Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

Dynamical analysis of a sex-structured Chlamydia trachomatis transmission model with time delay

The effect of using time delay to model the latency period of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is explored, by designing a deterministic two-sex model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population. The resulting delay differential equation model is shown to undergo the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. This phenomenon arises due to the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. Using permanence theory, it is shown that Chlamydia will persist in the population whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. It is further shown that long latency period could induce positive (decrease disease burden) or negative (increase disease burden) population-level impact depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold quantity and some other conditions. Furthermore, this study shows that adding a time delay (to model the latency period) does not alter the main equilibrium dynamics (with respect to the effective control or persistence of the disease in the community) of the corresponding non-delayed Chlamydia transmission model considered in our earlier study Sharomi and Gumel (2009) [7].     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of an SVEIS epidemic model with partial temporary immunity and saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an SVEIS epidemic model for an infectious disease that spreads in the host population through horizontal transmission is investigated. The role that temporary immunity (natural, disease induced, vaccination induced) plays in the spread of disease, is incorporated in the model. The total host population is bounded and the incidence term is of the Holling-type II form. It is shown that the model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable which leads to the eradication of disease from population. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable in the feasible region under certain conditions. Further, the transcritical bifurcation at R₀=1 is explored by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. Further, we obtain the threshold vaccination coverage required to eradicate the disease. Finally, taking biologically relevant parametric values, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the analytical results.     

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission and time delay

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has direct mode of transmission in addition to the vector-mediated transmission. The incidence term is assumed to be of the bilinear mass-action form. We include both a baseline ODE version of the model, and, a differential-delay model with a discrete time delay. The ODE model shows that the dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀?1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region. The delay in the differential-delay model accounts for the incubation time the vectors need to become infectious. We study the effect of that delay on the stability of the equilibria. We show that the introduction of a time delay in the host-to-vector transmission term can destabilize the system and periodic solutions can arise through Hopf bifurcation.     

Mathematical model for the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis–malaria co‐infection

A mathematical model to understand the dynamics of malaria–visceral leishmaniasis co‐infection is proposed and analyzed. Results show that both diseases can be eliminated if R₀, the basic reproduction number of the co‐infection, is less than unity, and the system undergoes a backward bifurcation where an endemic equilibrium co‐exists with the disease‐free equilibrium when one of R_m or R_l, the basic reproduction numbers of malaria‐only and visceral leishmaniasis‐only, is precisely less than unity. Results also show that in the case of maximum protection against visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if malaria patients are protected from VL infection; similarly, in the case of maximum protection against malaria, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if VL and post‐kala‐azar dermal leishmaniasis patients and the recovered humans after VL are protected from malaria infection. Numerical results show that if R_m and R_l are greater than unity, then we have co‐existence of both disease at an endemic equilibrium, and malaria incidence is higher than visceral leishmaniasis incidence at steady state. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical study of a risk-structured two-group model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis, which stratifies the entire population based on risk of acquiring or transmitting infection, is designed and analyzed to gain insight into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Unlike in some of the earlier modeling studies on Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population, this study shows that the backward bifurcation phenomenon persists even if individuals who recovered from Chlamydia infection do not get re-infected. However, it is shown that the phenomenon can be removed if all the susceptible individuals are equally likely to acquire infection (i.e., for the case where the susceptible male and female populations are not stratified according to risk of acquiring infection). In such a case, the DFE of the resulting (reduced) model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and no re-infection of recovered individuals occurs. Thus, this study shows that stratifying the two-sex Chlamydia transmission model, presented in [1], according to the risk of acquiring or transmitting infection induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation regardless of whether or not the re-infection of recovered individuals occurs.     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Re-infection-induced backward bifurcation in the transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis is designed and analyzed to gain insights into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. It is further shown that the backward bifurcation dynamic is caused by the re-infection of individuals who recovered from the disease. The epidemiological implication of this result is that the classical requirement of the reproduction number being less than unity becomes only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for disease elimination. The basic model is extended to incorporate the use of treatment for infectious individuals (including those who show disease symptoms and those who do not). Rigorous analysis of the treatment model reveals that the use of treatment could have positive or negative population-level impact, depending on the sign of a certain epidemiological threshold. The treatment model is used to evaluate various treatment strategies, namely treating every infected individual showing symptoms of Chlamydia (universal strategy), treating only infectious males showing Chlamydia symptoms (male-only strategy) and treating only infectious females showing symptoms of Chlamydia (female-only strategy). Numerical simulations show that the implementation of the male-only or female-only strategy can induce an indirect benefit of saving new cases of Chlamydia infection in the opposite sex. Further, the universal strategy gives the highest reduction in the cumulative number of new cases of infection.     

Global stability of a stage-structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence

In this paper, a stage-structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence with a factor S^p is investigated. By using limit theory of differential equations and Theorem of Busenberg and van den Driessche, global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease dies out; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations support our analytical results and illustrate the effect of p on the dynamic behavior of the model.     

Global stability of delay multigroup epidemic models with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates

In this paper, we present a new delay multigroup SEIR model with group mixing and nonlinear incidence rates and investigate its global stability. We establish that the global dynamics of the models are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. It is shown that, if R₀?1, then the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease dies out; if R₀>1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable and thus the disease persists in the population. Finally, a numerical example is also discussed to illustrate the effectiveness of the results.     

Global asymptotic properties of an SEIRS model with multiple infectious stages

The paper presents a rigorous mathematical analysis of a deterministic model, which uses a standard incidence function, for the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease with an arbitrary number of distinct infectious stages. It is shown, using a linear Lyapunov function, that the model has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Further, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium when the threshold exceeds unity. The equilibrium is shown to be locally-asymptotically stable, for a special case, using a Krasnoselskii sub-linearity trick. Finally, a non-linear Lyapunov function is used to show the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium (for the special case). Numerical simulation results, using parameter values relevant to the transmission dynamics of influenza, are presented to illustrate some of the main theoretical results.     

Dynamics of a two-strain vaccination model for polio

A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of polio, the vaccine-derived polio virus (VDPV) and the wild polio virus (WPV), in a population is designed and rigorously analysed. It is shown that Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) reversion (leading to increased incidences of WPV and VDPV strains), together with the combined effect of vaccinating a fraction of the unvaccinated susceptible and missed susceptible children, could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other (with reproduction number less than unity) to extinction. In the absence of OPV reversions (leading to the co-existence of both strains in the population), it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that the model undergoes the phenomenon of competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other to extinction. Furthermore, co-existence of the two strains is feasible if their respective reproduction number are equal or approximately equal (and greater than unity).     

Global analysis of an environmental disease transmission model linking within-host and between-host dynamics

In this paper, a multi-scale mathematical model for environmentally transmitted diseases is proposed which couples the pathogen-immune interaction inside the human body with the disease transmission at the population level. The model is based on the nested approach that incorporates the infection-age-structured immunological dynamics into an epidemiological system structured by the chronological time, the infection age and the vaccination age. We conduct detailed analysis for both the within-host and between-host disease dynamics. Particularly, we derive the basic reproduction number R₀ for the between-host model and prove the uniform persistence of the system. Furthermore, using carefully constructed Lyapunov functions, we establish threshold-type results regarding the global dynamics of the between-host system: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R₀ < 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R₀ > 1. We explore the connection between the within-host and between-host dynamics through both mathematical analysis and numerical simulation. We show that the pathogen load and immune strength at the individual level contribute to the disease transmission and spread at the population level. We also find that, although the between-host transmission risk correlates positively with the within-host pathogen load, there is no simple monotonic relationship between the disease prevalence and the individual pathogen load.     

Global stability of multi-group epidemic models with distributed delays

We investigate a class of multi-group epidemic models with distributed delays. We establish that the global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. More specifically, we prove that, if R₀?1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀>1, then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and it is globally asymptotically stable. Our proof of global stability of the endemic equilibrium utilizes a graph-theoretical approach to the method of Lyapunov functionals.     

Analysis of a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence is proposed and analyzed. The equilibria and their stability are investigated. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is found that if the threshold R ₀<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if the threshold R ₀>1, the system is permanent and the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable under certain conditions.     

Global stability of multi-group SEIR epidemic models with distributed delays and nonlinear transmission

The dynamics of multi-group SEIR epidemic models with distributed and infinite delay and nonlinear transmission are investigated. We derive the basic reproduction number R₀ and establish that the global dynamics are completely determined by the values of R₀: if R₀≤1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀>1, then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. Our results contain those for single-group SEIR models with distributed and infinite delays. In the proof of global stability of the endemic equilibrium, we exploit a graph-theoretical approach to the method of Lyapunov functionals. The biological significance of the results is also discussed.     

The analysis and application of an HBV model

A mathematical model is formulated to describe the spread of hepatitis B. The stability of equilibria and persistence of disease are analyzed. The results shows that the dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproductive number ρ₀. If ρ₀ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. When ρ₀ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. Furthermore, under certain conditions, it is proved that the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive. Numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate our theoretical results. The model is applied to HBV transmission in China. The parameter values of the model are estimated based on available HBV epidemic data in China. The simulation results matches the HBV epidemic data in China approximately.     

Global and Bifurcation Analysis of an HIV Pathogenesis Model with Saturated Reverse Function

In this paper, an HIV dynamics model with the proliferation of CD4 T cells is proposed. The authors consider nonnegativity, boundedness, global asymptotic stability of the solutions and bifurcation properties of the steady states. It is proved that the virus is cleared from the host under some conditions if the basic reproduction number R_0 is less than unity. Meanwhile, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We also obtain one equilibrium is semi-stable by using center manifold theory. It is proved that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions if R_0 is greater than unity. It also is proved that the model undergoes Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium under some conditions. It is novelty that the model exhibits two famous bifurcations,backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. The model is extended to incorporate the specific Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes(CTLs) immune response. Stabilities of equilibria and Hopf bifurcation are considered accordingly. In addition, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis results are also given in paper.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.