COMBINING SOCIAL CAPITAL AND TECHNOLOGY FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE

In water‐scarce regions of the world, water‐saving technology adoption augments farm productivity. But so does social capital. In this paper, the issue of ensuring livelihood for farmers through the combined use of social capital and water‐saving technology is modeled in the context of repeated droughts. The model presented here derives optimal resource conservation and accumulation strategies when the farmer must ensure minimum consumption during a set of repeated drought events in the future. Findings indicate that the path to drought resilience presents a complex trade‐off between accumulating one form of capital over another and is influenced by farmers’ wealth and water endowments, level of risk associated with the repeated droughts and the duration of the repeated drought event that the farmer plans to survive. A higher risk of repeated droughts leads to an increase in groundwater conservation efforts but delays technology adoption. Lower water endowments may also delay adoption and reduce social capital, however, a lower social capital or a slow rate of its growth is not a hindrance to adopting water‐saving technology earlier. Finally, social capital evolves to higher levels when farmer is simultaneously faced with a higher level of risks and a longer span of drought events.     

DROUGHT RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS,LAND USE DYNAMICS,AND RISK PERCEPTION

Abstract Sustained droughts coupled with increasing pressure from urbanization severely test the ability of farmers to continue in agriculture. Understanding farmers' resilience to such pressures is increasingly becoming a significant policy concern. In this paper, a new measure of resilience to severe and sustained droughts in agriculture is derived as the ability to continue farming by saving and carrying forward water through the adoption of water efficient technology. In addition, the role of behavioral factors—such as subjective risk perception over the probability of droughts, of the probability of land getting urbanized, and of resistance to revising beliefs over water scarcity situation—in determining farmers' resilience to droughts is explored. Findings highlight the key role played by behavioral factors in influencing the decision to adopt when the economic factors, such as the price of water, do not capture the true opportunity costs of water. The range of available technological options is found to be crucial too, as marginal improvements in technology do not encourage adoption. An empirical application to the case of lettuce farming in Western Australia reveals that in the presence of speculative benefits from land rezoning, technological adoption is done only for enhancing profits in agriculture and not for improving resilience to droughts. Land rezoning possibilities may further distort technology adoption decisions, thereby, reducing resilience to droughts.     

A MATHEMATICAL REVIEW OF RESILIENCE IN ECOLOGY

Rising interest in the resilience of ecological systems has spawned diverse interpretations of the term's precise meaning, particularly in the context of resilience quantification. The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first aim is to use the language of dynamical systems to organize and scrutinize existing resilience definitions within a unified framework. The second aim is to provide an introduction for mathematicians to the ecological concept of resilience, a potential area for expanded quantitative research. To frame the discussion of resilience in dynamical systems terms, a model consisting of ordinary differential equations is assumed to represent the ecological system. The question “resilience of what to what?” posed by Carpenter et al. [2001] informs two broad categories of definitions, based on resilience to state variable perturbations and to parameter changes, respectively. Definitions of resilience to state variable perturbations include measures of basin size (relevant to one‐time perturbations) and basin steepness (relevant to repeated perturbations). Resilience to parameter changes has been quantified by viewing parameters as state variables but has also considered the reversibility of parameter shifts. Quantifying this reversibility and fully describing how recovery rates determine resilience to repeated state‐space perturbations emerge as two opportunities for mathematics research.     

基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量及优化

低轨卫星通信网络的抗毁性是描述网络安全可靠的有效工具,在网络体系结构设计和路由策略等领域得到了广泛的应用。根据低轨卫星通信网络中卫星在轨道平面内移动,需要不断进行切换的特点,从建立抗毁性测度模型以及网络抗毁性优化两个角度来评估和提高网络抗毁性,提出一种基于韧性度的低轨卫星通信网络抗毁性度量方法。通过对移动模型以及切换模型的结构分析,对每种结构以一定概率出现的低轨卫星通信网络,应用韧性度函数,求得网络在某个时刻及某一段时间段内的抗毁性,并针对切换模型的不足之处进行优化,用赋权韧性度来体现优化的效果,得到了优化后的网络抗毁性。以铱星系统为应用实例进行仿真,结果表明:任意时刻网络的抗毁性跟拓扑结构的韧性度值有关,并且是一种线性关系,即随着韧性度的增加,其抗毁性也增加。通过对铱星通信系统切换模型的优化,网络的抗毁性与平均抗毁性都得到了提升,说明本文所构建模型的有效性和实用性。     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMAL WATER ALLOCATION DECISION TOOL FOR THE MAJOR CROPS DURING THE WATER DEFICIT PERIOD IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES

ABSTRACT. We developed a dynamic economic model to optimize irrigation water allocations during water deficit periods for three major crops grown in the humid southeastern United States. Analysis involved the use of crop simulation models to capture (a) the yield water relationship and (b) soil moisture dynamics from one week to another week. A hy‐drological model was used to find the water supply; combinations of hydrological and simulation models were used to find the optimal water allocation during each week in corn, cotton and peanuts. Results indicated that farmers should irrigate the most valuable crop first (peanuts) before applying water to other crops (corn and cotton). Results also showed that, because of restriction on total water supply, an increase in crop acreage did not increase the net revenue of the farm in a proportionate amount. Results should provide guidelines to water managers, engineers, policy makers, and farmers regarding an optimal amount of water allocation that will maximize net returns when water shortage is a serious concern.     

基于可靠性弹性指标的系统弹性度量方法

为深入研究系统弹性问题,首先分析系统中不同节点和边的可靠性弹性指标。通过引入节点弹性与边弹性,并考虑节点弹性与边弹性二者的联系以及对系统弹性的影响,建立了能够反映系统拓扑结构变化的弹性度量方法模型。最后,在对弹性度量方法的验证环节中,引入了具有分层特性的交通系统,按照所述弹性度量方法对分层交通系统中的节点弹性以及边弹性进行了分析,发现该种分层交通系统的整体弹性程度一般,任何小的干扰或者故障都有可能造成该交通系统拥堵或瘫痪。     

轨道交通产业全产业链的韧性-脆弱性研究

首先,论述了韧性-脆弱性理论,界定了韧性-脆弱性的内涵．其次,分析了全产业链的产业韧性-脆弱性的形成机理,包括全产业链韧性-脆弱性和轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性两个概念的界定．第三,构建了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价指标,内部评价指标来自于企业管理水平等5个影响因子,外部评价指标来自于资源禀赋等3个影响因子．第四,实证分析了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价,得出8个指标分别影响该产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的情况是：企业规模、技术密集度、交通成本和对外开发程度这4个指标的影响显著,劳动力成本对产业影响程度不大,消费购买力和专利申请数及政策支持影响不显著．最后,从提高产业技术创新能力等5个方面,提出缓解轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的对策建议．     

Groundwater management: Waiting for a drought*

In this article we present a stylized model for optimal management of an unconfined groundwater resource when the threat of drought exists. The drought is modeled as a stochastic event that hits at an uncertain date and two benchmark management policies are investigated: (a) A policy of optimal dynamic management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) an economically optimal policy that accounts for the threat of a drought. We show that the optimal predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of groundwater under policy b is larger than that under policy (a) Furthermore, we show that an increase in the probability of a drought gives rise to two counteracting effects: One in the direction of a larger predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size (a recovery effect) and one in the direction of a lower predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock (an extinction effect). We find that the recovery effect dominates the extinction effect. Recommendations for Resource Managers: We analyze two groundwater extraction policies that can be used when a threat of drought exists: (a) Dynamic optimal management ignoring the threat of drought; and (b) dynamic optimal management taking the threat of drought into account. We show that the predrought steady‐state equilibrium stock size of water should be larger under the policy (b) than under policy (a). This conclusion has three implications for resource managers:

• Current groundwater management should take future extraction possibilities into account.

• A resource manager ought to take the threat of drought into account in groundwater management.

• A buffer stock of water should be built‐up before the drought to be drawn upon during the event.

     

Practical Extreme Value Modelling of Hydrological Floods and Droughts: A Case Study

Estimation of flood and drought frequencies is important for reservoir design and management, river pollution, ecology and drinking water supply. Through an example based on daily streamflow observations, we introduce a stepwise procedure for estimating quantiles of the hydrological extremes floods and droughts. We fit the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution by the method of block maxima and the generalised Pareto (GP) distribution by applying the peak over threshold method. Maximum likelihood, penalized maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments are used for parameter estimation. We incorporate trends and seasonal variation in the models instead of splitting the data, and investigate how the observed number of extreme events, the chosen statistical model, and the parameter estimation method effect parameter estimates and quantiles. We find that a seasonal variation should be included in the GEV distribution fitting for floods using block sizes less than one year. When modelling droughts, block sizes of one year or less are not recommended as significant model bias becomes visible. We conclude that the different characteristics of floods and droughts influence the choices made in the extreme value modelling within a common inferential strategy.This revised version was published online in March 2005 with corrections to the cover date.     

Connecting a population dynamic model with a multi-period location-allocation problem for post-disaster relief operations

In this study, we propose a mathematical model and heuristics for solving a multi-period location-allocation problem in post-disaster operations, which takes into account the impact of distribution over the population. Logistics restrictions such as human and financial resources are considered. In addition, a brief review on resilience system models is provided, as well as their connection with quantitative models for post-disaster relief operations. In particular, we highlight how one can improve resilience by means of OR/MS strategies. Then, a simpler resilience schema is proposed, which better reflects an active system for providing humanitarian aid in post-disaster operations, similar to the model focused in this work. The proposed model is non-linear and solved by a decomposition approach: the master level problem is addressed by a non-linear solver, while the slave subproblem is treated as a black-box coupling heuristics and a Variable Neighborhood Descent local search. Computational experiments have been done using several scenarios, and real data from Belo Horizonte city in Brazil.     

A mathematical programming model applied to the study of water markets within the Spanish agricultural sector

Spanish irrigated agriculture uses about 80% of all the nation's available water resources. The need to increase the economic efficiency of current uses of water in the agricultural sector is perceived as the top priority of the country's national water policy. In Spain surface water is centrally allocated among competing users based on allocation criteria dictated by the Water Law. The complete absence of price or market signals is a major obstacle to induce irrigators to use water more efficiently. Water markets within the agricultural sector is a promising, though scarcely analyzed in Spain, solution to increase its economic efficiency. This research is an attempt to evaluate probable water transfers among farmers and irrigation districts as well as water price equilibria resulting from different water market arrangements. Three interconnected mathematical programming models permit the simulation of water use at the farm level and water market arrangements in the Guadalquivir Valley (Spain). Results show that water markets would be highly dependent on the level of transaction costs and on the relative reductions of water allotments due to nonoverlapping drought cycles among water districts.     

面向韧性提升的相互依赖关键基础设施网络灾后修复模型研究

科学合理制定相互依赖关键基础设施网络(Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Network, ICINs)遭灾后毁坏组件的修复计划是其安全管理的至关重要内容。本文首先明确了ICINs的韧性测度,分析了其灾后修复策略;然后基于网路流理论,以最大化ICINs的韧性为目标,构建了在有限灾后修复资源约束下,ICINs的灾后修复任务选择与调度的混合整数规划模型,并设计了遗传算法进行求解;最后通过不同规模的用例实验对模型和遗传算法进行了测试。研究表明:(1)该模型具有解决相关问题的可行性与有效性;(2)设计的遗传算法能获得质量较高的满意解,且对于大规模问题,遗传算法的求解时间与求解结果优于Cplex软件;(3)将网络之间的功能与空间相互依赖同时纳入模型中,能使ICINs的韧性达到更高。研究可为ICINs的灾后修复决策提供辅助。     

Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria

Droughts pose a significant challenge to farmers, insurers as well as governments around the world and the situation is expected to worsen in the future due to climate change. We present a large scale drought risk assessment approach that can be used for current and future risk management purposes. Our suggested methodology is a combination of a large scale agricultural computational modelling -, extreme value-, as well as copula approach to upscale local crop yield risks to the national scale. We show that combining regional probabilistic estimates will significantly underestimate losses if the dependencies between regions during drought events are not taken explicitly into account. Among the many ways to use these results it is shown how it enables the assessment of current and future costs of subsidized drought insurance in Austria.

     

山西省农民家庭消费水平和结构分析

本文利用统计计量学方法对山西省农民家庭消费水平和消费结构的变化及原因进行了实证分析。建立了山西省农民人均消费的消费函数和山西省农民总消费支出与食品、衣着、住房、日用品、燃料及文化生活服务支出的关系模型，并通过模型分析解释了农民的消费结构，也为决策者提供一些有效的参考资料。     

A serial inventory system with supplier selection and order quantity allocation

Given the prevalence of both supplier selection and inventory control problems in supply chain management, this article addresses these problems simultaneously by developing a mathematical model for a serial system. This model determines an optimal inventory policy that coordinates the transfer of items between consecutive stages of the system while properly allocating orders to selected suppliers in stage 1. In addition, a lower bound on the minimum total cost per time unit is obtained and a 98% effective power-of-two (POT) inventory policy is derived for the system under consideration. This POT algorithm is advantageous since it is simple to compute and yields near optimal solutions.     

面向供应恢复时效性的弹性分销网络研究

关于供应链的弹性,供应能力恢复时效性的重要程度丝毫不亚于供应能力的恢复程度。本文研究了面向供应恢复时效性的弹性分销网络设计问题。考虑一个三级分销网络,其中各分销中心互为各自的备用分销中心。当一个分销中心因发生失效事件而不能接受制造商的供货时,制造商通过其他分销中心向失效的分销中心供货。分销中心需要保持一定量的应急库存以满足在应急供应到达之前的顾客需求。针对该问题建立了混合整数规划模型。该模型包含的大M约束使得直接使用优化软件求解需要很长的计算时间,并对计算平台的硬件配置有较高要求。为了更高效地求解该模型,提出了改进的MILP分解算法。通过对比实验,证明了所提算法的效率和有效性。进行了模型的敏感性分析,研究了各项参数对分销网络结构和成本的影响。     

基于供应链视角的政府扶贫效率研究

在电商扶贫中,政府常采用农业技术推广、政府采购、投入补贴三种农业帮扶模式,何种方式更有效是一个非常重要的问题。本文基于供应链视角,使用主从博弈模型对比分析供应链成员的决策行为,之后从农户收益最大化角度分析政府扶贫的效率,并讨论应用情景。结果表明:政府进行基础设施建设与农业帮扶均可提高农户收入;消费者的扶贫偏好会增加农产品价格与农户利润,且能够提高三种帮扶模式的效率;农户投入成本较小时,投入补贴模式扶贫效率最高,而农技推广与政府采购模式更稳定,在农户投入成本较高时更有效;政府资金有限时,投入补贴模式效率最高,当资金量中等时,农技推广模式效率最高,若资金比较充裕,则政府采购模式较为有效。     

Discrete time model for two-machine one-buffer transfer lines with restart policy

The paper deals with analytical modeling of transfer lines consisting of two machines decoupled by one finite buffer. In particular, the case in which a control policy (referred as “restart policy”) aiming to reduce the blocking frequency of the first machine is addressed. Such a policy consists of forcing the first machine to remain idle (it cannot process parts) each time the buffer gets full until it empties again. This specific behavior can be found in a number of industrial production systems, especially when some machines are affected by outage costs when stops occur. The two-machine one-buffer line is here modeled as a discrete time Markov process and the two machines are characterized by the same operation time. The analytical solution of the model is obtained and mathematical expressions of the most important performance measures are provided. Some significant remarks about the effect of the proposed restart policy on the behavior of the system are also pointed out.     

Studying the sensitivity of pollutants’ concentrations caused by variations of chemical rates

A systematic procedure for sensitivity analysis of a case study in the area of air pollution modeling has been performed. Contemporary mathematical models should include a large set of chemical and photochemical reactions to be established as a reliable simulation tool. The Unified Danish Eulerian Model is in the focus of our investigation as one of the most advanced large-scale mathematical models that describes adequately all physical and chemical processes.Variance-based methods are one of the most often used approaches for providing sensitivity analysis. To measure the extent of influence of the variation of the chemical rate constants in the mathematical model over pollutants’ concentrations the Sobol’ global sensitivity indices are estimated using efficient techniques for small sensitivity indices to avoid a loss of accuracy. Studying relationships between input parameters and the model’s output as well as internal mechanisms is very useful for a verification and an improvement of the model and also for development of monitoring and control strategies of harmful emissions, for a reliable prediction of the final output of scenarios when the concentration levels of pollutants are exceeded. The proposed procedure can also be applied when other large-scale mathematical models are used.     

Innovation as a policy strategy for natural resource protection

Growing global food demands place major strains on water resources, including quality impairments and increased water scarcity. Drawing on the largely separate bodies of literature on externalities and technological innovation, this article develops a dynamic framework to explore the long‐term impacts of alternative policy approaches to the agricultural impacts on water resources. Environmental policies, which focus on correcting environmental externalities, lead to an overall gain because costs to farmers are more than offset by reduced environmental damages. Technology policies, which direct public investments into agricultural eco‐innovations, lead to benefits for farmers as well as the environment. Joint implementation of both types of policies leads to the largest overall gain. In principle, a technology policy alone could have greater environmental benefits than an environmental policy alone. This outcome is most likely in cases where the productivity effect of new technology is large and the cost of research is low. Recommendations for research managers

• As an alternative to traditional environmental policy, investments in research can provide win–win solutions that benefit the environment and agricultural producers.
• Conceivably, eco‐innovations could lead to environmental conditions that are better than those achieved by environmental policy alone.
• Adding research investments to existing environmental policy would lead to further improvements in environmental quality while also benefitting farmers.
• Unlike environmental policies that are perceived to impose costs on agriculture, technology policies impart benefits to farmers and are less likely to face political opposition from industry.
• Technology policies are likely to be the most effective when eco‐innovation leads to technologies that meaningfully reduce environmental impacts and also raise farm productivity.