序贯抽样在计算机辅助电话调查中的应用

样本量的确定是抽样设计中的关键问题,传统方法利用总体方差和调查费用的有关信息来确定样本量可能产生两种结果,一种是样本量过低,无法保证希望的估计精度要求;一种是样本量过高,导致调查经费的浪费。计算机辅助电话调查中即时的数据运算和管理功能为序贯抽样的应用奠定了基础。利用前期抽取样本的计算结果,可以规定进一步需抽取的样本量,最终样本量是对真正期望样本量的一个最佳近似,它比传统方法更能保证以最少的费用满足预先设定的精度要求。     

���ڳ�����α�������������ĺ�ѡ�����ݿ����������ƶ��о�

??How to solve the inference problem of candidate database web surveys is an urgent problem to be solved in the development of web survey. In order to solve this problem, the inference method of non-probability sampling based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is proposed. A superpopulation model is firstly built up to construct pseudo weights for a survey sample of the web candidate database. The estimator of the population mean is then computed according to the combined sample composed of the survey sample of the web candidate database and a probability sample. The variance estimator of the population mean estimator is lastly derived according to the variance estimation theory of the superpopulation model. The Bootstrap and Jackknife methods are also used to compute the variance estimator. And all these variance estimation methods are compared. The research results show that the population mean estimator based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is better, and has higher efficiency than the estimator only using the probability sample and the weighted estimator only using the survey sample of the web candidate database. The variance estimator computed by using the VM1, VM2 and VM3 method are relatively better.     

Research on Inference of Candidate Database Web Surveys Based on Superpopulation Pseudo Design and the Combined Sample

How to solve the inference problem of candidate database web surveys is an urgent problem to be solved in the development of web survey. In order to solve this problem, the inference method of non-probability sampling based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is proposed. A superpopulation model is firstly built up to construct pseudo weights for a survey sample of the web candidate database. The estimator of the population mean is then computed according to the combined sample composed of the survey sample of the web candidate database and a probability sample. The variance estimator of the population mean estimator is lastly derived according to the variance estimation theory of the superpopulation model. The Bootstrap and Jackknife methods are also used to compute the variance estimator. And all these variance estimation methods are compared. The research results show that the population mean estimator based on superpopulation pseudo design and the combined sample is better, and has higher efficiency than the estimator only using the probability sample and the weighted estimator only using the survey sample of the web candidate database. The variance estimator computed by using the VM1, VM2 and VM3 method are relatively better.     

On interval estimation of the coefficient of variation for the three-parameter Weibull,lognormal and gamma distribution: A simulation-based approach

The coefficient of variation (CV) of a population is defined as the ratio of the population standard deviation to the population mean. It is regarded as a measure of stability or uncertainty, and can indicate the relative dispersion of data in the population to the population mean. CV is a dimensionless measure of scatter or dispersion and is readily interpretable, as opposed to other commonly used measures such as standard deviation, mean absolute deviation or error factor, which are only interpretable for the lognormal distribution. CV is often estimated by the ratio of the sample standard deviation to the sample mean, called the sample CV. Even for the normal distribution, the exact distribution of the sample CV is difficult to obtain, and hence it is difficult to draw inferences regarding the population CV in the frequentist frame. Different methods of estimating the sample standard deviation as well as the sample mean result in different shapes of the sampling distribution of the sample CV, from which inferences about the population CV can be made. In this paper we propose a simulation-based Bayesian approach to tackle this problem. A set of real data is used to generate the sampling distribution of the CV under the assumption that the data follow the three-parameter Gamma distribution. A probability interval is then constructed. The method also applies easily to lognormal and Weibull distributions.     

事后分层方法及其在交通运输抽样调查中的应用

本文介绍事后分层技术，说明了它不仅可用于简单随机抽样，而且可以用于放回ＰＰＳ抽样。给出了事后分层估计量的形式，证明了它的无编性，并给出了它在交通运输抽样调查中的应用。     

批发零售贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查方案及数据处理方法

本文介绍我国批发零售贸易业、餐饮业调查的抽样方案,方案以省为总体,区县为初级抽样单元,为满足对部分地市(域)估计的需要,对区县的抽样考虑了不放回样本追加。文中也给出了与抽样方案配套的总体和域目标量的估计及相应的方差估计公式。     

全国科技人员流动情况抽样调查的设计与分析

为了对近年来我国科技人员流动趋势及其效果进行定量分析,由原国家科委科技干部局主持,从1987年6月开始,对全国科学研究开发机构(研究所)、高等院校及大中企业中的科技人员,在1984年1月1日至1987年5月31日期间的流动情况进行了抽样调查.调查内容包括各单位流动人数(分年度及总数)、流向、流动原因及其流动人员的组成结构等基本情况.受主持单位委托,我们承担了此项调查的抽样设计,实施了抽样,并按调查目标量的类型提出了与抽样方案相配套的数据处理公式,包括对各层及总体目标量的估计以及这些估计量的精度.调查结果的报告见[1],其中主要内容已见报(见《光明日报》1987年12月28日第一版).     

关于我国2010年人口普查事后质量检查样本量测算的建议

同以往历次进行的人口普查一样,我国在2010年第六次人口普查后也将进行事后质量检查。样本量估计是抽取事后质量检查样本之前必须要做的一项工作。本人建议,用2000年人口普查事后质量检查样本资料估计其抽样方案的设计效应,然后用这个设计效应估计2010年在既定精度要求下所需要的样本量。     

Model-based design in small area estimation

In this paper, we address the problem of an efficient estimation strategy when solving real survey sampling problems. We consider the panel data model with random effects as a superpopulation model. We investigate the performance of model-assisted estimators under model-based sample designs in a simulation experiment based on the real data (Lithuanian survey on short-term statistics on service) taken as a true population. Here the model-based sampling refers to a sample design constructed using the model and information about the behavior of the model-assisted estimator on available auxiliary data.     

交互作用偏差对双系统估计量的影响

虽然双系统估计量目前是人口普查质量评估领域估计总体实际人口数的主要方法,但其内在固有的缺陷却依然存在,即由于人口普查与其质量评估调查不独立引起的交互作用偏差使其低估或高估人口数。独立性假设失败源于在普查及其质量评估调查中登记的因果相关性,以及在普查及质量评估调查中登记概率的异质性。Bell模型是当前公认的测算交互作用偏差的有效方法。该方法建立在0-17岁及成年女性的双系统估计值不存在交互作用偏差的假设条件下。利用美国普查局提供的2010年资料全面展示了双系统估计量交互作用偏差的测算过程。实证结果表明,黑人成年男性的双系统估计值存在显著的交互作用偏差。研究有助于我国在未来人口普查质量评估工作中意识到交互作用偏差的存在,把测算的交互作用偏差添加到双系统估计量估计的人口数中,并依据修正后的双系统估计值计算人口普查净误差。     

The design and data processing of the Sampling Survey of Children's situation in China, 1987

In July of 1987, the Sampling Survey of Children's Situation was conducted in 9 provinces/autonomous regions of China. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling plan was designed for the survey. The paper presents the methods of stratification, selectingn=2 PSU's (cities/counties) with unequal probabilities without replacement in each stratum and selecting residents/village committees in each sampled city/county. All formulae of estimating population characteristics (especially population totals and the ratios of two totals), and estimating variances of those estimators are given. Finally, we analyse the precision of the survey preliminarily from the results of data processing.Supported partially by the National Funds of Natural Sciences, 7860013.     

PPS抽样──一种有效的水路运输量抽样方法

本文针对水运运输特点，通过对实际资料的分析和计算，对水运运输量的抽样方法作分析比较，提出利用ＰＰＳ抽样进行我国水路运输量的抽样抽查。     

Confident estimation for density of a biological population based on line transect sampling

Line transect sampling is a very useful method in survey of wildlife population. Confident interval estimation for density D of a biological population is proposed based on a sequential design. The survey area is occupied by the population whose size is unknown. A stopping rule is proposed by a kernel-based estimator of density function of the perpendicular data at a distance. With this stopping rule, we construct several confidence intervals for D by difference procedures. Some bias reduction techniques are used to modify the confidence intervals. These intervals provide the desired coverage probability as the bandwidth in the stopping rule approaches zero. A simulation study is also given to illustrate the performance of this proposed sequential kernel procedure.     

The Pathmox approach for PLS path modeling segmentation

Modeling has often failed to meet expectations, mostly because of the difficulty of comprehending relationships within phenomena and expressing them in mathematical models. Reality is frequently too complex to be reflected in a single model. This is often the case of marketing research, where variables relating to socioeconomics or psychographics constitute potential sources of heterogeneity. In such cases, the assumption of ‘one model fits all’ is unrealistic and may lead to inaccurate decisions. Thus, heterogeneity is a major issue in modeling. Once a model has been fitted to a complete data set that fulfills all validation criteria, it is difficult to establish whether it is valid for the whole population or it is merely an average artifact from several sub‐populations. The purpose of this paper is to present the Pathmox approach to deal with heterogeneity in partial least squares path modeling. The idea behind Pathmox is to build a tree of path models that have look‐alike structure as a binary decision tree, with different models for each of its nodes. The split criterion consists of an F statistic comparing two structural models. In order to ensure the suitability of the split criterion, a simulation study was conducted. Finally, we have applied Pathmox to a survey that measured Satisfaction among Spanish mobile phone operators. Results suggest that the Pathmox approach performs adequately in detecting partial least squares path modeling heterogeneity. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The exact bootstrap method shown on the example of the mean and variance estimation

The bootstrap method is based on resampling of the original randomsample drawn from a population with an unknown distribution. In the article it was shown that because of the progress in computer technology resampling is actually unnecessary if the sample size is not too large. It is possible to automatically generate all possible resamples and calculate all realizations of the required statistic. The obtained distribution can be used in point or interval estimation of population parameters or in testing hypotheses. We should stress that in the exact bootstrap method the entire space of resamples is used and therefore there is no additional bias which results from resampling. The method was used to estimate mean and variance. The comparison of the obtained distributions with the limit distributions confirmed the accuracy of the exact bootstrap method. In order to compare the exact bootstrap method with the basic method (with random sampling) probability that 1,000 resamples would allow for estimating a parameter with a given accuracy was calculated. There is little chance of obtaining the desired accuracy, which is an argument supporting the use of the exact method. Random sampling may be interpreted as discretization of a continuous variable.     

连续性抽样调查理论研究综述

从国外近60多年来的理论及其应用研究情况来看,连续性抽样调查是一个具有极大理论研究价值的新领域,在我国也具有广阔的应用价值。本文选择连续性抽样调查作为研究对象,对国内外已有的相关研究成果进行理论化、系统化的研究综述,并重点总结了各类连续性抽样设计与抽样估计方法,进一步归纳出存在的问题及未来继续研究的新趋势,另外也为该理论在我国实际调查中的应用研究奠定扎实的理论基础,使我国统计调查工作少走弯路,尽快与国外统计调查工作接轨。     

长沙市规模以下零售业抽样调查方案

本文介绍了一个根据具体城市情况制定的零售贸易餐饮业的抽样调查方案.以长沙市规模以下零售业、餐饮业为总体,用区域抽样代替一般的名录抽样,并采用细致的分层解决商业单位分布不均匀问题.文中也给出了与抽样方案配套的总体和域目标量的估计及相应的方差估计公式.     

单纯随机抽样理论之我见

针对一般经济统计教材中普遍存在的关于单纯随机抽样过程中,不同抽样方法下样本方差的无偏性问题提出自己的见解.认为,抽样理论源于实践,重复抽样时有Nn个样本、不重复抽样时有CnN个样本是实际抽样调查工作中普遍采用的方式、方法,更是单纯随机抽样推断理论的源泉.在此基础上数学界将实际工作中各种可能始点的抽样方法赋予理性思考、研究,获得结论:无限制抽样和简单随机抽样条件下样本方差是总体方差的无偏估计量.     

On Random Sampling Without Replacement from a Finite Population

We consider the three progressively more general sampling schemes without replacement from a finite population: simple random sampling without replacement, Midzuno sampling and successive sampling. We (i) obtain a lower bound on the expected sample coverage of a successive sample, (ii) show that the vector of first order inclusion probabilities divided by the sample size is majorized by the vector of selection probabilities of a successive sample, and (iii) partially order the vectors of first order inclusion probabilities for the three sampling schemes by majorization. We also show that the probability of an ordered successive sample enjoys the arrangement increasing property and for sample size two the expected sample coverage of a successive sample is Schur convex in its selection probabilities. We also study the spacings of a simple random sample from a linearly ordered finite population and characterize in several ways a simple random sample.     

基于轮换样本连续性调查的校准组合估计方法研究

校准估计是抽样调查中比较常用的一种利用辅助信息提高估计量精度的方法。回归组合估计量作为轮换样本连续性调查中使用的一种有效的估计量,是可以通过校准程序得到的。基于回归组合估计量和校准程序之间的关系,本文提出了轮换样本连续性抽样调查条件下的不同校准组合估计量及其方差估计。校准组合估计量的主要思想是在校准估计程序中将拼配样本和非拼配样本的辅助信息进行不同的组合利用。本文利用美国现时人口调查的微观数据进行数值模拟,来比较不同校准组合估计量的估计效率,模拟结果表明两步校准组合估计量和两步校准双组合估计量的表现相似,且估计精度都高于H-T估计量及回归组合估计量;而两步校准组合估计量由于其简便性更适合应用于实践中。最后以我国农村住户连续性抽样调查为例,设计一套符合我国实际的轮换样本连续性调查方案,并将提出的校准组合估计量运用于估计阶段,为中国政府统计调查提供一定的借鉴和参考.