Decomposition of a complex fuzzy controller for the truck-and-trailer reverse parking problem

The use of fuzzy logic has, in the last twenty years, become standard practice in the field of control. The reason lies in the fuzzy logic’s ability to relatively quickly transfer uncertain experience and knowledge about the observed object’s behaviour into the process of decision making. Nevertheless, one of the biggest problems that arises when using a fuzzy approach is the large number of fuzzy rules that have to be processed in order to produce one decision (i.e. one control output). The number of rules in a fuzzy controller primarily originates from the number of input variables that are entering the decision process and one possible solution for decreasing it is to use the method of decomposition. Its main goal is to implement the equivalent control functionality with a hierarchy of simpler fuzzy controllers. Their main characteristic is a lower number of input variables, which as a consequence leads to a smaller number of fuzzy rules. In our paper we apply the decomposition approach to the classical complex control case of the Truck-and-Trailer (T&T) reverse parking control problem. In such cases the implementation of control using only one fuzzy controller is very complex and the existing solutions, in some details, even deviate from the classical fuzzy approach. Our solution is, on the other hand, based only on the uncertain knowledge about the behaviour of the T&T driver and the results achieved are even better than those achieved by using the existing solutions.     

The impact of unknown demand parameters on (R,S)-inventory control performance

For a given inventory control system and a known stationary demand pattern, it is relatively easy to calculate the safety factors needed to satisfy predetermined performance criteria. It is more or less customary to use these standard safety factors in practical situations as well. In practice, however, demand parameters are unknown, causing additional variation. Consequently, the performance of this standard approach generally stays below the desired level. Hence, the safety factors should be increased.This general phenomenon is studied here in some detail for an (R,S)-inventory control system with normal demand, using the two best-known service criteria. Simple exponential smoothing is used to estimate the unknown demand parameters. Using large simulation runs, new (constant) safety factors are found that do satisfy the given service levels.They are not suitable for practical use, however: long series of past observations usually are not available, while stationary demand is rare. Therefore, time-varying safety factors are presented that seem to perform well for normal demand with unknown parameters.     

联合订货下基于ø-散度的多产品库存鲁棒优化模型

针对多产品联合库存决策问题,在市场需求不确定条件下,建立了考虑联合订货成本的多产品库存鲁棒优化模型。针对不确定市场需求,采用一系列未知概率的离散情景进行描述,给出了基于最小最大准则的鲁棒对应模型,并证明了(s,S)库存策略的最优性。进一步,在仅知多产品市场需求历史数据基础上,采用基于ø-散度的数据驱动方法构建了满足一定置信度要求的关于未知需求概率分布的不确定集。在此基础上,为获得(s,S)库存策略的相关参数,运用拉格朗日对偶方法将所建模型等价转化为易于求解的数学规划问题。最后,通过数值计算分析了Kullback-Leibler散度和Cressie-Read散度以及不同的置信水平下的多产品库存绩效,并将其与真实分布下应用鲁棒库存策略得到的库存绩效进行对比。结果表明,需求分布信息的缺失虽然会导致一定的库存绩效损失,但损失值很小,表明基于文中方法得到的库存策略能够有效抑制需求不确定性扰动,具有良好的鲁棒性。     

Bayesian decision-making in inventory modelling

The objective of this paper is to advocate the use of Bayesianmethods in tackling decision problems with limited past data.It is assumed that a Bayesian approach is least likely to besuccessful when there is no information on which to base a meaningfulprior. Here we use a limiting, invariant, form of the conjugateprior distribution to represent this ignorance. The resultsof decisions based on Bayesian methods with this ‘non-informative’prior are compared with those which result from deriving a pointestimate for the unknown parameter. The particular context consideredhere is that of a single-period inventory model with compoundPoisson demand made up of a known demand size distribution butan unknown demand rate. The demand rate is assumed to be highenough for a normal approximation to the compound Poisson distributionto be used, in which case it is possible to analyse the behaviourdirectly. An extension to the multi-period model with zero leadtime is considered briefly. The results lend support to theuse of Bayesian methods, with or without a meaningful prior,for which the analysis and computation are no more complex thanthose required by standard methods.     

An improved method on group decision making based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized operators

Interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized operators are widely used in group decision making under uncertain environment due to its flexibility to model uncertain information. However, there is a shortcoming in the existing aggregation operators (interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy prioritized weighted average (IVIFPWA)) to deal with group decision making in some extreme situations. For example, when an expert gives an absolute negative evaluation, the operators could lead to irrational results, so that they are not effectively enough to handle group decision making. In this paper, several examples are illustrated to show the unreasonable results in some of these situations. Actually, these unreasonable cases are common for operators in dealing with product averaging, not only emerging in IVIFPWA operators. To overcome the shortcoming of these kinds of operators, an improvement of making slight adjustment on initial evaluations is provided. Numerical examples are used to show the efficiency of the improvement.     

Interactive outranking approaches for multicriteria decision-making problems with imprecise information

PROMETHEE is a powerful method, which can solve many multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problems. It involves sophisticated preference modelling techniques but requires too much a priori precise information about parameter values (such as criterion weights and thresholds). In this paper, we consider a MCDM problem where alternatives are evaluated on several conflicting criteria, and the criterion weights and/or thresholds are imprecise or unknown to the decision maker (DM). We build robust outranking relations among the alternatives in order to help the DM to rank the alternatives and select the best alternative. We propose interactive approaches based on PROMETHEE method. We develop a decision aid tool called INTOUR, which implements the developed approaches.     

Distribution Free Procedures for Some Inventory Models

Stochastic inventory models, such as continuous review models and periodic review models, require information on the lead time demand. However, information about the form of the probability distribution of the lead time demand is often limited in practice. We relax the assumption that the cumulative distribution function, say F, of the lead time demand is completely known and merely assume that the first two moments of F are known and finte. The minmax distribution free approach for the inventory model consists of finding the most unfavourable distribution for each decision variable and then minimizing over the decision variable. We solve both the continuous review model and the periodic review model with a mixture of backorders and lost sales using the minmax distribution free approach.     

Robust strategies for facility location under uncertainty

This paper considers a stochastic facility location problem in which multiple capacitated facilities serve customers with a single product, and a stockout probabilistic requirement is stated as a chance constraint. Customer demand is assumed to be uncertain and to follow either a normal or an ambiguous distribution. We study robust approximations to the problem in order to incorporate information about the random demand distribution in the best possible, computationally tractable way. We also discuss how a decision maker’s risk preferences can be incorporated in the problem through robust optimization. Finally, we present numerical experiments that illustrate the performance of the different robust formulations. Robust optimization strategies for facility location appear to have better worst-case performance than nonrobust strategies. They also outperform nonrobust strategies in terms of realized average total cost when the actual demand distributions have higher expected values than the expected values used as input to the optimization models.     

Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

Inventory control based on advanced probability theory,an application

Whenever stock is placed as a buffer between consumption and supply the decision when to replenish the stock is based on uncertain values of future demand and supply variables. Uncertainty exists about the replenishment lead time, about the number of demands and the quantities demanded during this period. We develop a new analytical expression for the reorder point, which is based on the desired service level and three distributions: the distribution of the quantity of single demands during lead time, the distribution of the lengths of time intervals between successive demands, and the distribution of the lead time itself. The distribution of lead time demand is derived from the distributions of individual demand quantities and not from the demand per period. It is not surprising that the resulting formulae for the mean and variance are different from those currently used. The theory developed is also applicable to periodic review systems. The system has been implemented at CERN and enables a significant enhancement of the service level, while reducing the average stock.     

On the Evaluation of Uncertain Courses of Action

We consider the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The fuzzy measure is introduced as a general way of representing available information about the uncertainty. It is noted that generally in uncertain environments the problem of comparing alternative courses of action is difficult because of the multiplicity of possible outcomes for any action. One approach is to convert this multiplicity of possible of outcomes associated with an alternative into a single value using a valuation function. We describe various ways of providing a valuation function when the uncertainty is represented using a fuzzy measure. We then specialize these valuation functions to the cases of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty.     

Fuzzy optimization for distribution of frozen food with imprecise times

Problems concerning the distribution routes for frozen products need to incorporate constraints that avoid breaks in the cold chain. The decision making process under uncertain environments is a common one in real logistics problems. The purpose of this study is to apply a fuzzy approach which will provide an optimal solution to the distribution of frozen food with uncertainty in its time values. A soft computing approach is used where fuzzy constraints are included in the modeling and the solution of the problem.     

A maximum entropy approach to the newsvendor problem with partial information

In this paper, we consider the newsvendor model under partial information, i.e., where the demand distribution D is partly unknown. We focus on the classical case where the retailer only knows the expectation and variance of D. The standard approach is then to determine the order quantity using conservative rules such as minimax regret or Scarf’s rule. We compute instead the most likely demand distribution in the sense of maximum entropy. We then compare the performance of the maximum entropy approach with minimax regret and Scarf’s rule on large samples of randomly drawn demand distributions. We show that the average performance of the maximum entropy approach is considerably better than either alternative, and more surprisingly, that it is in most cases a better hedge against bad results.     

Uncertain linguistic Bonferroni mean operators and their application to multiple attribute decision making

In this paper, we investigate the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems with uncertain linguistic information. Motivated by the ideal of Bonferroni mean and geometric Bonferroni mean, we develop two aggregation techniques called the uncertain linguistic Bonferroni mean (ULBM) operator and the uncertain linguistic geometric Bonferroni mean (ULGBM) operator for aggregating the uncertain linguistic information. We study its properties and discuss its special cases. For the situations where the input arguments have different importance, we then define the uncertain linguistic weighted Bonferroni mean (ULWBM) operator and the uncertain linguistic weighted geometric Bonferroni mean (ULWGBM) operator, based on which we develop two procedures for multiple attribute decision making under the uncertain linguistic environments. Finally, a practical example is given to verify the developed approach and to demonstrate its practicality and effectiveness.     

Modifications of the Hurwicz’s decision rule

The Hurwicz’s criterion is one of the classical decision rules applied in decision making under uncertainty as a tool enabling to find an optimal pure strategy both for interval and scenarios uncertainty. The interval uncertainty occurs when the decision maker knows the range of payoffs for each alternative and all values belonging to this interval are theoretically probable (the distribution of payoffs is continuous). The scenarios uncertainty takes place when the result of a decision depends on the state of nature that will finally occur and the number of possible states of nature is known and limited (the distribution of payoffs is discrete). In some specific cases the use of the Hurwicz’s criterion in the scenarios uncertainty may lead to quite illogical and unexpected results. Therefore, the author presents two new procedures combining the Hurwicz’s pessimism-optimism index with the Laplace’s approach and using an additional parameter allowing to set an appropriate width for the ranges of relatively good and bad payoffs related to a given decision. The author demonstrates both methods on the basis of an example concerning the choice of an investment project. The methods described may be used in each decision making process within which each alternative (decision, strategy) is characterized by only one criterion (or one synthetic measure).     

需求不确定下供应链间古诺博弈决策分析

通过引入区间数和心态指标将需求函数模糊化,研究了需求不确定下供应链间竞争的决策问题。首先,分别构建了分散-分散决策、集中-分散决策和集中-集中决策三种模式下的供应链间价格竞争模型;其次,分析了不同竞争模式下市场规模等变量对零售价格、顾客需求量和供应链利润的影响;最后,以两条供应链为例,进行算例分析,并在此基础上,进一步分析了心态指标、市场规模等变量对最终决策结果的影响。     

Some geometric aggregation operators based on interval intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables and their application to group decision making

With respect to multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems in which both the attribute weights and the expert weights take the form of crisp numbers, and attribute values take the form of interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables, some new group decision making analysis methods are developed. Firstly, some operational laws, expected value and accuracy function of interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic variables are introduced. Then, an interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic weighted geometric average (IVIULWGA) operator and an interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic ordered weighted geometric (IVIULOWG) operator have been developed. Furthermore, some desirable properties of the IVIULWGA operator and the IVIULOWG operator, such as commutativity, idempotency and monotonicity, have been studied, and an interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic hybrid geometric (IVIULHG) operator which generalizes both the IVIULWGA operator and the IVIULOWG operator, was developed. Based on these operators, an approach to multiple attribute group decision making with interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic information has been proposed. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approaches and to demonstrate their practicality and effectiveness.     

Selecting tolerances in chance-constrained programming: A multiple objective linear programming approach

An importance issue concerning the practical application of chance-constrained programming is the lack of a rational method for choosing risk levels or tolerances on the chance constraints. While there has also been much recent debate on the relationship, equivalence, usefulness, and other characteristics of chance-constrained programming relative to stochastic programming with recourse, this paper focuses on the problem of improving the selection of tolerances within the chance-constrained framework. An approach is presented, based on multiple objective linear programming, which allows the decision maker to be more involved in the tolerance selection process, but does not demand a priori decisions on appropriate tolerances. An example is presented which illustrates the approach.     

A stochastic programming approach for multi-site aggregate production planning

Production planning problems play a vital role in the supply chain management area, by which decision makers can determine the production loading plan—consisting of the quantity of production and the workforce level at each production plant—to fulfil market demand. This paper addresses the production planning problem with additional constraints, such as production plant preference selection. To deal with the uncertain demand data, a stochastic programming approach is proposed to determine optimal medium-term production loading plans under an uncertain environment. A set of data from a multinational lingerie company in Hong Kong is used to demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed model. An analysis of the probability distribution of economic demand assumptions is performed. The impact of unit shortage costs on the total cost is also analysed.     

基于集对分析的多种不确定偏好形式大群体决策方法

针对具有多种不确定偏好形式的多方案大群体决策问题,提出一种基于集对分析的群决策方法。将区间数、三角模糊数以及语言值三种形式的不确定偏好转换为联系数,保留了不确定偏好信息中的确定性与不确定性。提出一种区间聚类算法,在决策成员权重未知的情况下对成员进行赋权。利用加权综合联系数对大群体偏好进行集结,根据方案的集对势大小给出方案的排序。该方法避免了确定权重时的主观性,同时考虑决策信息的确定性与不确定性,提高了决策结果的可信度。通过实例分析验证了方法的有效性和实用性。