Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

Robust improvement schemes for road networks under demand uncertainty

This paper is concerned with development of improvement schemes for road networks under future travel demand uncertainty. Three optimization models, sensitivity-based, scenario-based and min–max, are proposed for determining robust optimal improvement schemes that make system performance insensitive to realizations of uncertain demands or allow the system to perform better against the worst-case demand scenario. Numerical examples and simulation tests are presented to demonstrate and validate the proposed models.     

Stochastic dominance and mean–variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment

In this paper, we first extend the stochastic dominance (SD) theory by introducing the first three orders of both ascending SD (ASD) and descending SD (DSD) to decisions in business planning and investment to risk-averse and risk-loving decision makers so that they can compare both return and loss. We provide investors with more tools for empirical analysis, with which they can identify the first-order ASD and DSD prospects and discern arbitrage opportunities that could increase his/her utility as well as wealth and set up a zero dollar portfolio to make huge profit. Our tools also enable investors and business planners to identify the third order ASD and DSD prospects and make better choices.     

A fuzzy linear programming based approach for tactical supply chain planning in an uncertainty environment

This paper models supply chain (SC) uncertainties by fuzzy sets and develops a fuzzy linear programming model for tactical supply chain planning in a multi-echelon, multi-product, multi-level, multi-period supply chain network. In this approach, the demand, process and supply uncertainties are jointly considered. The aim is to centralize multi-node decisions simultaneously to achieve the best use of the available resources along the time horizon so that customer demands are met at a minimum cost. This proposal is tested by using data from a real automobile SC. The fuzzy model provides the decision maker (DM) with alternative decision plans with different degrees of satisfaction.     

Uncertainty and value of information when allocating resources within and between healthcare programmes

A two-stage stochastic mathematical programming formulation has been developed to optimally allocate resources within and between healthcare programmes when there is an exogenous budget and the parameters of the healthcare models are variable and uncertain. This formulation solves the optimal resource allocation problem and calculates the expected value of acquiring additional information to resolve the uncertainties within the allocation. It is shown that the proposed formulation has several advantages over the chance constrained and robust mathematical programming methods.     

An experimental study of the effect of uncertainty representation on decision making

This paper presents the results of an experiment investigating the effects of using different formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations on decision making. Study participants make a series of hypothetical choices using six uncertainty formats - probability distributions, expected values, standard deviations, three-point (minimum-median-maximum) approximations, quantiles, and scenarios - and effects on decision making are tracked in terms of the quality of the final choice, the specific characteristics of the selected alternatives, and the difficulty experienced in making a decision. The results provide insights into how subjects make single- and multi-criteria choices in the presence of uncertainty (and some format for representing uncertainty) but in the absence of any real facilitation. The use of probability distributions appeared to overload subjects with information, leading to poorer and more difficult choices than if some intermediate level of summary was used - in particular three-point approximations or quantiles.     

Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios

This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using probability distributions. The scenario approach can be expressed as a simplified version of the comprehensive but practically complex “distributive” outranking method of d’Avignon and Vincke. Using a scenario approach has distinct practical advantages, but also presents the inherent danger that meaningful information is ignored. The extent of this danger is assessed using a simulation experiment, where it is found to be of a magnitude that is non-trivial but still potentially acceptable for certain decision contexts.     

Design and planning of supply chains with integration of reverse logistics activities under demand uncertainty

In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation is developed for the design and planning of supply chains with reverse flows while considering simultaneously production, distribution and reverse logistics activities. It is also considered products’ demand uncertainty using a scenario tree approach. As main goal the model defines the maximization of the expected net present value and the results provide details on sizing and location of plants, warehouses and retailers, definition of processes to install, establishment of forward and reverse flows and inventory levels to attain. The model is applied to a representative European supply chain case study and its applicability is demonstrated.     

Decision making under uncertainty with fuzzy targets

This paper discusses the issue of how to use fuzzy targets in the target-based model for decision making under uncertainty. After introducing a target-based interpretation of the expected value on which it is shown that this model implicitly assumes a neutral behavior on attitude about the target, we examine the issue of using fuzzy targets considering different attitudes about the target selection of the decision maker. We also discuss the problem for situations on which the decision maker’s attitude about target may change according to different states of nature. Especially, it is shown that the target-based approach can provide an unified way for solving the problem of fuzzy decision making with uncertainty about the state of nature and imprecision about payoffs. Several numerical examples are given for illustration of the discussed issues.     

Collaborative production planning of supply chain under price and demand uncertainty

This research is motivated by an automobile manufacturing supply chain network. It involves a multi-echelon production system with material supply, component fabrication, manufacturing, and final product distribution activities. We address the production planning issue by considering bill of materials and the trade-offs between inventories, production costs and customer service level. Due to its complexity, an integrated solution framework which combines scatter evolutionary algorithm, fuzzy programming and stochastic chance-constrained programming are combined to jointly take up the issue. We conduct a computational study to evaluate the model. Numerical results using the proposed algorithm confirm the advantage of the integrated planning approach. Compared with other solution methodologies, the supply chain profits from the proposed approach consistently outperform, in some cases up to 13% better. The impacts of uncertainty in demand, material price, and other parameters on the performance of the supply chain are studied through sensitivity analysis. We found the proposed model is effective in developing robust production plans under various market conditions.     

Profit criteria involving risk in price setting of virtual products

This work deals with pricing of “virtual” products, i.e., products that a retailer can supply after demand has been realized. Such products allow the retailer to avoid holding costs and ensure timely fulfillment of demand with no risk of shortage. Demand is commonly price-dependent and uncertain, and we seek to maximize each of three criteria: expected profit, the likelihood of achieving a profit target, and the profit for a given percentile. Simultaneous multiple criteria are also explored. Two forms of demand uncertainty are considered in the analysis: the multiplicative form, where, due to stochastic dominance, all the investigated profit criteria—and, in fact, any utility function of the profit—can be optimized simultaneously; and the additive form, where stochastic dominance cannot occur. Under the multiplicative form of demand, the property of stochastic dominance is shown to hold in a two-echelon supply chain (comprising both the supplier and the retailer) and in a centralized system.     

Recent applications of theory of the firm under uncertainty

This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis and analysis of the current and recent empirical implementations of the theory of the firm under uncertainty, including multiple sources of uncertainty. In so doing, it identifies the major estimation obstacles and it offers the future empirical researcher ways to derive simple estimation procedures under multiple sources uncertainty.     

Measuring performance improvement of Taiwanese commercial banks under uncertainty

In order to enable domestic commercial banks to be more competitive globally, the Taiwanese government has twice attempted to financially restructure them, in 2001 and 2004. Different from other studies which use deterministic analyses to measure changes in performance between two periods, this paper adopts probabilistic analysis to take the uncertainty related to certain factors into account. Data from six years, from 2005 to 2010, are divided into two periods, 2005–2007 and 2008–2010, to calculate the global Malmquist productivity index (MPI) as a measure of the change in performance. By assuming beta distributions for the data, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to find the distribution of the MPI. The results show that, in general, the performance of the commercial banks has indeed improved. While conventional deterministic analyses may mislead top managers and make them overconfident about results that are actually uncertain, probabilistic analysis can produce more reliable information that can thus lead to better decisions.     

A framework for the value of information in inventory replenishment

Technological advances and changes in supply chain management practices have combined to draw attention to the value of information sharing in inventory replenishment. Academic research has produced seemingly conflicting results due to differences in the type of information that is shared, the supply chain structure, and the selection and parameterization of performance goals. This research provides a framework to help explain apparent differences in the extant literature. Our purpose is to understand what determines the value of information. With this specific view, we establish a set of research questions and suggest directions for future research.     

Single-vendor multi-buyer inventory coordination under private information

This paper considers the problem of coordinating a single-vendor multi-buyer inventory system when there are privacy restrictions in the information required to solve the problem. The objective function and cost parameters of each facility are regarded as private information that no other facilities in the system have access to. Moreover, each facility is responsible to specify its own replenishment policy. The objective is to minimize the total average setup/ordering and inventory-related cost. Solution methodologies under private and global information are developed to find two types of nested power-of-two stationary policies. The first policy assumes all the buyers must replenish simultaneously. The second policy is a more general case where the common replenishment assumption is relaxed. A simple form of information exchange is uncovered that allows the solution methodologies for private and global information yield the same results. The experimental results suggest that the performance of the proposed heuristics is comparable or better than an existing method.     

Calculating safety stocks for assembly systems with random component procurement lead times: A branch and bound algorithm

In this paper, a discrete single-level multi-component inventory control model for assembly systems with random component procurement lead times is considered. The economic order quantity (EOQ) policy is used for a type of finished product. The requirements of the components are constant and cyclic (periodic), and their values per period are deduced from the EOQ for the finished product. The paper focuses on the components safety stock calculation. The objective is to minimise the average holding cost of the components while keeping the desired service level for the finished product. For this, an upper bound, two lower bounds, two dominance properties and an efficient branch and bound algorithm are suggested. Several tests are executed and conclusions are drawn. The proposed model provides a substantial saving for assembly systems with a large number and unreliable delivery of components as in semi-conductor and automotive industries.     

Single-supplier/multiple-buyer supply chain coordination: Incorporating buyers’ expectations under vertical information sharing

We address the coordination problem in a single-supplier/multiple-buyer supply chain. The supplier wishes to coordinate the supply chain by offering quantity discounts. To obtain their complete cost information, the supplier exchanges his own cost parameters with buyers leading to vertical information sharing. The supplier thinks that the buyers, as they have access to supplier’s setup and holding cost information, may demand a portion of the anticipated coordination savings based on the partial information they hold about the cost structure of the entire supply chain. We model each buyer’s expectations based on her limited view of the entire supply chain which consists of herself and the supplier only. These expectations are then incorporated into the modeling of the supply chain, which results in a generalization of the traditional Stackelberg type models. We discuss alternative efficiency sharing mechanisms, and propose methods to design the associated discount schemes that take buyers’ expectations into account. In designing the discount schemes, we consider both price discriminatory and non-price discriminatory approaches. The study adds to the existing body of work by incorporating buyers’ expectations into a constrained Stackelberg structure, and by achieving coordination without forcing buyers to explicitly comply with the supplier’s replenishment period in choosing their order quantities. The numerical analysis of the coordination efficiency and allocation of the net savings of the proposed discount schemes shows that the supplier is still able to coordinate the supply chain with high efficiency levels, and retain a significant portion of the net savings.     

Inventory systems with stochastic demand and supply: Properties and approximations

We model a retailer whose supplier is subject to complete supply disruptions. We combine discrete-event uncertainty (disruptions) and continuous sources of uncertainty (stochastic demand or supply yield), which have different impacts on optimal inventory settings. This prevents optimal solutions from being found in closed form. We develop a closed-form approximate solution by focusing on a single stochastic period of demand or yield. We show how the familiar newsboy fractile is a critical trade-off in these systems, since the optimal base-stock policies balance inventory holding costs with the risk of shortage costs generated by a disruption.