Nonlinear Filtering of Diffusion Processes in Correlated Noise: Analysis by Separation of Variables

   Abstract. An approximation to the solution of a stochastic parabolic equation is constructed using the Galerkin approximation followed by the Wiener chaos decomposition. The result is applied to the nonlinear filtering problem for the time-homogeneous diffusion model with correlated noise. An algorithm is proposed for computing recursive approximations of the unnormalized filtering density and filter, and the errors of the approximations are estimated. Unlike most existing algorithms for nonlinear filtering, the real-time part of the algorithm does not require solving partial differential equations or evaluating integrals. The algorithm can be used for both continuous and discrete time observations. \par     

Markov chain approximations to filtering equations for reflecting diffusion processes

Herein, we consider direct Markov chain approximations to the Duncan–Mortensen–Zakai equations for nonlinear filtering problems on regular, bounded domains. For clarity of presentation, we restrict our attention to reflecting diffusion signals with symmetrizable generators. Our Markov chains are constructed by employing a wide band observation noise approximation, dividing the signal state space into cells, and utilizing an empirical measure process estimation. The upshot of our approximation is an efficient, effective algorithm for implementing such filtering problems. We prove that our approximations converge to the desired conditional distribution of the signal given the observation. Moreover, we use simulations to compare computational efficiency of this new method to the previously developed branching particle filter and interacting particle filter methods. This Markov chain method is demonstrated to outperform the two-particle filter methods on our simulated test problem, which is motivated by the fish farming industry.     

Finite approximation schemes for Lévy processes,and their application to optimal stopping problems

This paper proposes two related approximation schemes, based on a discrete grid on a finite time interval [0,T]$[0,T]$, and having a finite number of states, for a pure jump Lévy process _Lt$L_t$. The sequences of discrete processes converge to the original process, as the time interval becomes finer and the number of states grows larger, in various modes of weak and strong convergence, according to the way they are constructed. An important feature is that the filtrations generated at each stage by the approximations are sub-filtrations of the filtration generated by the continuous time Lévy process. This property is useful for applications of these results, especially to optimal stopping problems, as we illustrate with an application to American option pricing. The rates of convergence of the discrete approximations to the underlying continuous time process are assessed in terms of a “complexity” measure for the option pricing algorithm.     

Wong-Zakai approximations for stochastic differential equations

The aim of this paper is to give a wide introduction to approximation concepts in the theory of stochastic differential equations. The paper is principally concerned with Zong-Zakai approximations. Our aim is to fill a gap in the literature caused by the complete lack of monographs on such approximation methods for stochastic differential equations; this will be the objective of the author's forthcoming book. First, we briefly review the currently-known approximation results for finite- and infinite-dimensional equations. Then the author's results are preceded by the introduction of two new forms of correction terms in infinite dimensions appearing in the Wong-Zakai approximations. Finally, these results are divided into four parts: for stochastic delay equations, for semilinear and nonlinear stochastic equations in abstract spaces, and for the Navier-Stokes equations. We emphasize in this paper results rather than proofs. Some applications are indicated.The author's research was partially supported by KBN grant No. 2 P301 052 03.     

A discontinuous mixed covolume method for elliptic problems

We develop a discontinuous mixed covolume method for elliptic problems on triangular meshes. An optimal error estimate for the approximation of velocity is obtained in a mesh-dependent norm. First-order L²-error estimates are derived for the approximations of both velocity and pressure.     

An approximation theory for the identification of nonlinear volterra equations

An abstract approximation framework and convergence theory for Galerkin approximations to inverse problems involving nonlinear Volterra integral equations is developed. The approach relies on the theory of m-accretive operators in Banach spaces. An application to heat flow in materials with memory is also discussed.     

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

Abstract. This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature.     

Nonlinear Methods of Approximation

Abstract. Our main interest in this paper is nonlinear approximation. The basic idea behind nonlinear approximation is that the elements used in the approximation do not come from a fixed linear space but are allowed to depend on the function being approximated. While the scope of this paper is mostly theoretical, we should note that this form of approximation appears in many numerical applications such as adaptive PDE solvers, compression of images and signals, statistical classification, and so on. The standard problem in this regard is the problem of m -term approximation where one fixes a basis and looks to approximate a target function by a linear combination of m terms of the basis. When the basis is a wavelet basis or a basis of other waveforms, then this type of approximation is the starting point for compression algorithms. We are interested in the quantitative aspects of this type of approximation. Namely, we want to understand the properties (usually smoothness) of the function which govern its rate of approximation in some given norm (or metric). We are also interested in stable algorithms for finding good or near best approximations using m terms. Some of our earlier work has introduced and analyzed such algorithms. More recently, there has emerged another more complicated form of nonlinear approximation which we call highly nonlinear approximation. It takes many forms but has the basic ingredient that a basis is replaced by a larger system of functions that is usually redundant. Some types of approximation that fall into this general category are mathematical frames, adaptive pursuit (or greedy algorithms), and adaptive basis selection. Redundancy on the one hand offers much promise for greater efficiency in terms of approximation rate, but on the other hand gives rise to highly nontrivial theoretical and practical problems. With this motivation, our recent work and the current activity focuses on nonlinear approximation both in the classical form of m -term approximation (where several important problems remain unsolved) and in the form of highly nonlinear approximation where a theory is only now emerging.     

Filtering of a Markov Jump Process with Counting Observations

This paper concerns the filtering of an R ^d -valued Markov pure jump process when only the total number of jumps are observed. Strong and weak uniqueness for the solutions of the filtering equations are discussed. Accepted 12 November 1999     

A simulation approach to optimal stopping under partial information

We study the numerical solution of nonlinear partially observed optimal stopping problems. The system state is taken to be a multi-dimensional diffusion and drives the drift of the observation process, which is another multi-dimensional diffusion with correlated noise. Such models where the controller is not fully aware of her environment are of interest in applied probability and financial mathematics. We propose a new approximate numerical algorithm based on the particle filtering and regression Monte Carlo methods. The algorithm maintains a continuous state space and yields an integrated approach to the filtering and control sub-problems. Our approach is entirely simulation-based and therefore allows for a robust implementation with respect to model specification. We carry out the error analysis of our scheme and illustrate with several computational examples. An extension to discretely observed stochastic volatility models is also considered.     

The Distribution of a Sum of Independent Binomial Random Variables

The distribution of a sum S of independent binomial random variables, each with different success probabilities, is discussed. An efficient algorithm is given to calculate the exact distribution by convolution. Two approximations are examined, one based on a method of Kolmogorov, and another based on fitting a distribution from the Pearson family. The Kolmogorov approximation is given as an algorithm, with a worked example. The Kolmogorov and Pearson approximations are compared for several given sets of binomials with different sample sizes and probabilities. Other methods of approximation are discussed and some compared numerically. The Kolmogorov approximation is found to be extremely accurate, and the Pearson curve approximation useful if extreme accuracy is not required.     

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

   Abstract. This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature.     

Nonlinear approximation using Gaussian kernels

It is well known that nonlinear approximation has an advantage over linear schemes in the sense that it provides comparable approximation rates to those of the linear schemes, but to a larger class of approximands. This was established for spline approximations and for wavelet approximations, and more recently by DeVore and Ron (in press) [2] for homogeneous radial basis function (surface spline) approximations. However, no such results are known for the Gaussian function, the preferred kernel in machine learning and several engineering problems. We introduce and analyze in this paper a new algorithm for approximating functions using translates of Gaussian functions with varying tension parameters. At heart it employs the strategy for nonlinear approximation of DeVore-Ron, but it selects kernels by a method that is not straightforward. The crux of the difficulty lies in the necessity to vary the tension parameter in the Gaussian function spatially according to local information about the approximand: error analysis of Gaussian approximation schemes with varying tension are, by and large, an elusive target for approximators. We show that our algorithm is suitably optimal in the sense that it provides approximation rates similar to other established nonlinear methodologies like spline and wavelet approximations. As expected and desired, the approximation rates can be as high as needed and are essentially saturated only by the smoothness of the approximand.     

Large Deviation Principle for Optimal Filtering

Abstract. We derive a large deviation principle for the optimal filter where the signal and the observation processes take values in conuclear spaces. The approach follows from the framework established by the author in an earlier paper. The key is the verification of the exponential tightness for the optimal filtering process and the exponential continuity of the coefficients in the Zakai equation.     

Asymptotic Expansion in Nonlinear Filtering with Homogenization

The problem of nonlinear filtering is studied for a class of diffusions whose statistics depend periodically on the state and a small parameter ε . Our purpose here is to show that, under some assumptions, the conditional density of the filtering problem admits an asymptotic expansion (see [2]). Accepted 9 September 1999     

Large Deviation Principle for Optimal Filtering

   Abstract. We derive a large deviation principle for the optimal filter where the signal and the observation processes take values in conuclear spaces. The approach follows from the framework established by the author in an earlier paper. The key is the verification of the exponential tightness for the optimal filtering process and the exponential continuity of the coefficients in the Zakai equation.     

Paley-Wiener Approximations and Multiscale Approximations in Sobolev and Besov Spaces on Manifolds

An approximation theory by bandlimited functions (≡ Paley-Wiener functions) on Riemannian manifolds of bounded geometry is developed. Based on this theory multiscale approximations to smooth functions in Sobolev and Besov spaces on manifolds are obtained. The results have immediate applications to the filtering, denoising and approximation and compression of functions on manifolds. There exists applications to problems arising in data dimension reduction, image processing, computer graphics, visualization and learning theory.      

Exact Cumulant Calculations for Pearson X2 and Zelterman Statistics for r-Way Contingency Tables

Abstract

We present a computer algebra procedure that calculates exact cumulants for Pearson X ² and Zelterman statistics for r-way contingency tables. The algorithm is an example of how an overwhelming algebraic problem can be solved neatly through computer implementation by emulating tactics that one uses by hand. For inference purposes the cumulants may be used to assess chi-square approximations or to improve this approximation via Edgeworth expansions. Edgeworth approximations are compared to the computerintensive techniques of Mehta and Patel that provide exact and arbitrarily close results. Comparisons to approximations that utilize the gamma distribution (Mielke and Berry) are also made.     

An Approximation for the Zakai Equation

In this article we consider a polygonal approximation to the unnormalized conditional measure of a filtering problem, which is the solution of the Zakai stochastic differential equation on measure space. An estimate of the convergence rate based on a distance which is equivalent to the weak convergence topology is derived. We also study the density of the unnormalized conditional measure, which is the solution of the Zakai stochastic partial differential equation. An estimate of the convergence rate is also given in this case. 60F25, 60H10.} Accepted 23 April 2001. Online publication 14 August 2001.     

An application of Taylor series in the approximation of solutions to stochastic differential equations with time-dependent delay

The subject of this paper is the analytic approximation method for solving stochastic differential equations with time-dependent delay. Approximate equations are defined on equidistant partitions of the time interval, and their coefficients are Taylor approximations of the coefficients of the initial equation. It will be shown, without making any restrictive assumption for the delay function, that the approximate solutions converge in L^p-norm and with probability 1 to the solution of the initial equation. Also, the rate of the L^p convergence increases when the degrees in the Taylor approximations increase, analogously to what is found in real analysis. At the end, a procedure will be presented which allows the application of this method, with the assumption of continuity of the delay function.