行初次选择,随后采用连续投影算法SPA对校正集样本进行优选,获得98个特征样本,针对优选后的变量/样本子集利用SPA算法作二次关键变量提取,获得25个关键变量。为了验证CARS算法的性能,蒙特卡罗无信息变量消除MC-UVE和连续投影算法SPA用于比较研究。CARS算法在消除无信息变量的同时可以对共线性信息进行去除。同样,为了评估SPA算法在特征样本选择中的性能,经典的Kennard-Stone算法也用于比较分析。SPA算法能够用于校正集特征样本的优选。针对最终优选后的变量/样本(25/98)子集建立PLS和MLR模型对草莓内部可溶性固形物含量SSC含量进行定量预测。结果表明,两个模型利用原始变量/样本的0.59%/65.33%的信息均能够获得比基于原始变量/样本所建模型更好的性能,且MLR模型比PLS模型性能略优,r2_pre,RMSEP和RPD分别为0.909 7,0.348 4和3.327 8。     

基于重要度的分级贝叶斯网络诊断模型研究

为了提高复杂系统故障检测和诊断的准确性,从数据的不确定性、诊断的不确定性以及特征参数选择的不确定性三方面展开研究。在贝叶斯网络解决不确定性问题优势的基础上,提出了基于重要度的分级贝叶斯网络模型。以往基于贝叶斯网络的方法无法做到系统地选择参数,建立的模型都是全模型。虽然全模型没有遗漏关键的参数,但包含了很多不必要的参数,这些多余参数不仅会对诊断造成不良影响,导致拖尾效应。仿真结果表明,提出方法可以获得更佳的故障特征,有利于提高故障识别能力,验证了模型的有效性。     

基于信息准则的局域预测法邻近点的选取方法

基于信息准则,提出了选取局域预测法中邻近点个数的定量方法. 并用此方法分析Lorenz模型生成的混沌时间序列和Santa Fe时间序列竞赛的激光数据(Data A). 实验结果表明用该方法选取邻近点的局域预测法的一步和多步预测性能较好,在满足预测精度较高的条件下,计算量较小. 关键词： 邻近点 邻域 局域预测 信息准则     

A Complex Network Model for Analyzing Railway Accidents Based on the Maximal Information Coefficient

It is an important issue to identify important influencing factors in railway accident analysis. In this paper, employing the good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships, the maximal information coefficient (MIC), which can capture a wide range of associations, a complex network model for railway accident analysis is designed in which nodes denote factors of railway accidents and edges are generated between two factors of which MIC values are larger than or equal to the dependent criterion. The variety of network structure is studied. As the increasing of the dependent criterion, the network becomes to an approximate scale-free network. Moreover, employing the proposed network, important influencing factors are identified. And we find that the annual track density-gross tonnage factor is an important factor which is a cut vertex when the dependent criterion is equal to 0.3. From the network, it is found that the railway development is unbalanced for different states which is consistent with the fact.     

基于互信息熵-近红外光谱的过程模式故障检测

近红外光谱分析在工业过程故障检测方面具有独特的优势,是一种准确且高效的方法。结合互信息熵和传统的主成分分析,对近红外光谱特征信息进行提取,通过构建过程的模式来刻画工业过程的运行状态。利用近红外光谱数据,从有机分子含氢基团振动信息中获取工业系统的过程模式,从微观分子层面探索提高工业过程故障检测准确率的有效方法,结合贝叶斯统计学习技术,提出了基于近红外光谱数据的工业过程故障检测技术。针对近红外光谱信息量丰富,谱带较宽,特征性不强的特点,首先对工业过程不同运行状态下的近红外光谱吸光度数据进行一阶导数预处理,采用主成分分析法（principal component analysis,PCA）压缩光谱数据量,扩大不同运行状态下光谱特征信息的差异性,提取光谱的内部特征信息。然后采用互信息熵（mutual information entropy,MIE）作为光谱特征信息相关性度量函数,基于最小冗余最大相关算法进一步减少光谱特征信息间的冗余并最大化光谱特征信息与类别的相关性,弥补了PCA无监督特征波长选择的不足,提出一种基于PCA-MIE的过程模式构建方法,获得的过程模式子集更紧凑更具类别表现力。再利用贝叶斯统计学习算法,根据后验概率对构建的模式子集进行决策,判别生产过程的正常状态和故障状态。由于过程模式子集结合了PCA浓聚方差的优势和互信息熵相关性测度的特征信息选择方法,蕴含了更多的近红外光谱的本质信息与内在规律,从而更能刻画工业过程的运行状态。接着,设置测试准确率TA作为评估标准,用以评价故障检测方法的性能效果。最后利用某化工厂提供的原油脱盐脱水过程近红外光谱数据对所提方法进行验证,并与传统近红外光谱特征信息提取方法PCA和MIE方法性能进行对比分析,结果表明基于PCA-MIE的过程模式故障检测方法几乎在所有维数子集上性能都优于其他两种方法,在特征维数为18维时获得最高的准确率94. 6%,证明了方法的优越性。     

Using Background Knowledge from Preceding Studies for Building a Random Forest Prediction Model: A Plasmode Simulation Study

There is an increasing interest in machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting patient outcomes, as these methods are designed to automatically discover complex data patterns. For example, the random forest (RF) algorithm is designed to identify relevant predictor variables out of a large set of candidates. In addition, researchers may also use external information for variable selection to improve model interpretability and variable selection accuracy, thereby prediction quality. However, it is unclear to which extent, if at all, RF and ML methods may benefit from external information. In this paper, we examine the usefulness of external information from prior variable selection studies that used traditional statistical modeling approaches such as the Lasso, or suboptimal methods such as univariate selection. We conducted a plasmode simulation study based on subsampling a data set from a pharmacoepidemiologic study with nearly 200,000 individuals, two binary outcomes and 1152 candidate predictor (mainly sparse binary) variables. When the scope of candidate predictors was reduced based on external knowledge RF models achieved better calibration, that is, better agreement of predictions and observed outcome rates. However, prediction quality measured by cross-entropy, AUROC or the Brier score did not improve. We recommend appraising the methodological quality of studies that serve as an external information source for future prediction model development.     

Feature Selection Combining Information Theory View and Algebraic View in the Neighborhood Decision System

Feature selection is one of the core contents of rough set theory and application. Since the reduction ability and classification performance of many feature selection algorithms based on rough set theory and its extensions are not ideal, this paper proposes a feature selection algorithm that combines the information theory view and algebraic view in the neighborhood decision system. First, the neighborhood relationship in the neighborhood rough set model is used to retain the classification information of continuous data, to study some uncertainty measures of neighborhood information entropy. Second, to fully reflect the decision ability and classification performance of the neighborhood system, the neighborhood credibility and neighborhood coverage are defined and introduced into the neighborhood joint entropy. Third, a feature selection algorithm based on neighborhood joint entropy is designed, which improves the disadvantage that most feature selection algorithms only consider information theory definition or algebraic definition. Finally, experiments and statistical analyses on nine data sets prove that the algorithm can effectively select the optimal feature subset, and the selection result can maintain or improve the classification performance of the data set.     

水声信号稀疏重构的高阶累积量波达方向估计

高阶累积量具有高斯噪声抑制和阵元扩展特性,将高阶累积量引入水声信号的方位估计中,提出了离格稀疏贝叶斯学习重构的高阶累积量测向算法。该方法利用高阶累积量对高斯噪声的自然盲性,计算阵列信号四阶累积量来滤除高斯噪声,使阵元在原来的结构上扩展了一倍;并构造出选择矩阵剔除了四阶累积量中的冗余项,能再一次的扩展阵元,得到的新观测模型具有更好的统计性能;最后利用空域稀疏性,推导出四阶累积量下的离格稀疏表示模型,采用贝叶斯学习解算出源信号的最大后验概率,实现了目标方位估计。数值仿真和海试实验数据表明,该方法在相邻声源方位间隔为4°的情况下分辨概率可达到95%以上,在信噪比大于-5 dB时目标方位估计的均方根误差在1°以内,可显著抑制背景噪声干扰,在多声源密集分布条件下也能准确、稳健的对水声目标方位进行估计。      

Generalized Correntropy Criterion-Based Performance Assessment for Non-Gaussian Stochastic Systems

Control loop performance assessment (CPA) is essential in the operation of industrial systems. In this paper, the shortcomings of existing performance assessment methods and indicators are summarized firstly, and a novel evaluation method based on generalized correntropy criterion (GCC) is proposed to evaluate the performance of non-Gaussian stochastic systems. This criterion could characterize the statistical properties of non-Gaussian random variables more fully, so it can be directly used as the assessment index. When the expected output of the given system is unknown, generalized correntropy is used to describe the similarity of two random variables in the joint space neighborhood controlled and take it as the criterion function of the identification algorithms. To estimate the performance benchmark more quickly and accurately, a hybrid-EDA (H-EDA) combined with the idea of “wading across the stream algorithm” is proposed to obtain the system parameters and disturbance noise PDF. Through the simulation of a single loop feedback control system under different noise disturbances, the effectiveness of the improved algorithm and new indexes are verified.