Asymptotic properties of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters in item response theory

Asymptotic cumulants of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters using marginal likelihood in item response theory are derived up to the fourth order with added higher-order asymptotic variances under possible model misspecification. Among them, only the first asymptotic cumulant and the higher-order asymptotic variance for an estimator are different from those by maximum likelihood. Corresponding results for studentized Bayes estimators and asymptotically bias-corrected ones are also obtained. It was found that all the asymptotic cumulants of the bias-corrected Bayes estimator up to the fourth order and the higher-order asymptotic variance are identical to those by maximum likelihood with bias correction. Numerical illustrations are given with simulations in the case when the 2-parameter logistic model holds. In the numerical illustrations, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are used, where the same independent log-normal priors are employed for discriminant parameters and the hierarchical model is adopted for the prior of difficulty parameters.     

Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models

For multivariate copula-based models for which maximum likelihood is computationally difficult, a two-stage estimation procedure has been proposed previously; the first stage involves maximum likelihood from univariate margins, and the second stage involves maximum likelihood of the dependence parameters with the univariate parameters held fixed from the first stage. Using the theory of inference functions, a partitioned matrix in a form amenable to analysis is obtained for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the two-stage estimator. The asymptotic relative efficiency of the two-stage estimation procedure compared with maximum likelihood estimation is studied. Analysis of the limiting cases of the independence copula and Fréchet upper bound help to determine common patterns in the efficiency as the dependence in the model increases. For the Fréchet upper bound, the two-stage estimation procedure can sometimes be equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation for the univariate parameters. Numerical results are shown for some models, including multivariate ordinal probit and bivariate extreme value distributions, to indicate the typical level of asymptotic efficiency for discrete and continuous data.     

Estimators of the regression parameters of the zeta distribution

The zeta distribution with regression parameters has been rarely used in statistics because of the difficulty of estimating the parameters by traditional maximum likelihood. We propose an alternative method for estimating the parameters based on an iteratively reweighted least-squares algorithm. The quadratic distance estimator (QDE) obtained is consistent, asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed; the estimate can also serve as the initial value required by an algorithm to maximize the likelihood function. We illustrate the method with a numerical example from the insurance literature; we compare the values of the estimates obtained by the quadratic distance and maximum likelihood methods and their approximate variance–covariance matrix. Finally, we calculate the bias, variance and the asymptotic efficiency of the QDE compared to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for some values of the parameters.     

Standard errors for the cox proportional hazards cure model

Standard errors for the maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters in the logistic-proportional-hazards cure model are proposed using an approximate profile likelihood approach and a nonparametric likelihood. Two methods are given and are compared with the standard errors obtained from the inverse of the joint observed information matrix of the regression parameters and the nuisance hazard parameters. The observed information matrix is derived and is shown to be an approximation of the conditional information matrix of the regression parameters given the hazard parameters. Simulations indicate that the standard errors obtained from the inverse of the observed information matrix based on the profile likelihood and the full likelihood are comparable and appropriate. The coverage rates for the logistic regression parameter are generally good. The proportional hazards regression parameter show reasonable coverage rates under ideal conditions but lower coverage rates when the incidence proportion is low or when censoring is heavy. The three methods are applied to a data set to investigate the effects of radiation therapy on tonsil cancer.     

基于经验似然的部分线性模型的统计诊断

经验似然方法己经被广泛应用于许多模型的统计推断.本文基于经验似然对部分线性模型进行统计诊断.首先给出模型的估计方程,进而得到模型参数的极大经验似然估计;其次,基于经验似然研究了三种不同的影响曲率;最后通过随机模拟和实例分析,说明了统计诊断方法的有效性.     

Bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and associated inference

Univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model positively skewed data, especially lifetime data and crack growth data. In this paper, we introduce bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution which is an absolutely continuous distribution whose marginals are univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distributions. Different properties of this bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution are then discussed. This new family has five unknown parameters and it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained by solving two non-linear equations. We also propose simple modified moment estimators for the unknown parameters which are explicit and can therefore be used effectively as an initial guess for the computation of the maximum likelihood estimators. We then present the asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators and use them to construct confidence intervals for the parameters. We also discuss likelihood ratio tests for some hypotheses of interest. Monte Carlo simulations are then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed estimators. Finally, a numerical data analysis is performed in order to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Estimating parameters in one-way analysis of covariance model with short-tailed symmetric error distributions

We consider one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model with a single covariate when the distribution of error terms are short-tailed symmetric. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the parameters are intractable. We, therefore, employ a simple method known as modified maximum likelihood (MML) to derive the estimators of the model parameters. The method is based on linearization of the intractable terms in likelihood equations. Incorporating these linearizations in the maximum likelihood, we get the modified likelihood equations. Then the MML estimators which are the solutions of these modified equations are obtained. Computer simulations were performed to investigate the efficiencies of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed estimators are remarkably efficient compared with the conventional least squares (LS) estimators.     

A modified candecomp algorithm for fitting the latent class model: Implementation and evaluation

In this paper an implementation is discussed of a modified CANDECOMP algorithm for fitting Lazarsfeld's latent class model. The CANDECOMP algorithm is modified such that the resulting parameter estimates are non-negative and ‘best asymptotically normal’. In order to achieve this, the modified CANDECOMP algorithm minimizes a weighted least squares function instead of an unweighted least squares function as the traditional CANDECOMP algorithm does. To evaluate the new procedure, the modified CANDECOMP procedure with different weighting schemes is compared on five published data sets with the widely-used iterative proportional fitting procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the latent class model. It is found that, with appropriate weights, the modified CANDECOMP algorithm yields solutions that are nearly identical with those obtained by means of the maximum likelihood procedure. While the modified CANDECOMP algorithm tends to be computationally more intensive than the maximum likelihood method, it is very flexible in that it easily allows one to try out different weighting schemes.     

A Two-Parameter Distribution Obtained by Compounding the Generalized Exponential and Exponential Distributions

We introduce a new two-parameter lifetime distribution obtained by compounding the generalized exponential and exponential distributions. We assume that the shape parameter of the generalized exponential distribution is a random variable having the exponential distribution. The shapes of the density and hazard rate functions are derived. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood, and an application of the proposed distribution is presented.

     

On Burr XII Distribution Analysis Under Progressive Type-II Hybrid Censored Data

In the current paper, based on progressive type-II hybrid censored samples, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimates for the two parameter Burr XII distribution are obtained. We propose the use of expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of model parameters. Further, we derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the MLEs by applying the missing information principle and it can be utilized to construct asymptotic confidence intervals (CIs) for the parameters. The Bayes estimates of the unknown parameters are obtained under the assumption of gamma priors by using Lindley’s approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. Also, MCMC samples are used to construct the highest posterior density (HPD) credible intervals. Simulation study is conducted to investigate the accuracy of the estimates and compare the performance of CIs obtained. Finally, one real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

A quasi Bayesian approach to outlier detection

Summary A quasi Bayesian procedure is developed for the detection of outliers. A particular Gaussian distribution with ordered means is assumed as the basic model of the data distribution. By introducing a definition of the likelihood of a model whose parameters are determined by the method of maximum likelihood, the posterior probability of the model is obtained for a particular choice of the prior probability distribution. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the practical utility of the procedure. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

Explicit estimators of parameters in the Growth Curve model with linearly structured covariance matrices

Estimation of parameters in the classical Growth Curve model, when the covariance matrix has some specific linear structure, is considered. In our examples maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained explicitly and must rely on optimization algorithms. Therefore explicit estimators are obtained as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimators. From a discussion about residuals, a simple non-iterative estimation procedure is suggested which gives explicit and consistent estimators of both the mean and the linear structured covariance matrix.     

Generalizing the Pareto to the log-Pareto model and statistical inference

In this article we introduce a full-fledged statistical model of log-Pareto distribution functions (dfs) parametrized by two shape parameters and a scale parameter. Pareto dfs can be regained in the limit by varying parameters of log-Pareto dfs, whence the log-Pareto model can be regarded as an extension of the Pareto model. Log-Pareto dfs are first of all obtained by means of exponential transformations of Pareto dfs. We also indicate an iterated application of such a procedure. A class of generalized log-Pareto dfs is considered as well. In addition, power-pot (p-pot) stable dfs – related to p-max stable dfs – are introduced and log-Pareto dfs are identified as special cases. A modification of a quick (systematic) estimator is proposed as an initial estimator for the numerical computation of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in the 3-parameter model.      

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton’s model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the ‘Expectation-Maximization’ method for estimating parameters.     

Estimating the parameters of a fatigue model using Benders’ decomposition

This paper shows how Benders decomposition can be used for estimating the parameters of a fatigue model. The objective function of such model depends on five parameters of different nature. This makes the parameter estimation problem of the fatigue model suitable for the Benders decomposition, which allows us to use well-behaved and robust parameter estimation methods for the different subproblems. To build the Benders cuts, explicit formulas for the sensitivities (partial derivatives) are obtained. This permits building the classical iterative method, in which upper and lower bounds of the optimal value of the objective function are obtained until convergence. Two alternative objective functions to be optimized are the likelihood and the sum of squares error functions, which relate to the maximum likelihood and the minimum error principles, respectively. The method is illustrated by its application to a real-world problem.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in a partially observed stratified regression model with censored data

The stratified proportional intensity model generalizes Cox’s proportional intensity model by allowing different groups of the population under study to have distinct baseline intensity functions. In this article, we consider the problem of estimation in this model when the variable indicating the stratum is unobserved for some individuals in the studied sample. In this setting, we construct nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the stratified model and we establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. Consistent estimators for the limiting variances are also obtained.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate linear functional relationship

Many authors have discussed maximum likelihood estimation in the simple linear functional relationship model. In this paper, we derive maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for parameters in a much more general model. Several special cases including the multivariate linear functional relationship model are discussed. Estimators of some of the parameters are shown to be inconsistent.     

Computing Estimates in the Proportional Odds Model

The semiparametric proportional odds model for survival data is useful when mortality rates of different groups converge over time. However, fitting the model by maximum likelihood proves computationally cumbersome for large datasets because the number of parameters exceeds the number of uncensored observations. We present here an alternative to the standard Newton-Raphson method of maximum likelihood estimation. Our algorithm, an example of a minorization-maximization (MM) algorithm, is guaranteed to converge to the maximum likelihood estimate whenever it exists. For large problems, both the algorithm and its quasi-Newton accelerated counterpart outperform Newton-Raphson by more than two orders of magnitude.     

One-step estimation of spatial dependence parameters: Properties and extensions of the APLE statistic

We consider one-step estimation of parameters that represent the strength of spatial dependence in a geostatistical or lattice spatial model. While the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of spatial dependence parameters are known to have various desirable properties, they do not have closed-form expressions. Therefore, we consider a one-step alternative to maximum likelihood estimation based on solving an approximate (i.e., one-step) profile likelihood estimating equation. The resulting approximate profile likelihood estimator (APLE) has a closed-form representation, making it a suitable alternative to the widely used Moran’s I statistic. Since the finite-sample and asymptotic properties of one-step estimators of covariance-function parameters have not been studied rigorously, we explore these properties for the APLE of the spatial dependence parameter in the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model. Motivated by the APLE statistic’s closed from, we develop exploratory spatial data analysis tools that capture regions of local clustering or the extent to which the strength of spatial dependence varies across space. We illustrate these exploratory tools using both simulated data and observed crime rates in Columbus, OH.     

偏正态数据下众数回归模型的统计诊断

为了更好地拟合偏态数据,充分提取偏态数据的信息,针对偏正态数据建立了众数回归模型,并基于Pena距离统计量对众数回归模型进行统计断研究,得到了众数回归模型的Pena距离表达式以及高杠杆异常点的诊断方法.利用EM算法与梯度下降法给出了众数回归模型参数的极大似然估计,根据数据删除模型计算似然距离、Cook距离和Pena距离统计量,绘制诊断统计图.通过Monte Carlo模拟试验和实例分析比较,说明文章提出的方法行之有效,并在一定条件下Pena距离对异常点或强影响点的诊断优于似然距离和Cook距离.