我国出口外溢效应的经验研究

通过对外贸易来促进经济增长的战略日益受到重视,很多学者对此进行了定量研究。本文在菲德模型基础上建立了测量出口外溢性的动态模型,并使用中国的经济数据对我国出口生产外溢效应进行了实证分析,得出了我国出口部门生产外溢性不明显和边际要素生产率低下的实证结论。本文对实证结论进行了分析,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

人民币汇率、汇率风险对中国对美国出口的经济影响分析

汇率影响出口有两个途径,一是汇率变动(升值或贬值),二是汇率波动(汇率风险).2003年以来,中国一直面临人民币升值的压力,特别是来自美国和日本对人民币重新估值的压力;人民币汇率升值是否对出口产生负面效应,影响程度有多大,一直是这段时期的关注焦点.本文利用1990.01-2007.08间的月度数据主要从时间序列数据的季节效应分解(UCM)、自回归建模(自回归-GARCH)和动态条件相关系数(DCC)三个角度实证的分析了人民币汇率升值对中国对美国出口的经济影响,几个不同的角度,都揭示了人民币汇率升值会减少中国对美国的出口;本文还发现汇率风险的增加会减少出口贸易的增速.通过动态条件相关系数分析发现实际汇率对出口的解释能力为20%-30%;通过汇率对出口的弹性分析发现人民币月度汇率弹性为150～220(亿元/人民币兑美元);此外,近两年实际汇率升值起点滞后名义汇率升值起点1年左右,而中国对美国的出口又滞后实际汇率的升值起点3-4个月.最后,本文指出通过有效地抑制通货膨胀,降低美元储备,转移汇率风险等途径在一定程度上可缓解人民币汇率升值压力和对冲汇率风险.     

Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth—a comparison of linear and non‐linear (forecasting) models

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost all empirical contributions assume and estimate a linear relationship. Possible nonlinearity or state dependence of causal links between FX uncertainty and trade has been mostly ignored yet. In addition, widely used regression models have not been evaluated in terms of ex‐ante forecasting. In this paper we analyse the impact of FX uncertainty on sectoral categories of multilateral exports and imports for 15 industrialized economies. We particularly provide a comparison of linear and non‐linear models with respect to ex‐ante forecasting. In terms of average ranks of absolute forecast errors non‐linear models outperform both, a common linear model and some specification building on the assumption that FX uncertainty and trade growth are uncorrelated. Our results support the view that the relationship of interest might be non‐linear and, moreover, lacks of homogeneity across countries, economic sectors and when contrasting imports vs exports. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bilateral representation of trade for inter- regional models

A representation of trade is given for an inter-regional model in which the origin and destination of exports and imports of each commodity traded can be tracked. This representation retains the structure of the original model (i.e. one with trade ‘pools’ undifferentiated by origin or destination) in that the same algebraic and computational tools can be used, with minor modifications. Scenarios that can be studied with this formulation but not with the original one are presented.     

碳关税对发展中国家的经济影响及对策分析

研究碳关税对美国进口贸易的影响,以碳关税与普通关税的区别为出发点,建立一个3阶段博弈模型,导出最优碳关税和最优出口补贴的表达式.结果显示:引入碳关税将减少发展中国家对美国出口,并能增加发达国家的福利.此外,还考察了影响碳关税水平的一些重要因素,包括机会成本、补贴时机、企业数目、产品水平差异化和市场分割,针对这些因素,提出了发展中国家应对碳关税政策的对策建议.     

Economic freedom ranking of 161 countries in year 2000: a minimum disagreement approach

Since 1995, the Heritage Foundation has published the economic freedom index for countries throughout the world. The fundamental challenge is how to objectively measure economic freedom so that the index can be fair, credible and has the least disagreements among all countries. In this paper, we propose a new approach to construct economic freedom ranking which minimizes disagreements among countries. The mathematical model consists of two stages: (1) calculate the set of weights for each country which would give each country the best ranking, and (2) aggregation of ranks from all countries to minimize their disagreements. We apply the model to the data set of year 2000 on Economic Freedom from the Heritage Foundation, and find that the minimum disagreements from the proposed ranking improves by 9%.     

Control and game-theoretic assessment of climate change: Options for Joint Implementation

The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) demands reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by the industrialized countries, while developing countries are still permitted to expand their energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. To identify, assess and compare options for avoiding and minimizing anthropogenic climate change, the framework of dynamic-game models (the SCX conflict model and the problem-specific TEM model) is applied to analyze the interaction between energy technologies, emission reductions and economic output with regard to energy use and the relationship between conflict and cooperation in climate policy. Basic variables are energy production, emissions into the enviroment, the energy price and the economic output. Major control parameters are the allocation of funding with regard to various energy options and the degree of international cooperation through technology transfer and capital flow. In particular, the impact of cooperation between industrialized and developing countries is evaluated to understand the role of governments in the transition to sustainable market economies. Simulations and numerical results are presented which can be used in a constructive way to implement a Joint-Implementation Program as an advanced market institution. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中美经济冲击传播途径研究

本文应用近似因子模型以及因子增广的向量自回归模型,考察了1995～2009年间美国的经济冲击对我国经济的传播渠道.本文发现出口和消费者信息指数比进口以及金融市场对美国的经济冲击更为敏感;而就冲击的类型来看,美国经济的需求冲击比供给冲击对我国经济的影响更大.     

人民币升值对中国出口品价格的影响研究

人民币升值对中国进出口贸易的影响,主要是通过价格竞争机制完成的.首先分析了人民币升值影响中国出口品价格的传导路径;然后利用计量经济模型估计了各个部门产品的进口需求函数;同时考虑到进口品对国内生产品的替代和部门间的价格传导,利用反映加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型分情景分析了人民币汇率上升对中国各个部门加工贸易出口品价格和一般贸易出口品价格的影响,得到了非常具有现实意义的结论.     

Is the predictability of emerging and developed stock markets really exploitable?

A number of recent papers have analyzed the degree of predictability of stock markets. In this paper, we firstly study whether this predictability is really exploitable and secondly, if the economic significance of predictability is higher or lower in the emerging stock markets than in the developed ones. We use a variety of linear and nonlinear – Artificial Neural Networks – models and perform a computationally demanding forecasting experiment to assess the predictability of returns. Since we are interested in comparing the predictability in economic terms we also propose a modification in the nets’ loss function for market trading purposes. In addition, we consider both explicit and implicit trading costs for emerging and developed stock markets. Our conclusions suggest that, in contrast to some previous studies, if we consider total trading costs both the emerging as well as the developed stock returns are clearly nonpredictable. Finally, we find that Artificial Neural Networks do not provide superior performance than the linear models.     

基于面板协整的纺织品贸易与经济增长关系研究

采用面板协整方法对我国27个省市的纺织品贸易与纺织行业经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究,结果表明纺织品贸易与经济增长之间存在稳定的面板协整关系,纺织品出口对纺织行业经济增长起很大的促进作用.     

Comparative regional GDP analysis: case study of Croatia

The focus of this paper is the regional GDP analysis of Croatian Counties. It is a part of an extensive on-going scientific research about Croatian economic challenges within the global recession environment. Although, as EU accession country, Croatia is divided into three NUTS 2 regions, twenty one Croatian Counties show significant economic and social disproportions. In multiple regression model it is researched to what extent regional GDP per capita depends on a set of regional variables (employment, gross investment, production of more important agricultural products, GVA per person employed, construction works value, exports, imports, foreign tourists arrivals, foreign tourist nights, ecology...). Subsequently parameters are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations which are used for the first time in comparative regional analysis. Also Croatian Counties are classified using Cluster analysis to make a comparative analysis with official spacing into three NUTS 2 regions which are geographical and political areas rather than real and homogenous socio-economic areas.     

Conflict Analysis in the Politico-Military Environment of a New World Order

A methodology is developed to analyse present and future crisis and conflict potentials of small or large geopolitical regions. A set of criteria is used to describe the present economic, social, political and military conditions of a country and the future criteria trends. A multi-criteria decision analysis model is invoked to compute the crisis and conflict potentials under simultaneous consideration of all other countries in that region. The methodology is demonstrated in the crisis and conflict potentials analysis of the former Soviet republics including bordering countries.     

Supply chain optimization of petroleum organization under uncertainty in market demands and prices

A multi-period stochastic planning model has been developed and implemented for a supply chain network of a petroleum organization operating in an oil producing country under uncertain market conditions. The proposed supply chain network consists of all activities related to crude oil production, processing and distribution. Uncertainties were introduced in market demands and prices. A deterministic optimization model was first developed and tested. The impact of uncertainty on the supply chain was studied by performing a sensitivity analysis in which ±20% deviations were introduced in market demands and prices of different commodities. A stochastic formulation was then proposed, which is based on the two-stage problem with finite number of realizations. The proposed stochastic programming approach proved to be quite effective in developing resilient production plans in light of high degree of uncertainty in market conditions. The anticipated production plans have a considerably lower expected value of perfect information (EVPI). The main conclusion of this study is that for an oil producing country with oil processing capabilities, the impact of economic uncertainties may be tolerated by an appropriate balance between crude exports and processing capacities.     

Scheduling of brand production and shipping within a sugar supply chain

The Australian sugar industry exports about 90% of its five million tonne annual sugar production on the open market to customers in several countries, who request various brands of raw sugar. In planning at this interface of the sugar supply chain, an objective is to schedule the brands of sugar each mill produces throughout the annual harvest season, along with the ports that each ship loads at, to minimize total costs of sugar production and shipping. The complexity of such planning for the sugar industry has been overcome through the development and solution of a mixed-integer programming model to perform the task. The model is used as an annual planning tool to obtain a base schedule, as well as a rescheduling tool to revise the plan during the year as mill production rates and shipments change. Using the Australian sugar industry as a case study, this paper focuses on the mathematical model and solution using two known meta-heuristics based on local search. Using the 2002/2003 and 2003/2004 financial years, a comparison is made between the schedules produced in practice using manual methods and those using the model, which show a total potential cost savings of up to AU$4.0?M for the 2 years.     

转轨经济中财政与金融政策的一个基本原则

对转轨经济中由政府部门、企业和个人所组成的经济系统建立了一个货币经济动力学模型.通过对模型的均衡分析和动力学分析,阐明了在转轨经济中特别是当经济处于不景气情形时,财政、金融政策的一个基本原则是实行价格稳定化政策.     

Stabilization analysis for economic compartmental switched systems based on quadratic Lyapunov function

The compartmental model is one of the important applications in economic and social dynamic systems which are made of numbers of units-subsystems. Stabilization of economic compartmental switched systems with compartmental subsystems is studied in this paper. A quadratic Lyapunov function is introduced to construct switching law in order to stabilize these kinds of mathematical economic and social models. Necessary and sufficient conditions of stabilization are presented for both asynchronous and synchronous switching. Precisely, after a proper change in state space, stabilization conditions can be expressed in terms of matrix inequalities. At the same time, definitions, theorems and corollaries as well as a detailed simulation result of one example are presented to show the effectiveness of the main result obtained.     

贸易发展对旅游的溢出效应研究——基于中国—东盟的实证检验

贸易和旅游作为"贸易畅通"和"民心相通"的重要内容,在促进经济合作和文化传播等方面发挥着重要作用,然而贸易对旅游溢出效应的探讨尚不充分.本文基于1995-2017年中国—东盟贸易和旅游面板数据,运用拓展引力和门槛效应等模型,探讨贸易发展对旅游的溢出效应.实证结果:1)贸易发展对旅游存在显著溢出效应,且"出口对入境"溢出大于"进口对出境";通过工具变量法、剔除金融危机影响,以及时变性检验表明结果稳健可靠;2)自中国—东盟自贸区筹备、启动、建成,贸易对旅游的溢出效应先增加后减弱;3)不同贸易产品对旅游溢出效应存在异质性,"出口对入境"的溢出效应依次是技术、劳动和资源密集型,"进口对出境"溢出效应依次是劳动、资源、技术密集型.本研究为中国—东盟旅游和贸易合作与政策制定,提供了一个新的视角.     

Ranking of countries in sporting events using two-stage data envelopment analysis models: a case of Summer Olympic Games 2016

After important sport events as the Summer Olympic Games (SOG) are, the participating countries are ranked according to the number of gold, silver and bronze medals. A lexicographic ranking is usually applied in official reports which leads to higher ranking of countries with one gold and no other medals comparing to countries without any gold but with several silver or bronze medals. Moreover, this ranking does not take into account the specific conditions of the countries (population, economic strength measured by gross domestic product and tradition in sports). The aim of the paper is not only to evaluate the absolute achievements of the countries but evaluate their performance with respect to the resources they can spent. A two-stage data envelopment analysis model is formulated and solved by an original slack-based measure procedure. The first stage evaluates the performance of the countries in training of athletes and the second stage evaluates the achievements of the nominated athletes. The models with variable returns to scale and weight restrictions are applied. The models and their results are illustrated on the case of Olympic Games 2016 and compared with results given by traditional approaches.     

Development of weapon systems in developing countries: a case study of long range strategies in Taiwan

A long period of economic and industrial development has allowed developing countries to evolve into newly industrialised countries (NICs). Simultaneously, the development of their major weapon systems has evolved from foreign weapons acquisition to independent development due to establishing research and development (R&D) capabilities. However, competitive pressures in the international arms market has finally led these countries to return to foreign acquisition, consequently rapidly eroding their R&D capability. Balancing foreign acquisition and independent development is a long-term strategic problem for NICs. This study applies the system dynamics methodology to construct a weapon systems development model for Taiwan. This model is used to analyse the impact of acquisition policy. The results here indicate three major possible growth curves for weapon systems R&D capability based on alternative weapon systems acquisition policies.