INTEGRATING MARINE PROTECTED AREAS INTO MODELS FOR FISHERY ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

ABSTRACT. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as an insurance policy against fishery management failures and as an integral part of an optimal management system for some fisheries. However, an incorrectly designed MPA can increase the risk of depletion of some species, and can reduce the value of the system of fisheries it impacts. MPAs may alter structural processes that relate fishery outcomes to management variables and thereby compromise the models that are used to guide decisions. New models and data gathering programs are needed to use MPAs effectively. This paper discusses the motivations and methods for incorporating explicitly spatial dynamics of both fish and fishermen into fishery models so that they can be used to assess spatial policies such as MPAs. Some important characteristics and capabilities which these models should have are outlined, and a topical review of some relevant modeling methodologies is provided.     

COALITIONS IN INTERNATIONAL FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

Abstract We show that with symmetric agents, noncooperation is the only stable coalition structure in a fishery with more than two countries. In the case of asymmetric fishing nations, partial or full cooperation may be stable even if the number of countries exceeds two. These are important results for recent fisheries economics papers that have not allowed for coalition formation. As an example how of one can use the model, we study the problem of new entrants into Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs). We show that depending on the economic structure of the fishery, new entrants may make cooperation more difficult or easier.     

PLANNING MARINE PROTECTED AREAS: A MULTIPLE USE GAME

Abstract The EU Marine Strategy Directive (MSD) has a regional focus in its implementation. The directive obliges countries to take multiple uses and the marine strategies of neighboring countries into account when formulating marine strategies and when designating marine protected areas (MPAs). We use game theoretical analysis both to find the optimal size of MPAs with multiple uses by multiple countries and to investigate the influences of multiple uses on cooperation. To this end, we develop a model in which two specific uses, fisheries and nature conservation, by multiple countries are considered in a strategic framework. The results of the paper suggest that EU marine policy such as the MSD and the coming Maritime Policy may help to secure the highest possible benefits from these MPAs if these policies induce cooperation among countries, but only if policies force countries to consider all possible benefits of MPAs. In fact cooperation on a single issue may give a worse outcome than the noncooperative equilibrium. The results also indicate that cooperation may be hard to achieve because of defector incentives, and therefore policy measures should be strict in enforcing cooperation on all possible uses of MPAs.     

A MODEL FOR THE BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION OF MARINE PROTECTED AREA SIZE AND PLACEMENT IN THE NORTH SEA

ABSTRACT. The use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a basic management tool to limit exploitation rates in marine fisheries has been widely suggested. Models are important in predicting the consequences of management decisions and the design of monitoring programs in terms of policy goals. However, few tools are available that consider both multiple fleets and ecosystem scale dynamics. We use a new applied game theory tool, Ecoseed, that operates within a temporally and spatially explicit biomass dynamics model, Ecopath with Ecosim, to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas in the North Sea in both ecological and economic terms. The Ecoseed model builds MPAs based on the change in values of predicted economic rents of fisheries and the existence value of biomass pools in the ecosystem. We consider the market values of four fisheries operating in the North Sea: a trawl fishery, a gill net fishery, a seine fishery, and an industrial (reduction) fishery. We apply existence values, scaled such that their aggregate is similar to the total fishery value, to six biomass pools of concern: juvenile cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, seals, and the collective pool ‘Other predators’ that include marine mammals. Four policy options were considered: to maximize the rent only; to maximize the existence values only; to maximize the sum of the rent and existence values; and, finally, to maximize the sum of the rent and the existence values, but excluding only the trawl fleet from the MPA. The Ecoseed model suggests that policy goals that do not include ecological considerations can negatively impact the rents obtained by the different fishing sectors. The existence values will also be negatively impacted unless the MPA is very large. The Ecoseed model also suggests that policy goals based solely on existence values will negatively impact most fisheries. Under policy options that included ecological considerations, maximum benefits were derived from an MPA that covered 25–40% of the North Sea, placed along the southern and eastern coasts. Finally, the Ecoseed model suggests that an exclusion of the trawl fishery only from the MPA can provide small‐to‐substantial positive impacts to most species and fleets; this relative impact depends on level of interaction between the trawl fleet and the other fleets target species (e.g., through bycatch).     

FISHERIES AND MARINE PROTECTED AREAS: A SPATIAL BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS

Abstract Marine protected areas (MPAs), used increasingly as a tool for conservation of ocean and coastal environments, typically interact with fisheries. Indeed, implementation of an MPA in a coastal region will likely affect fishing communities along that coast but to differing degrees depending on their location relative to the MPA. The resulting creation of “winners” and “losers” has implications for the acceptance and long‐term viability of the MPA. This paper develops a spatially explicit bioeconomic simulation model to assess the distributional implications resulting from creation of a no‐take MPA. The key assumption is that this results in certain fishers being displaced from the MPA to new fishing locations, leading to decreased fishing time and increased costs. Is it possible for those being displaced to end up as “winners” in the fishery? Analysis of the model indicates that such an outcome can occur in certain circumstances, notably if the biological effects of the MPA produce (i) improved ecosystem health inside the MPA, such that fish stock carrying capacity increases; or (ii) to some extent, high fish stock migration rates between neighboring areas. The results indicate that in creating MPAs, careful attention to their design is needed in order to deal with corresponding distributional impacts on fishing communities.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

OPTIONS FOR THE REGULATION OF MEDITERRANEAN DEMERSAL FISHERIES

Research and management actions are reviewed with respect to demersal fisheries of the Mediterranean since the Second World War, as reflected in the activities of the General Fisheries Council for the Mediterranean, (GFCM). The scientific background to the priority concern expressed for minimum size limits in the 1960's and 1970's is discussed, and in particular, the mesh selectivity experiments that formed the basis for yield per recruit calculations, with respect to the trawl fishery. More recent considerations, changing our perception of the appropriateness of size at first capture of demersal fish as a management tool in trawl fisheries, are reviewed. It is concluded that for multispecies fisheries where the first priority for fishing effort control is not respected, size limits based on size at maturity, rather than yield per recruit criteria, are more feasible, but that changes in mesh size need to take into account subsequent changes in equity between inshore and offshore fleets, and changes in species composition and areas of distribution during the life history. They also need to consider the high landed value of small fish in many Mediterranean fisheries. Alternative, or supplementary, measures to mesh size regulation that affect capture of small fish are also reviewed, including seasonal closures, closed areas, bans on trawling inshore, and regulations on minimum size at sale. A range of problems to be considered prior to deciding on an increase in mesh size are reviewed, including changes in total effort exerted, changes in increases in fishing power (and especially the impacts on the spawning stock), changes in discard rate, “meshing” of small fish, and indirect mortality during fishing. A strategy for introducing new mesh sizes is suggested, with emphasis, where possible, on the experimental approach, and on supplementary measures to control fishing effort. The paper concludes by considering an alternative paradigm to minimum size regulation for demersal fisheries management; namely, the exploitation of juvenile fish, with provision for escapement of a small proportion of large, mature fish offshore, for which exploitation rate declines and remains low. It is suggested that this strategy may be, de facto, the one prevailing in the small mesh size inshore trawl fishery prior to development of offshore fisheries. The implications of this possibility have to be considered seriously if high effort levels are to be maintained while effective size limits are raised.     

BIOECONOMIC INTERACTIONS IN AN ESTABLISHED FISHING EXCLUSION ZONE: THE GULF OF CASTELLAMMARE,NW SICILY

ABSTRACT. Fishing exclusion zones have become a key management tool for habitat protection and species conservation within fisheries. In many instances, where overfishing or habitat destruction is taking place, they are being promoted strongly. For fisheries management, their use is widespread and their popularity growing. It is clear that in some cases marine protected areas may be crucial to sustaining resources. Most research to date has considered the biological or ecological effects of such reserves. However, little real analysis has been published that takes into account the links between the biology and the economics of the fisheries involved, making the economic benefits to fisheries less clear. This paper considers an exclusion zone which was implemented in 1990 in the Gulf of Castellammare, Sicily in the form of a trawl ban, modeling the potential effects of future policy in this area. The success of the trawl ban has far exceeded expectations, and it is simulated that it may be advantageous, under strict conditions, to relax the ban in part for some of the year.     

A JUVENILE‐ADULT DISCRETE‐TIME PRODUCTION MODEL OF EXPLOITED FISHERY SYSTEMS

Abstract. Previous mathematical modeling of the population dynamics of Georges Bank Atlantic cod fishery employed discrete‐time models without age‐structure. To make use of a much wider variety of data on fisheries and fish stocks than was possible with an unstructured model, we introduce a juvenile‐adult age‐structured production exploited fishery model with a very general recruitment function. We use the age‐structured model to study the interaction between fish exploitation levels and recruitment dynamics. As case studies, we use our model results and historical fish population data from Georges Bank to investigate the impact of recent harvesting levels on the sustainability of cod fishery. We show that a constant harvesting policy with the same harvesting rate of 2007 would lead to the recovery and sustainability of Georges Bank cod fishery.     

MODELING A RIGHTS‐BASED APPROACH FOR MANAGING HABITAT IMPACTS OF FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. Limiting adverse consequences of fishing on essential fish habitat has emerged as a key fishery management objective. The conventional approach to providing habitat protection is to create MPAs or marine reserves that prohibit all or certain types of fishing in specific areas. However, there may be more cost‐effective and flexible ways to provide habitat protection. We propose an individual habitat quota (IHQ) system for habitat conservation that would utilize economic incentives to achieve habitat conservation goals cost‐effectively. Individual quotas of habitat impact units (HIU) would be distributed to fishers with an aggregate quota set to maintain a target habitat “stock.” HIU use would be based on a proxy for marginal habitat damage. We use a dynamic, explicitly spatial fishery and habitat simulation model to explore how such a system might work. We examine how outcomes are affected by spatial heterogeneity in the fishery and the scale of habitat regulation. We find that the IHQ system is a highly cost‐effective means of ensuring a given level of habitat protection, but that spatial heterogeneity and the scale of regulation can have significant effects on the distribution of habitat protection.     

VIABILITY MODEL OF TROPHIC INTERACTIONS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

ABSTRACT. An attempt to use viability models for studying marine ecosystems is proposed as a possible alternative to classical ecosystem modeling. Viability models do not consider optimal solutions but instead define all possible evolutions of a dynamical system under given constraints. Applied to marine ecosystems, a viability model is formulated based on the trophic coefficients of a mass‐balanced model. This requires relatively few assumptions about the processes involved and can integrate uncertainty associated with the required estimates of input parameters. An iterative algorithm is proposed to calculate the viability kernel, i.e., the envelope of all viable trajectories of the ecosystem. An application to the Benguela ecosystem is presented, considering interactions between detritus, phytoplankton, zooplankton, pelagic fish, demersal fish and fisheries. Results show how a viability kernel could be used to better define the healthy states of a marine ecosystem, by defining what states should be avoided. The paper discusses how viability models of trophic interactions could help to define a new ecosystem‐based indicator for fisheries management. It then discusses how this approach can potentially contribute to a paradigm shift that is emerging in the management of renewable resources.     

ON AVOIDANCE ACTIVITIES IN FISHERY ENFORCEMENT MODELS

Compliance and enforcement in fisheries are important issues from an economic point of view since management measures are useless without a certain level of enforcement. These conclusions come from the well‐established theoretical literature on compliance and enforcement problems within fisheries and a common result is that, it is efficient to set fines as high as possible and monitoring as low as possible, when fines are costless and offenders are risk neutral. However, this result is sensitive to the assumption that fishermen cannot engage in avoidance activities, e.g., activities to reduce the likelihood of being detected when noncomplying. The paper presents a model of fisheries that allows the fishermen to engage in avoidance activities. The conclusions from the model are that, under certain circumstances, fines are costly transfers to society since they not only have a direct positive effect on the level of deterrence, but also an indirect negative effect in the form of increased avoidance activities to reduce the probability of detection. The paper contributes to the literature on avoidance activities by introducing the externality from the illegal behavior as an endogenous effect on other offenders. For an externality, that has an exogenous effect on other actors, Malik shows that fines are only costly transfers for conditional deterrence (when one actor is deterred while another actor is not). For fisheries, we show that fines are also costly transfers under no deterrence (when no agents are deterred).     

FISHERIES SCIENCE AND MODELING: A LOOK TO THE FUTURE

In this paper I forecast that the fisheries management problems we face as we enter the twenty-first century will have less to do with extractive conservation and more to do with protection of regional and global environments. I present two contemporary fisheries management case histories which tend to bear this out: (1) Pacific Northwest salmon, with particular reference to the Columbia River, and (2) the high-seas driftnet fisheries of the North Pacific. Characterizing these types of problems in a few words, I would say that their effects are long-term and perhaps irreversible, and that they lead to conditions that we have yet to experience. Because of the type of input needed from the scientific community in order to forge rational solutions, modeling becomes ever more important in translating scientific experience into a form that will enlighten and move decisionmakers.     

THE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF HIGH SEAS FISHERY RESOURCES UNDER THE NEW LAW OF THE SEA

The Agreement, arising from the recently concluded U.N. Conference on Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks, calls for the management of these transboundary resources to be undertaken through regional fisheries management organizations. This paper represents a first attempt to analyze the optimal economic management of straddling/highly migratory stocks under the to-be-established regional organizations. Dynamic game theory, commonly used in analyzing the management of “shared” fishery resources, is brought to bear. An obvious question to be raised is whether the analysis applied to “shared” fish stocks management is sufficient for the purpose of examining the management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks. The analysis is not sufficient for the purpose of examining the cooperative management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks, because, in contrast to “shared” fish stock management, there is no guarantee that the number and nature of joint exploiters of the resource, in the aforementioned regional organization, will be constant through time. It is the existence of what is termed the “New Member Problem” which most clearly distinguishes the management of straddling/highly migratory fish stocks from the management of “shared” fish stocks. The paper discusses several approaches to addressing the “New Member Problem.”     

The management of high seas fisheries

The intergovernmental United Nations Conference on Highly Migratory and Straddling Stocks, initiated in 1993 and finished in 1995, addressed the conservation and management of fishery resources located both within the coastal state 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the adjacent high seas. These types of marine resources continue to be a source for international conflicts and debates. The original United Nations Law of the Sea of 1982 failed to address transboundary fisheries in a proper way. In particular, the agreement did not recognize the emergence of the complicated straddling stock issue. In the new United Nations Law of the Sea agreement of 1995, a consensus was reached that the management of the straddling and highly migratory fish stocks should be carried out through regional fisheries management organizations. We present a review of the straddling stock issues in the international agreement emerging from the negotiations within the United Nations. The review is contrasted with and clarified by game theoretic analyses. We also discuss one international fishery exemplifying the case, the Norwegian springspawning herring. The main conclusion is that the local problems, faced during the stage of setting up regional fisheries organizations for the management of straddling and highly migratory fish stocks, are expected to be much more complicated and difficult to solve as compared to the cases of shared fish stocks. In the current paper, we present two reasons for this increased complexity. The first is the larger number of players as compared to the case of shared fish stocks and the second is the possibility of new members entering the regional fisheries organizations.     

A model of rational equilibrium in quota-regulated multiple-species fisheries

This paper derives rational ecological–economic equilibrium outcomes—capital and variable input allocations, harvests, discards, revenue, costs, and stock abundances—in a spatially heterogeneous, multispecies fishery that is regulated with individual fishing quotas (IFQs). The production setting is decentralized; a manager chooses species-specific, seasonal, and spatially nondelineated quotas. Industry controls all aspects of harvesting operations. We present a solution concept and computational algorithm to solve for equilibrium harvests, discards, and profits across species, space, and time (within the regulatory cycle). The rational equilibrium mapping that we derive, used recursively, can be used to implement management-preferred bioeconomic outcomes. The model offers an essential IFQ regulation-to-outcome mapping that enables more precise implementation of management goals in multiple-species and heterogeneous fishery settings. Recommendations for Resource Managers Knowing where and when individual tradeable fishing quotas will be utilized across heterogeneous space and time in multiple-species fisheries is essential for effective fisheries management. Ad hoc models, while simple, contribute to “implementation uncertainty” whereby predicted mortality, discards, cost, and rent outcomes across fish species, space, and time are poorly matched to the realized outcomes that are implemented by resource users. A model of rational equilibrium mortality, discards, costs, and rent across space and time offers and powerful tool to improve the management of quota-regulated fisheries.     

RUMINATIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE OF POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELS IN FISHERIES

ABSTRACT. I trace the development of fisheries models (i.e., fish population dynamics models of species subject to fisheries) to the 21st century. The first real efforts occurred in the period 1900 1920 with the work of Baranov (the “Grandfather” of fisheries population dynamics) and the formation of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). The establishment of the science occurred between 1920 1960 with multi‐species modeling, age‐ and size‐structure dynamics, and production models. Fundamental work during this time was done by Ricker (the “Father” of fisheries population dynamics), Beverton and Holt (the “Prophets” of fisheries population dynamics), Chapman, Dickie, DeLury, Graham, Gulland, Leslie, Lotka and Volterra, Russell, Schaefer, and Thompson. During this time, most of the workwas deterministic and mathematical. Between 1960 and 1980, statistical methodology evolved greatly but was separate from mathematical advances for the most part. The development of statistical principles for the estimation of animal abundance was further enhanced by Arnason, Buckland, Burnham and Anderson and White, Cormack, Eberhardt, Jolly, Manly, Pollock, Ricker, Robson, and Seber, among others. Fisheries models evolved in a deterministic setting, with advances in age‐structured models (Gulland, Pope, Doubleday), surplus production models (Pella, Tomlin‐son, Schnute, Fletcher, Hilborn), growth models, bioeconomic models (C. Clark) and management control models (Hilborn, Walters). The period 1980 2000 was the Golden Age. The integration between mathematics and statistics occurred when likelihood and least squares techniques were formally combined with mathematical models of population change. The number of fisheries modelers grew exponentially during this time, resulting in a concomitant increase in publications. A major advance in the 1990s has been the development of Bayesian and time series methods, which have allowed explicit specification of uncertainty. Currently, theory allows realistic modeling of age‐ and size‐structured populations, migratory populations and harvesting strategies. These models routinely incorporate measurement error, process error (stochasticity) and time variation. But data needs often overwhelm the performance of models, and greater demands are being placed on models to answer complex questions. There has been poor communication between fisheries and ecological modelers, between fisheries researchers and statisticians, and among fisheries researchers in different geographic locales. Future models will need to deal better with habitat and spatial concerns, genetics, multispecies interactions, environmental factors, effects of harvesting on the ecosystem, model misspecification and so‐cioeconomic concerns. Meta‐analysis, retrospective analysis and operating models are some modern approaches for dealing with uncertainty and providing for sustainable fisheries. However, I fear that current attacks on single‐species models and management may result in rejection of these advances and an attempt to substitute a less scientific approach.     

CREATION OF MARINE RESERVES AND INCENTIVES FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Abstract Despite a number of benefits, marine reserves provide neither incentives for fishermen to protect biodiversity nor compensation for financial loss due to the designation of the reserves. To obtain fishermen's support for marine reserves, some politicians have suggested that managers of new marine reserves should consider subsidizing or compensating those fishermen affected by the new operations. The objective of this paper is to apply principal–agent theory, which is still infrequently applied to fisheries, to define the optimal reserve area, fishing effort, and transfer payments in the context of symmetric and asymmetric information between managers and fishermen. The expected optimal reserve size under asymmetric information is smaller than that under symmetric information. Fishing efforts encouraged with a transfer payment are always less compared to those without payment. This reflects the fact that as the manager induces the fishermen to participate in the conservation program, the fishermen will take into account their effects on fish stock by decreasing their effort. Examples are also supplied to demonstrate these concepts.     

A MODEL OF CHINOOK SALMON POPULATION DYNAMICS INCORPORATING SIZE‐SELECTIVE EXPLOITATION AND INHERITANCE OF POLYGENIC CORRELATED TRAITS

Abstract Concern regarding the potential for selective fisheries to degrade desirable characteristics of exploited fish populations is growing worldwide. Although the occurrence of fishery‐induced evolution in a wild population has not been irrefutably documented, considerable theoretical and empirical evidence for that possibility exists. Environmental conditions influence survival and growth in many species and may mask comparatively subtle trends induced by selective exploitation, especially given the evolutionarily short time series of data available from many fisheries. Modeling may be the most efficient investigative tool under such conditions. Motivated by public concern that large‐mesh gillnet fisheries may be altering Chinook salmon in western Alaska, we constructed a stochastic model of the population dynamics of Chinook salmon. The model contained several individually based components and incorporated size‐selective exploitation, assortative mating, size‐dependent female fecundity, density‐dependent survival, and the heritability of size and age. Substantial reductions in mean size and age were observed under all scenarios. Concurrently reducing directional selection and increasing spawning abundance was most effective in stimulating population recovery. Use of this model has potential to improve our ability to investigate the consequences of selective exploitation and aid development of improved management strategies to more effectively sustain fish and fisheries into the future.     

Stable and unstable equilibrium states in a fishery–aquaculture model

We study interactions between fishery and aquaculture using a 3D generalized Lotka–Volterra model, where we assume that the aquaculture production may affect the growth rate in the fish stock and the productivity in harvesting. In addition, input demands from both marine industries may result in effort competition. We identify conditions for the coexistence of a unique equilibrium state inside the first octant of the phase space and equilibrium states on its boundary. Conditions for stability and instability of these states are also given, thus showing the possibility of having bistability. The equilibrium point inside the first octant is stable if the growth impact on fishery from sea farming is below the potential productivity in harvesting. In the complementary case, we have an unstable interior equilibrium, and we may then end up in stable equilibrium states on the boundary, where either the fishery or the aquaculture is wiped out. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• More empirical and theoretical research is needed to reveal types of interrelations between fisheries and aquaculture, and their importance for long run stability between the sectors.

• When designing policies for the aquaculture industries, managers should in particular be aware of possible long‐term harmful effects from aquaculture to fisheries.

• Increased areas for sea farming reduce the relative profitability of the fishery, and if the area increases above a certain level, this could wipe out the fishery.