Fluctuations of empirical means at low temperature for finite Markov chains with rare transitions in the general case

Summary. The integrated autocovariance and autocorrelation time are essential tools to understand the dynamical behavior of a Markov chain. We study here these two objects for Markov chains with rare transitions with no reversibility assumption. We give upper bounds for the autocovariance and the integrated autocorrelation time, as well as exponential equivalents at low temperature. We also link their slowest modes with the underline energy landscape under mild assumptions. Our proofs will be based on large deviation estimates coming from the theory of Wentzell and Freidlin and others [4, 3, 12], and on coupling arguments (see [6] for a review on the coupling method). Received 5 August 1996 / In revised form: 6 August 1997     

Fluctuation limits of site-dependent branching systems in critical and large dimensions

In this paper, some limit processes of occupation time fluctuations of the branching particle systems with varied branching laws from site to site are obtained. The results show that the varied branching laws can not affect the limit processes and the scaling parameters in the case of large dimensions, but in the case of critical dimensions, under suitable assumptions, it changes the limit processes with simple and isotropic spatial structures to those with complicated and anisotropic spatial structures and gives log corrections in the scaling parameters.     

Sampling per mode for rare event simulation in switching diffusions

A straightforward application of an interacting particle system to estimate a rare event for switching diffusions fails to produce reasonable estimates within a reasonable amount of simulation time. To overcome this, a conditional “sampling per mode” algorithm has been proposed by Krystul in [10]; instead of starting the algorithm with particles randomly distributed, we draw in each mode, a fixed number particles and at each resampling step, the same number of particles is sampled for each visited mode. In this paper, we establish a law of large numbers as well as a central limit theorem for the estimate.     

Large deviations for Markov processes with mean field interaction and unbounded jumps

Summary An N-particle system with mean field interaction is considered. The large deviation estimates for the empirical distributions as N goes to infinity are obtained under conditions which are satisfied, by many interesting models including the first and the second Schlögl models.Supported partially by a scholarship from the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research of Carleton University and the NSERC operating grant of D.A. Dawson     

大型自行车共享系统的平均场极限理论与排队模型研究

人口的快速增长与空间的高度城市化带来了汽车尾气污染等环境污染问题,这已成为影响社会可持续发展的主要制约因素。基于此,近十年来自行车共享系统在世界多个国家的许多重要城市获得了高度重视并取得了迅速发展。然而,相比于自行车共享系统的快速发展,其相关研究却并未取得较大进展,主要原因在于它是一个大型的复杂系统,涉及密集的城市交通、异构的运营环境、多重的顾客偏好选择以及多渠道的收益管理等多种关联因素。在这种背景下,本文建立了一个通用的大型自行车共享系统,并提出了一种基于平均场极限理论与非时齐排队模型相结合的有效随机模型分析方法,包括利用平均场理论建立了非时齐排队系统、构建了经验测度过程(Empirical measure process)的非线性生灭过程、给出了分段结构下生灭过程的固定点的“几何之和”算法以及提供了问题站点稳态概率的数值计算等等。本文为研究大型自行车共享系统的随机模型提供了一个重要的发展途径,并有望能够用于分析更加一般的大型自行车共享系统。     

Large deviations for random dynamical systems and applications to hidden Markov models

In this paper, we prove the large deviation principle (LDP) for the occupation measures of not necessarily irreducible random dynamical systems driven by Markov processes. The LDP for not necessarily irreducible dynamical systems driven by i.i.d. sequence is derived. As a further application we establish the LDP for extended hidden Markov models, filling a gap in the literature, and obtain large deviation estimations for the log-likelihood process and maximum likelihood estimator of hidden Markov models.     

A note on inverse mean curvature flow in cosmological spacetimes

In 12 Gerhardt proves longtime existence for the inverse mean curvature flow in globally hyperbolic Lorentzian manifolds with compact Cauchy hypersurface, which satisfy three main structural assumptions: a strong volume decay condition, a mean curvature barrier condition and the timelike convergence condition. Furthermore, it is shown in 12 that the leaves of the inverse mean curvature flow provide a foliation of the future of the initial hypersurface.We show that this result persists, if we generalize the setting by leaving the mean curvature barrier assumption out. For initial hypersurfaces with sufficiently large mean curvature we can weaken the timelike convergence condition to a physically relevant energy condition.     

Large deviations for empirical measures with degenerate limiting distribution

Summary This paper studies the large deviations of the empirical measure associated withn independent random variables with a degenerate limiting distribution asn. A large deviations principle — quite unlike the classical Sanov type results — is established for such empirical measures in a general Polish space setting. This result is applied to the large deviations for the empirical process of a system of interacting particles, in which the diffusion coefficient vanishes as the number of particles tends to infinity. A second way in which the present example differs from previous work on similar weakly interacting systems is that there is a singularity in the mean-field type interaction.     

Large deviations for increasing sequences on the plane

We prove a large deviation principle with explicit rate functions for the length of the longest increasing sequence among Poisson points on the plane. The rate function for lower tail deviations is derived from a 1977 result of Logan and Shepp about Young diagrams of random permutations. For the upper tail we use a coupling with Hammersley's particle process and convex-analytic techniques. Along the way we obtain the rate function for the lower tail of a tagged particle in a totally asymmetric Hammersley's process. Received: 22 July 1997 / Revised version: 23 March 1998     

Openness stability and implicit multifunction theorems: Applications to variational systems

In this paper we aim to present two general results regarding, on one hand, the openness stability of set-valued maps and, on the other hand, the metric regularity behavior of the implicit multifunction related to a generalized variational system. Then, these results are applied in order to obtain, in a natural way, and in a widely studied case, several relations between the metric regularity moduli of the field maps defining the variational system and the solution map. Our approach allows us to complete and extend several very recent results from the literature.     

Recursive analysis of singular ordinary differential equations

We investigate systems of ordinary differential equations with a parameter. We show that under suitable assumptions on the systems the solutions are computable in the sense of recursive analysis. As an application we give a complete characterization of the recursively enumerable sets using Fourier coefficients of recursive analytic functions that are generated by differential equations and elementary operations.     

Weak convergence of random <Emphasis Type="Bold">p</Emphasis>-mappings and the exploration process of inhomogeneous continuum random trees

We study the asymptotics of the p-mapping model of random mappings on [n] as n gets large, under a large class of asymptotic regimes for the underlying distribution p. We encode these random mappings in random walks which are shown to converge to a functional of the exploration process of inhomogeneous random trees, this exploration process being derived (Aldous-Miermont-Pitman 2004) from a bridge with exchangeable increments. Our setting generalizes previous results by allowing a finite number of “attracting points” to emerge.Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-0203062.Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-0071468.     

Large deviations for stochastic partial differential equations driven by a Poisson random measure

Stochastic partial differential equations driven by Poisson random measures (PRMs) have been proposed as models for many different physical systems, where they are viewed as a refinement of a corresponding noiseless partial differential equation (PDE). A systematic framework for the study of probabilities of deviations of the stochastic PDE from the deterministic PDE is through the theory of large deviations. The goal of this work is to develop the large deviation theory for small Poisson noise perturbations of a general class of deterministic infinite dimensional models. Although the analogous questions for finite dimensional systems have been well studied, there are currently no general results in the infinite dimensional setting. This is in part due to the fact that in this setting solutions may have little spatial regularity, and thus classical approximation methods for large deviation analysis become intractable. The approach taken here, which is based on a variational representation for nonnegative functionals of general PRMs, reduces the proof of the large deviation principle to establishing basic qualitative properties for controlled analogues of the underlying stochastic system. As an illustration of the general theory, we consider a particular system that models the spread of a pollutant in a waterway.     

Large deviations and related problems for absorbing Markov chains

In this paper, large deviations and their connections with several other fundamental topics are investigated for absorbing Markov chains. A variational representation for the Dirichlet principal eigenvalues is given by the large deviation approach. Kingman’s decay parameters and mean ratio quasi-stationary distributions of the chains are also characterized by the large deviation rate function. As an application of these results, we interpret the “stationarity” of mean ratio quasi-stationary distributions via a concrete example. An application to quasi-ergodicity is also discussed.     

On large deviations for particle systems associated with spatially homogeneous Boltzmann type equations

Summary We consider a dynamical interacting particle system whose empirical distribution tends to the solution of a spatially homogeneous Boltzmann type equation, as the number of particles tends to infinity. These laws of large numbers were proved for the Maxwellian molecules by H. Tanaka [Tal] and for the hard spheres by A.S. Sznitman [Szl]. In the present paper we investigate the corresponding large deviations: the large deviation upper bound is obtained and, using convex analysis, a non-variational formulation of the rate function is given. Our results hold for Maxwellian molecules with a cutoff potential and for hard spheres.     

A New Approach to Linearly Perturbed Riccati Equations Arising in Stochastic Control

In this paper a linearly perturbed version of the well-known matrix Riccati equations which arise in certain stochastic optimal control problems is studied. Via the concepts of mean square stabilizability and mean square detectability we improve previous results on both the convergence properties of the linearly perturbed Riccati differential equation and the solutions of the linearly perturbed algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, our approach unifies, in some way, the study for this class of Riccati equations with the one for classical theory, by eliminating a certain inconvenient assumption used in previous works (e.g., [10] and [26]). The results are derived under relatively weaker assumptions and include, inter alia, the following: (a) An extension of Theorem 4.1 of [26] to handle systems not necessarily observable. (b) The existence of a strong solution, subject only to the mean square stabilizability assumption. (c) Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of stabilizing solutions for systems not necessarily detectable. (d) Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of mean square stabilizing solutions instead of just stabilizing. (e) Relaxing the assumptions for convergence of the solution of the linearly perturbed Riccati differential equation and deriving new convergence results for systems not necessarily observable. Accepted 30 July 1996     

Schilder theorem for the Brownian motion on the diffeomorphism group of the circle

We prove a large deviation principle for flows associated to stochastic differential equations with non-Lipschitz coefficients. As an application we establish a Schilder Theorem for the Brownian motion on the group of diffeomorphisms of the circle.     

Cramér's asymptotics in systems with fast and slow motions

This paper is devoted to the averaging principle for stochastic systems with slow and intermixing fast motions. Here we (i) prove the existence of the Cramér type asymptotics for the probabilities of large deviations from an averaged motion, which implies the central limit theorem, and (ii) develop an analytic procedure for computation of this asymptotics. We use general apparatus of superregular perturbations of fiber ergodic semigroups to investigate two systems in the same way. The first of them is a cascade in which slow motions are determined by a vector field depending both on slow and fast variables, and fast motions compose a Markov chain depending on the slow variable. The second is a process defined by a system of two stochastic differential equations.     

A Lax equivalence theorem for stochastic differential equations

In this paper, a stochastic mean square version of Lax’s equivalence theorem for Hilbert space valued stochastic differential equations with additive and multiplicative noise is proved. Definitions for consistency, stability, and convergence in mean square of an approximation of a stochastic differential equation are given and it is shown that these notions imply similar results as those known for approximations of deterministic partial differential equations. Examples show that the assumptions made are met by standard approximations.