A least squares identification algorithm for a state space model with multi-state delays

A parameter estimator is presented for a state space model with time delay based on the given input–output data. The basic idea is to expand the state equations and to eliminate some state variables, and to substitute the state equation into the output equation to obtain the identification model which contains the information vector and parameter vector. A least squares algorithm is developed to estimate the system parameter vectors. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Parameter estimation for time varying nonlinear circuit from state analysis and simulation

This paper develops a parameter estimation technique for a nonlinear circuit. The nonlinear circuit is represented by a state space model and perturbation theory is applied to obtain the approximate analytical solution for the state vector. The state model is assumed to be slowly time varying so that the parameter vector is constant over different time slots. The expressions obtained for the state vector are matched with the noisy data using the gradient algorithm and hence the parameter vector is estimated. Simulations are based on discretization of the state space model using MATLAB.     

Combined state and least squares parameter estimation algorithms for dynamic systems

The control theory and automation technology cast the glory of our era. Highly integrated computer chip and automation products are changing our lives. Mathematical models and parameter estimation are basic for automatic control. This paper discusses the parameter estimation algorithm of establishing the mathematical models for dynamic systems and presents an estimated states based recursive least squares algorithm, and the states of the system are computed through the Kalman filter using the estimated parameters. A numerical example is provided to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Least squares based iterative parameter estimation algorithm for multivariable controlled ARMA system modelling with finite measurement data

Difficulties of identification for multivariable controlled autoregressive moving average (ARMA) systems lie in that there exist unknown noise terms in the information vector, and the iterative identification can be used for the system with unknown terms in the information vector. By means of the hierarchical identification principle, those noise terms in the information vector are replaced with the estimated residuals and a least squares based iterative algorithm is proposed for multivariable controlled ARMA systems. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithm is effective.     

Online state of charge estimation of Li-ion battery based on an improved unscented Kalman filter approach

An improved unscented Kalman filter approach is proposed to enhance online state of charge estimation in terms of both accuracy and robustness. The goal is to address the drawback associated with the unscented Kalman filter in terms of its requirement for an accurate model and a priori noise statistics. Firstly, Li-ion battery modelling and offline parameter identification is performed. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis experiment is designed to verify which model parameter has the greatest influence on state of charge estimation accuracy, in order to provide an appropriate parameter for the model adaptive algorithm. Thirdly, an improved unscented Kalman filter approach, composed of a model adaptive algorithm and a noise adaptive algorithm, is introduced. Finally, the results are discussed, which reveal that the proposed approach’s estimation error is less than 1.79% with acceptable robustness and time complexity.     

A partially linearized sigma point filter for latent state estimation in nonlinear time series models

A new technique for the latent state estimation of a wide class of nonlinear time series models is proposed. In particular, we develop a partially linearized sigma point filter in which random samples of possible state values are generated at the prediction step using an exact moment-matching algorithm and then a linear programming based procedure is used in the update step of the state estimation. The effectiveness of the new filtering procedure is assessed via a simulation example that deals with a highly nonlinear, multivariate time series representing an interest rate process.     

结构经济序列分析的状态空间方法

本文讨论结构经济时间序列用状态空间模型进行分解处理的方法．在§１中综述结构时间序列的状态空间描述．§２中着重论述了将处理不完全数据的ＥＭ－算法应用于状态空间模型参数的极大似然估计．在§３中给出采用本文所述方法对一些我国宏观经济序列的计算实例．     

A new formulation of some discrete-time stochastic-parameter state estimation problems

Linear unbiased full-order state estimation problem for discrete-time models with stochastic parameters and additive finite energy type disturbance signals is reformulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Two estimation problems that are considered are the design for mean-square bounded estimation error and the design for the mean-square stochastic version of the suboptimal H_∞ estimator. These two designs are shown to apply to both the estimation with random sensor delay and estimation under observation uncertainty.     

Mixed simulation-state estimation of water distribution systems based on a least squares loop flows state estimator

This paper presents combined simulation and state estimation algorithm for water distribution systems based on the loop corrective flows and the variation of nodal demands as independent variables and it optimizes the Least Squares (LS) criterion. The combination of the two algorithms for simulation and state estimation is based on the delimitation of regions in the water network that are state estimated while for the remaining parts of the water network the simulation task is realized. The sizes of the respective delimitations can be based either on the hydraulic or topological distances from the real pressure measurements, flow measurements or measured nodal consumptions. The delimitations are realized through modifications of the inverse of the upper form tree incidence matrix which is used in order to construct the respective state estimated or simulated water network areas: the simulated nodes and pipes have the corresponding incidence columns zeroed in the inverse of the upper form tree incidence matrix while the state estimated nodes and pipes keep the values of their incidence described in the corresponding columns of the inverse of the upper form tree incidence matrix. The combined novel algorithm can be also applied to regions of water distribution systems which contain low pipe flows so that to avoid any convergence problems in the numerical algorithm. It results an efficient and effective novel mixed simulation-state estimation which is implemented on realistic water distribution systems.     

Auxiliary model based least squares identification method for a state space model with a unit time-delay

This paper considers parameter estimation problems for state space systems with time-delay. By means of the property of the shift operator, the state space systems are transformed into the input–output representations and an auxiliary model identification method is presented to estimate the system parameters. Finally, an example is provided to test the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

ARMA model order and parameter estimation using genetic algorithms

A new method for simultaneously determining the order and the parameters of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models is presented in this article. Given an ARMA (p, q) model in the absence of any information for the order, the correct order of the model (p, q) as well as the correct parameters will be simultaneously determined using genetic algorithms (GAs). These algorithms simply search the order and the parameter spaces to detect their correct values using the GA operators. The proposed method works on the principle of maximizing the GA fitness value relying on the deviation between the actual plant output, with or without an additive noise, and the estimated plant output. Simulation results show in detail the efficiency of the proposed approach. In addition to that, a practical model identification and parameter estimation is conducted in this article with results obtained as desired. The new method is compared with other well-known methods for ARMA model order and parameter estimation.     

A conservative bound on the estimation error covariance matrix in the presence of correlated driving noise and correlated discrete measurement noise

In an earlier paper, the conservative and minimal bound to the crosscorrelation terms between estimation error and a random forcing function was presented. That bound was found to be a particular linear combination of the estimation error covariance and the forcing function covariance involving a free scalar parameter. The bound was then substituted for the cross-correlation terms in the differential equation for the estimation error covariance matrix in order to approximate its behavior between discrete measurement times. The time history of the free parameter which minimized a linear combination of the elements of the estimated covariance matrix at the next measurement time was found as the noniterative solution to an optimal control problem with a matrix state.In this paper, necessary and sufficient conditions are presented for the problem of minimizing a linear combination of the elements of the approximated estimation error covariance at the end of an interval in which are linearly incorporated a finite number of discrete vector measurements corrupted by white and/or correlated measurement noise. Although the determination of the optimal trajectory in general requires iteration, a particularly simple algorithm is presented. Numerical results are presented for the case of a satellite in a highly elliptic orbit about a model Earth.     

On consistency of recursive least squares identification algorithms for controlled auto-regression models

The recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms is a popular parameter estimation one. Its consistency has received much attention in the identification literature. This paper analyzes convergence of the RLS algorithms for controlled auto-regression models (CAR models), and gives the convergence theorems of the parameter estimation by the RLS algorithms, and derives the conditions that the parameter estimates consistently converge to the true parameters under noise time-varying variance and unbounded condition number. This relaxes the assumptions that the noise variance is constant and that high-order moments are existent. Finally, the proposed algorithms are tested with two example systems, including an experimental water-level system.     

A recursive identification algorithm for switched linear/affine models

In this work, a recursive procedure is derived for the identification of switched linear models from input–output data. Starting from some initial values of the parameter vectors that represent the different submodels, the proposed algorithm alternates between data assignment to submodels and parameter update. At each time instant, the discrete state is determined as the index of the submodel that, in terms of the prediction error (or the posterior error), appears to have most likely generated the regressor vector observed at that instant. Given the estimated discrete state, the associated parameter vector is updated based on recursive least squares or any fast adaptive linear identifier. Convergence of the whole procedure although not theoretically proved, seems to be easily achieved when enough rich data are available. It has been also observed that by appropriately choosing the data assignment criterion, the proposed on-line method can be extended to deal also with the identification of piecewise affine models. Finally, performance is tested through some computer simulations and the modeling of an open channel system.     

An implicit least squares algorithm for nonlinear rational model parameter estimation

In this study a new insight into least squares regression is identified and immediately applied to estimating the parameters of nonlinear rational models. From the beginning the ordinary explicit expression for linear in the parameters model is expanded into an implicit expression. Then a generic algorithm in terms of least squares error is developed for the model parameter estimation. It has been proved that a nonlinear rational model can be expressed as an implicit linear in the parameters model, therefore, the developed algorithm can be comfortably revised for estimating the parameters of the rational models. The major advancement of the generic algorithm is its conciseness and efficiency in dealing with the parameter estimation problems associated with nonlinear in the parameters models. Further, the algorithm can be used to deal with those regression terms which are subject to noise. The algorithm is reduced to an ordinary least square algorithm in the case of linear or linear in the parameters models. Three simulated examples plus a realistic case study are used to test and illustrate the performance of the algorithm.     

Recursive state and parameter estimation with applications in water resources

Hydrologic models, as well as measurements of hydrologic processes, are corrupted by noise. The Kalman filter is a convenient tool to estimate the true but unknown state of a hydrologic system. It is, however, difficult to specify the necessary error covariances. A procedure is proposed to estimate the error covariances recursively in a combined state and parameter filter. Applications of the procedure yield meaningful results for two hydrologic data series of very different character. A major benefit of the proposed algorithm seems to be its robustness against instability.     

Enhanced consistency of the Resampled Convolution Particle Filter

Among the convolution particle filters for discrete-time dynamic systems defined by nonlinear state space models, the Resampled Convolution Filter is one of the most efficient, in terms of estimation of the conditional probability density functions (pdf’s) of the state variables and unknown parameters and in terms of implementation. This nonparametric filter is known for its almost sure L₁-convergence property. But contrarily to the other convolution filters, its almost sure punctual convergence had not yet been established. This paper is devoted to the proof of this property.     

Hierarchical least squares based iterative estimation algorithm for multivariable Box-Jenkins-like systems using the auxiliary model

This paper presents a hierarchical least squares iterative algorithm to estimate the parameters of multivariable Box-Jenkins-like systems by combining the hierarchical identification principle and the auxiliary model identification idea. The key is to decompose a multivariable systems into two subsystems by using the hierarchical identification principle. As there exist the unmeasurable noise-free outputs and noise terms in the information vector, the solution is using the auxiliary model identification idea to replace the unmeasurable variables with the outputs of the auxiliary model and the estimated residuals. A numerical example is given to show the performance of the proposed algorithm.     

Parameter estimation in linear static systems based on weighted least-absolute value estimation

In this paper, we present a new method for estimating a parameter vector of which measurements are carried out; however, these measurements are subjected to noise. First, we briefly consider least-square estimation of such vector to obtain some well-known results. Then, we proceed to formulate the problem in the least-absolute value (LAV) sense and show that we can obtain a set of overdetermined equations for the components of the unknown vector. These equations are solved using the least-square approach to ascertain which points give the least residuals. Having gained that information, we set to zero a number of residuals equal to the rank of the matrixH. Let this rank bek; then, the number of points which satisfy the LAV solution identically isk; this is a requirement that the LAV solution must satisfy (Refs. 1, 2). Several examples are presented in the paper.This work was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant A4146.     

An exact minimum variance filter for a class of discrete time systems with random parameter perturbations

An exact, closed-form minimum variance filter is designed for a class of discrete time uncertain systems which allows for both multiplicative and additive noise sources. The multiplicative noise model includes a popular class of models (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type models) in econometrics. The parameters of the system under consideration which describe the state transition are assumed to be subject to stochastic uncertainties. The problem addressed is the design of a filter that minimizes the trace of the estimation error variance. Sensitivity of the new filter to the size of parameter uncertainty, in terms of the variance of parameter perturbations, is also considered. We refer to the new filter as the ‘perturbed Kalman filter’ (PKF) since it reduces to the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter as the size of stochastic perturbation approaches zero. We also consider a related approximate filtering heuristic for univariate time series and we refer to filter based on this heuristic as approximate perturbed Kalman filter (APKF). We test the performance of our new filters on three simulated numerical examples and compare the results with unperturbed Kalman filter that ignores the uncertainty in the transition equation. Through numerical examples, PKF and APKF are shown to outperform the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter in terms of the size of the estimation error when stochastic uncertainties are present, even when the size of stochastic uncertainty is inaccurately identified.