一类带有非线性接触率的SIR传染病模型的稳定性

分析传染病模型的稳定性,并考虑到已感染者对易感染者的作用是非线性的.文中首先研究了传染病模型解的正性和最终有界性.在此基础上,当基本再生数满足一定条件时,构造一个满足条件的Lyapunov函数,证明了无病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类带有种群迁移的SIS传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设同一地区内易感者和染病者具有相同的迁移率系数,建立了一类两地区间种群迁移的SIS传染病模型,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件,并借助比较定理和极限系统理论证明了无病平衡点和疾病不导致死亡时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,最后讨论了种群迁移对传染病传播的影响.     

一类具时滞SIR传染病模型的动力行为

分析传染病模型的稳定性,并考虑到已感染者对易感染者的作用的时滞影响.文中首先在R_01时,构造一个Lyapunov泛函,证明了无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.当R_01时,证明了正平衡点的局部渐近稳定性和持久性.     

染病者有常数输入的传染病模型

讨论在隔离措施下易感者和染病者都有常数移民的传染病模型.给出了模型的地方病平衡点,证明了地方病平衡点的稳定性.     

一类具密度制约SIS模型的全局稳定性和周期性

研究了一类具密度制约和双线性传染率的S IS传染病模型,考虑到了实际中对易感者和传染者的控制,得到了地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性和系统的周期性,并给出了生物学解释和仿真.     

具有阶段结构和恐惧效应的传染病模型的稳定性与Hopf分支

本文考虑具有阶段结构和恐惧效应的一类种群的传染病模型的稳定性与Hopf分支.首先,分析在一定条件下种群数量的长时间性态;接着利用线性稳定性理论讨论平衡点的局部稳定性,在正平衡点稳定的情况下讨论恐惧程度对易感者幼年种群、易感者成年种群以及染病者成年种群的数量的影响;最后利用分支理论给出Hopf分支存在的条件,并通过数值模拟验证结论的可行性.     

一类带有接种的SIR传染病模型的全局分析

基于经典的SIR传染病模型,建立了一类具有接种的SIR-V传染病模型,考虑了被接种者具有确定免疫期和免疫力按指数消失两种情形,得到了相应的基本再生数,并证明了其全局渐近稳定性.     

一类具有一般发生率的阶段结构传染病模型的稳定性

建立了一类具有一般发生率的阶段结构传染病模型,利用Hurwitz判据和极限系统理论知识等,分别讨论了染病者无输入和染病者有输入时,疾病消除平衡点和地方病平衡点的局部和全局稳定性,得到了一些重要结论,并对所得结果进行了数值模拟.     

一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型的全局分析

通过假设被传染的易感者一部分经过一段潜伏期后才具有传染性,而另一部分被感染的易感者直接成为传染者,建立了一类带有非线性传染率的SEIR传染病模型,得到了确定疾病是否成为地方病的基本再生数以及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类具有阶段结构和分布时滞的种群-传染病模型

讨论了一类具有阶段结构和分布时滞的种群-传染病模型.在模型中,假设染病者没有生育能力.通过分析讨论,得到了地方病平衡点存在的阈值条件及平衡点稳定性和持续生存的充分条件.     

A mathematical model of infectious diseases

In the formulation of models for the spread of communicable diseases which include removal and population dynamics, it is necessary to distinguish between removal through recovery with immunity and removal by death due to disease. This distinction must be made because of the difference in the effect on the population dynamics of the different kinds of removal and because there are significant differences in the behavior of the models. We have formulated a class of models which allow recovery with immunity for a fraction of the infective and permanent removal by death from disease for the remainder. Earlier models of this type have postulated an increased death rate for infective, but such models are restricted to exponentially distributed-infective periods. Because of the differences in behavior between models with recovery and models with permanent removal do not arise when the infective period is exponentially distributed, we have chosen to formulate a different type of model which is sufficiently general to admit qualitative differences.     

Role of Pectoral Fin Flexibility in Robotic Fish Performance

Pectoral fins play a vital role in the maneuvering and locomotion of fish, and they have become an important actuation mechanism for robotic fish. In this paper, we explore the effect of flexibility of robotic fish pectoral fins on the robot locomotion performance and mechanical efficiency. A dynamic model for the robotic fish is presented, where the flexible fin is modeled as multiple rigid elements connected via torsional springs and dampers. Blade element theory is used to capture the hydrodynamic force on the fin. The model is validated with experimental results obtained on a robotic fish prototype, equipped with 3D-printed fins of different flexibility. The model is then used to analyze the impacts of fin flexibility and power/recovery stroke speed ratio on the robot swimming speed and mechanical efficiency. It is found that, in general, flexible fins demonstrate advantages over rigid fins in speed and efficiency at relatively low fin-beat frequencies, while rigid fins outperform flexible fins at higher frequencies. For a given fin flexibility, the optimal frequency for speed performance differs from the optimal frequency for mechanical efficiency. In addition, for any given fin, there is an optimal power/recovery stroke speed ratio, typically in the range of 2–3, that maximizes the speed performance. Overall, the presented model offers a promising tool for fin flexibility and gait design, to achieve speed and efficiency objectives for robotic fish actuated with pectoral fins.     

纵向非均质性对海上稠油油田水驱油开发效果的影响研究

为兼顾生产成本与开发效果,海上稠油油田开发大多采用多层合采,层内和层间的差异对水驱开发效果影响显著,针对纵向非均质严重的问题,基于不同渗透率级差、不同平均渗透率,建立了反韵律下9种非均质物理模型,研究层内和层间非均质性对海上稠油油田水驱开发效果的影响.研究结果表明:对于层内非均质模型,渗透率级差对开发效果影响更大,平均渗透率相近时,级差越大,层内非均质性越强,注入水沿高渗透层突进,油层下部驱替效果越差,采出程度越低;层内均质层间非均质时,级差越大采出程度越低,高渗层段注入水形成优势通道抑制低渗透层吸水,高渗透层最高采收率达77.4%,低渗层采收率可低至0.7%,使油层上下部驱替效果相差较大;层内和层间都非均质时,分层开采的开发效果好于多层合采,各层采收率变化幅度与分层开采时差异较大;利用综合影响因子表征层内和层间非均质性的综合影响,其值为0.08时对应采出程度为41.48%,综合影响因子越高,纵向非均质性越强,采出程度越低.     

缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏注水驱油提高采收率研究

Y油田为缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏,油藏复杂的地质特征决定了其开发模式有别于常规砂岩油藏.为了有效提高Y油田采收率,利用Eclipse数值模拟软件建立了地质模型,对水平井长度、射孔间距及酸压缝长等油藏产能影响因素与转注时机、注采比以及关井时间等注采参数进行了优化.结果认为:对于Y缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏,水平井水平段长度为500m、射孔间距为20m或酸压规模为100m时,累计产油量可达到最大值;压力降至废弃压力时进行转注,可获得最大采收率;周期注采比等于1时,周期时效与累计增油量达到最大值;关井时间为8天时,采收率提高幅度最大.     

Robust Group Synchronization via Cycle-Edge Message Passing

We propose a general framework for solving the group synchronization problem, where we focus on the setting of adversarial or uniform corruption and sufficiently small noise. Specifically, we apply a novel message passing procedure that uses cycle consistency information in order to estimate the corruption levels of group ratios and consequently solve the synchronization problem in our setting. We first explain why the group cycle consistency information is essential for effectively solving group synchronization problems. We then establish exact recovery and linear convergence guarantees for the proposed message passing procedure under a deterministic setting with adversarial corruption. These guarantees hold as long as the ratio of corrupted cycles per edge is bounded by a reasonable constant. We also establish the stability of the proposed procedure to sub-Gaussian noise. We further establish exact recovery with high probability under a common uniform corruption model.

     

Predicting bank loan recovery rates with a mixed continuous‐discrete model

To represent the high concentration of recovery rates at the boundaries, we propose to consider the recovery rate as a mixed random variable, obtained as the mixture of a Bernoulli random variable and a beta random variable. We suggest to estimate the mixture weights and the Bernoulli parameter by two logistic regression models. For the recovery rates belonging to the interval (0,1), we model, jointly, the mean and the dispersion by using two link functions, so we propose the joint beta regression model that accommodates skewness and heteroscedastic errors. This methodological proposal is applied to a comprehensive survey on loan recovery process of Italian banks. In the regression model, we include some macroeconomic variables because they are relevant to explain the recovery rate and allow to estimate it in downturn conditions, as Basel II requires. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A West Nile Virus Model with Vertical Transmission and Periodic Time Delays

Seasonal change has played a critical role in the evolution dynamics of West Nile virus transmission. In this paper, we formulate and analyze a novel delay differential equation model, which incorporates seasonality, the vertical transmission of the virus, the temperature-dependent maturation delay and the temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation period in mosquitoes. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio $$R_0$$ for this model and then show that the disease is uniformly persistent if $$R_0>1$$. It is also shown that the disease-free periodic solution is attractive if $$R_0<1$$, provided that there is only a small invasion. In the case where all coefficients are constants and the disease-induced death rate of birds is zero, we establish a threshold result on the global attractivity in terms of $$R_0$$. Numerically, we study the West Nile virus transmission in Orange County, California, USA.     

特高含水期井震结合注采系统挖潜调整研究

进入特高含水期后,开展注采系统调整挖潜剩余油是油田持续稳产的关键.为了提高特高含水阶段油田采收率,提出井震结合方法精细标定构造层位、认识储层特征,构建地质模型并数值模拟剩余油分布,针对剩余油应用井震结合解释成果设计注采系统调整方案并优化相应注水强度.实验区块研究结果表明:特高含水期,采用井震结合注采系统调整方法最终产油量和采收率分别提高31.21×10~4t和1.54%,能够达到有效挖潜剩余油的目的;而改变注水强度对最终开发效果影响显著,随着注水强度增加,采收率先增大后减小,存在最佳的注水强度为9m~3/d·m.     

Predator invasion in predator–prey model with prey-taxis in spatially heterogeneous environment

We consider a predator–prey model with prey-taxis and Holling-type II functional responses in a spatially heterogeneous environment to analyze the effects of prey-taxis and the heterogeneity of an environment on predator invasion. To achieve our goal, we investigate the stability of semi-trivial solution in which the predator is absent. It is known that both the predator diffusion and the death rate contribute to the predator invasion in a heterogeneous habitat when there is no prey-taxis. In this paper, we show that predator invasion is affected by the prey-taxis and diffusions of the prey-taxis model for a certain range of predator death rates in a heterogeneous environment. Furthermore, in cases where predator invasion by predator diffusion does not occur in a particular death rate range of the predator, predator invasion can occur by prey-taxis in a spatially heterogeneous habitat. In addition, we compare this phenomenon to the corresponding predator–prey model with ratio-dependent functional responses. It is observed that none of the predator’s diffusion and prey-taxis affect the predator’s invasion, and that only the predator’s death rate contributes to predator invasion for the model with ratio-dependent functional responses.     

Birth-pulse models of Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility in mosquitoes for dengue virus control

Dengue fever, which affects more than 50 million people a year, is the most important arboviral disease in tropical countries. Mosquitoes are the principal vectors of the dengue virus but some endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria can stop the mosquitoes from reproducing and so interrupt virus transmission. A birth-pulse model of the spread of Wolbachia through a population of mosquitoes, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and different density dependent death rate functions, is proposed. Strategies for either eradicating mosquitoes or using population replacement by substituting uninfected mosquitoes with infected ones for dengue virus prevention were modeled. A model with a strong density dependent death function shows that population replacement can be realized if the initial ratio of number of infected to the total number of mosquitoes exceeds a critical value, especially when transmission from mother to offspring is perfect. However, with a weak density dependent death function, population eradication becomes difficult as the system’s solutions are sensitive to initial values. Using numerical methods, it was shown that population eradication may be achieved regardless of the infection ratio only when parameters lie in particular regions and the initial density of uninfected is low enough.