Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

Global dynamics of a viral infection model with a latent period and Beddington-DeAngelis response

In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a viral infection model with a latent period. The model has a nonlinear function which denotes the incidence rate of the virus infection in vivo. The basic reproduction number of the virus is identified and it is shown that the uninfected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is equal to or less than unity. Moreover, the virus and infected cells eventually persist and there exists a unique infected equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. The basic reproduction number determines the equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable, even if there is a time delay in the infection.     

Stability and Hopf bifurcation of a delayed epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a stage‐structured SI epidemic model with time delay and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease‐free equilibrium, and the existence of Hopf bifurcations are established. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A delayed SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a constant infectious period

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with saturation incidence and a time delay describing a constant infectious period is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium is established. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, it is proved that the disease is uniformly persistent in the population, and explicit formulae are obtained to estimate the eventual lower bound of the fraction of infectious individuals. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global attractiveness of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main results.     

Mathematical analysis of a model for the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis

A deterministic model for studying the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in a single cattle herd is presented and qualitatively analyzed. A notable feature of the model is that it allows for the importation of asymptomatically infected cattle (into the herd) because re‐stocking from outside sources. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the model has a globally‐asymptotically stable disease‐free equilibrium whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number, is less than unity. In the absence of importation of asymptomatically infected cattle, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction number exceeds unity (this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case). It is further shown that, for the case where asymptomatically infected cattle are imported into the herd, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium. This equilibrium is also shown to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and stability of epidemic model with free-living pathogens growing in the environment

To understand the impact of free-living pathogens (FLP) on the epidemics, an epidemic model with FLP is constructed. The global dynamics of our model are determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$. If $R_0<1$, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if $R_0>1$, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to illustrate our analytical results.     

Stability Analysis of an SEIS Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence and Time Delay

In this paper, an SEIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and time delay is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of feasible equilibria of the model is established. By using suitable Lyapunov functional and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity. If the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results.     

具有标准发生率和因病死亡率的离散SIS传染病模型的全局稳定性分析

主要研究了具有标准发生率和因病死亡率的离散SIS传染病模型的动力学性质,利用构造Lyapunov函数,得到模型无病平衡点和地方性平衡点的全局稳定性,即无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的当且仅当基本再生数R_0≤1,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的当且仅当R_0>1.     

Global asymptotic stability of a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence

In this paper, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of an autonomous SEIRS epidemic model with the saturation incidence is studied. Using the method of Liapunov–LaSalle invariance principle, we obtain the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if the basic reproduction number is not greater than one. Moreover, we show that the disease is permanent if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions of locally and globally asymptotically stable convergence to an endemic equilibrium are obtained base on the permanence.     

Mathematical model for the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis–malaria co‐infection

A mathematical model to understand the dynamics of malaria–visceral leishmaniasis co‐infection is proposed and analyzed. Results show that both diseases can be eliminated if R₀, the basic reproduction number of the co‐infection, is less than unity, and the system undergoes a backward bifurcation where an endemic equilibrium co‐exists with the disease‐free equilibrium when one of R_m or R_l, the basic reproduction numbers of malaria‐only and visceral leishmaniasis‐only, is precisely less than unity. Results also show that in the case of maximum protection against visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if malaria patients are protected from VL infection; similarly, in the case of maximum protection against malaria, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if VL and post‐kala‐azar dermal leishmaniasis patients and the recovered humans after VL are protected from malaria infection. Numerical results show that if R_m and R_l are greater than unity, then we have co‐existence of both disease at an endemic equilibrium, and malaria incidence is higher than visceral leishmaniasis incidence at steady state. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一类具有饱和发生率及免疫的时滞SEIR传染病模型的全局渐近稳定性

研究了一类具有饱和发生率及免疫的SEIR,传染病模型、构造适当的Lyapunov泛函并运用时滞微分方程的LaSalle型定理,证明了当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是全局渐进稳定的,当基本再生数大于1时,地方病平衡点存在并且是全局渐近稳定的.     

Global stability of an HIV-1 infection model with saturation infection and intracellular delay

In this paper, an HIV-1 infection model with a saturation infection rate and an intracellular delay accounting for the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virus particles is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of an infection-free equilibrium and a chronic-infection equilibrium of the model is established. By using suitable Lyapunov functionals and the LaSalle invariant principle, it is proved that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if the basic reproduction ratio is greater than unity, the chronic-infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.     

带有非线性传染率的传染病模型

对一类带有非线性传染率的SEIS传染病模型,找到了其基本再生数.借助动力系统极限理论,得到当基本再生数小于1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,且疾病最终灭绝.当基本再生数大于1时,无病平衡点是不稳定的,而唯一的地方病平衡点是局部渐近稳定的.应用Fonda定理,得到当基本再生数大于1时疾病一致持续存在.     

Global stability analysis and permanence for an HIV-1 dynamics model with distributed delays

This paper mainly investigates the global asymptotic stabilities of two HIV dynamics models with two distributed intracellular delays incorporating Beddington-DeAngelis functional response infection rate. An eclipse stage of infected cells (i.e. latently infected cells), not yet producing virus, is included in our models. For the first model, it is proven that if the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is less than unity, then the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if $R_0 $ is greater than unity, then the infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. We also obtain that the disease is always present when $R_0 $ is greater than unity by using a permanence theorem for infinite dimensional systems. What is more, a n-stage-structured HIV model with two distributed intracellular delays, which is the extensions to the first model, is developed and analyzed. We also prove the global asymptotical stabilities of two equilibria by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals.     

Global analysis of a dynamical model for transmission of tuberculosis with a general contact rate

This paper deals with the global analysis of a dynamical model for the spread of tuberculosis with a general contact rate. The model exhibits the traditional threshold behavior. We prove that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and when the basic reproduction ratio is great than unity, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The stability of equilibria is derived through the use of Lyapunov stability theory and LaSalle’s invariant set theorem. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

Global and Bifurcation Analysis of an HIV Pathogenesis Model with Saturated Reverse Function

In this paper, an HIV dynamics model with the proliferation of CD4 T cells is proposed. The authors consider nonnegativity, boundedness, global asymptotic stability of the solutions and bifurcation properties of the steady states. It is proved that the virus is cleared from the host under some conditions if the basic reproduction number R_0 is less than unity. Meanwhile, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We also obtain one equilibrium is semi-stable by using center manifold theory. It is proved that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions if R_0 is greater than unity. It also is proved that the model undergoes Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium under some conditions. It is novelty that the model exhibits two famous bifurcations,backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. The model is extended to incorporate the specific Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes(CTLs) immune response. Stabilities of equilibria and Hopf bifurcation are considered accordingly. In addition, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis results are also given in paper.     

一类带有非线性传染率的SEIS传染病模型的定性分析

借助极限理论和Fonda定理,研究了一类既有常数输入率又有因病死亡率的SEIS传染病模型．所考虑模型的传染率是非线性的,并且得到了该模型的基本再生数,当基本再生数小于1时,该模型仅存在唯一的无病平衡点,它是全局渐近稳定的,且疾病最终灭绝．当基本再生数大于1时,该模型除存在不稳定的无病平衡点外,还存在唯一的局部渐近稳定的地方病平衡点,并且疾病一致持续存在．     

Global stability of a stage-structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence

In this paper, a stage-structured epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence with a factor S^p is investigated. By using limit theory of differential equations and Theorem of Busenberg and van den Driessche, global dynamics of the model is rigorously established. We prove that if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease dies out; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations support our analytical results and illustrate the effect of p on the dynamic behavior of the model.