Periodic maintenance and repair rate control in stochastic manufacturing systems

In this paper, we consider a periodic preventive maintenance, repair, and production model of a flexible manufacturing system with failure-prone machines, where the control variables are the repair rate and production rate. We use periodic preventive maintenance to reduce the machine failure rates and improve the productivity of the system. One of the distinct features of the model is that the repair rate is adjustable. Our objective is to choose a control process that minimizes the total cost of inventory/shortage, production, repair, and maintenance. Under suitable conditions, we show that the value function is locally Lipschitz and satisfies an Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. A sufficient condition for optimal control is obtained. Since analytic solutions are rarely available, we design an algorithm to approximate the optimal control problem. To demonstrate the performance of the numerical method, an example is presented.Research of this author was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant OGP0036444.Research of this author was supported in part by the University of Georgia.Research of this author was supported in part by the National Science Foundation, Grant DMS-92-24372.     

Convexity properties,moment inequalities and asymptotic exponential approximations for delay distributions in G1/G/1 systems

Pollaczek distributions pervade the class of delay distibutions in G1/G/1 systems with concave service time distributions. When the service time distribution has finite support and the delay distribution is absolutely continuous on (0, ∞), one can find a distribution with a pure exponential tail that satisfies the corresponding Wiener-Hopf integral equation except for values of the argument that belong to the support in question or to a translate thereof. Again for an exponentially decaying delay distribution, one can formulate sufficient moment inequalities which ensure the existence of asymptotic upper and lower bounds derived from M/D/1 and M/M/1 delay distributions which agree with the former in terms of the first two moments.     

On the time to first failure in multicomponent exponential reliability systems

Consider an n-component reliability system having the property that at any time each of its components is either up (i.e., working) or down (i.e., being repaired). Each component acts independently and we suppose that each time the i^th component goes up it remains up for an exponentially distributed time having mean μ_i, and each time it goes down it remains down for an exponentially distributed time having mean υ_i. We further suppose that whether or not the system itself is up at any time depends only on which components are up at that time. We are interested in the distribution of the time of first system failure when all components are initially up at time zero. In section 2 we show that this distribution has the NBU (i.e., new better than used) property, and in Section 3 we make use of this and other results to obtain a lower bound to the mean time until first system failure.     

On two families of bivariate distributions with exponential marginals: Aggregation and capital allocation

In this paper, we consider two main families of bivariate distributions with exponential marginals for a couple of random variables $(X_1,X_2)$. More specifically, we derive closed-form expressions for the distribution of the sum $S=X_1+X_2$, the TVaR of $S$ and the contributions of each risk under the TVaR-based allocation rule. The first family considered is a subset of the class of bivariate combinations of exponentials, more precisely, bivariate combinations of exponentials with exponential marginals. We show that several well-known bivariate exponential distributions are special cases of this family. The second family we investigate is a subset of the class of bivariate mixed Erlang distributions, namely bivariate mixed Erlang distributions with exponential marginals. For this second class of distributions, we propose a method based on the compound geometric representation of the exponential distribution to construct bivariate mixed Erlang distributions with exponential marginals. Notably, we show that this method not only leads to Moran–Downton’s bivariate exponential distribution, but also to a generalization of this bivariate distribution. Moreover, we also propose a method to construct bivariate mixed Erlang distributions with exponential marginals from any absolutely continuous bivariate distributions with exponential marginals. Inspired from Lee and Lin (2012), we show that the resulting bivariate distribution approximates the initial bivariate distribution and we highlight the advantages of such an approximation.     

Approximating queue size and waiting time distributions in general polling systems

Polling system models are extensively used to model a large variety of computer and communication networks as well as production and service systems in which multiple customer classes or a number of distinct items compete for the capacity of a common server or production facility. In this paper we describe an efficient approximation method for the steady state distributions of the queue sizes and waiting times. This method is highly accurate as demonstrated by an extensive numerical study. In addition, it is highly adaptable to a variety of arrival patterns and switching protocols, including exhaustive and gated regimes, simple cyclical systems as well as general polling tables. For a system withN stations, one finds the firstK probability density function values of the steady state queue size in any given station inO(max(N, K ²) time only. When executed on an IBM system RS/6000, we have observed an average CPU time of less than 1 second for systems with as many as 50 stations over a large variety of parameter settings.     

On some functionals of the first passage times in jump models of stochastic volatility

Abstract

We compute some functionals related to the generalized joint Laplace transforms of the first times at which two-dimensional jump processes exit half strips. It is assumed that the state space components are driven by Cox processes with both independent and common (positive) exponential jump components. The method of proof is based on the solutions of the equivalent partial integro-differential boundary-value problems for the associated value functions. The results are illustrated on several two-dimensional jump models of stochastic volatility which are based on non-affine analogs of certain mean-reverting or diverting diffusion processes representing closed-form solutions of the appropriate stochastic differential equations.     

Generalized mixtures in reliability modelling: Applications to the construction of bathtub shaped hazard models and the study of systems

In this paper, we obtain and discuss some general properties of hazard rate (HR) functions constructed via generalized mixtures of two members. These results are applied to determine the shape of generalized mixtures of an increasing hazard rate (IHR) model and an exponential model. In addition, we note that these kind of generalized mixtures can be used to construct bathtub‐shaped HR models. As examples, we study in detail two cases: when the IHR model chosen is a linear HR function and when the IHR model is the extended exponential‐geometric distribution. Finally, we apply the results and show the utility of generalized mixtures in determining the shape of the HR function of different systems, such as mixed systems or consecutive k‐out‐of‐n systems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lifetime distribution and estimation problems of consecutive-k-out-of-n:F systems

Explicit formula is given for the lifetime distribution of a consecutive-k-out-of-n:F system. It is given as a linear combination of distributions of order statistics of the lifetimes of n components. We assume that the lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. The results should make it possible to treat the parametric estimation problems based on the observations of the lifetimes of the system. In fact, we take up, as some examples, the cases where the lifetimes of the components follow the exponential, the Weibull, and the Pareto distributions, and obtain feasible estimators by moment method. In particular, it is shown that the moment estimator is quite good for the exponential case in the sense that the asymptotic efficiency is close to one.This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (94-ISM-CRP-5).     

On areas of attraction and repulsion in finite time dynamical systems and their numerical approximation

ABSTRACT

Stable and unstable fibre bundles with respect to a fixed point or a bounded trajectory are of great dynamical relevance in (non)autonomous dynamical systems. These sets are defined via an infinite limit process. However, the dynamics of several real world models are of interest on a short time interval only. This task requires finite time concepts of attraction and repulsion that have been recently developed in the literature. The main idea consists in replacing the infinite limit process by a monotonicity criterion and in demanding the end points to lie in a small neighbourhood of the reference trajectory. Finite time areas of attraction and repulsion defined in this way are fat sets and their dimension equals the dimension of the state space. We propose an algorithm for the numerical approximation of these sets and illustrate its application to several two- and three-dimensional dynamical systems in discrete and continuous time. Intersections of areas of attraction and repulsion are also calculated, resulting in finite time homoclinic orbits.     

Spreading and generalized propagating speeds of discrete KPP models in time varying environments

The current paper deals with spatial spreading and front propagating dynamics for spatially discrete KPP (Kolmogorov, Petrovsky and Paskunov) models in time recurrent environments, which include time periodic and almost periodic environments as special cases. The notions of spreading speed interval, generalized propagating speed interval, and traveling wave solutions are first introduced, which are proper modifications of those introduced for spatially continuous KPP models in time almost periodic environments. Among others, it is then shown that the spreading speed interval in a given direction is the minimal generalized propagating speed interval in that direction. Some important upper and lower bounds for the spreading and generalized propagating speed intervals are provided. When the environment is unique ergodic and the so called linear determinacy condition is satisfied, it is shown that the spreading speed interval in any direction is a singleton (called the spreading speed), which equals the classical spreading speed if the environment is actually periodic. Moreover, in such a case, a variational principle for the spreading speed is established and it is shown that there is a front of speed c in a given direction if and only if c is greater than or equal to the spreading speed in that direction.