Unsupervised extreme learning machine and support vector regression hybrid model for predicting energy commodity futures index

Support vector regression (SVR) has been successfully applied in various domains, including predicting the prices of different financial instruments like stocks, futures, options, and indices. Because of the wide variation in financial time-series data, instead of using only a single standard prediction technique like SVR, we propose a hybrid model called USELM-SVR. It is a combination of unsupervised extreme learning machine (US-ELM)-based clustering and SVR forecasting. We assessed the feasibility and effectiveness of this hybrid model using a case study, predicting the one-, two-, and three-day ahead closing values of the energy commodity futures index traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange in India. Our experimental results show that the USELM-SVR is viable and effective, and produces better forecasts than our benchmark models (standard SVR, a hybrid of SVR with self-organizing map (SOM) clustering, and a hybrid of SVR with k-means clustering). Moreover, the proposed USELM-SVR architecture is useful as an alternative model for prediction tasks when we require more accurate predictions.     

A kernel extreme learning machine algorithm based on improved particle swam optimization

Kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) increases the robustness of extreme learning machine (ELM) by turning linearly non-separable data in a low dimensional space into a linearly separable one. However, the internal power parameters of ELM are initialized at random, causing the algorithm to be unstable. In this paper, we use the active operators particle swam optimization algorithm (APSO) to obtain an optimal set of initial parameters for KELM, thus creating an optimal KELM classifier named as APSO-KELM. Experiments on standard genetic datasets show that APSO-KELM has higher classification accuracy when being compared to the existing ELM, KELM, and these algorithms combining PSO/APSO with ELM/KELM, such as PSO-KELM, APSO-ELM, PSO-ELM, etc. Moreover, APSO-KELM has good stability and convergence, and is shown to be a reliable and effective classification algorithm.     

A kernel-free quadratic surface support vector machine for semi-supervised learning

In this paper, we propose a kernel-free semi-supervised quadratic surface support vector machine model for binary classification. The model is formulated as a mixed-integer programming problem, which is equivalent to a non-convex optimization problem with absolute-value constraints. Using the relaxation techniques, we derive a semi-definite programming problem for semi-supervised learning. By solving this problem, the proposed model is tested on some artificial and public benchmark data sets. Preliminary computational results indicate that the proposed method outperforms some existing well-known methods for solving semi-supervised support vector machine with a Gaussian kernel in terms of classification accuracy.     

Denoising deep extreme learning machine for sparse representation

In recent years, a great deal of research has focused on the sparse representation for signal. Particularly, a dictionary learning algorithm, K-SVD, is introduced to efficiently learn an redundant dictionary from a set of training signals. Indeed, much progress has been made in different aspects. In addition, there is an interesting technique named extreme learning machine (ELM), which is an single-layer feed-forward neural networks (SLFNs) with a fast learning speed, good generalization and universal classification capability. In this paper, we propose an optimization method about K-SVD, which is an denoising deep extreme learning machines based on autoencoder (DDELM-AE) for sparse representation. In other words, we gain a new learned representation through the DDELM-AE and as the new “input”, it makes the conventional K-SVD algorithm perform better. To verify the classification performance of the new method, we conduct extensive experiments on real-world data sets. The performance of the deep models (i.e., Stacked Autoencoder) is comparable. The experimental results indicate the fact that our proposed method is very efficient in the sight of speed and accuracy.     

Sample covariance shrinkage for high dimensional dependent data

For high dimensional data sets the sample covariance matrix is usually unbiased but noisy if the sample is not large enough. Shrinking the sample covariance towards a constrained, low dimensional estimator can be used to mitigate the sample variability. By doing so, we introduce bias, but reduce variance. In this paper, we give details on feasible optimal shrinkage allowing for time series dependent observations.     

Minimum distance classification rules for high dimensional data

In this article, the problem of classifying a new observation vector into one of the two known groups Π_i,i=1,2, distributed as multivariate normal with common covariance matrix is considered. The total number of observation vectors from the two groups is, however, less than the dimension of the observation vectors. A sample-squared distance between the two groups, using Moore-Penrose inverse, is introduced. A classification rule based on the minimum distance is proposed to classify an observation vector into two or several groups. An expression for the error of misclassification when there are only two groups is derived for large p and n=O(p^δ),0<δ<1.     

Graphs as navigational infrastructure for high dimensional data spaces

We propose using graph theoretic results to develop an infrastructure that tracks movement from a display of one set of variables to another. The illustrative example throughout is the real-time morphing of one scatterplot into another. Hurley and Oldford (J Comput Graph Stat 2010) made extensive use of the graph having variables as nodes and edges indicating a paired relationship between them. The present paper introduces several new graphs derivable from this one whose traversals can be described as particular movements through high dimensional spaces. These are connected to known results in graph theory and the graph theoretic results applied to the problem of visualizing high-dimensional data.     

A novel dictionary learning method based on total least squares approach with application in high dimensional biological data

Advances in Data Analysis and Classification - In recent years dictionary learning has become a favorite sparse feature extraction technique. Dictionary learning represents each data as a sparse...     

Variable selection in censored quantile regression with high dimensional data

We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for censored quantile regression with high dimensional predictors. To account for censoring data in high dimensional case, we employ effective dimension reduction and the ideas of informative subset idea. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. Simulation study and real data analysis are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.     

Identification of nonlinear system using extreme learning machine based Hammerstein model

In this paper, a new method for nonlinear system identification via extreme learning machine neural network based Hammerstein model (ELM-Hammerstein) is proposed. The ELM-Hammerstein model consists of static ELM neural network followed by a linear dynamic subsystem. The identification of nonlinear system is achieved by determining the structure of ELM-Hammerstein model and estimating its parameters. Lipschitz quotient criterion is adopted to determine the structure of ELM-Hammerstein model from input–output data. A generalized ELM algorithm is proposed to estimate the parameters of ELM-Hammerstein model, where the parameters of linear dynamic part and the output weights of ELM neural network are estimated simultaneously. The proposed method can obtain more accurate identification results with less computation complexity. Three simulation examples demonstrate its effectiveness.     

An efficient random forests algorithm for high dimensional data classification

In this paper, we propose a new random forest (RF) algorithm to deal with high dimensional data for classification using subspace feature sampling method and feature value searching. The new subspace sampling method maintains the diversity and randomness of the forest and enables one to generate trees with a lower prediction error. A greedy technique is used to handle cardinal categorical features for efficient node splitting when building decision trees in the forest. This allows trees to handle very high cardinality meanwhile reducing computational time in building the RF model. Extensive experiments on high dimensional real data sets including standard machine learning data sets and image data sets have been conducted. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach for learning RFs significantly reduced prediction errors and outperformed most existing RFs when dealing with high-dimensional data.     

Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.     

Frontier estimation via kernel regression on high power-transformed data

We present a new method for estimating the frontier of a multidimensional sample. The estimator is based on a kernel regression on the power-transformed data. We assume that the exponent of the transformation goes to infinity while the bandwidth of the kernel goes to zero. We give conditions on these two parameters to obtain complete convergence and asymptotic normality. The good performance of the estimator is illustrated on some finite sample situations.     

A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data

The availability of abundant data posts a challenge to integrate static customer data and longitudinal behavioral data to improve performance in customer churn prediction. Usually, longitudinal behavioral data are transformed into static data before being included in a prediction model. In this study, a framework with ensemble techniques is presented for customer churn prediction directly using longitudinal behavioral data. A novel approach called the hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine (H-MK-SVM) is formulated. A three phase training algorithm for the H-MK-SVM is developed, implemented and tested. The H-MK-SVM constructs a classification function by estimating the coefficients of both static and longitudinal behavioral variables in the training process without transformation of the longitudinal behavioral data. The training process of the H-MK-SVM is also a feature selection and time subsequence selection process because the sparse non-zero coefficients correspond to the variables selected. Computational experiments using three real-world databases were conducted. Computational results using multiple criteria measuring performance show that the H-MK-SVM directly using longitudinal behavioral data performs better than currently available classifiers.     

Adaptive credit scoring with kernel learning methods

Credit scoring is a method of modelling potential risk of credit applications. Traditionally, logistic regression and discriminant analysis are the most widely used approaches to create scoring models in the industry. However, these methods are associated with quite a few limitations, such as being instable with high-dimensional data and small sample size, intensive variable selection effort and incapability of efficiently handling non-linear features. Most importantly, based on these algorithms, it is difficult to automate the modelling process and when population changes occur, the static models usually fail to adapt and may need to be rebuilt from scratch. In the last few years, the kernel learning approach has been investigated to solve these problems. However, the existing applications of this type of methods (in particular the SVM) in credit scoring have all focused on the batch model and did not address the important problem of how to update the scoring model on-line. This paper presents a novel and practical adaptive scoring system based on an incremental kernel method. With this approach, the scoring model is adjusted according to an on-line update procedure that can always converge to the optimal solution without information loss or running into numerical difficulties. Non-linear features in the data are automatically included in the model through a kernel transformation. This approach does not require any variable reduction effort and is also robust for scoring data with a large number of attributes and highly unbalanced class distributions. Moreover, a new potential kernel function is introduced to further improve the predictive performance of the scoring model and a kernel attribute ranking technique is used that adds transparency in the final model. Experimental studies using real world data sets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Volatility forecasting for interbank offered rate using grey extreme learning machine: The case of China

Interbank Offered rate is the only direct market rate in China’s currency market. Volatility forecasting of China Interbank Offered Rate (IBOR) has a very important theoretical and practical significance for financial asset pricing and financial risk measure or management. However, IBOR is a dynamics and non-steady time series whose developmental changes have stronger random fluctuation, so it is difficult to forecast the volatility of IBOR. This paper offers a hybrid algorithm using grey model and extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast volatility of IBOR. The proposed algorithm is composed of three phases. In the first, grey model is used to deal with the original IBOR time series by accumulated generating operation (AGO) and weaken the stochastic volatility in original series. And then, a forecasting model is founded by using ELM to analyze the new IBOR series. Lastly, the predictive value of the original IBOR series can be obtained by inverse accumulated generating operation (IAGO). The new model is applied to forecasting Interbank Offered Rate of China. Compared with the forecasting results of BP and classical ELM, the new model is more efficient to forecasting short- and middle-term volatility of IBOR.     

A new test for sphericity of the covariance matrix for high dimensional data

In this paper we propose a new test procedure for sphericity of the covariance matrix when the dimensionality, p, exceeds that of the sample size, N=n+1. Under the assumptions that (A) as p→∞ for i=1,…,16 and (B) p/n→c<∞ known as the concentration, a new statistic is developed utilizing the ratio of the fourth and second arithmetic means of the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix. The newly defined test has many desirable general asymptotic properties, such as normality and consistency when (n,p)→∞. Our simulation results show that the new test is comparable to, and in some cases more powerful than, the tests for sphericity in the current literature.     

Partial least squares classification for high dimensional data using the PCOUT algorithm

Classification of samples into two or multi-classes is to interest of scientists in almost every field. Traditional statistical methodology for classification does not work well when there are more variables (p) than there are samples (n) and it is highly sensitive to outlying observations. In this study, a robust partial least squares based classification method is proposed to handle data containing outliers where $n\ll p.$ The proposed method is applied to well-known benchmark datasets and its properties are explored by an extensive simulation study.     

Non-parametric kernel regression for multinomial data

This paper presents a kernel smoothing method for multinomial regression. A class of estimators of the regression functions is constructed by minimizing a localized power-divergence measure. These estimators include the bandwidth and a single parameter originating in the power-divergence measure as smoothing parameters. An asymptotic theory for the estimators is developed and the bias-adjusted estimators are obtained. A data-based algorithm for selecting the smoothing parameters is also proposed. Simulation results reveal that the proposed algorithm works efficiently.