基于动态规划的高阶隐马氏模型推广的Viterbi算法

首先通过Hadar等价变换方法将高阶隐马氏模型转换为与之等价的一阶向量值隐马氏模型,然后利用动态规划原理建立了一阶向量值隐马氏模型的Viterbi算法,最后通过高阶隐马氏模型和一阶向量值隐马氏模型之间的等价关系建立了高阶隐马氏模型基于动态规划推广的Viterbi算法．研究结果在一定程度上推广了几乎所有隐马氏模型文献中所涉及到的解码问题的Viterbi算法,从而进一步丰富和发展了高阶隐马氏模型的算法理论．     

Fuzzy-2D-HMMS算法及其收敛性

通过对Dat Tran和Michael Wagner等提出的FCM-FE-HMMS算法研究,并把它与2维隐马氏模型联系起来,提出了Fuzzy-2D-HMMS算法,得出在给定初值的情况下该算法将收敛到一个局部最优解.     

经2状态马氏修正的Poisson过程的极大似然估计

近年来。隐马氏模型成为研究相依随机变量的一个十分有用的工具。应用过程中的一个很重要的问题是如何对隐马氏模型的参数进行估计。一般使用的方法是将连续时间隐马氏模型的问题转化为离散时间隐马氏模型的问题来讨论。本文用此方法讨论一类连续时间隐马氏模型——状态个数为2的经马氏链修正的Poisson过程的极大似然估计及其算法。此类模型被广泛用来对复杂通信网络的通信流进行建模。     

无界报酬非时齐折扣马氏决策模型

在文献[1]—[3]中在各自的条件下,讨论过非时齐折扣马氏决策模型及其ε(≥0)最优策略存在的条件.在文献[4],文献[5]中,在状态和行动集都是可数的条件下,讨论了具有绝对平均相对有界的无界报酬的时齐折扣马氏决策模型.本文在状态集仍为可数,行动集为任意的条件下,建立与[4]相应的非时齐的折扣马氏决策模型;给出模型的有限阶段逼近和建立最优方程;证明了ε(>0)最优马氏策略的存在性和行动集为有限集时最优     

剖面隐马氏模型训练算法的改进

利用剖面隐马氏模型获得多序列联配，一般需要经过初始化、训练、联配三个过程．然而，目前广泛采用的Baum—welch训练算法假设各条可观察序列互相独立，这与实际情况有所不符．本文对剖面隐马氏模型，给出可观察序列在互相不独立情况下的改进Baum—wlelch算法，在可观察序列两种特殊情况下（互相独立和一致依赖），得到了改进算法的具体表达式，讨论了一般情况下权重的选取方法．最后通过一个具体的蛋白质家族的多序列联配来说明改进算法的效果．     

具有摄动的两类马氏决策规则

在状态空间和行动集均有限的条件下,[1-5]讨论了时间离散的,平稳的马氏决策规划的摄动模型,其中,[1,3,4]讨论了单摄动模型,[5]讨论了具有加权准则的摄动模型,[6,7]讨论了时间离散的,平稳的马氏报酬过程的摄动模型,但[6,7]仅考虑了摄动对最优值的影响,而没有考虑摄动对最优策略的影响,本文将讨论具有摄动的非平衡平均马氏均策规划和连续时间折扣马氏决策规划。     

GI／G／1排队系统的队长和等待时间的瞬时分布

本是[1，2]的继续,在本中利用马氏骨架过程给出了GI／G／1排队系统的队长的瞬时分布的另一新的计算方法和等待时间的计算方法。     

有邻集上的一般状态的整体马氏场

在[1]、[2],[3]中,分别就有邻集上的一般状态的马氏性进行了讨论,引进了马氏场,完全马氏场等基本概念,并且研究了它们的存在性及唯一性,以及它们之间的关系。但在[1]、[2]、[3]中所引进的马氏场只是一种局部马尔可夫性。本文主要是在有邻集上引进整体马尔可夫性的概念,并研究整体马尔可夫性与局部马尔可夫性之间的关系,并指出在树上,整体马氏场与完全马氏场等价。     

一类最优投资随机控制模型的马氏链算法

现代金融经济中的很多问题可以构建成随机控制模型,而随机控制的求解却存在一定的困难.马氏链算法应该是一种有效的求解随机控制问题的数值方法.本文以Claus Munk的工作为基础,针对一类最优投资模型,具体确定了马氏链的转移矩阵并证明其满足算法收敛条件,并用MATLAB语言编成一个程序实现.     

约束折扣半马氏决策规划

本文研究约束折扣半马氏决策规划问题，即在一折扣期望费用约束下，使折扣期望报酬达最大的约束最优问题，假设状态集可数，行动集为紧的非空Ｂｏｒｅｌ集，本文给出了ｐ－约束最优策略的充要条件，证明了在适当的假设条件下必存在ｐ－约束最优策略。     

HMM-based quantized dissipative control for 2-D Markov jump systems

In this paper, the dissipative quantized control problem is addressed for Markov jump two-dimensional systems based on Roesser model, in which both asynchronous phenomenon and signal quantization between system modes and controller modes are taken into consideration simultaneously. Moreover, the hidden Markov model (HMM) is adopted to tackle such an asynchronous phenomenon. The principal goal is to devise a state feedback controller, which guarantees that the established closed-loop system achieves asymptotic mean square stability as well as satisfies a prescribed extended dissipative property. Drawing support from Lyapunov function approach and inequality technique, some less conservative criteria ensuring the implementability of the desired controller are derived. Ultimately, the availability and practicability of the developed results are certified through a simulation example.     

Generalisation of the Viterbi algorithm

The Viterbi algorithm, derived using dynamic programming techniques,is a maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding method which was developedin the electrical engineering literature to be used in the analysisof hidden Markov models (HMMs). Given a particular HMM, theoriginal algorithm recovers the MAP state sequence underlyingany observation sequence generated from that model. This paperintroduces a generalization of the algorithm to recover, forarbitrary L, the top L most probable state sequences, with specialreference to its use in the area of automatic speech recognition.     

Asymptotic risks of Viterbi segmentation

We consider the maximum likelihood (Viterbi) alignment of a hidden Markov model (HMM). In an HMM, the underlying Markov chain is usually hidden and the Viterbi alignment is often used as the estimate of it. This approach will be referred to as the Viterbi segmentation. The goodness of the Viterbi segmentation can be measured by several risks. In this paper, we prove the existence of asymptotic risks. Being independent of data, the asymptotic risks can be considered as the characteristics of the model that illustrate the long-run behavior of the Viterbi segmentation.     

On approximation of smoothing probabilities for hidden Markov models

We consider the smoothing probabilities of hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that under fairly general conditions for HMM, the exponential forgetting still holds, and the smoothing probabilities can be well approximated with the ones of double-sided HMM. This makes it possible to use ergodic theorems. As an application we consider the pointwise maximum a posteriori segmentation, and show that the corresponding risks converge.     

Filtering of a Multi-Dimension Stochastic Volatility Model

In this article, we study a stochastic volatility model for a class of risky assets. We assume that the volatilities of the assets are driven by a common state of economy, which is unobservable and represented by a hidden Markov chain. Under this hidden Markov model (HMM), we develop recursively computable filtering equations for certain functionals of the chain. Expectation maximization (EM) parameter estimation is then used. Applications to an optimal asset allocation problem with mean-variance utility are given.     

基于HMM的CpG岛位置判别

隐马尔科夫过程是20世纪70年代提出来的一种统计方法,以前主要用于语音识别,1989年Churchill将其引入计算生物学,目前HMM是生物信息学中应用比较广泛的统计方法。本文对马尔科夫过程和HMM进行了简明扼要的描述,并对其在CpG岛位置判别中的应用做了概括介绍。     

Interactive hidden Markov models and their applications

^** Email: wching{at}hkusua.hku.hk In this paper, we propose an Interactive hidden Markov model(IHMM). In a traditional HMM, the observable states are affecteddirectly by the hidden states, but not vice versa. In the proposedIHMM, the transitions of hidden states depend on the observablestates. We also develop an efficient estimation method for themodel parameters. Numerical examples on the sales demand dataand economic data are given to demonstrate the applicabilityof the model.     

A model for real-time failure prognosis based on hidden Markov model and belief rule base

As one of most important aspects of condition-based maintenance (CBM), failure prognosis has attracted an increasing attention with the growing demand for higher operational efficiency and safety in industrial systems. Currently there are no effective methods which can predict a hidden failure of a system real-time when there exist influences from the changes of environmental factors and there is no such an accurate mathematical model for the system prognosis due to its intrinsic complexity and operating in potentially uncertain environment. Therefore, this paper focuses on developing a new hidden Markov model (HMM) based method which can deal with the problem. Although an accurate model between environmental factors and a failure process is difficult to obtain, some expert knowledge can be collected and represented by a belief rule base (BRB) which is an expert system in fact. As such, combining the HMM with the BRB, a new prognosis model is proposed to predict the hidden failure real-time even when there are influences from the changes of environmental factors. In the proposed model, the HMM is used to capture the relationships between the hidden failure and monitored observations of a system. The BRB is used to model the relationships between the environmental factors and the transition probabilities among the hidden states of the system including the hidden failure, which is the main contribution of this paper. Moreover, a recursive algorithm for online updating the prognosis model is developed. An experimental case study is examined to demonstrate the implementation and potential applications of the proposed real-time failure prognosis method.     

二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义及等价性质

隐马氏模型作为一种具有双重随机过程的统计模型,具有可靠的概率统计理论基础和强有力的数学结构,已被广泛应用于语音识别、生物序列分析、金融数据分析等领域.由于传统的一阶隐马氏模型无法表示更远状态距离间的依赖关系,就可能会忽略很多有用的统计特征,故有人提出二阶隐马氏模型的概念,但此概念并不严格.本文给出二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的严格定义,并研究了二阶离散隐马尔科夫模型的两个等价性质.     

An S-Plus Implementation of Hidden Markov Models in Continuous Time

Abstract

Hidden Markov models (HMM) can be applied to the study of time varying unobserved categorical variables for which only indirect measurements are available. An S-Plus module to fit HMMs in continuous time to this type of longitudinal data is presented. Covariates affecting the transition intensities of the hidden Markov process or the conditional distribution of the measured response (given the hidden states of the process) are handled under a generalized regression framework. Users can provide C subroutines specifying the parameterization of the model to adapt the software to a wide variety of data types. HMM analysis using the S-Plus module is illustrated on a dataset from a prospective study of human papillomavirus infection in young women and on simulated data.